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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 19, 2024

[ Tuesday, June 18, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, June 20, 2024 ]

DAY 263 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/20/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.99°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.77°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.38°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.714
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 339

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.47 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.31 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 63 in
SWE DAY: 170
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.02 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 28.12 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -23

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-06-20 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024263-2360.9900841.7700451.3800663.041212500.475.315.78TF28.99008338.99008170446.01631277974 28.1174091524140.7135466714512116 4122127WETL
2024-06-20 00:00:01FORECAST2024263-2256.4835.92446.20270.156869600.475.315.78TF24.48334.48171449.3025096923131.5216575834360.54537776820972163122126WETL
2024-06-19 12:00:01FORECAST2024263-2256.67835.63646.15772.157755200.475.315.78TF24.678334.678171450.0558033672432.4750164857130.55319488996569163122126WETL
2024-06-19 08:00:02FORECAST2024263-2256.71435.45646.08572.139354400.475.315.78TF24.714334.714171450.0488932589732.4662366081360.55461405767038163122126WETL
2024-06-19 04:00:03FORECAST2024263-2256.58835.99646.29272.31040788333300.475.315.78TF24.588334.588171450.1131170410432.5478630868760.5496440284251163122126WETL
2024-06-19 00:00:02FORECAST2024263-2357.4735.76246.61673.12903103683200.465.315.77TF25.47331.47170449.8586016576532.8977236428080.58422761968996163122126WETL
2024-06-18 20:00:01FORECAST2024263-2357.2935.45646.37375.067325600.465.315.77TF25.29332.29170450.5856579498533.8242602960120.57721349513221163122126WETL
2024-06-18 16:00:01FORECAST2024263-2357.235.90646.55375.02019200.465.315.77TF25.2332.2170450.5680205177133.8016994082980.57369708584564163122126WETL
2024-06-18 12:00:01FORECAST2024263-2357.23637.83247.53473.9037352054890.0027559070.4627559075.315.772755907TF25.236332.236170450.1496234874633.2677385770670.57510436903082163122126WETL
2024-06-18 08:00:01FORECAST2024263-2357.21837.79647.50773.938553227630.0149606380.4749606385.315.784960638TF25.218331.218170450.1626896244133.2843779878880.57440084589373163122126WETL
2024-06-18 04:00:03FORECAST2024263-2357.45237.95847.70574.42357401530800.465.315.77TF25.452332.452170450.344582952733.5162534017730.58352737442293163122126WETL
2024-06-18 00:00:02FORECAST2024263-2356.73237.52647.12975.919284717900.145.315.45TF24.732332.732170450.9040980013934.2323165966360.55532338034477163122126WETL
2024-06-17 20:00:01FORECAST2024263-2356.60637.41847.01276.03860715943500.215.315.52TF24.606330.606170450.9486426219834.2895066854130.55035452799961163122126WETL
2024-06-17 16:00:01FORECAST2024263-2356.42636.69846.56276.09301659234200.215.315.52TF24.426330.426170450.9689498903734.3155877866390.54324264225771163122126WETL
2024-06-17 12:00:01FORECAST2024263-2355.83237.50846.6776.03778993728500.25.315.51TF23.832329.832170450.9483375882334.2891149661010.51968734050024163122126WETL
2024-06-17 08:00:02FORECAST2024263-2356.0337.83246.93175.97234262378100.145.315.45TF24.03329.03170450.9239068751934.2577455503760.52755084543757163122126WETL
2024-06-17 04:00:04FORECAST2024263-2355.99437.99446.99476.0126833755070.0027559070.1827559075.315.492755907TF23.994328.994170450.938966083934.2770808506140.52612182553632163122126WETL
2024-06-17 00:00:02FORECAST2024263-2356.26438.7547.50775.0312518475330.0011811030.1511811035.185.331181103TF24.264327.264170450.5721593114233.8069931607820.53683001506028163122126WETL
2024-06-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024263-2357.39837.81447.60675.202224593390.0015748040.1915748045.215.401574804TF25.398330.398170450.6361255965533.8888391270070.58142505642342163122126WETL
