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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 23, 2024

[ Wednesday, May 22, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, May 24, 2024 ]

DAY 236 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/24/2024 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.88°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.17°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.02°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.159
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 209

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.75 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.37 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.12 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 106 in
SWE DAY: 143
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.82 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 47.15 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -50

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-24 04:00:09OBSERVATION2024236-5038.8799631.1700235.02499105.5280041666701.751.373.12TF6.87996208.87996143446.82165226446 47.1521971819210.1589215972541816 11251210DRYL
2024-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2024236-4941.77427.7734.772104.5315854635401.751.373.12TF9.774211.774144447.0132636535146.7270051729330.227684122504231611251210DRYL
2024-05-23 12:00:01FORECAST2024236-4941.64827.82434.736104.5389235900901.751.373.12TF9.648211.648144447.0160759812546.7305794105470.224380520550971611251210DRYL
2024-05-23 08:00:01FORECAST2024236-4941.88228.11234.997104.518541213140.0011811031.7511811031.373.121181103TF9.882211.882144447.0082643315946.7206516981570.230537403832531611251210DRYL
2024-05-23 04:00:03FORECAST2024236-4942.2628.14835.204104.037098816670.0011811031.7511811031.373.121181103TF10.26212.26144446.8236314399446.4862342977390.240679343282941611251210DRYL
2024-05-23 00:00:03FORECAST2024236-5042.04427.80634.925102.763491224310.0043307111.5543307111.372.924330711FF10.044212.044143445.7570675136745.8075524956160.234854488701431611251210DRYL
2024-05-22 20:00:01FORECAST2024236-5042.36827.1434.754100.472914866880.0043307111.4843307111.372.854330711FF10.368214.368143444.8693101930244.6973163299130.24362094817197161124128DRYL
2024-05-22 16:00:01FORECAST2024236-5043.12428.1335.627100.413477183340.0011811031.4811811031.372.851181103FF11.124215.124143444.8462051430944.668554270230.264743939271611621241210DRYL
2024-05-22 12:00:02FORECAST2024236-5042.8928.27435.582101.325519834890.0023622061.4823622061.372.852362206FF10.89214.89143445.2003574079945.1101576450420.258107921542821621241210DRYL
2024-05-22 08:00:01FORECAST2024236-5043.0728.5835.825101.36502293530.003937011.483937011.372.85393701FF11.07214.07143445.21567819745.1292974315930.263204895676981621241210DRYL
2024-05-22 04:00:03FORECAST2024236-5042.81828.63435.726101.812962203560.0027559071.5827559071.372.952755907TF10.818213.818143445.3892983993145.3464038038010.256083537741861621251212.5DRYL
2024-05-22 00:00:03FORECAST2024236-5042.18829.01235.6109.722334279080.0114173291.5914173291.372.961417329TF10.188214.188143448.4226370540249.2019784811480.238729048064651611251210DRYL
2024-05-21 20:00:03FORECAST2024236-5042.04428.92235.483105.879982073390.0188976481.7188976481.373.088897648TF10.044215.044143446.9566595566947.3237631014440.234854488701431611251210DRYL
2024-05-21 16:00:02FORECAST2024236-5041.86429.335.582106.087270460350.0216535551.7016535551.373.071653555TF9.864214.864143447.0361121944247.4248409399130.230060476069651611251210DRYL
2024-05-21 12:00:02FORECAST2024236-5041.34228.68835.015108.009005313640.0137795351.5837795351.372.953779535TF9.342215.342143447.7707156541548.3632696063810.216471597915671611251210DRYL
2024-05-21 08:00:03FORECAST2024236-5041.30628.97635.141109.074567852520.0114173291.6514173291.373.021417329TF9.306213.306143448.1764955181148.8846575702940.215551841401711611251210DRYL
2024-05-21 04:00:04FORECAST2024236-5040.78427.89634.34108.709909948340.031496081.541496081.372.91149608FF8.784210.784143448.0377527113348.7061437507050.202471665518031611251210DRYL
2024-05-21 00:00:03FORECAST2024236-5040.89227.60834.25107.441670126130.0370078941.4770078941.372.847007894FF8.892211.892143447.5542186929248.0859727283630.20513834390299161124128DRYL
