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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 24, 2024

[ Thursday, May 23, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, May 25, 2024 ]

DAY 237 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/24/2024 12:00:01 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.80°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.47°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.64°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.154
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 215

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.13 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.68 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.93 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.61 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 106 in
SWE DAY: 144
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.05 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 47.38 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -48

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-24 12:00:01FORECAST2024237-4838.80428.47233.638105.746743333560.1307087320.6807087321.932.610708732FF6.804214.804145448.0487756930447.3796988841290.15386155050652161123126DRYL
2024-05-24 08:00:02FORECAST2024237-4837.9428.45433.197105.75100637020.1161417950.6661417951.932.596141795FF5.94213.94145448.0503982902647.3817805237640.13659847435424161123126DRYL
2024-05-24 04:00:09FORECAST2024237-4838.37228.72433.548105.227293766670.0909449310.6409449311.932.570944931FF6.372214.372145447.850931213547.1261415024780.14505769105615161123126DRYL
2024-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2024237-4938.89429.24634.07104.283542592420.0523622330.6023622331.932.532362233FF6.894217.894144446.9181706975846.6062100892660.15573917354423161123126DRYL
2024-05-23 20:00:01FORECAST2024237-4938.69629.04833.872104.719033347950.0523622330.6023622331.932.532362233FF6.696217.696144447.0850863888846.8183180709310.1516282068602161123126DRYL
2024-05-23 16:00:02FORECAST2024237-4938.80429.26434.034104.680751415030.043307110.593307111.932.52330711FF6.804217.804144447.0704210204246.7996676078510.15386155050652161123126DRYL
2024-05-23 12:00:01FORECAST2024237-4938.85829.22834.043104.26087150750.0657480670.6157480671.932.545748067FF6.858217.858144446.909476225746.5951714762520.15498632366196161123126DRYL
2024-05-23 08:00:02FORECAST2024237-4938.94829.31834.133104.195216577270.0645669640.6145669641.932.544566964FF6.948217.948144446.884294414446.5632058414870.15687295050651161123126DRYL
2024-05-23 04:00:04FORECAST2024237-4941.0929.5735.33103.542343616670.0283464720.5783464721.932.508346472FF9.09220.09144446.6336577169146.2454956580930.20618176756233161123126DRYL
2024-05-23 00:00:03FORECAST2024237-4941.19829.10235.15102.343303870660.0358267910.3858267911.932.315826791FF9.198220.198144446.1722646072945.6627436553660.2088891140725161122124DRYL
2024-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2024237-4941.66629.37235.51999.9970390951970.0358267910.3158267911.932.245826791FF9.666222.666144445.265341541644.5252157658720.22086005701971161122124DRYL
2024-05-22 16:00:01FORECAST2024237-4942.09830.00236.0599.8921727881580.0507874290.3307874291.932.260787429FF10.098224.098144445.2246802948544.4744606935660.23225004873697161122124DRYL
2024-05-22 12:00:02FORECAST2024237-4940.9129.87635.393100.880345989910.0318897810.3118897811.932.241889781FF8.91222.91144445.6074087125644.953029566590.20171594128263161122124DRYL
2024-05-22 08:00:02FORECAST2024237-4939.99230.21835.105101.048258436610.0755905920.3555905921.932.285590592FF7.992220.992144445.6723472904145.0344145270510.17985359123484161122124DRYL
2024-05-22 04:00:03FORECAST2024237-4939.68629.91234.799101.49236168430.1173228980.4973228981.932.427322898FF7.686220.686144445.8439666561745.2497571186310.17290918296908161123126DRYL
2024-05-22 00:00:03FORECAST2024237-4940.129.8434.97109.481404271410.114173290.524173291.912.43417329FF8.1221.1144448.8984177280749.1460291480810.18234571542288161123126DRYL
2024-05-21 20:00:03FORECAST2024237-4938.60629.26433.935105.596533549120.0783464990.5783464991.952.528346499FF6.606220.606144447.4208559570647.2460914266470.14978358405377161123126DRYL
2024-05-21 16:00:02FORECAST2024237-4938.9329.46234.196105.840224923920.0874016220.5674016221.952.517401622FF6.93220.93144447.5139701288747.3649792550370.15649442454266161123126DRYL
