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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 12, 2024

[ Tuesday, June 11, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, June 13, 2024 ]

DAY 256 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/13/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.79°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.72°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.445
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 329

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.88 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.88 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 73 in
SWE DAY: 163
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 439.83 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 25.42 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -30

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-06-13 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024256-3051.7899229.6499240.7199257.7853175004.884.88TF19.78992328.78992163439.82573004897 25.4154694555490.4449446352256616 2121122.5WETL
2024-06-13 00:00:01FORECAST2024256-2950.73829.85840.29864.917108004.884.88TF18.738327.738164443.2522055156528.7746512966980.406360179192162121122.5WETL
2024-06-12 12:00:01FORECAST2024256-2949.94630.72240.33465.929939028643004.884.88TF17.946326.946164443.6495397026829.2497871026830.37787745461725162121122.5WETL
2024-06-12 08:00:02FORECAST2024256-2950.12631.17240.64965.904650228643004.884.88TF18.126327.126164443.6396313294929.2379147303340.384298864909162121122.5WETL
2024-06-12 04:00:03FORECAST2024256-2950.57630.48840.53265.458033980202004.884.88TF18.576327.576164443.4645382596829.0283168144170.40048828018002162121122.5WETL
2024-06-12 00:00:02FORECAST2024256-3051.5330.0240.77571.40499361242300.014.884.89TF19.53327.53163445.2006419474631.7895489945050.43534729282318162121122.5WETL
2024-06-11 20:00:02FORECAST2024256-3051.49429.60640.5573.786334400.014.884.89TF19.494325.494163446.1214724620332.9176681501040.43402088673917162121122.5WETL
2024-06-11 16:00:01FORECAST2024256-3051.58430.07440.82973.777084800.014.884.89TF19.584325.584163446.1179065378532.9132786214410.437338261895162121122.5WETL
2024-06-11 12:00:02FORECAST2024256-3051.33230.45240.89272.448389600.014.884.89TF19.332325.332163445.6047939435332.2833497192490.42806145754231162121122.5WETL
2024-06-11 08:00:01FORECAST2024256-3051.7130.77641.24372.410702400.014.884.89TF19.71325.71163445.5902147128232.2655004299220.44198994558864162121122.5WETL
2024-06-11 04:00:03FORECAST2024256-3051.74630.07440.9172.25887735288800.014.884.89TF19.746325.746163445.5314673075732.193603653030.44332049753638162121122.5WETL
2024-06-11 00:00:02FORECAST2024256-3051.09830.00240.5571.5570466300500.014.884.89TF19.098323.098163445.2596052918631.8614623383470.41948262327982162121122.5WETL
2024-06-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024256-3050.91829.24640.08275.6078994300500.014.884.89TF18.918321.918163446.82209552333.7832800614270.41290923851153162121122.5WETL
2024-06-10 16:00:02FORECAST2024256-3050.14429.35439.74975.6820896004.884.88TF18.144321.144163446.8505624190633.8185843028090.38494278811301162121122.5WETL
2024-06-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024256-3049.1928.9439.06573.900066462801004.884.88TF17.19320.19163446.1653118255532.9716461973040.35129273463279162121122.5WETL
2024-06-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024256-3049.56829.06639.31773.8285423429600.024.884.9TF17.568320.568163446.1377434887832.9376992859540.36450366189689162121122.5WETL
2024-06-10 04:00:05FORECAST2024256-3049.87429.91239.89373.72764122443400.024.884.9TF17.874321.874163446.0988435313532.8898154865140.37531819475045162121122.5WETL
2024-06-10 00:00:04FORECAST2024256-3049.02831.0140.01971.488281600.024.884.9TF17.028317.028163445.2329423072331.8289379572560.34568433709987162121122.5WETL
