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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 15, 2024

[ Friday, June 14, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, June 16, 2024 ]

DAY 259 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/16/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.74°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.56°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.65°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.063
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 330

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.90 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.90 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.62 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.52 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 78 in
SWE DAY: 166
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.49 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 35.12 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -27

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-06-16 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024259-2735.7400429.5599232.6499878.1232033333330.899999999999980.899999999999984.625.52TF3.74004329.74004166449.48583828204 35.1152735395620.06266595994741216 1123126WETL
2024-06-16 00:00:02FORECAST2024259-2632.88226.629.74170.3727425261020.7437011890.7437011894.625.363701189TF0.882326.882167447.1092783747631.4643061280980.03641866383181161123126WETL
2024-06-15 12:00:02FORECAST2024259-2633.8927.39230.64168.2903183820970.7405515810.7405515814.625.360551581TF1.89327.89167446.30957928430.4786232662840.044403203116842161123126WETL
2024-06-15 08:00:01FORECAST2024259-2633.51227.03230.27268.5216175951510.8185043790.8185043794.625.438504379TF1.512327.512167446.3986125002830.587955020750.041258253483115161123126WETL
2024-06-15 04:00:03FORECAST2024259-2633.0826.79829.93967.879040953670.657480670.657480674.625.27748067TF1.08327.08167446.1511384164630.2843113960970.037887077418531161123126WETL
2024-06-15 00:00:02FORECAST2024259-2733.67426.70830.19126.1391326673680.527559340.547559344.625.16755934TF1.674324.674166428.5366689589611.201576842750.042583320003293161123126WETL
2024-06-14 20:00:01FORECAST2024259-2734.80826.81630.81227.8148091095080.5685042440.5985042444.625.218504244TF2.808324.808166429.2559843771211.9396732645630.05284508241258161123126WETL
2024-06-14 16:00:01FORECAST2024259-2734.7926.65430.72227.7618113699340.5622050280.5922050284.625.212205028TF2.79324.79166429.2332809599411.9162933797070.052668147606601161123126WETL
2024-06-14 12:00:02FORECAST2024259-2734.80828.18431.49626.9795273079940.5188979180.5488979184.625.168897918TF2.808324.808166428.8978067497711.5714600895440.05284508241258161123126WETL
2024-06-14 08:00:01FORECAST2024259-2734.1627.9531.05527.0033905579330.5141735060.5441735064.625.164173506TF2.16324.16166428.9080501109411.5819715905870.04676533578868161123126WETL
2024-06-14 04:00:04FORECAST2024259-2734.6128.14831.37926.6343712788760.5488191940.5788191944.625.198819194TF2.61323.61166428.7495781836811.4194754510050.050924460845443161123126WETL
2024-06-14 00:00:02FORECAST2024259-2735.0628.27431.66755.4473110963590.5291341440.5791341444.625.199134144TF3.06322.06166440.6866937406824.4348922038650.055371826441614161123126WETL
2024-06-13 20:00:01FORECAST2024259-2735.20428.41831.81158.9691761341350.5259845360.5759845364.625.195984536TF3.204322.204166442.0867796228226.0694931741510.05685780850626161123126WETL
2024-06-13 16:00:01FORECAST2024259-2734.89827.9531.42458.9448903025670.5153546090.5653546094.625.185354609TF2.898322.898166442.0771678301626.0581901630180.053736816054214161123126WETL
2024-06-13 12:00:02FORECAST2024259-2735.20428.20231.70357.3999435135690.5724412540.6124412544.625.232441254TF3.204323.204166441.4644920160325.3400369049660.05685780850626161123126WETL
2024-06-13 08:00:02FORECAST2024259-2735.07828.63431.85657.4109058032850.5681105430.5981105434.625.218110543TF3.078323.078166441.4688477794425.345126434950.055555885420577161123126WETL
2024-06-13 04:00:05FORECAST2024259-2734.95228.25631.60456.9659036275660.6480318460.6680318464.625.288031846TF2.952323.952166441.2919328184525.1385937165580.05427753132537161123126WETL
2024-06-13 00:00:02FORECAST2024259-2734.82628.16631.49663.8647035356350.4755908080.4955908084.625.115590808TF2.826323.826166444.0122646967728.3567116510450.053022486843413161123126WETL
