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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 11, 2024

[ Monday, June 10, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, June 12, 2024 ]

DAY 255 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/12/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.01°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.12°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.401
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 311

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.96 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.96 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 75 in
SWE DAY: 162
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 442.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 29.47 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -31

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-06-12 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024255-3149.0135.1199442.0649766.561546666667004.964.96TF17.01311.01162442.72191956255 29.4682557093190.4008936582703116 2121122.5WETL
2024-06-12 00:00:01FORECAST2024255-3047.78634.2144172.5905546710360.0051181130.0051181134.964.965118113TF15.786309.786163445.6597777049532.3506904581730.35787135891222162121122.5WETL
2024-06-11 12:00:01FORECAST2024255-3046.27433.18839.73173.66923840.0094488240.0094488244.964.969448824TF14.274308.274163446.0763231956432.8621029980950.30716790501359162121122.5WETL
2024-06-11 08:00:01FORECAST2024255-3046.05834.0740.06473.65467520.0082677210.0082677214.964.968267721TF14.058308.058163446.070707053832.8551930442820.30018883944493162121122.5WETL
2024-06-11 04:00:03FORECAST2024255-3046.25634.05240.15473.5034063166670.0110236280.0110236284.964.971023628TF14.256308.256163446.0123595443932.7834276858460.30658359506941162121122.5WETL
2024-06-11 00:00:02FORECAST2024255-3146.79632.88239.83972.72682240.0094488240.0094488244.964.969448824TF14.796305.796162445.1330491457932.3731122095970.32432086576062162121122.5WETL
2024-06-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024255-3146.79632.68439.7476.73733120.0055118140.0055118144.964.965511814TF14.796304.796162446.6813397072434.2771339059740.32432086576062162121122.5WETL
2024-06-10 16:00:02FORECAST2024255-3146.90432.82839.86676.7537640.003937010.003937014.964.96393701TF14.904304.904162446.6876513383634.2849585725390.32791836465492162121122.5WETL
2024-06-10 12:00:01FORECAST2024255-3147.19233.22440.20874.90758320.003937010.003937014.964.96393701TF15.192305.192162445.976906242133.4070522096090.337589261938162121122.5WETL
2024-06-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024255-3146.95833.49440.22674.82236880.0161417410.0161417414.964.976141741TF14.958304.958162445.9440197535733.3665879101560.32972314229661162121122.5WETL
2024-06-10 04:00:05FORECAST2024255-3147.06634.05240.55974.7686900666670.0216535550.0216535554.964.981653555TF15.066306.066162445.9233000575633.3411010155090.3333445737145162121122.5WETL
2024-06-10 00:00:03FORECAST2024255-3147.17434.57440.87472.50593440.0232283590.0232283594.964.983228359TF15.174302.174162445.04731435632.2685713795930.33698159640147162121122.5WETL
2024-06-09 20:00:01FORECAST2024255-3146.99435.22241.10876.5902155863740.0326771830.0326771834.964.992677183TF14.994301.994162446.624822718434.2070914582280.33092853563982162121122.5WETL
2024-06-09 16:00:01FORECAST2024255-3147.44435.38441.41476.5606955863740.0291338740.0291338744.964.989133874TF15.444302.444162446.6134795593334.1930386533130.34614041100312162121122.5WETL
2024-06-09 12:00:01FORECAST2024255-3147.82235.31241.56774.58268640.0377952960.0377952964.964.997795296TF15.822302.822162445.8514818061233.2528012485210.35911426815795162121122.5WETL
2024-06-09 08:00:03FORECAST2024255-3147.4835.18641.33374.58317840.0346456880.0346456884.964.994645688TF15.48302.48162445.85167181833.253034779140.34736855515057162121122.5WETL
2024-06-09 04:00:04FORECAST2024255-3147.58835.97841.78374.479628750.0417323060.0417323064.965.001732306TF15.588303.588162445.8116753984133.2038880760890.35106256363384162121122.5WETL
