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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 13, 2024

[ Wednesday, June 12, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, June 14, 2024 ]

DAY 257 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/14/2024 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.60°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.10°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.85°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.699
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 25
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 347

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.78 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.78 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 72 in
SWE DAY: 164
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 426.98 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 10.90 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -29

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-06-14 04:00:04OBSERVATION2024257-2956.6000637.0999446.8525.538006666667004.784.78TF24.60006346.60006164426.98383808447 10.904316103560.69921369583516 4121123.5WETL
2024-06-14 00:00:02FORECAST2024257-2852.8836.7744.82554.4249112004.784.78TF20.88342.88165439.677793136523.9294248480660.56253220993522163121123WETL
2024-06-13 12:00:02FORECAST2024257-2854.17637.83246.00456.325724004.784.78TF22.176344.176165440.439859026524.8080939381250.61197171242392163121123WETL
2024-06-13 08:00:01FORECAST2024257-2854.15837.09445.62656.3711848004.784.78TF22.158344.158165440.458039967324.8291415676420.61129538465835163121123WETL
2024-06-13 04:00:04FORECAST2024257-2854.82436.08645.45556.1532551004.784.78TF22.824344.824165440.3708651931424.7282575317980.63607870249979163121123WETL
2024-06-13 00:00:02FORECAST2024257-2955.56234.8845.22163.3622896004.784.78TF23.562344.562164442.6402568849728.0467001453640.6628876560248163121123WETL
2024-06-12 20:00:02FORECAST2024257-2954.5935.07844.83465.454628004.784.78TF22.59342.59164443.4632022034329.0267189319140.62742971273625163121123WETL
2024-06-12 16:00:01FORECAST2024257-2953.54635.0644.30365.468896004.784.78TF21.546341.546164443.4687990027629.0334126811560.58811232097705163121123WETL
2024-06-12 12:00:01FORECAST2024257-2954.57235.2444.90664.346683028643004.784.78TF22.572342.572164443.0279771070128.5073808157260.62676167327492163121123WETL
2024-06-12 08:00:02FORECAST2024257-2954.28436.35645.3264.264125428643004.784.78TF22.284342.284164442.9954976109228.4687182227930.6160224851097163121123WETL
2024-06-12 04:00:03FORECAST2024257-2954.9537.1346.0463.753352380202004.784.78TF22.95343.95164442.7943997365528.2296273983850.64070762861912163121123WETL
2024-06-12 00:00:02FORECAST2024257-2955.43637.25646.34669.64501121242300.014.784.79TF23.436344.436164445.098244806730.9988722501930.65836416172748163121123WETL
2024-06-11 20:00:03FORECAST2024257-2955.6736.6846.17572.037372800.014.784.79TF23.67341.67164446.0239443122432.1303931541480.66674632152122163121123WETL
2024-06-11 16:00:02FORECAST2024257-2956.5737.05846.81471.986795200.014.784.79TF24.57343.57164446.0044319818832.1064297033720.69818687450521163121123WETL
2024-06-11 12:00:02FORECAST2024257-2956.69636.55446.62570.592368800.014.784.79TF24.696342.696164445.4654878547131.4464640063120.70248033218378164121123.5WETL
2024-06-11 08:00:02FORECAST2024257-2957.63236.53647.08470.506170400.014.784.79TF25.632344.632164445.4321095887931.4057122202980.73346576898325164121123.5WETL
2024-06-11 04:00:03FORECAST2024257-2958.26236.35647.30970.33545255288800.014.784.79TF26.262345.262164445.365981617931.3250178687560.75336220882412164121123.5WETL
2024-06-11 00:00:02FORECAST2024257-2957.07436.75246.91369.6996482300500.014.784.79TF25.074341.074164445.119448861131.0246690059730.71519041687434164121123.5WETL
