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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 20, 2024

[ Wednesday, June 19, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, June 21, 2024 ]

DAY 264 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/21/2024 12:00:01 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.78°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.70°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.24°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.680
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 359

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.08 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.09 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 59 in
SWE DAY: 171
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.44 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 26.09 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -21

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-06-21 00:00:01FORECAST2024264-2160.78241.70251.24258.563714400.014.084.09TF28.782358.782172445.4421967990626.0867495950490.68019363461186163121123WETL
2024-06-20 12:00:02FORECAST2024264-2159.77441.41450.59460.650700.014.084.09TF27.774357.774172446.2482287360727.0652674466030.64254742728992163121123WETL
2024-06-20 08:00:01FORECAST2024264-2159.88241.14450.51360.615866400.014.084.09TF27.882357.882172446.2348103965427.0489096500260.64665605821048163121123WETL
2024-06-20 04:00:03FORECAST2024264-2159.70240.96450.33360.668886900.014.084.09TF27.702357.702172446.2552340862927.0738083253140.63979910133163121123WETL
2024-06-20 00:00:01FORECAST2024264-2260.54839.95650.25267.740952800.014.084.09TF28.548353.548171448.3878482851430.3742200667770.67160077998621163121123WETL
2024-06-19 20:00:02FORECAST2024264-2260.94439.97450.45971.54688800.014.084.09TF28.944354.944171449.8262298569632.1836668870380.68608678301885163121123WETL
2024-06-19 16:00:02FORECAST2024264-2260.76440.53250.64871.482337600.014.084.09TF28.764354.764171449.80194998532.1528948419660.67953598988187163121123WETL
2024-06-19 12:00:02FORECAST2024264-2261.35842.8952.12469.521619200.014.084.09TF29.358355.358171449.0625487490631.2195555111130.70093046783898164121123.5WETL
2024-06-19 08:00:02FORECAST2024264-2260.90842.54851.72869.504202400.014.084.09TF28.908354.908171449.0559642322331.2112766269240.68478121707448163121123WETL
2024-06-19 04:00:03FORECAST2024264-2261.01641.8151.41369.75446788333300.014.084.09TF29.016355.016171449.1505504983731.330257649520.68869093103695163121123WETL
2024-06-19 00:00:02FORECAST2024264-2261.32241.77451.54870.5519350368320.0003937010.0003937014.084.080393701TF29.322351.322171449.4515474629731.7096763788110.69965241527281164121123.5WETL
2024-06-18 20:00:02FORECAST2024264-2260.9841.77451.37772.51364880.0070866180.0070866184.084.087086618TF28.98351.98171450.1893896597432.6448752952730.6873900254794163121123WETL
2024-06-18 16:00:02FORECAST2024264-2260.72842.06251.39572.4653344004.084.08TF28.728351.728171450.1712617116932.6218110172070.67821901083993163121123WETL
2024-06-18 12:00:01FORECAST2024264-2260.76443.30452.03471.3034168054890.0122047310.0122047314.084.092204731TF28.764351.764171449.7346302243632.067615790750.67953598988187163121123WETL
2024-06-18 08:00:01FORECAST2024264-2260.90842.94451.92671.336758827630.0059055150.0159055154.084.095905515TF28.908350.908171449.7471776309632.0835059440670.68478121707448163121123WETL
2024-06-18 04:00:03FORECAST2024264-2261.05243.19652.12471.8026900153080.0003937010.0003937014.084.080393701TF29.052352.052171449.9224076332432.305639166230.68998948635976163121123WETL
2024-06-18 00:00:02FORECAST2024264-2260.76442.83651.873.315915917900.013.753.76TF28.764352.764171450.4900817355133.0280929543680.67953598988187163121123DRYL
2024-06-17 20:00:01FORECAST2024264-2260.63843.03451.83673.44842395943500.023.813.83TF28.638350.638171450.5396872060833.0914299564640.67491678887851163121123DRYL
2024-06-17 16:00:01FORECAST2024264-2259.57642.24250.90973.63911739234200.023.813.83TF27.576348.576171450.6110455586333.1825996821780.63497218653635163121123DRYL