2024-06-09 00:00:01FORECAST2024255-3147.58835.97841.78371.61563120.0417323060.0417323064.965.001732306TF15.588300.588162444.701266735331.8475619126880.35106256363384162121122.5WETL
2024-06-08 20:00:02FORECAST2024255-3147.76835.85241.8177.2741040.035433090.035433094.964.99543309TF15.768299.768162446.8873711851534.5328211972480.35725046762974162121122.5WETL
2024-06-08 16:00:02FORECAST2024255-3148.36236.6842.52177.36325440.0377952960.0377952964.964.997795296TF16.362298.362162446.921562917934.5753065688630.37793018769229162121122.5WETL
2024-06-08 12:00:02FORECAST2024255-3150.55837.88644.22274.59132640.0019685050.0019685054.964.961968505TF18.558303.558162445.8548185654733.256902298630.45700873434386162121122.5WETL
2024-06-08 08:00:02FORECAST2024255-3150.82837.61644.22274.60215040.0074803190.0174803194.964.977480319TF18.828302.828162445.858998680133.2620400767260.46691786404378162121122.5WETL
2024-06-08 04:00:05FORECAST2024255-3150.938.1244.5174.8067641666670.003937010.013937014.964.97393701TF18.9302.9162445.9379967421233.3591785552440.46956402210796162121122.5WETL
2024-06-08 00:00:02FORECAST2024255-3150.77437.77844.27674.33438480.0149606380.0549606384.965.014960638TF18.774303.774162445.7555566785133.1349650768780.46493419813929162121122.5WETL
2024-06-07 20:00:03FORECAST2024255-3148.79437.20242.99879.34365360.0192913490.0492913494.965.009291349TF16.794299.794162447.6791098520435.5204962160560.39319671950686162121122.5WETL
2024-06-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024255-3147.62436.06841.84679.64790640.0192913490.0492913494.965.009291349TF15.624295.624162447.7951560270735.6659466736170.35229705325545162121122.5WETL
2024-06-07 12:00:02FORECAST2024255-3150.1836.3243.2576.62122080.0181102460.0581102464.965.018110246TF18.18299.18162446.6367356600434.2218519403990.44318209907207162121122.5WETL
2024-06-07 08:00:02FORECAST2024255-3149.83836.543.16976.45138240.0185039470.0685039474.965.028503947TF17.838299.838162446.5714681937834.1410060838120.43073115612616162121122.5WETL
2024-06-07 04:00:11FORECAST2024255-3149.69438.06643.8876.2034292166670.0185039470.0685039474.965.028503947TF17.694299.694162446.4761313016734.0230122685780.42550844626847162121122.5WETL
2024-06-07 00:00:03FORECAST2024255-3149.60437.00443.30475.10572320.0173228440.1073228444.965.067322844TF17.604296.604162446.0533461914733.5011591514910.42225081604051162122125WETL
2024-06-06 20:00:02FORECAST2024255-3150.66637.09443.8879.2259480.0181102460.0781102464.965.038110246TF18.666296.666162447.6341912640535.4642431601070.46096952843615162121122.5WETL
2024-06-06 16:00:03FORECAST2024255-3152.05237.47244.76279.59357040.0181102460.0981102464.965.058110246TF20.052297.052162447.7744381115535.6399662631520.51200588809638163122126WETL
2024-06-06 12:00:03FORECAST2024255-3152.82637.52645.17678.11353600.024.964.98TF20.826296.826162447.2090108460334.9330771682460.54047473927427163121123WETL
2024-06-06 08:00:02FORECAST2024255-3153.52838.15645.84277.897056004.964.96TF21.528298.528162447.1261292347734.8298091280640.56612091176902163121123WETL
2024-06-06 04:00:04FORECAST2024255-3153.70838.85846.28377.324895566667004.964.96TF21.708298.708162446.9068521552334.5570256709310.57265664639185163121123WETL
2024-06-06 00:00:02FORECAST2024255-3155.14839.66847.40875.76744984773900.044.965TF23.148300.148162446.3083535071933.8156457909830.62408348081487163121123WETL
2024-06-05 20:00:03FORECAST2024255-3154.98639.86647.42678.1483304004.964.96TF22.986297.986162447.2223279920434.9496782501790.6183886607092163121123WETL
2024-06-05 16:00:03FORECAST2024255-3158.29842.3550.32477.3562104004.964.96TF26.298303.298162446.9188616237734.5719494914970.72819132909281164121123.5WETL
2024-06-05 12:00:02FORECAST2024255-3161.37642.96252.16975.503501847739004.964.96TF29.376312.376162446.2066881591133.6901675038950.81377458737048164121123.5WETL
2024-06-05 08:00:03FORECAST2024255-3161.21442.38651.875.876733047739004.964.96TF29.214308.214162446.3504263750133.8676121478010.80973308703216164121123.5WETL
