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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, June 17, 2024

[ Sunday, June 16, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, June 18, 2024 ]

DAY 261 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/18/2024 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.02°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.06°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.54°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.070
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 330

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.46 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.58 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.20 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 77 in
SWE DAY: 168
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 34.89 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -25

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-06-18 04:00:02OBSERVATION2024261-2537.0200230.0599633.5399977.4768791666670.459999999999921.57999999999994.25.7799999999999TF5.02002330.02002168450.36751055773 34.8930691960730.07033045950658416 11251210WETL
2024-06-18 00:00:01FORECAST2024261-2437.54425.5231.53278.9014295123470.1318898351.2518898354.25.451889835TF5.544330.544169451.4579098762935.6206744538960.077587657530977161124128WETL
2024-06-17 12:00:01FORECAST2024261-2436.91426.22231.56878.9237277430420.1862205731.3062205734.25.506220573TF4.914329.914169451.4662037561735.6313957504360.068927470796528161124128WETL
2024-06-17 08:00:02FORECAST2024261-2436.5926.11431.35278.8817759323840.1196851041.2396851044.25.439685104TF4.59329.59169451.4505992910435.6112250178170.064772996052062161124128WETL
2024-06-17 04:00:03FORECAST2024261-2436.80626.40231.60478.8701214571570.1594489051.2794489054.25.479448905TF4.806329.806169451.4462639779635.6056216713220.067520488472613161124128WETL
2024-06-17 00:00:02FORECAST2024261-2536.55426.4231.48778.0291585607110.1421260611.1321260614.25.332126061TF4.554326.554168450.574322517835.1579352551270.064323613085041161124128WETL
2024-06-16 20:00:02FORECAST2024261-2536.89626.20431.5578.2300134632790.1779528521.1979528524.25.397952852TF4.896327.896168450.6494647033535.2543136909630.068691422332412161124128WETL
2024-06-16 16:00:01FORECAST2024261-2536.89626.09631.49678.0918460655160.1570866991.1770866994.25.377086699TF4.896327.896168450.5977787672835.1880123769580.068691422332412161124128WETL
2024-06-16 12:00:01FORECAST2024261-2537.68826.18631.93777.9536141602180.153543391.173543394.25.37354339TF5.688328.688168450.5460505452835.1216929856170.07967807615988161124128WETL
2024-06-16 08:00:01FORECAST2024261-2537.59826.4232.00977.9277575105690.1381890511.1181890514.25.318189051TF5.598328.598168450.5363726256935.1092891956670.078366647349623161124128WETL
2024-06-16 04:00:04FORECAST2024261-2537.65226.65432.15378.0047256131470.1444882671.1144882674.25.314488267TF5.652328.652168450.5651792486935.1462131781320.07915153287958161124128WETL
2024-06-16 00:00:02FORECAST2024261-2538.42627.75233.08970.3025659676990.1503937820.9803937824.25.180393782TF6.426325.426168447.6544171288331.4712541909310.091062231546494161123126WETL
2024-06-15 20:00:02FORECAST2024261-2538.40827.80633.10766.0274542484940.1444882670.9844882674.25.184488267TF6.408327.408168446.0140427154429.4491717995790.090770969212829161123126WETL
2024-06-15 16:00:02FORECAST2024261-2538.42628.36433.39566.0569647254730.1677166260.9977166264.25.197716626TF6.426326.426168446.0254271454629.4630859076120.091062231546494161124128WETL
2024-06-15 12:00:02FORECAST2024261-2539.59628.433.99868.3579625571310.1362205461.0262205464.25.226220546TF7.596327.596168446.9104744609230.5498894795890.11150529535992161124128WETL
2024-06-15 08:00:01FORECAST2024261-2540.22628.434.31368.3407662782410.0858268181.0558268184.25.255826818TF8.226328.226168446.9038793135930.5417535650090.12378043622339161124128WETL
2024-06-15 04:00:04FORECAST2024261-2540.74828.50834.62867.6401631268630.0685039740.8785039744.25.078503974TF8.748327.748168446.6349376601130.2104600414860.13464233581157161123126WETL
2024-06-15 00:00:02FORECAST2024261-2541.68428.86835.27625.7801662980640.0405512030.7005512034.224.920551203TF9.684327.684168429.6656295154111.0768513814690.1557118617184161123126WETL
