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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 16, 2024

[ Saturday, June 15, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, June 17, 2024 ]

DAY 260 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/17/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.15°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.38°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.27°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.124
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 336

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.22 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.12 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.44 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 79 in
SWE DAY: 167
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 35.49 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -26

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-06-17 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024260-2640.1500428.3800234.2650378.8170995833330.220000000000031.124.325.44TF8.15004336.15004167450.30909971629 35.492057155620.1242752536411616 1124128WETL
2024-06-17 00:00:01FORECAST2024260-2536.57224.85430.71378.007431516050.0854331170.9854331174.325.305433117TF4.572332.572168450.5661918764635.147511356250.065666731738179161123126WETL
2024-06-16 12:00:01FORECAST2024260-2537.72424.74631.23578.0243007357520.1244095161.0244095164.325.344409516TF5.724333.724168450.5725046734135.1556046078990.081581979101293161124128WETL
2024-06-16 08:00:01FORECAST2024260-2537.7624.31431.03777.9188283649950.07874020.97874024.325.2987402TF5.76333.76168450.5330303763435.1050058666550.082122355499654161123126WETL
2024-06-16 04:00:03FORECAST2024260-2537.90424.63831.27177.9894655721220.0744094890.9744094894.325.294409489TF5.904333.904168450.5594683660735.138892146330.084310751830616161123126WETL
2024-06-16 00:00:02FORECAST2024260-2637.45424.63831.04670.3014529699690.0850394160.8250394164.325.145039416TF5.454330.454167447.0819714013531.4305121861930.077614019706174161123126WETL
2024-06-15 20:00:02FORECAST2024260-2637.6724.51231.09166.0129379964380.1007874560.8407874564.325.160787456TF5.67331.67167445.4301564160929.4041532972390.080776430715586161123126WETL
2024-06-15 16:00:02FORECAST2024260-2637.27424.74631.0165.967252487260.0909449310.8309449314.325.150944931TF5.274331.274167445.4124626069129.3826363817620.075050990933061161123126WETL
2024-06-15 12:00:02FORECAST2024260-2637.25626.43831.84768.3937697703940.1472441740.8872441744.325.207244174TF5.256331.256167446.3494069393630.5275185753620.074798268499556161123126WETL
2024-06-15 08:00:01FORECAST2024260-2636.73425.9731.35268.564688591930.1531496890.9731496894.325.293149689TF4.734330.734167446.4151858957630.6083182036520.067747505299261161123126WETL
2024-06-15 04:00:04FORECAST2024260-2637.27426.00631.6467.9611247481070.1476378750.8076378754.325.127637875TF5.274330.274167446.1827736692830.3230831417940.075050990933061161123126WETL
2024-06-15 00:00:02FORECAST2024260-2637.65225.35831.50526.2199103493870.1314961340.6814961344.325.001496134TF5.652328.652167429.2136421880511.2539432189050.080509249036253161123126WETL
2024-06-14 20:00:01FORECAST2024260-2638.7525.8832.31527.7347802187480.1114173830.7114173834.325.031417383TF6.75329.75167429.8614612768211.9221131530230.098055090811311161123126WETL
2024-06-14 16:00:01FORECAST2024260-2639.18226.07832.6327.6745499643290.1196851040.7096851044.325.029685104TF7.182330.182167429.835751960311.895510994080.10567430897465161123126WETL
2024-06-14 12:00:02FORECAST2024260-2639.4726.85233.16126.8396438882020.1173228980.6673228984.324.987322898TF7.47330.47167429.4789664141911.527062516030.11098534847387161123126WETL
2024-06-14 08:00:01FORECAST2024260-2639.63225.8832.75626.9076046709580.1165354960.6565354964.324.976535496TF7.632329.632167429.5080368092511.5570324574620.11405524429955161123126WETL
2024-06-14 04:00:04FORECAST2024260-2640.47825.91633.19726.5323369994180.1161417950.6961417954.325.016141795TF8.478330.478167429.3474524562911.3915912984120.13106624274854161123126WETL
2024-06-14 00:00:02FORECAST2024260-2639.70426.38433.04455.3652555252510.1204725060.7004725064.325.020472506TF7.704327.704167441.2503249574324.4299369918680.11543882358637161123126WETL