2024-05-20 20:00:01FORECAST2024236-5040.71228.36434.538105.321173460930.0342519871.3642519871.372.734251987FF8.712210.712143446.7422624036947.0514193109470.20070542695069161124128DRYL
2024-05-20 16:00:02FORECAST2024236-5041.39628.434.898107.894676986380.0401575021.4201575021.372.790157502FF9.396211.396143447.7271126873648.3073722014450.21785547409431161124128DRYL
2024-05-20 12:00:03FORECAST2024236-5041.7228.52635.123106.520565705190.0440945121.2440945121.372.614094512FF9.72212.72143447.2020571178947.6362161087240.22626495734471161124128DRYL
2024-05-20 11:39:17FORECAST2024236-5041.7228.52635.123106.520565705190.0440945121.2440945121.372.614094512FF9.72212.72143447.2020571178947.6362161087240.22626495734471161124128DRYL
2024-05-20 08:00:03FORECAST2024236-5041.59428.07634.8352.61758602130960.0318897811.0518897811.372.421889781FF9.594211.594143401.688919019821.05145529934120.222973047964531611244232DRYL
2024-05-20 04:00:04FORECAST2024236-5041.70228.34635.024NAN0.0374015951.0774015951.372.447401595FF9.702213.702143NANNAN0.225793013201731611245240DRYM
2024-05-20 00:00:03FORECAST2024236-5042.90828.38235.64599.9192520794940.0114173291.0814173291.412.491417329FF10.908251.908143444.6539512068544.429490238780.258615309174081621241210DRYL
2024-05-19 20:00:02FORECAST2024236-5044.34828.1336.23999.0666063508730.0019685051.0119685051.42.411968505FF12.348253.348143444.3217035030644.0174432940860.300808436871331621241210DRYL
2024-05-19 16:00:03FORECAST2024236-5042.47627.98635.23199.6600333147440.0019685051.1119685051.42.511968505FF10.476250.476143444.5530183838944.3041686223080.24658182919761161124128DRYL
2024-05-19 12:00:02FORECAST2024236-5040.127.39233.746101.700335198560.0287401731.5387401731.42.938740173FF8.1246.1143445.3456630263445.2918032090020.186068249848981611251210DRYL
2024-05-19 08:00:03FORECAST2024236-5040.06427.51833.791103.826988891470.0220472561.4120472561.412.822047256FF8.064247.064143446.1674942051446.3242274645720.18522831283179161124128DRYL
2024-05-19 04:00:04FORECAST2024236-5039.48827.06833.278101.637746177760.0220472561.4420472561.42.842047256FF7.488247.488143445.3214086029745.2614642951140.17211034692616161124128DRYL
2024-05-19 00:00:02FORECAST2024236-5038.3926.56432.477106.281194448280.015748041.295748041.582.87574804FF6.39246.39143447.1104044579247.5194278360390.14878792918039161124128DRYL
2024-05-18 20:00:03FORECAST2024236-5038.71425.71832.216102.840869612740.0161417411.2261417411.612.836141741FF6.714245.714143445.7869669156645.845119339630.15543974174152161124128DRYL
2024-05-18 16:00:03FORECAST2024236-5038.49825.80832.153103.750444853660.0181102461.2081102461.62.808110246FF6.498246.498143446.1379912218346.2870150553840.15098379352932161124128DRYL
2024-05-18 12:00:03FORECAST2024236-5041.1827.4134.295103.399539523580.0562992431.4762992431.63.076299243TF9.18252.18143446.0026655145446.1164702404930.2123505615416161124128DRYL
2024-05-18 08:00:03FORECAST2024236-5042.22427.98635.105103.634914468250.0570866451.4770866451.623.097086645TF10.224253.224143446.0934505536346.2308565929740.23970311497776161124128DRYL
2024-05-18 04:00:05FORECAST2024236-5042.29628.34635.321101.828088642530.0507874291.1807874291.582.760787429FF10.296254.296143445.3951579240545.3537376220420.24165772816883161124128DRYL
2024-05-18 00:00:03FORECAST2024236-5045.10430.18237.64392.6851536930280.0011811030.6111811031.652.261181103FF13.104266.104143441.8120857133240.9494210677760.32413387250291162123127.5DRYL
2024-05-17 20:00:02FORECAST2024236-5042.65629.6636.15893.4986758654890.0921260340.6121260341.622.232126034FF10.656260.656143442.1342843986241.3389701460070.25155909255403162123127.5DRYL
2024-05-17 16:00:03FORECAST2024236-5042.31429.4835.89793.6266330028880.0921260340.6121260341.632.242126034FF10.314261.314143442.1849017636641.4002835168440.24214772781148161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 12:00:04FORECAST2024236-5041.66629.10235.38493.390929033180.0763779940.5663779941.582.146377994FF9.666259.666143442.0916490781441.2873498252180.22485079430644161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 08:00:03FORECAST2024236-504128.81434.90793.7871079318090.0696850770.6396850771.612.249685077FF9256143442.2483592880141.477194605210.20782574071632161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 04:00:04FORECAST2024236-5040.0128.32834.16994.2507180912060.1145669910.7845669911.612.394566991FF8.01262.01143442.4315420837641.6994905475940.18397282026772161123126DRYL
