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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 13, 2024

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DAY 226 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/09/2024 04:00:03 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.27°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.99°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.63°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.382
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 183

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 128 in
SWE DAY: 133
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.58 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 57.43 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -60

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-09 16:00:03FORECAST2024226-6046.27432.9939.632127.74124045306005.245.24TF14.274183.274133449.5792822118157.4298151917350.38202545631395162111122WETL
2024-05-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024226-6046.27432.9939.632125.92792525306005.245.24TF14.274183.274133448.8945679681756.5283616016030.38202545631395162111122WETL
2024-05-09 08:00:03FORECAST2024226-6046.50832.79239.65125.95774045306005.245.24TF14.508182.508133448.9058518128756.5431667705070.39021400636705162111122WETL
2024-05-09 04:00:04FORECAST2024226-6046.83232.43239.632126.29683890718005.245.24TF14.832183.832133449.0341267234256.7115907666120.40163213398496162111122WETL
2024-05-09 00:00:03FORECAST2024226-6048.2933.22440.757128.949692169980.0007874020.0007874025.25.200787402TF16.29188.29133450.033849816958.0317263999590.45392105222449162111122WETL
2024-05-08 20:00:02FORECAST2024226-6048.05633.22440.64130.69605875999005.25.2TF16.056187.056133450.6882976547758.9031842327270.44545023273842162111122WETL
2024-05-08 16:00:02FORECAST2024226-6047.7534.741.225130.54263840.0342519870.0342519875.25.234251987TF15.75186.75133450.6309198839758.8265492262730.43441105934909162111122WETL
2024-05-08 12:00:03FORECAST2024226-6045.75234.4340.091130.221705183580.0500000270.0500000275.25.250000027TF13.752182.752133450.5108215498458.6662873858760.36395256074143162111122WETL
2024-05-08 08:00:03FORECAST2024226-6045.8633.78239.821130.553671684980.0070866180.0070866185.25.207086618TF13.86178.86133450.6350469749458.8320599725130.36766855434746162111122WETL
2024-05-08 04:00:05FORECAST2024226-6048.12835.18641.657130.230136847750.0287401730.0287401735.25.228740173TF16.128180.128133450.5139780656258.6704970153090.44805417071122162111122WETL
2024-05-08 00:00:03FORECAST2024226-6046.02233.92639.974123.414069931780.0303149770.0303149774.834.860314977TF14.022174.022133447.9400955966655.2821102832130.37326574010426162111122WETL
2024-05-07 20:00:02FORECAST2024226-6045.78833.81839.803122.074801160670.0381889970.0381889974.854.888188997TF13.788167.788133447.4291019480854.619818653810.3651898249617162111122WETL
2024-05-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024226-6042.8932.41437.652123.583545332860.0283464720.0283464724.854.878346472TF10.89159.89133448.0046345726655.3660010660410.27102499469282162111122WETL
2024-05-07 12:00:03FORECAST2024226-6048.88432.19840.541124.208341666830.0543307380.0843307384.854.934330738TF16.884165.884133448.2423272656655.6754361345470.47550940613212162111122WETL
2024-05-07 08:00:03FORECAST2024226-6049.08232.73840.91123.606945231060.0460630170.0460630174.854.896063017TF17.082168.082133448.0135434500955.377585528010.4827247013171162111122WETL
2024-05-07 04:00:05FORECAST2024226-6047.24632.79240.019123.53629954348004.844.84TF15.246167.246133447.9866454041455.3426124181260.41634377957484162111122WETL
2024-05-07 00:00:03FORECAST2024226-6046.02231.94638.984119.146394837120.011811030.021811034.94.92181103TF14.022166.022133446.3057037034453.1757155915070.37326574010426162111122WETL
