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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 18, 2024

[ Monday, June 17, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, June 19, 2024 ]

DAY 262 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/19/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.86°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.76°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.81°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.408
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 324

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.69 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 74 in
SWE DAY: 169
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.70 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 33.37 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -24

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-06-19 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024262-2451.8599431.7600641.8174.2009670833330.00999999999999090.689999999999995.15.79TF19.85994323.85994169449.69903332389 33.3681031690730.4079165705741516 2123127.5WETL
2024-06-19 00:00:01FORECAST2024262-2348.41628.23838.32775.0649526368320.0019685050.6819685055.15.781968505TF16.416320.416170450.5847700355433.8231244215960.28631143185108162123127.5WETL
2024-06-18 12:00:01FORECAST2024262-2348.81228.77838.79575.9644280054890.0023622060.6823622065.15.782362206TF16.812320.812170450.9209521659134.2539522069740.29940993510063162123127.5WETL
2024-06-18 08:00:01FORECAST2024262-2348.39828.438.39975.9988524276300.685.15.78TF16.398320.398170450.933803162834.2704515611990.28572255860152162123127.5WETL
2024-06-18 04:00:03FORECAST2024262-2348.54228.52638.53476.4889900153080.0003937010.6803937015.15.780393701TF16.542320.542170451.1166548079134.5054573053410.29044957558308162123127.5WETL
2024-06-18 00:00:01FORECAST2024262-2448.6527.75238.20177.96128151790.0082677210.3582677215.15.458267721TF16.65321.65169451.107791823135.1689415532390.29401866227827162122125WETL
2024-06-17 20:00:01FORECAST2024262-2448.21827.42837.82378.0719447594350.0181102460.4281102465.15.528110246TF16.218320.218169451.1490470587635.2220834802440.27986570987055162122125WETL
2024-06-17 16:00:01FORECAST2024262-2448.34427.3237.83278.0714469923420.0188976480.4288976485.15.528897648TF16.344320.344169451.1488615172435.2218444275990.28395940053106162122125WETL
2024-06-17 12:00:01FORECAST2024262-2447.5728.95838.26478.0037235372850.0090551230.4190551235.15.519055123TF15.57319.57169451.1236155708435.1893217901280.25927573051897162122125WETL
2024-06-17 08:00:02FORECAST2024262-2447.44429.10238.27377.9860002237810.015748040.355748045.15.45574804TF15.444319.444169451.1170079578735.1808110835530.25536487606687162122125WETL
2024-06-17 04:00:03FORECAST2024262-2446.99429.22838.11178.0140409755070.0204724520.4004724525.15.500472452TF14.994318.994169451.1274619853935.1942763045040.24165288690248161122124WETL
2024-06-17 00:00:02FORECAST2024262-2447.78628.83238.30977.0928302475330.0106299270.2406299275.15.340629927TF15.786316.786169450.7836304518734.7521859007930.26605124691394162122125WETL
2024-06-16 20:00:02FORECAST2024262-2448.8328.45438.64277.285254193390.0149606380.3149606385.15.414960638TF16.83318.83169450.8555170122334.8444832367830.30001171976751162122125WETL
2024-06-16 16:00:01FORECAST2024262-2448.81228.45438.63377.1537360759290.0114173290.2914173295.15.391417329TF16.812318.812169450.8063877122134.7813970588910.29940993510063162122125WETL
2024-06-16 12:00:01FORECAST2024262-2448.66828.61638.64277.025388954240.0055118140.2755118145.15.375511814TF16.668319.668169450.7584271289634.7198431740090.29461547371396162122125WETL
2024-06-16 08:00:01FORECAST2024262-2448.41628.9438.67876.9811593983020.0106299270.2306299275.15.330629927TF16.416319.416169450.7418958640634.6986337330040.28631143185108162122125WETL
2024-06-16 04:00:04FORECAST2024262-2448.75829.31839.03877.0454792201410.0122047310.2222047315.15.322204731TF16.758319.758169450.7659354652334.7294775140340.29760787086111162122125WETL
2024-06-16 00:00:02FORECAST2024262-2448.68629.71439.269.2972524018960.015748040.255748044.945.19574804TF16.686315.686169447.8415821050431.0341911511970.29521284284162162122125WETL
2024-06-15 20:00:02FORECAST2024262-2449.4629.5739.51564.9117542321230.0169291430.2569291434.945.196929143TF17.46318.46169446.1607122122328.9610744991490.32140864590124162122125WETL