2024-06-05 04:00:04FORECAST2024255-3161.26841.7251.49476.35172595177200.145.085.22TF29.268311.268162446.5331579507534.0935773042350.81108618802075164122127WETL
2024-06-05 00:00:03FORECAST2024255-3164.50845.24854.87875.99616429698700.154.885.03TF32.508317.508162446.3963927800333.9244136072930.88131681318557165122128WETL
2024-06-04 20:00:02FORECAST2024255-3163.46443.8853.67276.68247028716200.144.834.97TF31.464313.464162446.6602664149234.2510126078180.8610392052217165122128WETL
2024-06-04 16:00:02FORECAST2024255-3163.71642.06252.88977.442610287162004.74.7TF31.716308.716162446.9519916617834.6131289073340.86613673999241165121124WETL
2024-06-04 12:00:03FORECAST2024255-3160.47639.6550.06376.718398607918004.74.7TF28.476313.476162446.6740676109134.2681191667940.79065075604071164121123.5WETL
2024-06-04 08:00:05FORECAST2024255-3161.46640.20850.83776.731211408072004.524.52TF29.466315.466162446.6789891050634.2742199445640.81599675412691164121123.5WETL
2024-06-04 04:00:04FORECAST2024255-3161.3442.31451.82776.018970138988004.664.66TF29.34315.34162446.4051686508633.935261185560.81288109419886164121123.5WETL
2024-06-04 00:00:04FORECAST2024255-3162.74442.5352.63781.079493891675004.734.73TF30.744293.744162448.3399809431636.3511787462740.84575607770236164121123.5WETL
2024-06-03 20:00:02FORECAST2024255-3160.47641.73851.10779.938549878834004.914.91TF28.476290.476162447.9059276991735.8049503424060.79065075604071164121123.5WETL
2024-06-03 16:00:03FORECAST2024255-3158.17241.75649.96479.975921981333004.914.91TF26.172286.172162447.9201652317835.8228281884420.7243141992127164121123.5WETL
2024-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2024255-3156.0339.1147.5780.325331524023004.784.78TF24.03289.03162448.0532133220535.9900229004980.65458781199537163121123WETL
2024-06-03 08:00:04FORECAST2024255-3161.01641.14451.0880.971241768805004.774.77TF29.016304.016162448.2988522075536.2993147467750.80472109413717164121123.5WETL
2024-06-03 04:00:05FORECAST2024255-3162.25840.65851.45879.36995172801004.794.79TF30.258305.258162447.6891438585435.5330657372060.83483565801099164121123.5WETL
2024-06-03 00:00:03FORECAST2024255-3161.91642.04451.9877.20579314378700.024.724.74TF29.916299.916162446.8611667748534.500270806010.82685886169767164121123.5WETL
2024-06-02 20:00:03FORECAST2024255-3161.1642.31451.73778.6309893539030.0374015950.0774015954.514.587401595TF29.16303.16162447.4069386628235.1800502308580.80837406191212164121123.5WETL
2024-06-02 16:00:04FORECAST2024255-3162.88843.1653.02478.1338407819840.1401575560.1501575564.544.690157556TF30.888305.888162447.2167824047434.9427648714430.84889813753274164122127WETL
2024-06-02 12:00:04FORECAST2024255-3161.32238.33649.82977.7728768574740.1192914030.2592914034.34.559291403TF29.322305.322162447.0785653902234.770586211710.81243335723796164122127WETL
2024-06-02 08:00:05FORECAST2024255-3176.76644.72660.74678.03348193427400.134.344.47TF44.766333.766162447.1783666276534.8948849936370.989803325011431651221116WETL
2024-06-02 04:00:06FORECAST2024255-3176.76640.22658.49675.5587935123210.0988189510.3588189514.384.738818951TF44.766334.766162446.2279905975333.7164486009770.989803325011431651221116WETL
2024-06-02 00:00:03FORECAST2024255-3153.3344.47448.90276.17835290403500.014.124.13TF21.33314.33162446.4664862277434.0110815476810.55891073629962163121123WETL
2024-06-01 20:00:03FORECAST2024255-3153.5145.80649.65878.01784524690900.024.264.28TF21.51321.51162447.1723802696434.8874255625690.56546631233485163121123WETL
2024-06-01 16:00:04FORECAST2024255-3153.43839.70446.57177.85580487903004.14.1TF21.438304.438162447.1103306455134.8101346621350.56284613713889163121123WETL
2024-06-01 12:00:03FORECAST2024255-3157.07452.08854.58176.961205336775004.234.23TF25.074321.074162446.7673042889334.3837502431380.68942592395577163121123WETL
2024-06-01 08:00:04FORECAST2024255-3147.19236.84242.01779.528290064003004.194.19TF15.192292.192162447.7495434235.608755565130.337589261938162121122.5WETL
2024-06-01 04:00:05FORECAST2024255-3139.23637.41838.32779.03386225428700.014.24.21TF7.236297.236162447.5608590195735.3724632821630.12412029518533161121122WETL