2024-05-06 20:00:03FORECAST2024226-6045.1432.82838.984114.74920050364004.924.92TF13.14159.14133444.603075649151.0178474721960.34314517206116162111122WETL
2024-05-06 16:00:02FORECAST2024226-6045.60833.4439.524114.73486759938004.924.92TF13.608163.608133444.5974946845651.0108346876470.35901778165256162111122WETL
2024-05-06 12:00:03FORECAST2024226-6048.236.19442.197116.18561989344004.934.93TF16.2167.2133445.1613612092151.7213487047010.45066034881685162111122WETL
2024-05-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024226-6056.94840.24448.596115.29844232335005.025.02TF24.948178.948133444.8167871302351.2866826753930.75054782008459164111123WETL
2024-05-06 04:00:05FORECAST2024226-6056.4840.47848.479115.4582287104005.035.03TF24.48178.48133444.8789044822851.3649303021450.73676367119143164111123WETL
2024-05-06 00:00:03FORECAST2024226-6057.00242.38649.694112.05423872925004.914.91TF25.002172.002133443.5501273861349.7016718625140.75211328154618164111123WETL
2024-05-05 20:00:03FORECAST2024226-6057.90242.6250.261107.93540189376005.075.07TF25.902175.902133441.926866509547.6995539443520.7774165893823164111123WETL
2024-05-05 16:00:03FORECAST2024226-6055.54442.56649.055107.58510729898004.984.98TF23.544172.544133441.7880279271647.529812387950.70807650583224164111123WETL
2024-05-05 12:00:02FORECAST2024226-6056.3944.9650.675109.994345272004.894.89TF24.39173.39133442.7404325155848.6989439999920.73406902292423164111123WETL
2024-05-05 08:00:03FORECAST2024226-6054.55439.77647.165109.85649714852004.824.82TF22.554171.554133442.686096327448.6319438788830.67624109210825163111122.5WETL
2024-05-05 04:00:05FORECAST2024226-6054.55439.77647.165110.83746340742004.864.86TF22.554167.554133443.0723543070249.1090158573440.67624109210825163111122.5WETL
2024-05-05 00:00:03FORECAST2024226-6056.73241.88249.307119.28740328934004.84.8TF24.732171.732133446.3599892171753.2451240459740.74423387776158164111123WETL
2024-05-04 20:00:03FORECAST2024226-6056.8443.17850.009119.1121303056300.014.914.92TF24.84168.84133446.2925095881553.1588515564880.74740122601256164111123WETL
2024-05-04 16:00:03FORECAST2024226-6059.88242.6251.251119.6779192497100.015.025.03TF27.882171.882133446.5102288265553.4374151096730.82759078140977164111123WETL
2024-05-04 12:00:04FORECAST2024226-6058.89235.74447.318120.39418769399004.894.89TF26.892169.892133446.7854051518353.7903659267870.80347104192567164111123WETL
2024-05-04 08:00:04FORECAST2024226-6052.95232.37842.665121.873293879730.1188977020.1188977025.245.358897702TF20.952154.952133447.3520669423354.5202699221670.62197596616449163112125WETL
2024-05-04 04:00:05FORECAST2024226-6046.07632.4539.263123.19408115070.1188977020.1188977025.185.298897702TF14.076148.076133447.8562788603355.1732427617670.37513749234997162112124WETL
2024-05-04 00:00:04FORECAST2024226-6052.21443.5247.867127.49012532641005.35.3TF20.214156.214133449.484648272157.3048541405080.59606276553871163111122.5WETL
2024-05-03 20:00:04FORECAST2024226-6049.15441.41445.284128.7283694832400.035.225.25TF17.154147.154133449.950702068557.9214202251150.48534997324858162111122WETL
2024-05-03 16:00:03FORECAST2024226-6046.79640.20843.502128.6929393771900.065.335.39TF14.796145.796133449.9373871467357.9037648876060.4003591035058162111122WETL
2024-05-03 12:00:03FORECAST2024226-6048.43444.43846.436128.96535666799005.145.14TF16.434144.434133450.0397329723658.0395346775490.45914455293041162111122WETL
2024-05-03 08:00:05FORECAST2024226-6028.72426.58227.653129.532813403460.0346456880.0346456885.155.184645688TF-3.276119.724133450.2526963923958.3224985062020.028194953782298161111121.5WETL
2024-05-03 04:00:05FORECAST2024226-6028.88627.64428.265130.08559369254005.075.07TF-3.114116.886133450.4598568839758.5983379174070.029170993387071161111121.5WETL