2024-05-17 00:00:04FORECAST2024236-5039.57825.35832.46896.213118683720.1334646390.9734646391.612.583464639FF7.578260.578143443.2045461055942.6420915956210.17412009153079161123126DRYL
2024-05-16 20:00:04FORECAST2024236-5039.34424.92632.13598.5295625452760.1381890510.8681890511.662.528189051FF7.344256.344143444.1120657401143.7581675584520.16892561055235161123126DRYL
2024-05-16 16:00:03FORECAST2024236-5040.8225.77233.29697.4995511719980.0728346850.7828346851.622.402834685FF8.82260.82143443.70919453243.2614473177590.20335825160191161123126DRYL
2024-05-16 12:00:04FORECAST2024236-5039.68627.98633.83696.8256902840860.1161417950.6361417951.682.316141795FF7.686252.686143443.4450545357742.936873508490.17655134288701161123126DRYL
2024-05-16 08:00:03FORECAST2024236-5039.75826.58233.1796.8683850383540.1767717490.7767717491.642.416771749FF7.758259.758143443.4618034440842.9574287258250.178184017476161123126DRYL
2024-05-16 04:00:05FORECAST2024236-5037.63426.18631.91100.573758889230.6196853741.3896853741.683.069685374TF5.634253.634143444.9085030382744.7461205123390.13401453187758161124128DRYL
2024-05-16 00:00:04FORECAST2024236-5037.79628.72433.2692.5831066266910.4948821571.0948821571.572.664882157FF5.796260.796143441.7716225526240.9005892354350.13709244550652161124128DRYL
2024-05-15 20:00:04FORECAST2024236-5037.74230.07433.90896.7348725550790.4885829410.9885829411.572.558582941FF5.742259.742143443.4094212176942.8931538512140.13606116826475161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 16:00:03FORECAST2024236-5040.47831.65836.06894.5058666191860.1625985130.2725985131.61.872598513FF8.478256.478143442.532265014541.8218952121470.19502922101112161122124DRYL
2024-05-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024236-5041.75631.78436.7793.3973434627990.1877953770.7077953771.62.307795377FF9.756264.756143442.0941875885841.2904226811180.22721051250435161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 08:00:03FORECAST2024236-504131.62236.31194.0800501339320.2059056230.9859056231.592.575905623FF9263143442.3641324241941.6176397559210.20782574071632161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 04:00:05FORECAST2024236-5042.15231.1936.67193.7957820826420.0704724790.7304724791.572.300472479FF10.152261.152143442.2517886205941.4813523911150.23775714730187161123126DRYL
2024-05-15 00:00:04FORECAST2024236-5046.09431.76638.9394.0881067784140.0110236280.2610236281.752.011023628FF14.094277.094143442.3673152584841.6215031933210.35574130381533162122125DRYL
2024-05-14 20:00:03FORECAST2024236-5047.44431.38839.41697.065580409080.0165354420.0765354421.891.966535442FF15.444274.444143443.5391384982843.0523839124790.40045096667156162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-14 16:00:04FORECAST2024236-5048.0230.39839.20996.0586782633550.0263779670.1063779671.81.906377967FF16.02281.02143443.1438504750142.5678125571630.41997094448732162122125DRYL
2024-05-14 12:00:04FORECAST2024236-5051.22433.7142.46794.0212418813380.0759842930.1859842931.631.815984293FF19.224276.224143442.3408978357541.5894405494230.53082221366487163122126DRYL
2024-05-14 08:00:04FORECAST2024236-5048.3834.03441.20793.69848530005100.081.571.65FF16.38275.38143442.2133179288141.434718069440.43227495440949162121122.5DRYL
2024-05-14 04:00:05FORECAST2024236-5051.06234.37642.71993.7043302166600.151.491.64FF19.062274.062143442.2156292498741.4375193501980.52520223509105163122126DRYL
2024-05-14 00:00:05FORECAST2024236-5036.69831.24433.97186.1431605264950.003937010.403937011.321.72393701FF4.698269.698143439.1967566556737.8337967113050.11715967110908161122124DRYL
2024-05-13 20:00:04FORECAST2024236-5034.5230.18232.35189.2998316582830.0279527710.4779527711.251.727952771FF2.52271.52143440.4641427748739.3333738013060.083870327056797161122124DRYL
2024-05-13 16:00:04FORECAST2024236-5034.5234.12434.32287.3047829785350.0397638010.4797638011.31.779763801FF2.52273.52143439.6643237898638.3847983718780.083870327056797161122124DRYL
2024-05-13 12:00:04FORECAST2024236-5037.00435.2436.12285.8077165991560.1027559610.3027559611.31.602755961FF5.004290.004143439.0614794942737.6748630020510.12249674202693161122124DRYL
2024-05-13 08:00:04FORECAST2024236-5039.2933.87236.58184.62905872552900.081.291.37FF7.29297.29143438.5852376326937.1170558317670.16774113323859161121122DRYL
2024-05-13 04:00:06FORECAST2024236-5036.51834.89835.70882.7425893236900.041.251.29FF4.518312.518143437.8200280371336.2263627775630.11409802877655161121122DRYL