2024-06-09 20:00:01FORECAST2024256-3048.77631.17239.97475.57159344540300.034.884.91TF16.776316.776163446.8081628991133.7660048346990.33702743357764162121122.5WETL
2024-06-09 16:00:01FORECAST2024256-3048.3831.139.7475.56116304540300.034.884.91TF16.38316.38163446.8041599374133.7610419783950.32359779160659162121122.5WETL
2024-06-09 12:00:02FORECAST2024256-3048.12830.54239.33573.66590866264200.044.884.92TF16.128317.128163446.0750391364732.8605230897120.31516828718909162121122.5WETL
2024-06-09 08:00:03FORECAST2024256-3046.63429.94838.29173.73223026264200.034.884.91TF14.634314.634163446.1006129391532.8919931135350.26725928727118162121122.5WETL
2024-06-09 04:00:04FORECAST2024256-3048.07430.36239.21873.52398926529100.044.884.92TF16.074318.074163446.0203001273932.7931917586680.31337421354154162121122.5WETL
2024-06-09 00:00:02FORECAST2024256-3048.07430.36239.21870.66001729753600.044.884.92TF16.074315.074163444.9114245906431.4374489574460.31337421354154162121122.5WETL
2024-06-08 20:00:02FORECAST2024256-3047.67830.41639.04776.32085169753600.044.884.92TF15.678313.678163447.0954347432634.1227043696860.30035437900169162121122.5WETL
2024-06-08 16:00:02FORECAST2024256-3048.21831.60439.91176.33177409753600.044.884.92TF16.218312.218163447.099618440634.1279070739030.31816809590093162121122.5WETL
2024-06-08 12:00:02FORECAST2024256-3049.44233.20641.32473.417362897536004.884.88TF17.442319.442163445.9791608296832.7426138953710.36008120337176162121122.5WETL
2024-06-08 08:00:03FORECAST2024256-3049.11832.97241.04573.46961329753600.014.894.9TF17.118318.118163445.9993218203332.7673977051030.34879602918298162121122.5WETL
2024-06-08 04:00:05FORECAST2024256-3050.21633.1741.69373.55851592916004.894.89TF18.216319.216163446.033619047732.8095710716610.38752163797714162121122.5WETL
2024-06-08 00:00:02FORECAST2024256-3051.20633.31442.2673.000080800.014.924.93TF19.206321.206163445.8180550971332.5447540441890.42343758995375162121122.5WETL
2024-06-07 20:00:04FORECAST2024256-3050.32432.88241.60378.09948400.024.914.93TF18.324316.324163447.7751918216534.9710114292720.39139919920207162121122.5WETL
2024-06-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024256-3049.29831.98240.6478.494855200.024.914.93TF17.298311.298163447.9258779111935.1598769269720.3550498196106162121122.5WETL
2024-06-07 12:00:02FORECAST2024256-3047.08434.21440.64975.566963200.024.924.94TF15.084312.084163446.8063859242633.7638017226630.28129714625832162121122.5WETL
2024-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2024256-3047.28234.50240.89275.379609600.024.934.95TF15.282313.282163446.7344666645833.674669692040.28758447463557162121122.5WETL
2024-06-07 04:00:12FORECAST2024256-3047.78634.19640.99175.08363721666700.024.934.95TF15.786313.786163446.620782246833.5339127876420.30388099921734162121122.5WETL
2024-06-07 00:00:03FORECAST2024256-3046.09432.43239.26374.17393000662300.024.974.99TF14.094309.094163446.2708238060633.1016608489880.25089307638495162121122.5WETL
2024-06-06 20:00:02FORECAST2024256-3045.87832.10838.99378.29533560662300.024.944.96TF13.878308.878163447.8498547986535.0645546828380.2444981100162161121122WETL
2024-06-06 16:00:04FORECAST2024256-3046.72432.34239.53378.65568408702100.024.964.98TF14.724309.724163447.9871306339935.2367342221990.27003837763836162121122.5WETL
2024-06-06 12:00:03FORECAST2024256-3050.59433.85442.22476.7350504004.94.9TF18.594313.594163447.254007474634.3200588051650.40113963034274162121122.5WETL
2024-06-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024256-3050.88234.53842.7176.4871808004.884.88TF18.882315.882163447.159132584434.2019414203540.41159742394732162121122.5WETL
2024-06-06 04:00:04FORECAST2024256-3050.6335.5143.0775.894848366667004.884.88TF18.63315.63163446.9321685805833.9198491646090.40244315339038162121122.5WETL
