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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 25, 2024

[ Friday, May 24, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, May 26, 2024 ]

DAY 238 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/24/2024 12:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.73°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.53°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.13°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.060
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 217

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.17 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.30 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.95 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.25 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 106 in
SWE DAY: 145
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.25 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 47.64 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -48

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-24 12:00:02FORECAST2024238-4833.72826.52830.128106.282632900820.1685040280.2985040281.952.248504028FF1.728216.728145448.2526083548647.6414674206130.059958107863846161122124DRYL
2024-05-24 08:00:03FORECAST2024238-4833.74626.58230.164106.29321003630.1704725330.2904725331.952.240472533FF1.746215.746145448.2566287163347.646635986310.06015746194129161122124DRYL
2024-05-24 04:00:10FORECAST2024238-4833.7126.9630.335105.778816994530.1673229250.2573229251.952.207322925FF1.71215.71145448.0609831402947.3953607379850.05975926979879161122124DRYL
2024-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2024238-4834.08826.65430.371104.691013447390.1244095160.1744095161.952.124409516FF2.088220.088145447.646402304646.8645555233460.064044259717693161122124DRYL
2024-05-23 20:00:02FORECAST2024238-4833.74626.34830.047105.147252843270.1255906190.1755906191.952.125590619FF1.746219.746145447.8204225446447.0870871976820.06015746194129161122124DRYL
2024-05-23 16:00:03FORECAST2024238-4833.27826.67229.975105.044819243680.1464567720.1864567721.952.136456772FF1.278219.278145447.7813695584247.037113025950.055139925589807161122124DRYL
2024-05-23 12:00:02FORECAST2024238-4834.73627.1430.938104.759678169140.1622048120.2322048121.952.182204812FF2.736220.736145447.6726055080646.8980380781640.071938949687126161122124DRYL
2024-05-23 08:00:02FORECAST2024238-4834.7927.21231.001104.682849533420.1594489050.2194489051.952.169448905FF2.79220.79145447.6432865623846.8605748118580.072629012285594161122124DRYL
2024-05-23 04:00:04FORECAST2024238-4836.0529.40832.729103.610966532550.1606300080.1906300081.952.140630008FF4.05224.05145447.2336428239946.3383099988660.090200580322259161122124DRYL
2024-05-23 00:00:03FORECAST2024238-4835.628.50832.054102.694439555020.1236221140.1636221141.751.913622114FF3.6223.6145446.8824861964145.8923464668940.08359535132933161122124DRYL
2024-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2024238-4836.48228.59832.54100.27997817260.1236221140.1636221141.681.843622114FF4.482227.482145445.9534905413444.720206297480.096897740822698161122124DRYL
2024-05-22 16:00:02FORECAST2024238-4836.80628.90432.855100.109389234010.1228347120.1728347121.681.852834712FF4.806228.806145445.8876384754744.6375391547730.10215437328291161122124DRYL
2024-05-22 12:00:02FORECAST2024238-4835.92429.26432.594101.128379695090.1177165990.1477165991.681.827716599FF3.924226.924145446.2805735835245.1316312958990.088313346240065161122124DRYL
2024-05-22 08:00:02FORECAST2024238-4835.79827.98631.892101.463581569130.1503937820.2303937821.681.910393782FF3.798224.798145446.409609358745.2943178124110.086455599264477161122124DRYL
2024-05-22 04:00:03FORECAST2024238-4836.5927.6832.135101.958675726060.1842520680.3042520681.782.084252068FF4.59225.59145446.5999947234745.5347440412720.098627493981731161122124DRYL
2024-05-22 00:00:03FORECAST2024238-4836.0525.75430.902110.501100967870.2625985670.3825985671.782.162598567FF4.05225.05145449.847506667949.7086447544560.090200580322259161122124DRYL