2024-06-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024259-2734.59228.20231.39765.8953478218280.452756150.492756154.625.11275615TF2.592320.592166444.8039490285229.3105109337570.050752641458369161123126WETL
2024-06-12 16:00:02FORECAST2024259-2733.60227.24830.42566.6771578508860.4751971070.5151971074.625.135197107TF1.602317.602166445.1076651206629.678514047890.041990226695003161123126WETL
2024-06-12 12:00:02FORECAST2024259-2733.7126.79830.25465.0147533702930.3405513650.3805513654.625.000551365TF1.71318.71166444.4611343290128.8965310310810.042882388748336161122124WETL
2024-06-12 08:00:02FORECAST2024259-2734.01627.3230.66864.8930845328990.3566931060.3966931064.625.016693106TF2.016319.016166444.4137084310428.8393763487950.045493325408623161122124WETL
2024-06-12 04:00:03FORECAST2024259-2734.32227.15830.7464.8071377981190.4622049740.5122049744.625.132204974TF2.322321.322166444.3801979936228.7990087261280.048230172340735161123126WETL
2024-06-12 00:00:02FORECAST2024259-2734.9728.43631.70370.8253098604390.5125987020.5825987024.635.212598702TF2.97321.97166446.7090806145231.6383090519950.054458720154815161123126WETL
2024-06-11 20:00:03FORECAST2024259-2734.66428.32831.49673.2706824337780.5452758850.6152758854.635.245275885TF2.664320.664166447.6452542463432.7992732668720.051442689319429161123126WETL
2024-06-11 16:00:02FORECAST2024259-2735.58228.52632.05473.037310427140.5090553930.5790553934.635.209055393TF3.582322.582166447.5561621047432.6882983452230.060907562340869161123126WETL
2024-06-11 12:00:02FORECAST2024259-2734.5228.65231.58671.6102045607710.4637797780.5237797784.635.153779778TF2.52320.52166447.0101994910532.0104918263050.050069960616346161123126WETL
2024-06-11 08:00:02FORECAST2024259-2735.02428.83231.92871.0703341355490.3889765880.4689765884.635.098976588TF3.024323.024166446.8031467712831.7544489338490.055005148472229161122124WETL
2024-06-11 04:00:04FORECAST2024259-2736.26627.71631.99170.2764125485630.3433072720.4233072724.635.053307272TF4.266324.266166446.4981433497631.3782877242150.068802829067237161122124WETL
2024-06-11 00:00:02FORECAST2024259-2736.0527.1431.59569.7425700079710.2818899160.3518899164.634.981889916TF4.05319.05166446.2927092314231.1256005176190.066228893738224161122124WETL
2024-06-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024259-2736.73426.99631.86574.3382611884910.3614175180.4214175184.635.051417518TF4.734319.734166448.0521406171833.3074170552620.074642619702827161122124WETL
2024-06-10 16:00:03FORECAST2024259-2736.7727.89632.33374.1967234131370.2606300620.3206300624.624.940630062TF4.77317.77166447.9982597355633.2400029671660.075106992458038161122124WETL
2024-06-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024259-2737.77827.3232.54971.7295141351730.0622047580.1622047584.624.782204758TF5.778318.778166447.0559191617332.0671038727240.08901819535421161122124WETL
2024-06-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024259-2737.05826.52831.79371.9051231694470.0976378480.1976378484.644.837637848TF5.058317.058166447.1231876998932.1504478834760.078901335648275161122124WETL
2024-06-10 04:00:06FORECAST2024259-2736.48227.17631.82971.7903225695140.0933071370.1933071374.644.833307137TF4.482317.482166447.0792157472232.0959611126180.071452945622494161122124WETL
2024-06-10 00:00:04FORECAST2024259-2738.4828.25633.36868.9152051162060.1303150310.1403150314.644.780315031TF6.48315.48166445.9737704665230.7343738681480.099779054047188161122124WETL
2024-06-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024259-2738.94828.79633.87272.8146982897270.047244120.057244124.654.70724412TF6.948315.948166447.4711284242232.5824752095730.10746085821707161121122WETL
2024-06-09 16:00:02FORECAST2024259-2738.35427.5932.97273.5109843323740.2342520950.2542520954.654.904252095TF6.354315.354166447.7369367752332.9135829443090.097780917062099161122124WETL
2024-06-09 12:00:02FORECAST2024259-2741.86429.89435.87971.237657005580.311023790.331023794.664.99102379TF9.864322.864166446.8673493034731.8337829566730.16491734751263161122124WETL
2024-06-09 08:00:04FORECAST2024259-2741.05430.4735.76271.1280884785610.3602364150.3802364154.655.030236415TF9.054319.054166446.8253104542831.7818302164520.14726636486075161122124WETL
2024-06-09 04:00:05FORECAST2024259-2744.63629.9337.28370.871944463560.3775592590.3975592594.665.057559259TF12.636326.636166446.7269884043331.6604103125650.23513678981559161122124WETL