2024-06-16 16:00:01FORECAST2024263-2357.8337.61647.72375.0547656759290.0015748040.1715748045.215.381574804TF25.83330.83170450.5809582222333.8182482374050.59817354806163122126WETL
2024-06-16 12:00:02FORECAST2024263-2357.45237.14847.374.956135354240.0055118140.1655118145.215.375511814TF25.452331.452170450.5440470827333.771040576180.58352737442293163122126WETL
2024-06-16 08:00:01FORECAST2024263-2355.25637.05846.15775.0123721983020.0007874020.1507874025.175.320787402TF23.256328.256170450.5650941372133.7979565409830.49677917432589162122125WETL
2024-06-16 04:00:04FORECAST2024263-2357.237.14847.17475.00810722014100.155.165.31TF25.2331.2170450.5634980429733.7959151706890.57369708584564163122126WETL
2024-06-16 00:00:03FORECAST2024263-2355.59837.20246.467.37245000189600.175.025.19TF23.598325.598170447.6780797629530.1611690457740.51038445938515163122126WETL
2024-06-15 20:00:02FORECAST2024263-2355.16637.63446.462.98055583212300.165.035.19TF23.166327.166170445.9929105707628.0888814049330.49319881275969162122125WETL
2024-06-15 16:00:02FORECAST2024263-2354.98639.1147.04862.94689832903200.185.025.2TF22.986326.986170445.9799234697728.0730528994410.48604002132657162122125WETL
2024-06-15 12:00:02FORECAST2024263-2355.77838.96647.37265.03129605095400.155.085.23TF23.778330.778170446.782119163529.0548202615940.51754128849661163122126WETL
2024-06-15 08:00:02FORECAST2024263-2356.19239.39847.79564.92648307824100.15.165.26TF24.192333.192170446.7418824573529.0053792717090.5339767832531163122126WETL
2024-06-15 04:00:04FORECAST2024263-2355.4939.07447.28264.26927432686300.0855.08TF23.49330.49170446.4893419400328.6955460011640.50608860869472163121123WETL
2024-06-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024263-2355.74239.7447.74122.22123509806400.044.874.91TF23.742333.742170429.423250541169.54231500684980.51611030089616163121226WETL
2024-06-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024263-2357.16439.45248.30823.45970054407600.034.94.93TF25.164337.164170429.952395525510.0865544472360.57228886377002163121123WETL
2024-06-14 16:00:02FORECAST2024263-2355.8540.56848.20923.3845474729840.0023622060.0623622064.94.962362206TF23.85334.85170429.9203331486410.0534924401160.52040256746173163121123WETL
2024-06-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024263-2355.70639.97447.8422.7078494042560.0023622060.0623622064.864.922362206TF23.706333.706170429.63135922279.75600420457470.51467910576214163121226WETL
2024-06-14 08:00:02FORECAST2024263-2354.96839.7447.35422.88451031568200.074.854.92TF22.968333.968170429.706847573189.83363078600780.48532435146731162121225WETL
2024-06-14 04:00:05FORECAST2024263-2355.54438.85847.20122.89802473904700.14.894.99TF23.544330.544170429.71262097919.83957022586030.508236653456011631222212WETL
2024-06-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024263-2355.05839.86647.46251.77519782533200.134.895.02TF23.058326.058170441.6072752659822.8643040380020.4889031273716162122125WETL
2024-06-13 20:00:02FORECAST2024263-2354.75239.09246.92255.6913326013700.244.875.11TF22.752324.752170443.154209817324.6798484926330.47674065820901162122125WETL
2024-06-13 16:00:02FORECAST2024263-2354.57238.33646.45455.7149436822780.0098425250.2498425254.835.079842525TF22.572325.572170443.1634899760624.6908288860580.46959564620322162122125WETL
2024-06-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024263-2354.2335.90645.06854.6337643791890.0051181130.2851181134.915.195118113TF22.23325.23170442.7379692653224.1884418945620.45604894583752162122125WETL
2024-06-13 08:00:03FORECAST2024263-2353.54635.49244.51954.8345264712320.0051181130.3251181134.925.245118113TF21.546324.546170442.8170717559124.2816644431130.42912368449586162122125WETL
2024-06-13 04:00:05FORECAST2024263-2353.94236.2345.08654.1292486422340.0051181130.3251181134.995.315118113TF21.942324.942170442.5390063268723.9543039073540.44468004591089162122125WETL
2024-06-13 00:00:03FORECAST2024263-2354.15835.72644.94260.7675338707310.0059055150.1659055154.814.975905515TF22.158327.158170445.1366249406927.0498549331860.45320297435997162122125WETL
2024-06-12 20:00:04FORECAST2024263-2356.28237.4946.88662.2909013890380.0070866180.0770866184.84.877086618TF24.282329.282170445.7265783349427.7647103375350.53754303287106163121123WETL