2024-05-21 20:00:03FORECAST2024238-4834.62824.83629.732106.580516968940.2814962150.3814962151.92.281496215FF2.628223.628145448.365792567947.7870579630780.070573869597452161122124DRYL
2024-05-21 16:00:02FORECAST2024238-4834.84423.91829.381106.757391184760.2185040550.3285040551.882.208504055FF2.844223.844145448.4329572935647.8735326419270.073324115644064161122124DRYL
2024-05-21 12:00:02FORECAST2024238-4834.68222.8228.751109.386005510290.330708840.620708841.772.39070884FF2.682223.682145449.4275768926549.1610874024550.07125390858288161123126DRYL
2024-05-21 08:00:03FORECAST2024238-4833.33223.46828.4110.721363992390.3496064880.5596064881.842.399606488FF1.332218.332145449.9303141461949.8168980837910.055701484612371161123126DRYL
2024-05-21 04:00:04FORECAST2024238-4834.4323.77429.102110.277365403070.3574805080.6174805081.712.327480508FF2.43217.43145449.763346251649.5987168794960.068122873245498161123126DRYL
2024-05-21 00:00:03FORECAST2024238-4834.21423.79229.003109.577838984650.4114175450.7014175451.642.341417545FF2.214218.214145449.4999035015549.255228049510.065524314928649161123126DRYL
2024-05-20 20:00:02FORECAST2024238-4834.57424.00829.291106.943641870990.3633860230.6633860231.532.193386023FF2.574218.574145448.5036499524747.9646137183490.069898813248025161123126DRYL
2024-05-20 16:00:03FORECAST2024238-4833.85423.37828.616110.397750960490.3633860230.6733860231.582.253386023FF1.854215.854145449.8086364514849.6578618268490.061364466112777161123126DRYL
2024-05-20 12:00:03FORECAST2024238-4835.13223.95429.543108.419092303690.1586615030.7386615031.42.138661503FF3.132220.132145449.0624864878748.6869471726550.077117251974372161123126DRYL
2024-05-20 11:39:18FORECAST2024238-4835.13223.95429.543108.419092303690.1586615030.7386615031.42.138661503FF3.132220.132145449.0624864878748.6869471726550.077117251974372161123126DRYL
2024-05-20 08:00:03FORECAST2024238-4834.1623.57628.8683.95016652807910.0952756420.5552756421.221.775275642FF2.16218.16145403.832454910231.59520544633840.0648868006550111611234224DRYL
2024-05-20 04:00:04FORECAST2024238-4834.1623.39628.778NAN0.0929134360.5629134361.241.802913436FF2.16219.16145NANNAN0.0648868006550111611235230DRYL
2024-05-20 00:00:03FORECAST2024238-4834.23223.6328.931100.856450717130.1610237090.3710237091.311.681023709FF2.232258.232145446.1758139311744.9997089889260.065737892004232161122124DRYL
2024-05-19 20:00:02FORECAST2024238-4834.3423.8129.07599.3623126183620.1106299810.2706299811.241.510629981FF2.34259.34145445.5989098233544.2757381802690.067030666270034161122124DRYL
2024-05-19 16:00:03FORECAST2024238-4833.40425.2529.327100.200140200710.1303150310.3003150311.341.640315031FF1.404256.404145445.9226744199444.6815144955520.056457215726632161122124DRYL
2024-05-19 12:00:03FORECAST2024238-4834.5225.35829.939102.03856128030.0870079210.3370079211.742.077007921FF2.52254.52145446.6306917883445.5735532137090.069228719946578161122124DRYL
2024-05-19 08:00:04FORECAST2024238-4832.82825.30429.066105.318670854160.2185040550.5485040551.632.178504055FF0.828252.828145447.8857532313847.1707322248430.050631930168951161123126DRYL
2024-05-19 04:00:04FORECAST2024238-4832.66625.84429.255103.004317150940.2275591780.5375591781.652.187559178FF0.666252.666145447.0013036683746.0430640499390.049082575558752161123126DRYL
2024-05-19 00:00:02FORECAST2024238-4832.9925.9729.48106.965561846930.0968504460.2868504461.691.976850446FF0.99250.99145448.5119676224947.9753346118130.052219860601569161122124DRYL
2024-05-18 20:00:03FORECAST2024238-4833.60225.77229.687104.144429327440.0830709110.4630709111.652.113070911FF1.602251.602145447.4376568095946.5981394280410.058577034053908161122124DRYL
2024-05-18 16:00:03FORECAST2024238-4833.74625.32229.534106.083477144690.2326772910.6026772911.622.222677291FF1.746251.746145448.1768892308447.54416278550.06015746194129161123126DRYL
