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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 12, 2024

[ Saturday, May 11, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, May 13, 2024 ]

DAY 225 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/10/2024 08:00:02 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.60°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.03°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.757
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 24
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 173

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.93 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.93 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 115 in
SWE DAY: 132
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.10 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.06 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -61

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-10 08:00:02FORECAST2024225-6156.46239.59648.029114.9681392005.935.93TF24.462173.462132444.1049889798251.0579241924470.757363205581164111123WETL
2024-05-10 04:00:04FORECAST2024225-6156.24639.00247.624115.00189496667005.935.93TF24.246173.246132444.1181747445551.074431684760.75122071710236164111123WETL
2024-05-10 00:00:03FORECAST2024225-6155.99439.3847.687125.1140864005.935.93TF23.994170.994132448.0177609811656.0533328561320.74395130585652164111123WETL
2024-05-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024225-6155.97639.41647.696128.7139720.0019685050.0019685055.935.931968505TF23.976171.976132449.3819940422357.8417413984560.7434278610394164111123WETL
2024-05-09 16:00:03FORECAST2024225-6155.50838.1246.814128.6853376005.935.93TF23.508171.508132449.3711917304757.827483515550.72962551419566164111123WETL
2024-05-09 12:00:02FORECAST2024225-6155.50838.1246.814126.8720224005.935.93TF23.508171.508132448.6855168488556.9256389442020.72962551419566164111123WETL
2024-05-09 08:00:03FORECAST2024225-6155.07638.10246.589126.905872005.935.93TF23.076171.076132448.6983454577956.9424547952790.71656411501648164111123WETL
2024-05-09 04:00:04FORECAST2024225-6154.64437.59846.121127.21584155005.935.93TF22.644171.644132448.8157690696857.0964757631090.70320797426488164111123WETL
2024-05-09 00:00:03FORECAST2024225-6154.87838.17446.526129.98575488143005.895.89TF22.878174.878132449.860981931858.4755193281070.71047831605818164111123WETL
2024-05-08 20:00:02FORECAST2024225-6155.20238.13846.67131.7369192005.895.89TF23.202174.202132450.5179909159659.3498521674420.72040473152372164111123WETL
2024-05-08 16:00:02FORECAST2024225-6155.36438.6647.012131.613132005.895.89TF23.364174.364132450.4716438542959.2879839248520.7253052828501164111123WETL
2024-05-08 12:00:03FORECAST2024225-6155.52638.35446.94131.20619718358005.895.89TF23.526171.526132450.3191809971159.0846672574560.73016314850772164111123WETL
2024-05-08 08:00:03FORECAST2024225-6153.61837.1345.374131.51533488498005.895.89TF21.618167.618132450.4350174129259.2391121589830.67039040731724163111122.5WETL
2024-05-08 04:00:04FORECAST2024225-6155.70639.12847.417131.40198244775005.895.89TF23.706166.706132450.392553891759.1824744610750.73550991659055164111123WETL
2024-05-08 00:00:03FORECAST2024225-6151.13438.35444.744124.42216524396005.525.52TF19.134163.134132447.7541143743255.7105364073440.58576727860367163111122.5WETL
2024-05-07 20:00:02FORECAST2024225-6150.32438.71444.519123.10144694663005.545.54TF18.324157.324132447.2495855322955.0570711253050.55706132795707163111122.5WETL
2024-05-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024225-6146.14835.45640.802124.07375589047005.545.54TF14.148152.148132447.6211824967355.5380413285010.40765076988168162111122WETL
2024-05-07 12:00:03FORECAST2024225-6147.26435.34841.306124.958224514360.0283464720.0283464725.545.568346472TF15.264152.264132447.9584124760955.9760878792820.44717125515602162111122WETL
2024-05-07 08:00:03FORECAST2024225-6148.34436.1442.242124.48536230171005.545.54TF16.344154.344132447.7782139366855.741833192720.48592754924508162111122WETL
2024-05-07 04:00:05FORECAST2024225-6148.1135.58241.846124.52187394348005.535.53TF16.11155.11132447.7921355210355.7599158522330.47750633762032162111122WETL
2024-05-07 00:00:02FORECAST2024225-6149.69435.99642.845119.992441059340.0110236280.0110236285.595.601023628TF17.694154.694132446.0552083306553.5232532948250.53451735435657163111122.5WETL
2024-05-06 20:00:03FORECAST2024225-6149.1936.15842.674115.657086086840.0015748040.0015748045.615.611574804TF17.19149.19132444.3738833875651.3949884856990.5163985090068163111122.5WETL