2024-06-17 12:00:02FORECAST2024264-2259.41442.851.10773.52514593728500.013.813.82TF27.414348.414171450.5684010758233.1281074438290.62873469896158163121123DRYL
2024-06-17 08:00:02FORECAST2024264-2259.19843.46651.33273.39662422378100.023.743.76TF27.198347.198171450.5202975384233.0666689836130.62036544958357163121123DRYL
2024-06-17 04:00:04FORECAST2024264-2259.79243.37651.58473.47996577550700.023.783.8TF27.792347.792171450.5514926833533.1065082624760.64323336229443163121123DRYL
2024-06-17 00:00:02FORECAST2024264-2259.91843.64651.78272.42699744753300.013.633.64FF27.918345.918171450.1568757984532.6035108944430.64802184250809163121123DRYL
2024-06-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024264-2260.843.10651.95372.5622509933900.013.73.71FF28.8349.8171450.2076233457632.6680785643530.6808507138341163121123DRYL
2024-06-16 16:00:01FORECAST2024264-2262.16843.30452.73672.26788087592900.013.683.69FF30.168352.168171450.097152446832.5275673956210.72901041607704164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-16 12:00:02FORECAST2024264-2261.77243.2552.51172.2337025542400.023.673.69FF29.772351.772171450.0843206905232.5112569450860.71544730230809164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-16 08:00:02FORECAST2024264-2260.29643.2551.77372.38391139830200.013.623.63FF28.296347.296171450.1407061181632.5829449884260.66224452179279163121123DRYL
2024-06-16 04:00:04FORECAST2024264-2261.03443.80852.42172.29482562014100.013.613.62FF29.034351.034171450.1072676758632.5404264269840.68934050330751163121123DRYL
2024-06-16 00:00:03FORECAST2024264-2261.10642.0851.59364.77518200189600.023.483.5FF29.106346.106171447.2573117480628.9711737701590.69193288370687163121123DRYL
2024-06-15 20:00:02FORECAST2024264-2261.2542.13451.69260.38732223212300.023.483.5FF29.25347.25171445.5689834383626.9067177795320.69708894279859163121123DRYL
2024-06-15 16:00:02FORECAST2024264-2260.27842.81851.54860.36625992903200.013.53.51FF28.278346.278171445.5608337775826.8968411060130.66157228094642163121123DRYL
2024-06-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024264-2261.89843.9752.93462.29252885095400.013.533.54FF29.898351.898171446.3043666957527.8014276387020.71979779013617164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-15 08:00:02FORECAST2024264-2261.3443.752.5262.21772787824100.013.563.57FF29.34353.34171446.2755616273327.7662514520380.70029174983469164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-15 04:00:04FORECAST2024264-2259.12642.31450.7261.76469912686300.013.383.39FF27.126348.126171446.1009880220927.5532933053810.61756290459216163121123DRYL
2024-06-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024264-2258.78441.6350.20719.763990298064003.223.22FF26.784351.784171429.011428596268.47897771253490.60416894371082163121226DRYL
2024-06-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024264-2260.36842.49451.43120.837734144076003.243.24FF28.368356.368171429.47141243518.94921111480340.66492829789343163121226DRYL
2024-06-14 16:00:02FORECAST2024264-2259.41443.39451.40420.76828827298400.013.263.27FF27.414353.414171429.441700272938.91876902770880.62873469896158163121226DRYL
2024-06-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024264-2260.42243.39451.90820.0456374042560.0015748040.0115748043.223.231574804FF28.422353.422171429.13220551288.60222859019810.66693563130047163121226DRYL
2024-06-14 08:00:02FORECAST2024264-2259.84642.8951.36820.2962951156820.0023622060.0123622063.223.232362206FF27.846352.846171429.239620805888.71197401921970.64528838364479163121226DRYL
2024-06-14 04:00:05FORECAST2024264-2260.42242.56651.49420.35290873904700.013.293.3FF28.422350.422171429.263872189158.73676841563580.66693563130047163121226DRYL
2024-06-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024264-2264.95842.83653.89748.96125302533200.053.283.33FF32.958349.958171441.0832212808621.5959872023610.81457577438785164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-13 20:00:02FORECAST2024264-2263.42843.26853.34852.8518038013700.063.363.42FF31.428347.428171442.6252528011123.3935430185760.76990907066432164121123.5DRYL