2024-06-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024263-2356.5737.11246.84163.2406142459260.0066929170.0766929174.824.896692917TF24.57323.57170446.0932194181628.2112092069470.54893336972079163121123WETL
2024-06-12 12:00:03FORECAST2024263-2354.57238.3946.48161.2114134898330.07874020.11874024.634.7487402TF22.572326.572170445.3087615981427.2579787368290.46959564620322162122125WETL
2024-06-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024263-2356.13842.29649.21760.4292500965120.0066929170.0366929174.654.686692917TF24.138328.138170445.005308009826.8913370519990.53183570466407163121123WETL
2024-06-12 04:00:04FORECAST2024263-2357.34439.93848.64160.39610211142200.124.744.86TF25.344331.344170444.9924343643926.8758085046820.57932041049414163122126WETL
2024-06-12 00:00:03FORECAST2024263-2355.32835.645.46467.67864400590600.34.845.14TF23.328322.328170447.7948668526630.3061493813930.49964366422743163122126WETL
2024-06-11 20:00:04FORECAST2024263-2351.00836.543.75471.6824591208090.015748040.985748044.925.90574804TF19.008318.008170449.3136536972932.2079076135770.33297466790184162123127.5WETL
2024-06-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024263-2351.09837.63444.36671.143596616370.0704724790.9404724794.925.860472479TF19.098319.098170449.1101427240731.9513108302810.33624310833161162123127.5WETL
2024-06-11 12:00:03FORECAST2024263-2355.70639.50647.60666.9691666605420.4472443360.4872443364.825.307244336TF23.706330.706170447.5241226494629.9703175543250.51467910576214163122126WETL
2024-06-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024263-2355.38239.07447.22866.3276157212910.374015950.434015954.775.20401595TF23.382334.382170447.2788794722229.6669416378830.5017920517862163122126WETL
2024-06-11 04:00:05FORECAST2024263-2348.16438.04843.10665.3830854855640.4480317380.4980317384.685.178031738TF16.164336.164170446.9170895050729.2208182680690.23719146635344161123126WETL
2024-06-11 00:00:03FORECAST2024263-2349.02838.06643.54765.0007076661170.1078740740.4378740744.615.047874074TF17.028334.028170446.7703776795729.040390713430.26461328633178162122125WETL
2024-06-10 20:00:03FORECAST2024263-2345.6835.47440.57770.4559754300830.2122048390.8522048394.685.532204839TF13.68327.68170448.8500455650831.6241677821240.16772633757671161123126WETL
2024-06-10 16:00:04FORECAST2024263-2348.27233.7284170.7462427878280.1602363071.0002363074.565.560236307TF16.272326.272170448.9598964792831.7622258383210.24053171756378161124128WETL
2024-06-10 12:00:03FORECAST2024263-2349.74832.3641.05468.3687553815240.0062992160.3862992164.454.836299216TF17.748323.748170448.0577531011530.6331509185680.28863521307091162122125WETL
2024-06-10 08:00:04FORECAST2024263-2348.57833.29640.93768.7940277060610.003937010.583937014.435.01393701TF16.578319.578170448.2195240656530.834826356970.25013308463199162123127.5WETL
2024-06-10 04:00:07FORECAST2024263-2347.663239.8369.9845870473670.003937010.563937014.424.98393701TF15.66304.66170448.6714772250231.4000880535250.22194502611983161123126WETL
2024-06-10 00:00:05FORECAST2024263-2352.73634.89843.81765.820400062720.0023622060.0423622064.374.412362206TF20.736324.736170447.0847050461829.4272941480630.39766941425802162121122.5WETL
2024-06-09 20:00:03FORECAST2024263-2343.8835.4239.6569.5447111593190.1685040280.2085040284.284.488504028TF11.88318.88170448.5046532938531.1911265669310.12654853287576161122124WETL
2024-06-09 16:00:03FORECAST2024263-2343.8837.50840.69469.543231687010.1996064070.2296064074.484.709606407TF11.88328.88170448.5040918860531.1904239746040.12654853287576161122124WETL
2024-06-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024263-2339.25436.06837.66168.89270846920500.244.674.91TF7.254320.254170448.2570366465330.8816413449590.054225705010381161122124WETL
2024-06-09 08:00:04FORECAST2024263-2341.16236.96839.06567.9130707688960.2523623410.5123623414.75.212362341TF9.162322.162170447.8842194453930.4171926914660.078624909770495161123126WETL
2024-06-09 04:00:06FORECAST2024263-2346.3141.30643.80865.142858268503004.664.66TF14.31366.31170446.8249350734629.1074534163240.18397377868964161121122WETL