2024-06-13 20:00:01FORECAST2024260-2639.72226.40233.06258.8557513804330.1043307650.6843307654.325.004330765TF7.722327.722167442.6330205134326.0514990081080.11578656843729161123126WETL
2024-06-13 16:00:02FORECAST2024260-2639.8326.40233.11658.7849767295040.0704724790.6404724794.324.960472479TF7.83328.83167442.6051060301126.018530858340.11788861393211161123126WETL
2024-06-13 12:00:02FORECAST2024260-2641.10825.93433.52157.2473253576620.1133858880.7233858884.325.043385888TF9.108330.108167441.997394960825.303168676560.14481808703353161123126WETL
2024-06-13 08:00:02FORECAST2024260-2640.9126.02433.46757.2867004407850.1271654230.7271654234.325.047165423TF8.91329.91167442.0129864233225.3214655441690.14039544957966161123126WETL
2024-06-13 04:00:05FORECAST2024260-2640.35225.98833.1756.7157697016260.1346457420.8046457424.325.124645742TF8.352330.352167441.7867606835125.0562761761530.1284275596934161123126WETL
2024-06-13 00:00:03FORECAST2024260-2638.87625.41232.14463.7716017561440.1236221140.6236221144.324.943622114TF6.876328.876167444.5596710206728.3502822971730.10023469580582161123126WETL
2024-06-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024260-2638.19224.85431.52365.8619289303160.1232284130.6132284134.324.933228413TF6.192325.192167445.3716634040529.3330368426940.088817912815559161123126WETL
2024-06-12 16:00:02FORECAST2024260-2636.93223.75630.34466.7262374486430.1106299810.6306299814.324.950629981TF4.932320.932167445.7061482282929.7402942790010.070359169188755161123126WETL
2024-06-12 12:00:02FORECAST2024260-2636.5923.86430.22764.9435752680230.059055150.439055154.324.75905515TF4.59321.59167445.0154577300828.9008948745270.065895460970137161122124WETL
2024-06-12 08:00:02FORECAST2024260-2636.96824.69230.8364.8165428038180.062992160.462992164.324.78299216TF4.968321.968167444.9661196683728.8411655417340.070842197720841161122124WETL
2024-06-12 04:00:04FORECAST2024260-2638.55224.3531.45164.6019796245220.0389763990.5489763994.324.868976399TF6.552325.552167444.882749444328.7403063149020.094700256803768161123126WETL
2024-06-12 00:00:02FORECAST2024260-2638.40826.16832.28870.6804821331020.0555118410.6355118414.334.965511841TF6.408326.408167447.2270991855631.6102269934240.092313875196778161123126WETL
2024-06-11 20:00:03FORECAST2024260-2638.19225.5231.85673.3184087558460.1027559610.7227559614.335.052755961TF6.192325.192167448.2332832400232.8637510785670.088817912815559161123126WETL
2024-06-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024260-2638.40825.35831.88373.0202209292920.1358268450.7158268454.335.045826845TF6.408327.408167448.1198831668332.7218128716510.092313875196778161123126WETL
2024-06-11 12:00:02FORECAST2024260-2639.16426.632.88271.3433627919510.1027559610.6227559614.334.952755961TF7.164326.164167447.4805762393631.9247690929960.10534855771171161123126WETL
2024-06-11 08:00:02FORECAST2024260-2639.90226.99633.44970.7403708994770.0960630440.5660630444.334.896063044TF7.902328.902167447.2500174223431.6386321172540.11930484565772161123126WETL
2024-06-11 04:00:04FORECAST2024260-2640.49626.9633.72869.9120068101730.0602362530.4802362534.334.810236253TF8.496330.496167446.932709413831.2459626242260.13144622412521161122124WETL
2024-06-11 00:00:03FORECAST2024260-2642.67426.20434.43969.3746025662420.0578740470.4078740474.334.737874047TF10.674327.674167446.7264973302230.9914732080930.1830648821261161122124WETL
2024-06-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024260-2643.12425.80834.46673.9423947475840.0606299540.4806299544.334.810629954TF11.124329.124167448.4703057930933.1609683835230.19512426193131161122124WETL
2024-06-10 16:00:03FORECAST2024260-2644.04225.23234.63773.6447717714350.0452756150.3652756154.324.685275615TF12.042328.042167448.3572998601633.0191710202580.22117388367547161122124WETL
2024-06-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024260-2644.56426.7835.67271.0665382898910.1011811570.2611811574.324.581181157TF12.564329.564167447.3747740006431.7933765064480.2368309581815161122124WETL
2024-06-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024260-2644.626.43835.51971.2485059470890.0212598540.2212598544.344.561259854TF12.6327.6167447.4443303607331.8797400326970.23793273305604161122124WETL
2024-06-10 04:00:06FORECAST2024260-2641.46826.81634.14271.3772084770320.0185039470.2085039474.344.548503947TF9.468324.468167447.493506946631.9408373374460.15309660148208161122124WETL