2024-06-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024257-2956.82235.00645.91473.8450634300500.014.784.79TF24.822339.822164446.7196899239432.9880438378860.70674571421127164121123.5WETL
2024-06-10 16:00:03FORECAST2024257-2956.15634.84445.573.9599912004.784.78TF24.156338.156164446.7638155155133.0426478640060.6838880755268163121123WETL
2024-06-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024257-2955.59834.57445.08672.279418462801004.784.78TF23.598336.598164446.1172884045532.2450981720820.66417580690785163121123WETL
2024-06-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024257-2955.92234.03444.97872.2207847429600.024.784.8TF23.922337.922164446.0946817753232.2173079874750.67568099671849163121123WETL
2024-06-10 04:00:05FORECAST2024257-2955.99435.04245.51872.05700602443400.024.784.8TF23.994338.994164446.0315179377932.139695775130.67821558996956163121123WETL
2024-06-10 00:00:04FORECAST2024257-2955.29235.38445.33869.78950400.024.784.8TF23.292333.292164445.1543145458931.0670988156180.6531665149765163121123WETL
2024-06-09 20:00:01FORECAST2024257-2955.07635.34845.21273.88983904540300.034.784.81TF23.076333.076164446.7368826924433.009316357790.64531600346147163121123WETL
2024-06-09 16:00:02FORECAST2024257-2955.34634.23244.78973.83758864540300.034.784.81TF23.346332.346164446.7168195944332.9844927661960.65511907432202163121123WETL
2024-06-09 12:00:02FORECAST2024257-2956.60633.2644.93371.95266626264200.044.784.82TF24.606334.606164445.9912639639532.0902605720520.69941641418581164121123.5WETL
2024-06-09 08:00:03FORECAST2024257-2956.4833.845.1472.02056226264200.034.784.81TF24.48332.48164446.017459253832.1224281944140.69510319152038163121123WETL
2024-06-09 04:00:04FORECAST2024257-2955.99435.1545.57271.72317086529100.044.784.82TF23.994334.994164445.9026877665431.9815546639720.67821558996956163121123WETL
2024-06-09 00:00:02FORECAST2024257-2955.99435.1545.57268.85919889753600.044.784.82TF23.994331.994164444.7929535405230.6280864560690.67821558996956163121123WETL
2024-06-08 20:00:03FORECAST2024257-2956.17434.86245.51874.49356369753600.044.784.82TF24.174331.174164446.9685077401633.2962770021340.68451572208334163121123WETL
2024-06-08 16:00:02FORECAST2024257-2956.62435.646.11274.45548289753600.044.784.82TF24.624329.624164446.9539081504933.2781690642860.70003033554428164121123.5WETL
2024-06-08 12:00:02FORECAST2024257-2956.62434.59245.60871.595191697536004.784.78TF24.624336.624164445.8532704116231.9209503640930.70003033554428164121123.5WETL
2024-06-08 08:00:03FORECAST2024257-2956.67834.95245.81571.61949649753600.014.794.8TF24.678335.678164445.8626566038931.9324589730240.70186868909277164121123.5WETL
2024-06-08 04:00:05FORECAST2024257-2957.9234.98846.45471.65250792916004.794.79TF25.92337.92164445.8754042541731.9480909387390.74266083718946164121123.5WETL
2024-06-08 00:00:02FORECAST2024257-2956.35435.13245.74371.137368800.014.824.83TF24.354338.354164445.6763569631431.7042433707280.6907627114926163121123WETL
2024-06-07 20:00:04FORECAST2024257-2955.45434.26844.86176.349243200.024.814.83TF23.454332.454164447.6782382054134.1798946840920.65901178725975163121123WETL
2024-06-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024257-2951.04432.84641.94577.17245760.0149606380.0349606384.814.844960638TF19.044323.044164447.9920184218834.5726450468010.4909759266864162121122.5WETL
2024-06-07 12:00:02FORECAST2024257-2950.25230.48840.3774.41361680.0149606380.0349606384.824.854960638TF18.252323.252164446.9378557065333.258262327960.46006293403823162121122.5WETL
2024-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2024257-2950.07230.86640.46974.2467104665520.0153543390.0353543394.834.865354339TF18.072324.072164446.8738429321333.1789128312580.45306408146533162121122.5WETL
2024-06-07 04:00:13FORECAST2024257-2950.14431.06440.60473.9299956166670.0153543390.0353543394.834.865354339TF18.144325.144164446.7523001950933.0283955951580.45586199686361162121122.5WETL