2024-06-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024261-2542.76428.86835.81627.1858133440760.0338582860.7138582864.234.943858286TF10.764329.764168430.2652130095811.6971097693270.18258208374858161123126WETL
2024-06-14 16:00:01FORECAST2024261-2543.05228.95836.00527.1157770729840.0456693160.7256693164.234.955669316TF11.052330.052168430.2353894478911.6661669091780.19020867273632161123126WETL
2024-06-14 12:00:02FORECAST2024261-2541.84629.24635.54626.3231638042560.0464567180.6864567184.234.916456718TF9.846328.846168429.897500721511.3162623305320.15956755159395161123126WETL
2024-06-14 08:00:02FORECAST2024261-2542.87229.82236.34726.3907975156820.0559055420.6859055424.234.915905542TF10.872329.872168429.9263593293111.3460994957140.18541944322391161123126WETL
2024-06-14 04:00:04FORECAST2024261-2541.3629.42635.39326.1851751390470.0850394160.7550394164.234.985039416TF9.36328.36168429.8386070020411.2553992058730.14818581119229161123126WETL
2024-06-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024261-2539.68628.72434.20555.0892242176390.0799213030.7299213034.254.979921303TF7.686324.686168441.7350121956224.3348391316260.11320364634017161123126WETL
2024-06-13 20:00:02FORECAST2024261-2539.54228.59834.0758.7596765453630.177165450.807165454.255.05716545TF7.542324.542168443.1841647150226.0413581686810.11049505084662161123126WETL
2024-06-13 16:00:02FORECAST2024261-2539.79428.3134.05258.8034368809350.1795276560.7695276564.255.019527656TF7.794325.794168443.2013606181826.0617632346560.1152658509106161123126WETL
2024-06-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024261-2539.95630.03834.99757.5098681268410.2622048660.9422048664.245.182204866TF7.956326.956168442.6922368226225.4591721604450.11840883868842161123126WETL
2024-06-13 08:00:02FORECAST2024261-2539.9230.03834.97957.6357456447050.3102363881.0102363884.235.240236388TF7.92326.92168442.7418532969625.5177568428890.11770523087157161124128WETL
2024-06-13 04:00:05FORECAST2024261-2540.13629.37234.75457.0350006422340.3102363881.0902363884.225.310236388TF8.136327.136168442.5049179517125.2382682795670.12197132508932161124128WETL
2024-06-13 00:00:03FORECAST2024261-2541.73828.45435.09663.4707786707310.1606300080.7606300084.224.980630008TF9.738327.738168445.0244924263128.2460510618450.15699022531051161123126WETL
2024-06-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024261-2543.59227.78835.6965.3949293890380.0649606650.6349606654.244.874960665TF11.592325.592168445.7698246107529.1510862041840.2050253058056161123126WETL
2024-06-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024261-2542.827.17634.98866.2554918459260.0625984590.6525984594.244.892598459TF10.8320.8168446.1019919425129.5567068895990.18352484980348161123126WETL
2024-06-12 12:00:02FORECAST2024261-2545.10427.0536.07764.3598198898330.0259842660.4259842664.244.665984266TF13.104324.104168445.3693210140728.6638892849230.2499894138279162122125WETL
2024-06-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024261-2543.32227.39235.35764.3199860965120.0259842660.4459842664.244.685984266TF11.322322.322168445.3538875094428.6451558526350.19753318509733161122124WETL
2024-06-12 04:00:04FORECAST2024261-2542.36827.0534.70964.0535317114220.1248032170.6248032174.254.874803217TF10.368325.368168445.2506102499428.5198740831740.17241162197387161123126WETL
2024-06-12 00:00:02FORECAST2024261-2539.52429.15634.3470.4808707786530.2066930250.7766930254.285.056693025TF7.524322.524168447.7224470785231.5558679372430.11015976062145161123126WETL
2024-06-11 20:00:04FORECAST2024261-2540.60428.50834.55674.0318398844770.5574806161.2074806164.285.487480616TF8.604322.604168449.0708775399533.2455433028190.13158282379143161124128WETL
2024-06-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024261-2540.35228.83234.59273.6930740647210.4381892131.0881892134.285.368189213TF8.352324.352168448.942760149633.0839720745250.12634452490434161124128WETL
2024-06-11 12:00:03FORECAST2024261-2544.67229.5737.12170.5339034605420.0389763990.5989763994.274.868976399TF12.672327.672168447.7426750848131.5810386195970.23663397516861161123126WETL
2024-06-11 08:00:02FORECAST2024261-2546.45429.31837.88669.7837189212910.0090551230.4990551234.294.789055123TF14.454332.454168447.4562822279931.2251634285640.29416576490301162123127.5WETL
2024-06-11 04:00:04FORECAST2024261-2552.46630.09241.27968.55471428556400.44.294.69TF20.466339.466168446.985912532630.6429915233450.52080155123434163122126WETL