2024-06-09 00:00:02FORECAST2024259-2744.63629.9337.28368.0978410014810.3775592590.3975592594.665.057559259TF12.636323.636166445.6580280405530.3483495345390.23513678981559161122124WETL
2024-06-08 20:00:03FORECAST2024259-2745.55430.00237.77873.3763415886630.4141734520.4341734524.665.094173452TF13.554323.554166447.6855733410132.8495295537870.26158608643751162122125WETL
2024-06-08 16:00:03FORECAST2024259-2746.8529.87638.36372.5119116414260.1874016760.2174016764.664.877401676TF14.85324.85166447.3553923761632.4385946842960.30136074990872162122125WETL
2024-06-08 12:00:03FORECAST2024259-2744.36630.0237.19370.2305760356950.3988191130.4588191134.625.078819113TF12.366329.366166446.4805154014131.3565837853550.22764796527635161122124WETL
2024-06-08 08:00:03FORECAST2024259-2740.76630.05635.41170.6608166247070.3035434710.3835434714.645.023543471TF8.766324.766166446.6458979119631.5603638885350.14130661364797161122124WETL
2024-06-08 04:00:06FORECAST2024259-2741.64831.47836.56370.2797384908140.3562994050.4062994054.635.036299405TF9.648328.648166446.4994223710931.3798626405390.16008199791388161122124WETL
2024-06-08 00:00:03FORECAST2024259-2745.91432.70239.30868.7489008836250.0976378480.1176378484.674.787637848TF13.914333.914166445.9095813337930.6557936101760.27235959231633162122125WETL
2024-06-07 20:00:05FORECAST2024259-2745.01430.70437.85974.3958384302940.0854331170.1054331174.674.775433117TF13.014324.014166448.0740536939333.3348449034210.24584554026881161122124WETL
2024-06-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024259-2746.65232.48639.56975.3090146404240.0795276020.3195276024.674.989527602TF14.652316.652166448.4211674029733.7701562610260.29511117165025162122125WETL
2024-06-07 12:00:03FORECAST2024259-2741.59430.21835.90674.5564995877780.2003938090.5903938094.685.270393809TF9.594303.594166448.1351820937533.4113905190410.15888775512809161123126WETL
2024-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2024259-2742.7130.41636.56373.5045255618980.2000001080.5200001084.695.210000108TF10.71308.71166447.7344732883832.9105100367680.18475300404604161123126WETL
2024-06-07 04:00:14FORECAST2024259-2742.99830.54236.7773.2155620894330.2000001080.5200001084.695.210000108TF10.998309.998166447.6242162566132.773058598070.19182987044465161123126WETL
2024-06-07 00:00:04FORECAST2024259-2741.95430.03835.99674.6972242276820.4275592860.9475592864.735.677559286TF9.954297.954166448.1887045518133.4784521602210.16695963349381161123126WETL
2024-06-06 20:00:02FORECAST2024259-2740.7329.22834.97979.4809961353790.4102364420.9902364424.75.690236442TF8.73296.73166449.9968064920835.766194437730.14057327307912161124128WETL
2024-06-06 16:00:04FORECAST2024259-2743.80828.07635.94279.1619505556250.440945121.100945124.725.82094512TF11.808301.808166449.8769007495835.6131329732560.21260397190189161124128WETL
2024-06-06 12:00:04FORECAST2024259-2744.70830.50637.60775.6682020140.1425197620.6725197624.645.312519762TF12.708304.708166448.5574801216133.9415380207330.23715650908781161123126WETL
2024-06-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024259-2769.67432.01850.84672.9594700696580.0137795350.4537795354.625.073779535TF37.674340.674166447.5264340080532.6512914673910.94039261482671651221116WETL
2024-06-06 04:00:04FORECAST2024259-2769.67433.09851.38671.70929084010.0145669370.1545669374.624.774566937TF37.674344.674166447.0481705292532.0575072800170.94039261482671651221116WETL
2024-06-06 00:00:03FORECAST2024259-2740.4631.15435.80771.5374788150560.015748040.045748044.664.70574804TF8.46323.46166446.9823240404231.9759885367460.135155374504161121122WETL
2024-06-05 20:00:03FORECAST2024259-2737.09427.71632.40574.3211966534930.0153543390.0353543394.624.655354339TF5.094312.094166448.0456454829533.299288527680.079385626623276161121122WETL
2024-06-05 16:00:04FORECAST2024259-2736.75229.98433.36872.120260640590.0267716680.0767716684.624.696771668TF4.752328.752166447.2055570574532.2525813349040.074874532380217161121122WETL
2024-06-05 12:00:03FORECAST2024259-2741.93633.8937.91369.213970647739004.624.62TF9.936356.936166446.0890181469430.8755922083010.16654988007703161121122WETL
2024-06-05 08:00:04FORECAST2024259-2736.8635.63636.24870.2228658477390.1401575560.1801575564.624.800157556TF4.86336.86166446.4775499917531.3529330970980.076277526957343161122124WETL
2024-06-05 04:00:05FORECAST2024259-2736.8636.66236.76172.4307450614550.0874016220.1374016224.885.017401622TF4.86336.86166447.3243524316632.4000361307580.076277526957343161122124WETL