2024-06-10 00:00:04FORECAST2024260-2641.39626.97834.18768.510656062720.0161417410.1561417414.344.496141741TF9.396322.396167446.3943942956330.5827728159150.15141636181776161122124WETL
2024-06-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024260-2643.23227.19435.21372.2899727593190.0015748040.0615748044.354.411574804TF11.232325.232167447.8418086492432.3744721477380.19808865332204161121122WETL
2024-06-09 16:00:02FORECAST2024260-2644.99625.6135.30372.989790087010.0133858340.2633858344.354.613385834TF12.996325.996167448.1083055642132.7073311593780.25023547791017162122125WETL
2024-06-09 12:00:02FORECAST2024260-2645.7727.57236.67170.7933713133570.1082677750.4382677754.364.798267775TF13.77334.77167447.2702967163331.6637721928740.27522118983329162122125WETL
2024-06-09 08:00:04FORECAST2024260-2643.86228.20236.03270.7061524615260.0952756420.4752756424.354.825275642TF11.862328.862167447.2369231353231.622402073630.21591514866717161122124WETL
2024-06-09 04:00:05FORECAST2024260-2650.07229.55239.81269.8236478685030.0342519870.4342519874.364.794251987TF18.072343.072167446.8988237639731.2041061033440.43207076514166162122125WETL
2024-06-09 00:00:02FORECAST2024260-2650.07229.55239.81267.052013862410.0342519870.4342519874.364.794251987TF18.072340.072167445.8320323030829.8939356102930.43207076514166162122125WETL
2024-06-08 20:00:03FORECAST2024260-2648.95630.16439.5672.4233479642280.0500000270.4800000274.364.840000027TF16.956338.956167447.8926357060732.4378842063560.38912131610193162122125WETL
2024-06-08 16:00:03FORECAST2024260-2647.89429.6638.77771.5924620414260.0350393890.2550393894.364.615039389TF15.894338.894167447.5757183259532.0430476249150.34946353338832162122125WETL
2024-06-08 12:00:03FORECAST2024260-2645.60831.15438.38170.3312397024340.2216536630.6816536634.325.001653663TF13.608340.608167447.0933816054331.4446317910630.26989178464865162123127.5WETL
2024-06-08 08:00:03FORECAST2024260-2647.49831.26239.3869.8321613768370.0484252230.4284252234.344.768425223TF15.498338.498167446.9020890250931.2081388004460.3350605996532162122125WETL
2024-06-08 04:00:06FORECAST2024260-2644.99630.9237.95869.7534267503970.1011811570.5111811574.334.841181157TF12.996339.996167446.871888544531.1708455444010.25023547791017162123127.5WETL
2024-06-08 00:00:03FORECAST2024260-2647.06630.6538.85867.8795199321790.0385826980.1585826984.374.528582698TF15.066347.066167446.1513230348330.2845376247110.31962081397025162122125WETL
2024-06-07 20:00:05FORECAST2024260-2645.5928.95837.27473.6795840109510.0377952960.1477952964.374.517795296TF13.59335.59167448.3705223029533.0357535660540.26930282904892162122125WETL
2024-06-07 16:00:04FORECAST2024260-2653.13232.4542.79173.8973981366610.0027559070.3127559074.384.692755907TF21.132336.132167448.4532262893733.1395266087760.55246557841898163122126WETL
2024-06-07 12:00:03FORECAST2024260-2647.31833.45840.38873.5518845109120.0850394160.6650394164.395.055039416TF15.318317.318167448.3220135438732.9749289638780.32859155039158162123127.5WETL
2024-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2024260-2656.87631.98244.42972.1415031938050.0110236280.5110236284.414.921023628TF24.876331.876167447.7852091285532.3038980944860.69238622083495163123129WETL
2024-06-07 04:00:14FORECAST2024260-2656.87631.9144.39371.8582727015640.0110236280.5110236284.414.921023628TF24.876332.876167447.67717687532.169308658150.69238622083495163123129WETL
2024-06-07 00:00:04FORECAST2024260-2633.90831.60432.75675.7365404564810.1661418221.0861418224.465.546141822TF1.908297.908167449.1497270690934.0170464751860.038066896132685161124128WETL
2024-06-06 20:00:03FORECAST2024260-2635.56432.84634.20579.8153161273960.055118141.015118144.435.44511814TF3.564298.564167450.6828380181235.9713931896080.053810343845052161124128WETL
2024-06-06 16:00:04FORECAST2024260-2635.67232.30633.98979.8009834368590.0917323330.9417323334.675.611732333TF3.672303.672167450.6774784747835.9645059951310.054993576027663161123126WETL
2024-06-06 12:00:04FORECAST2024260-2635.85231.58633.71975.60994921400.354.665.01TF3.852306.852167449.1018899547433.9565710913890.057011055909619161122124WETL
2024-06-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024260-2641.19833.13437.16672.72744286965800.134.644.77TF9.198348.198167448.0084568172932.5825094483030.14685897606568161122124WETL
2024-06-06 04:00:05FORECAST2024260-2641.12639.41640.27171.573695640100.084.394.47TF9.126352.126167447.5685526988432.0341353689470.14522473361324161121122WETL