2024-06-07 00:00:03FORECAST2024257-2947.28230.66838.97573.341710022520.0291338740.0491338744.874.919133874TF15.282317.282164446.526279615532.7490009169950.34772250631843162121122.5WETL
2024-06-06 20:00:02FORECAST2024257-2947.62430.90239.26377.4561380847670.0291338740.0491338744.844.889133874TF15.624317.624164448.0999954768334.7080951254370.36019266419222162121122.5WETL
2024-06-06 16:00:04FORECAST2024257-2948.16429.78638.97577.7872092381920.2503938360.2703938364.865.130393836TF16.164319.164164448.2259124554234.866242838150.38018389203674162122125WETL
2024-06-06 12:00:04FORECAST2024257-2943.80830.59637.20275.9910641590890.3165356040.3165356044.85.116535604TF11.808318.808164447.5415080501534.0091554520940.23204549252405161122124WETL
2024-06-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024257-2946.63431.96439.29975.53722720.3181104080.3181104084.785.098110408TF14.634323.634164447.368082980333.7929445261120.324549967932162122125WETL
2024-06-06 04:00:04FORECAST2024257-2948.63233.11640.87474.7785003666670.0736220870.0736220874.784.853622087TF16.632325.632164447.077703249233.4318001963490.39777457822918162121122.5WETL
2024-06-06 00:00:03FORECAST2024257-2953.11432.4542.78272.753261047739004.824.82TF21.114333.114164446.299858141232.4697700849160.57155538676797163121123WETL
2024-06-05 20:00:03FORECAST2024257-2951.24231.69441.46875.2084336004.784.78TF19.242328.242164447.242315886833.6363940174830.49871994968854162121122.5WETL
2024-06-05 16:00:04FORECAST2024257-2956.24636.64446.44573.2738896004.784.78TF24.246342.246164446.50020114632.716806445150.68702097870677163121123WETL
2024-06-05 12:00:03FORECAST2024257-2957.36236.98647.17471.205193047739004.784.78TF25.362354.362164445.7025788177731.7363381665940.7246972005124164121123.5WETL
2024-06-05 08:00:04FORECAST2024257-2957.43436.2346.83271.590625847739004.784.78TF25.434351.434164445.8515070761731.918788426740.72704928736533164121123.5WETL
2024-06-05 04:00:05FORECAST2024257-2955.63435.43845.53672.458628351772005.045.04TF23.634349.634164446.1863631279332.3300518615160.66546203310593163121123WETL
2024-06-05 00:00:03FORECAST2024257-2952.2534.62843.43972.5193970969870.0007874020.0007874024.854.850787402TF20.25352.25164446.2097787170132.3588641313380.53808991636799163121123WETL
2024-06-04 20:00:03FORECAST2024257-2953.07834.35843.71873.276551087162004.794.79TF21.078348.078164446.5012246320432.718069797230.5701695154245163121123WETL
2024-06-04 16:00:02FORECAST2024257-2956.51632.93644.72673.013035887162004.524.52TF24.516354.516164446.3998551795232.5930086462460.69633834348715163121123WETL
2024-06-04 12:00:04FORECAST2024257-2957.23634.37645.80672.176353007918004.524.52TF25.236360.236164446.077548575432.1962506148850.72055722343668164121123.5WETL
2024-06-04 08:00:06FORECAST2024257-2955.09438.96647.0371.791531408072004.344.34TF23.094362.094164445.9290776470332.0139313836690.64597262950447163121123WETL
2024-06-04 04:00:04FORECAST2024257-2953.13238.98446.05870.842244538988004.484.48TF21.132360.132164445.5622049624231.5646266812790.57224799282391163121123WETL
2024-06-04 00:00:05FORECAST2024257-2951.00839.3845.19477.069497091675004.554.55TF19.008340.008164447.952809406134.5234977417310.48956820235162121122.5WETL
2024-06-03 20:00:02FORECAST2024257-2946.54428.59837.57176.699517078834004.734.73TF14.544327.544164447.8118304167334.3469511351520.32138207864881162121122.5WETL
2024-06-03 16:00:04FORECAST2024257-2942.15228.59835.37577.191497181333004.734.73TF10.152317.152164447.9992678770234.5817342235680.18551330466549161121122WETL
2024-06-03 12:00:04FORECAST2024257-2938.2130.9234.56578.392066724023004.64.6TF6.21312.21164448.455685895835.1553680515110.10001686805777161121122WETL
2024-06-03 08:00:05FORECAST2024257-2945.84237.68841.76577.876660168805004.594.59TF13.842342.842164448.2599153479634.9089850948510.29713087428369162121122.5WETL
2024-06-03 04:00:05FORECAST2024257-2940.8240.22640.52376.66168852801004.614.61TF8.82340.82164447.7974085742934.3289054597730.15262588406949161121122WETL