2024-06-15 16:00:02FORECAST2024262-2449.65830.41640.03764.9275919290320.0149606380.2749606384.945.214960638TF17.658317.658169446.1668162196128.9685369757820.32826218961532162122125WETL
2024-06-15 12:00:02FORECAST2024262-2450.79231.11840.95567.1207216509540.0122047310.3022047314.945.242204731TF18.792320.792169447.0097035771830.003613889080.36857337131869162122125WETL
2024-06-15 08:00:02FORECAST2024262-2452.55630.99241.77467.0189590782410.0070866180.2470866185.025.267086618TF20.556322.556169446.9706968749429.9555108430340.43409696142401162122125WETL
2024-06-15 04:00:04FORECAST2024262-2450.88230.70440.79366.3187495268630.0070866180.2270866184.865.087086618TF18.882320.882169446.7020253906529.6247197350250.37184266944208162122125WETL
2024-06-15 00:00:02FORECAST2024262-2454.06831.1942.62924.3119398980640.0019685050.1719685054.754.921968505TF22.068324.068169429.6775240966410.4462941413860.49181720430037162122125WETL
2024-06-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024262-2453.79832.59443.19625.6589405440760.0023622060.1423622064.84.942362206TF21.798325.798169430.2520939154811.0398128967410.48146218228966162122125WETL
2024-06-14 16:00:02FORECAST2024262-2452.86234.3443.60125.5420658729840.0066929170.1766929174.794.966692917TF20.862324.862169430.2023182911510.9882559525030.44570564039384162122125WETL
2024-06-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024262-2452.8833.54843.21424.8449006042560.0090551230.1790551234.754.929055123TF20.88323.88169429.9050961900910.6809493841060.44639005589048162122125WETL
2024-06-14 08:00:02FORECAST2024262-2452.53832.52242.5324.9574047156820.0090551230.1890551234.744.929055123TF20.538324.538169429.9530956297310.7305134163920.43341576396665162122125WETL
2024-06-14 04:00:05FORECAST2024262-2450.75630.90240.82924.9545847390470.0082677210.2182677214.784.998267721TF18.756320.756169429.951892665310.729270939230.36726829481895162122125WETL
2024-06-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024262-2450.39631.89241.14453.8537994253320.0464567180.2464567184.785.026456718TF18.396317.396169441.8383624875123.7946745518190.35430399095459162122125WETL
2024-06-13 20:00:02FORECAST2024262-2448.63232.05440.34357.703514201370.0625984590.3425984594.785.122598459TF16.632315.632169443.3569395466625.5832534574070.29342240979714162122125WETL
2024-06-13 16:00:02FORECAST2024262-2449.0132.39640.70357.6688724822780.0586614490.3086614494.775.078661449TF17.01317.01169443.3433407096825.5671105812540.30605938610337162122125WETL
2024-06-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024262-2448.25433.00840.63156.4738443791890.0212598540.3912598544.815.201259854TF16.254317.254169442.8734911259525.0107686175150.28103241374537162122125WETL
2024-06-13 08:00:02FORECAST2024262-2447.89432.77440.33456.5862432712320.007874020.447874024.85.24787402TF15.894316.894169442.9177438206325.0630512009790.26947227636578162122125WETL
2024-06-13 04:00:05FORECAST2024262-2448.16432.75640.4655.9402022422340.007874020.447874024.875.31787402TF16.164317.164169442.6632178097524.7626699294760.27812006601394162122125WETL
2024-06-13 00:00:03FORECAST2024262-2449.13632.3640.74862.2900770707310.0015748040.2815748044.74.981574804TF17.136319.136169445.1468994182127.7282346725570.31032453567811162122125WETL
2024-06-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024262-2451.24233.27842.2664.0527533890380.0082677210.1882677214.694.878267721TF19.242319.242169445.8292765628728.5565927052950.38501029171417162122125WETL
2024-06-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024262-2450.3632.95441.65764.9795390459260.0074803190.1774803194.724.897480319TF18.36313.36169446.186835436528.9930148950240.35301650483928162122125WETL
2024-06-12 12:00:02FORECAST2024262-2451.65634.05242.85462.9129462898330.0094488240.0994488244.584.679448824TF19.656317.656169445.388377167728.0206950508670.40031771787969162122125WETL
2024-06-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024262-2454.30233.83644.06962.64138049651200.094.64.69TF22.302318.302169445.2831418502127.8931507173210.50079627106862163121123WETL
2024-06-12 04:00:04FORECAST2024262-2452.55633.09842.82762.5567693114220.0035433090.1635433094.714.873543309TF20.556319.556169445.2503390686727.8534227469510.43409696142401162122125WETL