2024-05-18 12:00:03FORECAST2024238-4834.7926.56430.677104.504353132610.2429135170.3729135171.852.222913517FF2.79258.79145447.5751475994346.7735512781120.072629012285594161122124DRYL
2024-05-18 08:00:04FORECAST2024238-4835.67226.67231.172104.004671937040.2614174640.4214174641.872.291417464FF3.672261.672145447.3842356382546.5300506573610.084627129155871161122124DRYL
2024-05-18 04:00:05FORECAST2024238-4838.4827.82433.152101.707048007120.2051182210.4151182211.541.955118221FF6.48265.48145446.5032627753845.412528782430.132616185371161122124DRYL
2024-05-18 00:00:03FORECAST2024238-4842.6230.50636.56391.6669821446510.4318899970.7718899971.091.861889997FF10.62285.62145442.5927275638440.5711396549470.23256598321777161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 20:00:02FORECAST2024238-4841.79231.40636.59992.7409225650980.3771655580.7371655580.971.707165558FF9.792277.792145443.0157987967641.0856938913260.20979395854942161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 16:00:04FORECAST2024238-4841.57629.0335.30392.7138488574510.3771655580.7371655580.981.717165558FF9.576277.576145443.00514747541.072712286070.20407598516781161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 12:00:04FORECAST2024238-4842.72827.98635.35792.4850013200410.2779529060.6279529060.91.527952906FF10.728279.728145442.9150851460340.9630022343960.23563416637324161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 08:00:04FORECAST2024238-4841.16227.80634.48493.0010592722920.2685040820.6285040821.011.638504082FF9.162274.162145443.1181043018941.2104530828060.19337898116775161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 04:00:04FORECAST2024238-4840.98227.21234.09794.2297799366770.1582678020.4582678021.111.568267802FF8.982279.982145443.600417904841.8003697589880.18883660797364161122124DRYL
2024-05-17 00:00:04FORECAST2024238-4844.38427.30235.84394.9998216246030.0303149770.1603149771.281.440314977FF12.384283.384145443.901918416442.1706030683780.28535351999787162122125DRYL
2024-05-16 20:00:04FORECAST2024238-4845.9527.57236.76197.1255913452760.0303149770.1703149771.221.390314977FF13.95281.95145444.7311833378843.1947791713760.33652877654558162122125DRYL
2024-05-16 16:00:04FORECAST2024238-4860.24234.2547.24695.1166836451450.0082677210.0782677211.161.238267721FF28.242304.242145443.9476228113742.2268255939640.81644718253616164121123.5DRYL
2024-05-16 12:00:04FORECAST2024238-4845.21235.70840.4694.744220824980.0822835090.2022835091.031.232283509FF13.212281.212145443.8019063914242.0476658216950.31195600170218162122125DRYL
2024-05-16 08:00:04FORECAST2024238-4855.34634.39444.8794.6188743062060.0082677210.1882677211.071.258267721FF23.346296.346145443.752836805141.9873938886840.67304314751966163122126DRYL
2024-05-16 04:00:06FORECAST2024238-4855.34632.2743.80898.7434778443680.0192913490.7092913491.281.989291349FF23.346285.346145445.3593285857343.9763289949870.67304314751966163123129DRYL
2024-05-16 00:00:04FORECAST2024238-4840.92832.43236.6892.8259783967170.0578740470.63787404711.637874047FF8.928275.928145443.0492566460141.1264807261040.18748679316022161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 20:00:04FORECAST2024238-4842.67431.89237.28396.8797434940050.059055150.639055150.91.53905515FF10.674277.674145444.6355066580543.0761738333590.23409729573541161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 16:00:04FORECAST2024238-4842.7129.42636.06895.0083603182260.1043307650.3043307650.540.844330765FF10.71273.71145443.9052583339842.1747107309490.23512125971411161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 12:00:04FORECAST2024238-4835.9632.5434.2595.4714793491210.3531497971.0231497970.951.973149797FF3.96275.96145444.0862992864742.3975759515560.088849538011802161124128DRYL
2024-05-15 08:00:03FORECAST2024238-4837.6730.63234.15193.31361253393200.241.21.44FF5.67284.67145443.2409346081641.3604128312040.11717562923092161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 04:00:05FORECAST2024238-4834.48431.13632.8193.08216198495300.121.061.18FF2.484279.484145443.1499862262241.2493588015390.068784738608032161122124DRYL