2024-06-11 00:00:03FORECAST2024261-2553.45631.78442.6268.1195940661170.1673229250.5073229254.284.787322925TF21.456338.456168446.8190292714830.437130894990.55957154595953163123129WETL
2024-06-10 20:00:03FORECAST2024261-2553.90631.67642.79172.6826690300830.145669370.565669374.274.83566937TF21.906339.906168448.5599810234932.602536640870.57702956589626163123129WETL
2024-06-10 16:00:03FORECAST2024261-2551.833.31442.55772.3957060143280.1125984860.4225984864.264.682598486TF19.8336.8168448.4510894855132.4659332361980.49458576590064162122125WETL
2024-06-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024261-2543.732.73838.21970.3990406145230.1645670180.3245670184.34.624567018TF11.7330.7168447.6912296377231.5170330580310.20806873741168161122124WETL
2024-06-10 08:00:04FORECAST2024261-2543.91632.5438.22870.9329485060610.2877954310.4077954314.324.727795431TF11.916328.916168447.8947936029231.7704983307690.21423483590627161122124WETL
2024-06-10 04:00:06FORECAST2024261-2538.78630.61434.771.5406846473670.2925198430.4025198434.324.722519843TF6.786319.786168448.1261704812332.059253044630.097033364025554161122124WETL
2024-06-10 00:00:04FORECAST2024261-2546.09431.92839.01167.5614896627200.154.234.38TF14.094325.094168446.6047072517230.173279312310.28203991416195162122125WETL
2024-06-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024261-2546.90433.45840.18171.20806475931900.054.244.29TF14.904328.904168447.9995799172631.9011830988960.30965255426989162121122.5WETL
2024-06-09 16:00:02FORECAST2024261-2551.42232.66642.04471.6655228870100.244.254.49TF19.422334.422168448.1736546055932.1185993014920.47970967664276162122125WETL
2024-06-09 12:00:02FORECAST2024261-2547.91232.84640.37969.6669123236290.0224409570.4424409574.264.702440957TF15.912339.912168447.411640646231.169787541470.34555933097119162122125WETL
2024-06-09 08:00:04FORECAST2024261-2552.12431.31641.7269.4033387688960.0027559070.4627559074.254.712755907TF20.124338.124168447.3108584446731.0448670436410.50734348094825163122126WETL
2024-06-09 04:00:05FORECAST2024261-2556.06635.47445.7768.05097186850300.414.264.67TF24.066356.066168446.7926935054830.4046770167940.65818115909863163122126WETL
2024-06-09 00:00:02FORECAST2024261-2556.06635.47445.7765.2793378624100.414.264.67TF24.066353.066168445.725152256729.0966428079390.65818115909863163122126WETL
2024-06-08 20:00:03FORECAST2024261-2552.50235.81644.15970.8879357684720.0385826980.4985826984.264.758582698TF20.502348.502168447.8776421741831.7491215305780.52221707803527163123129WETL
2024-06-08 16:00:03FORECAST2024261-2552.66434.68243.67370.1917380414260.055118140.285118144.274.55511814TF20.664348.664168447.6121166030431.4186724327690.52858322379864163122126WETL
2024-06-08 12:00:03FORECAST2024261-2552.93432.84642.8969.3382074242880.0377952960.6577952964.264.917795296TF20.934350.934168447.2859438777631.0140055545640.5391764573117163123129WETL
2024-06-08 08:00:03FORECAST2024261-2554.80635.29445.0568.42483501432400.354.34.65TF22.806349.806168446.9361187660230.5815301885070.61146317986547163122126WETL
2024-06-08 04:00:06FORECAST2024261-2553.43832.64843.04368.5040180231120.0031496080.4631496084.264.723149608TF21.438350.438168446.966478299730.6189996851690.55887057540207163122126WETL
2024-06-08 00:00:03FORECAST2024261-2546.16635.640.88367.6020319321790.0074803190.1474803194.274.417480319TF14.166350.166168446.6202864400630.192438865480.28444575088865162122125WETL
2024-06-07 20:00:05FORECAST2024261-2539.23633.09836.16773.5538288109510.2728347930.4028347934.274.672834793TF7.236332.236168448.8900671966533.0175831575180.10489377456456161122124WETL
2024-06-07 16:00:04FORECAST2024261-2540.04637.68838.86773.6122349366610.3720474450.4520474454.494.942047445TF8.046333.046168448.9121714128933.0454282279720.12018080962748161122124WETL
2024-06-07 12:00:03FORECAST2024261-2539.12835.54637.33773.3212349109120.0015748040.2915748044.654.941574804TF7.128313.128168448.8020078313832.9067174446940.10296662728628161122124WETL
2024-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2024261-2540.53237.52639.02971.8493535938050.0535433360.2635433364.594.853543336TF8.532329.532168448.2435500079332.2060093206620.13007114639059161122124WETL
2024-06-07 04:00:14FORECAST2024261-2540.5539.57840.06471.72602310156400.214.594.8TF8.55330.55168448.1966613669132.1473640872470.13044793745066161122124WETL