2024-06-12 00:00:03FORECAST2024262-2448.16432.77440.46969.4912704059060.0917323330.3617323334.795.151732333TF16.164313.164169447.9155135348331.1262180700490.27812006601394162122125WETL
2024-06-11 20:00:04FORECAST2024262-2447.96632.95440.4673.2022471208090.4082679371.0682679374.835.898267937TF15.966312.966169449.3226074665832.8914245487350.271765132772761621241210WETL
2024-06-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024262-2448.48833.56641.02772.736889416370.4311025951.0111025954.795.801102595TF16.488314.488169449.1468838824732.6695472246670.288672662324011621241210WETL
2024-06-11 12:00:03FORECAST2024262-2451.02635.61843.32269.03025306054200.144.734.87TF19.026321.026169447.7397812225630.9075904030650.37709272385566162122125WETL
2024-06-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024262-2451.3535.1543.2568.3026021212910.051181130.161181134.684.84118113TF19.35325.35169447.4619934637830.5628185039560.38898735518938162122125WETL
2024-06-11 04:00:04FORECAST2024262-2453.34837.5845.46466.7966014855640.0519685320.1119685324.634.741968532TF21.348334.348169446.8854296959329.8504279571040.46423500761918162122125WETL
2024-06-11 00:00:03FORECAST2024262-2451.04437.23844.14166.5104588661170.1594489050.3894489054.564.949448905TF19.044331.044169446.7756320701929.7152522991880.37775060326669162122125WETL
2024-06-10 20:00:03FORECAST2024262-2446.25635.25840.75771.5409338300830.4862207350.6962207354.635.326220735TF14.256328.256169448.6943254706832.1000110484320.22005662417137161123126WETL
2024-06-10 16:00:04FORECAST2024262-2444.72634.8839.80371.3940924143280.7311027570.8911027574.525.411102757TF12.726323.726169448.6386647771332.0301502937390.17898628129328161123126WETL
2024-06-10 12:00:03FORECAST2024262-2446.6735.04240.85669.4945726332550.2228347660.4828347664.364.842834766TF14.67319.67169447.9167715480531.1277846139990.23203290991843161122124WETL
2024-06-10 08:00:04FORECAST2024262-2445.62634.8840.25369.8884325060610.2940946470.6040946474.425.024094647TF13.626316.626169448.0667403540531.3146821414450.20252874311161123126WETL
2024-06-10 04:00:07FORECAST2024262-2441.28831.33436.31171.0154254473670.2673229790.5773229794.414.987322979TF9.288303.288169448.4950340589631.8500656547280.10559931111947161123126WETL
2024-06-10 00:00:05FORECAST2024262-2450.86434.93442.89966.171491262720.0444882130.0644882134.364.424488213TF18.864317.864169446.6454613285529.5551962418360.37118806170824162121122.5WETL
2024-06-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024262-2449.87435.36642.6269.8468975593190.03937010.03937014.294.3293701TF17.874320.874169448.050932296431.2949675694640.33580515230222162121122.5WETL
2024-06-09 16:00:03FORECAST2024262-2455.05836.44645.75269.905638887010.027559070.037559074.484.51755907TF23.058331.058169448.0732885548531.322849504630.52977970998583163121123WETL
2024-06-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024262-2445.24833.00839.12869.1209964692050.2240158690.3540158694.574.924015869TF13.248327.248169447.7743874014930.9506118505790.19242404073588161122124WETL
2024-06-09 08:00:04FORECAST2024262-2447.33633.47640.40668.1980371688960.259842660.359842664.614.96984266TF15.336327.336169447.4220325781130.5133044079450.25203738569533162122125WETL
2024-06-09 04:00:05FORECAST2024262-2467.8237.90452.86265.33650946850300.034.644.67TF35.82365.82169446.3243321582729.1612739540820.90368485875675165121124WETL
2024-06-09 00:00:03FORECAST2024262-2445.87837.90441.89164.9172258624100.034.644.67TF13.878340.878169446.1628210612328.9636526262420.20943771659386161121122WETL
2024-06-08 20:00:04FORECAST2024262-2439.3837.14838.26470.59421176847200.094.674.76TF7.38330.38169448.3351027253431.6498631850330.075761430998644161121122WETL
2024-06-08 16:00:03FORECAST2024262-2439.21835.67237.44569.9826380414260.0051181130.1051181134.464.565118113TF7.218330.218169448.1025884759831.359401254740.073557949681877161122124WETL
2024-06-08 12:00:03FORECAST2024262-2438.73231.35235.04269.26726102428800.264.664.92TF6.732331.732169447.8301505045931.0199679295480.067240228998719161122124WETL
2024-06-08 08:00:04FORECAST2024262-2439.30833.06236.18568.29947341432400.054.64.65TF7.308331.308169447.4607979408830.5613368729150.074775997977526161121122WETL
2024-06-08 04:00:06FORECAST2024262-2434.77234.50234.63768.46072202311200.14.624.72TF2.772326.772169447.5224009291830.6377066891280.030121662588317161122124WETL