2024-06-06 00:00:02FORECAST2024256-3052.75435.49244.12374.2303434477390.0027559070.0027559074.924.922755907TF20.754318.754163446.2925492154533.128449206430.48078093939556162121122.5WETL
2024-06-05 20:00:03FORECAST2024256-3052.48436.03244.25876.57058480.0027559070.0027559074.884.882755907TF20.484316.484163447.1910630760234.2416812170650.47071635370106162121122.5WETL
2024-06-05 16:00:04FORECAST2024256-3056.4839.93848.20975.23578880.0027559070.0027559074.884.882755907TF24.48325.48163446.6792350772533.6062645916170.61814389110267163121123WETL
2024-06-05 12:00:02FORECAST2024256-3057.95641.1849.56873.201827447739004.884.88TF25.956335.956163445.8959674701732.6403996703940.6695914262466163121123WETL
2024-06-05 08:00:03FORECAST2024256-3058.53241.88250.20773.535895447739004.884.88TF26.532332.532163446.0248931587732.7988399104120.68889081839506163121123WETL
2024-06-05 04:00:04FORECAST2024256-3056.4840.06448.27274.243505951772005.145.14TF24.48333.48163446.2976177862833.1346998423770.61814389110267163121123WETL
2024-06-05 00:00:03FORECAST2024256-3055.11239.34447.22874.043121096987004.954.95TF23.112339.112163446.2204359398133.0395537742420.56849596136502163121123WETL
2024-06-04 20:00:02FORECAST2024256-3054.75238.3946.57174.828023887162004.894.89TF22.752333.752163446.5225311343833.4123986258790.55521388475638163121123WETL
2024-06-04 16:00:02FORECAST2024256-3062.38442.18852.28674.840520687162004.624.62TF30.384337.384163446.5273360623633.4183383319580.80327522217085164121123.5WETL
2024-06-04 12:00:03FORECAST2024256-3063.46444.34853.90673.941845807918004.624.62TF31.464342.464163446.18141298632.991477241370.83009327583131164121123.5WETL
2024-06-04 08:00:05FORECAST2024256-3065.22844.74454.98673.741032208072004.444.44TF33.228346.228163446.1040066712232.8961699240920.86860253072675165121124WETL
2024-06-04 04:00:04FORECAST2024256-3065.49846.79656.14772.839370938988004.584.58TF33.498346.498163445.7559621114232.4685838724990.87391906286521165121124WETL
2024-06-04 00:00:05FORECAST2024256-3067.87447.58857.73177.703586691675004.654.65TF35.874327.874163447.6241535149134.7820022179340.91432837408646165121124WETL
2024-06-03 20:00:02FORECAST2024256-3063.71644.34854.03277.049722678834004.834.83TF31.716319.716163447.3743658280534.470070820670.8359974983264164121123.5WETL
2024-06-03 16:00:04FORECAST2024256-3062.31242.0852.19677.425295581333004.834.83TF30.312314.312163447.5178920656534.6492050711180.8014007854901164121123.5WETL
2024-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2024256-3058.17231.96445.06878.457502724023004.74.7TF26.172313.172163447.9116483980135.1420293743080.67688523615299163121123WETL
2024-06-03 08:00:04FORECAST2024256-3065.55242.31453.93378.241527368805004.694.69TF33.552335.552163447.8293456050635.0388520007120.87496416929355165121124WETL
2024-06-03 04:00:05FORECAST2024256-3067.9139.77653.84376.80141652801004.714.71TF35.91338.91163447.2793997240634.3516914826060.91485577987013165121124WETL
2024-06-03 00:00:03FORECAST2024256-3051.18847.35449.27176.49140914378700.014.654.66TF19.188317.188163447.160751531634.2039559984470.42277788166878162121122.5WETL
2024-06-02 20:00:03FORECAST2024256-3050.82845.69848.26377.97613735390300.064.454.51TF18.828319.828163447.7281502783434.9121117433120.40963155759513162121122.5WETL
2024-06-02 16:00:04FORECAST2024256-3051.5339.75845.64477.6639807819840.0031496080.1531496084.464.613149608TF19.53323.53163447.60903515334.7630995039650.43534729282318162122125WETL
2024-06-02 12:00:05FORECAST2024256-3043.59234.8839.23677.53100965747400.214.274.48TF11.592314.592163447.5582663091434.6996442674960.18247327909166161122124WETL
2024-06-02 08:00:05FORECAST2024256-305953.88856.44476.97076193427400.094.34.39TF27359163447.3441733354234.4324218684860.70420127587914164121123.5WETL
2024-06-02 04:00:06FORECAST2024256-3059.19856.73257.96575.13291831232100.324.344.66TF27.198360.198163446.6397172839133.557345393730.71057300129407164122127WETL