2024-05-06 16:00:02FORECAST2024225-6149.08237.97643.529115.71719479938005.615.61TF17.082153.082132444.3973213716251.4244114054820.51251020623789163111122.5WETL
2024-05-06 12:00:03FORECAST2024225-6152.08839.45245.77117.49817749344005.625.62TF20.088154.088132445.0901525711452.2972817473860.61898714381059163111122.5WETL
2024-05-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024225-6155.09443.14249.118117.43903592335005.715.71TF23.094157.094132445.0671958145752.2682623975730.717114317897164111123WETL
2024-05-06 04:00:05FORECAST2024225-6158.1943.30450.747117.6273583104005.725.72TF26.19157.19132445.1402842024752.3606757082750.80343119447893164111123WETL
2024-05-06 00:00:03FORECAST2024225-6157.50642.49450114.32993552925005.65.6TF25.506149.506132443.8554793491850.7459683382960.78586314462748164111123WETL
2024-05-05 20:00:03FORECAST2024225-6158.69443.03450.864110.27978189376005.765.76TF26.694152.694132442.2625839314748.7726212957320.81580052810373164111123WETL
2024-05-05 16:00:03FORECAST2024225-6157.4744.20450.837109.76004249898005.675.67TF25.47152.47132442.0569853751548.520193501750.78491392961584164111123WETL
2024-05-05 12:00:02FORECAST2024225-6159.64844.0651.854112.374050872005.585.58TF27.648151.648132443.0882902308549.7916260671880.83785501050714164111123WETL
2024-05-05 08:00:03FORECAST2024225-6158.78442.7150.747111.78995874852005.515.51TF26.784151.784132442.8584420495649.5071269681570.81795736228207164111123WETL
2024-05-05 04:00:05FORECAST2024225-6158.78443.5251.152112.77082660742005.555.55TF26.784147.784132443.2442324837349.9850184861620.81795736228207164111123WETL
2024-05-05 00:00:03FORECAST2024225-6159.93644.4252.178121.491169689340.003937010.003937015.495.49393701TF27.936149.936132446.6321478027254.2618620574150.84416109794186164111123WETL
2024-05-04 20:00:03FORECAST2024225-6160.24245.75252.997121.421775105630.007874020.007874025.65.60787402TF28.242147.242132446.6054826418954.2276304742840.85068222408736165111123.5WETL
2024-05-04 16:00:03FORECAST2024225-6159.46844.97852.223122.112040049710.007874020.007874025.715.71787402TF27.468147.468132446.870510826654.5682697150920.83383070281615164111123WETL
2024-05-04 12:00:04FORECAST2024225-6158.08244.92451.503122.43647969399005.585.58TF26.082146.082132446.9949194409554.728484377450.80071672201385164111123WETL
2024-05-04 08:00:04FORECAST2024225-6156.10241.95449.028123.49856727642005.935.93TF24.102137.102132447.4014678280555.2534402741330.7470802545183164111123WETL
2024-05-04 04:00:05FORECAST2024225-6156.01239.93847.975124.2165555507005.875.87TF24.012137.012132447.6756804133955.6087310247660.74447419386713164111123WETL
2024-05-04 00:00:04FORECAST2024225-6163.1444.58253.861128.15885172641005.995.99TF31.14139.14132449.1724351328557.5654235137820.90344063474725165111123.5WETL
2024-05-03 20:00:04FORECAST2024225-6160.20644.22252.214129.306174283240.0299212760.0299212765.915.939921276TF28.206133.206132449.6052259717658.1367317081590.84992460446782165111123.5WETL
2024-05-03 16:00:03FORECAST2024225-6162.34842.54852.448129.207768177190.0602362530.0602362536.026.080236253TF30.348134.348132449.5681548363758.0876979299450.89060807523636165111123.5WETL
2024-05-03 12:00:03FORECAST2024225-6161.0738.42649.748129.577896667990.0027559070.0027559075.835.832755907TF29.07131.07132449.7075399849258.2721571469830.86740528190931165111123.5WETL
2024-05-03 08:00:04FORECAST2024225-6149.7329.89439.812129.17741831163005.845.84TF17.73125.73132449.5567196926558.0725764345410.53580927006735163111122.5WETL
2024-05-03 04:00:05FORECAST2024225-6149.78429.91239.848130.08559369254005.765.76TF17.784122.784132449.8985184726358.5253158769050.53774643171252163111122.5WETL
2024-05-03 00:00:04FORECAST2024225-6141.82831.74836.788138.05055858161006.176.17TF9.828104.828132452.8626532259262.5179422385880.26640313135484162111122WETL
2024-05-02 20:00:04FORECAST2024225-6145.7741.52243.646136.88655948989005.985.98TF13.77113.77132452.4332074147161.9320251619770.39445443130079162111122WETL
2024-05-02 16:00:03FORECAST2024225-6145.78839.75842.773136.2467211655005.845.84TF13.788114.788132452.1966041230161.6103046339340.39508021956814162111122WETL
2024-05-02 12:00:03FORECAST2024225-6135.9631.53233.746139.32695206505006.456.45TF3.9692.96132453.3321086179463.1613809669620.12426359195122161111121.5WETL
2024-05-02 08:00:03FORECAST2024225-6137.02233.40435.213138.6377770557900.016.326.33TF5.02290.022132453.0788202435762.8138404696310.14504416288457161111121.5WETL
2024-05-02 04:00:08FORECAST2024225-6137.09435.52836.311139.5855379390200.016.516.52TF5.09488.094132453.4270308066363.2918560112380.14653286226392161111121.5WETL