2024-06-13 16:00:02FORECAST2024264-2260.1741.57650.87353.1190532822780.0062992160.0762992163.323.396299216FF28.17345.17171442.7306196576223.517431375290.65752808696072163121123DRYL
2024-06-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024264-2258.3741.77450.07252.1823251791890.023622060.053622063.483.53362206FF26.37342.37171442.3609872417223.0834248828350.58779057728531163121123DRYL
2024-06-13 08:00:03FORECAST2024264-2254.5939.50647.04852.7868224712320.0216535550.0416535553.543.581653555FF22.59338.59171442.5996221885623.3634276823020.43477153752789162121122.5DRYL
2024-06-13 04:00:06FORECAST2024264-2254.7740.24447.50752.0397246422340.0216535550.0416535553.613.651653555FF22.77338.77171442.3046399729823.0174116721760.44201872057707162121122.5DRYL
2024-06-13 00:00:03FORECAST2024264-2255.32839.7447.53458.7543682707310.0228346580.0328346583.283.312834658FF23.328341.328171444.9358474922626.141924640410.46459790436143162121122.5DRYL
2024-06-12 20:00:04FORECAST2024264-2255.77842.5349.15460.0422645890380.023622060.043622063.173.21362206FF23.778343.778171445.4354149409726.7449510412130.4828938421464162121122.5DRYL
2024-06-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024264-2256.51642.18849.35260.9679678459260.0228346580.0428346583.193.232834658FF24.516339.516171445.7934817031627.1791226584020.51295946343892163121123DRYL
2024-06-12 12:00:03FORECAST2024264-2255.43640.47847.95759.0717054898330.0311023790.1211023792.973.091102379FF23.436341.436171445.0590925112926.2903996383990.46898357342459162122125DRYL
2024-06-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024264-2252.95240.51446.73358.4753212965120.0476378210.0576378212.993.047637821FF20.952339.952171444.8273912338626.0114246238890.37011402974949162121122.5DRYL
2024-06-12 04:00:04FORECAST2024264-2256.55241.88249.21758.1150917114220.0027559070.0027559073.173.172755907FF24.552346.552171444.6872682814225.8430413790760.51442558123334163121123DRYL
2024-06-12 00:00:03FORECAST2024264-2259.5441.37850.45965.26095600590600.093.363.45FF27.54340.54171447.4430700107829.2005625071210.63358909298585163121123DRYL
2024-06-11 20:00:04FORECAST2024264-2260.15237.63448.89369.42742632080900.433.794.22TF28.152337.152171449.0269351416731.1747844556070.65685228078473163122126WETL
2024-06-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024264-2257.68638.06647.87669.131710216370.0248031630.5248031633.674.194803163TF25.686335.686171448.9150717620731.0342666528170.56040600118697163123129WETL
2024-06-11 12:00:03FORECAST2024264-2264.7642.36853.56464.6404322605420.1503937820.6003937823.173.770393782TF32.76354.76171447.2057433028128.9075725564910.80911805319831641231210.5DRYL
2024-06-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024264-2258.13640.40649.27164.3251757212910.1838583670.6038583673.093.693858367TF26.136351.136171447.0850263084728.758822879650.57846317057426163123129DRYL
2024-06-11 04:00:05FORECAST2024264-2258.13635.54646.84163.6270390855640.2027560150.7027560152.993.692756015TF26.136353.136171446.8173538270128.4296652360590.57846317057426163123129DRYL
2024-06-11 00:00:04FORECAST2024264-2246.437.99442.19764.65424126611700.273.093.36FF14.4339.4171447.2110287922128.91408975240.15842311583418161122124DRYL
2024-06-10 20:00:03FORECAST2024264-2240.24433.85437.04970.31103223008300.73.143.84TF8.244327.244171449.3606850786331.5950136114950.051447310049797161123126DRYL
2024-06-10 16:00:04FORECAST2024264-2240.31633.22436.7770.61566598782800.892.983.87TF8.316325.316171449.4755758511731.7400171339930.052230590726737161123126DRYL
2024-06-10 12:00:03FORECAST2024264-2240.56829.51635.04268.30627138152400.232.923.15FF8.568323.568171448.602380097930.6423559173650.055046625312121161122124DRYL
2024-06-10 08:00:04FORECAST2024264-2239.8331.78435.80768.71550450606100.293.033.32FF7.83318.83171448.7574872006830.8365971338670.04712256798088161122124DRYL
2024-06-10 04:00:07FORECAST2024264-2233.13432.933.01769.96795744736700.273.023.29FF1.134297.134171449.2311900284831.4317887879420.0091116764054973161122124DRYL