2024-05-21 12:00:02FORECAST2024237-4938.9327.35633.143108.099991292560.2791340090.6391340091.952.589134009FF6.93220.93144448.3746843225748.4692994710730.15649442454266161123126DRYL
2024-05-21 08:00:03FORECAST2024237-4937.32827.21232.27109.245208644450.2027560150.5427560152.042.582756015FF5.328217.328144448.8089993618249.030232776790.12520070312101161123126DRYL
2024-05-21 04:00:04FORECAST2024237-4937.0428.1332.585108.839619343170.2295276830.5895276831.912.499527683FF5.04215.04144448.6553271435748.831475022590.12007278073709161123126DRYL
2024-05-21 00:00:03FORECAST2024237-4937.16627.73432.45107.728728985870.2535434440.6735434441.792.463543444FF5.166216.166144448.233614509648.287637579860.12229779516451161123126DRYL
2024-05-20 20:00:02FORECAST2024237-4937.52628.18432.855105.361190663960.2732284940.7132284941.652.363228494FF5.526215.526144447.3308770087147.1313138223920.12881339661805161123126DRYL
2024-05-20 16:00:02FORECAST2024237-4935.9626.63631.298108.741050366610.2732284940.7632284941.662.423228494FF3.96213.96144448.6179567932148.7831878350180.10216263844044161123126DRYL
2024-05-20 12:00:03FORECAST2024237-4937.47228.95833.215107.733660327720.5413388750.8813388751.632.511338875FF5.472217.472144448.2354891603948.2900499360340.12782104203647161123126DRYL
2024-05-20 11:39:18FORECAST2024237-4937.47228.95833.215107.733660327720.5413388750.8813388751.632.511338875FF5.472217.472144448.2354891603948.2900499360340.12782104203647161123126DRYL
2024-05-20 08:00:03FORECAST2024237-4937.32829.26433.2963.52106107160560.4259844820.6959844821.512.205984482FF5.328216.328144402.881154615551.41856915000030.125200703121011611234224DRYL
2024-05-20 04:00:04FORECAST2024237-4935.90626.92431.415NAN0.429134090.689134091.552.23913409FF3.906216.906144NANNAN0.101320947029921611235230DRYL
2024-05-20 00:00:03FORECAST2024237-4936.73428.81432.774100.128775155010.2027560150.4627560151.592.052756015FF4.734255.734144445.3164060185744.5889862910720.11478802090232161122124DRYL
2024-05-19 20:00:02FORECAST2024237-4937.1328.92233.02698.9026049505040.1606300080.3206300081.611.930630008FF5.13257.13144444.8404478441743.9958790791370.12165915299863161122124DRYL
2024-05-19 16:00:03FORECAST2024237-4938.06629.42633.74699.5518479393350.169291430.379291431.662.03929143FF6.066255.066144445.0926468556144.3097954986860.13903023825248161122124DRYL
2024-05-19 12:00:03FORECAST2024237-4938.9329.10234.016101.685011803540.2192914570.8592914571.662.519291457FF6.93251.93144445.9183542315145.3432131134480.15649442454266161123126DRYL
2024-05-19 08:00:03FORECAST2024237-4937.99428.81433.404104.205220036590.3051182750.9151182751.572.485118275FF5.994251.994144446.888131491546.568076073810.13763708440053161123126DRYL
2024-05-19 04:00:04FORECAST2024237-4938.49829.64234.07101.832093288370.287401730.907401731.582.48740173FF6.498252.498144445.9751219897645.4145802267520.14758982180675161123126DRYL
2024-05-19 00:00:02FORECAST2024237-4936.82428.95832.891106.42510811770.1700788320.6100788321.82.410078832FF4.824249.824144447.7372182428347.6504818598130.11632494267726161123126DRYL
2024-05-18 20:00:03FORECAST2024237-4937.05828.74232.9103.721581281120.3649608270.7549608271.812.564960827FF5.058250.058144446.7025081129746.332690503720.12038888682792161123126DRYL
2024-05-18 16:00:03FORECAST2024237-4936.7728.1332.45104.847165305230.3480316840.6980316841.822.518031684FF4.77249.77144447.1341618960846.8807493859350.11540105245199161123126DRYL
2024-05-18 12:00:03FORECAST2024237-4937.36427.10432.234103.33218140380.0696850770.7696850771.742.509685077FF5.364256.364144446.5528883691746.1432840673520.12585225493705161123126DRYL
2024-05-18 08:00:04FORECAST2024237-4938.3927.6833.035103.542267425220.1003937550.7903937551.772.560393755FF6.39258.39144446.633628442946.2454585973330.14541762781885161123126DRYL
2024-05-18 04:00:05FORECAST2024237-4937.77828.4933.134101.937619852620.1633859150.7833859151.52.283385915FF5.778258.778144446.0158380932145.4657929517910.13351476622936161123126DRYL
2024-05-18 00:00:03FORECAST2024237-4942.38633.11637.75191.9592392884750.3389765610.5189765611.441.958976561FF10.386275.386144442.1171229148940.6567542996620.24002109551674161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 20:00:02FORECAST2024237-4940.42432.73836.58192.9483822146560.2708662880.5208662881.341.860866288FF8.424268.424144442.508024143141.1304049611050.18995040481056161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 16:00:04FORECAST2024237-4939.99230.99235.49293.1918760574510.2708662880.5208662881.351.870866288FF7.992267.992144442.6041003826241.2471064653760.17985359123484161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 12:00:04FORECAST2024237-4942.09830.3836.23993.0552293200410.2720473910.4720473911.311.782047391FF10.098269.098144442.550190505441.1816094631080.23225004873697161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 08:00:03FORECAST2024237-4941.52229.53435.52893.1884423318090.291338740.441338741.461.90133874FF9.522264.522144442.6027459381941.2454604657610.21713554630245161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 04:00:04FORECAST2024237-4941.52229.22835.37594.2016615086130.188976480.418976481.521.93897648FF9.522270.522144443.0019014852141.7315151713810.21713554630245161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 00:00:04FORECAST2024237-4943.39428.07635.73595.636593083720.0003937010.3903937011.551.940393701FF11.394271.394144443.5654350566942.421087018520.26830015691155162122125DRYL
2024-05-16 20:00:04FORECAST2024237-4944.58228.05836.3297.8586713452760.0003937010.4103937011.481.890393701FF12.582267.582144444.4340579066143.491726407330.30364895126498162122125DRYL
2024-05-16 16:00:04FORECAST2024237-4947.58829.64238.61596.5675916451450.0003937010.3603937011.41.760393701FF15.588275.588144443.9299644340642.8692475245120.40101122490627162122125DRYL
2024-05-16 12:00:04FORECAST2024237-4948.07429.94839.01195.850335224980.0003937010.3003937011.381.680393701FF16.074268.074144443.6492013290442.5239246696830.41754516775523162122125DRYL
2024-05-16 08:00:04FORECAST2024237-4945.64432.05438.84995.9908655062060.0007874020.3907874021.391.780787402FF13.644272.644144443.7042508501942.5915550678930.33689787764547162122125DRYL
2024-05-16 04:00:06FORECAST2024237-4941.30631.11836.212100.151146524450.0704724791.1404724791.362.500472479FF9.306262.306144445.3250760722844.5998169447270.21161725038858161124128DRYL
2024-05-16 00:00:04FORECAST2024237-4939.05629.01234.03492.5171132619850.0933071371.1333071370.982.113307137FF7.056267.056144442.3377109115140.9238081004480.15915671344626161124128DRYL
2024-05-15 20:00:04FORECAST2024237-4940.42428.434.41296.5050854283210.0933071371.01330713712.013307137FF8.424267.424144443.9055173189842.8391398709710.18995040481056161124128DRYL
2024-05-15 16:00:04FORECAST2024237-4940.02829.58834.80894.2042203546350.0377952960.2377952961.031.267795296FF8.028263.028144443.0029082373141.7327435853310.18068191743725161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 12:00:04FORECAST2024237-4939.68631.02835.35793.184683782690.4767719110.7367719111.412.146771911FF7.686271.686144442.6012633525241.2436587673240.17290918296908161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 08:00:03FORECAST2024237-4949.2829.60639.44393.3798357339320.0259842660.4759842661.491.965984266FF17.28279.28144442.6782236796341.3372198101930.4591468411224162122125DRYL
2024-05-15 04:00:05FORECAST2024237-4949.2827.6838.4893.1001691849530.0460630170.2560630171.451.706063017FF17.28277.28144442.5679222479841.203148437120.4591468411224162122125DRYL
2024-05-15 00:00:04FORECAST2024237-4942.1733.51237.84193.9686950603910.0110236280.0310236281.351.381023628FF10.17286.17144442.9102157690541.6196950047340.23417960487763161121122DRYL
2024-05-14 20:00:03FORECAST2024237-4943.08832.95438.02196.9825051457480.0090551230.0290551231.311.339055123FF11.088284.088144444.0921449455943.0691687323720.25954188723893162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-14 16:00:04FORECAST2024237-4943.08832.05437.57196.0560759541420.0173228440.0673228441.221.287322844FF11.088291.088144443.7297888767842.6229423034630.25954188723893162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-14 12:00:04FORECAST2024237-4943.2540.26241.75693.6240994813380.0385826980.1685826981.051.218582698FF11.25286.25144442.7744980448241.4543636527470.2641601901123162122125DRYL
2024-05-14 08:00:04FORECAST2024237-4939.12837.90438.51693.41037010005100.050.961.01FF7.128281.128144442.6902617931241.3518611937840.16069122894366161121122DRYL
2024-05-14 04:00:05FORECAST2024237-4938.9338.15638.54393.5969758166600.120.881FF6.93279.93144442.7638104435441.4413536585760.15649442454266161122124DRYL