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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 11, 2024

[ Friday, May 10, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, May 12, 2024 ]

DAY 224 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/10/2024 04:00:04 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.87°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.46°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.66°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.871
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 155

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.97 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.97 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 117 in
SWE DAY: 131
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.32 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.99 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -62

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-10 04:00:04FORECAST2024224-6260.87244.45652.664117.01988216667005.975.97TF28.872154.872131444.3219063141451.9944971209490.87050669703026165111123.5WETL
2024-05-10 00:00:03FORECAST2024224-6260.63845.19452.916127.1313848005.975.97TF28.638152.638131448.2160644636156.9823289648650.86570564468174165111123.5WETL
2024-05-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024224-6261.35845.553.429130.7307784005.975.97TF29.358154.358131449.5783072053458.7737220527080.88009581917413165111123.5WETL
2024-05-09 16:00:02FORECAST2024224-6261.37645.30253.339130.6758712005.975.97TF29.376154.376131449.5576201835458.7463336720830.88044112363297165111123.5WETL
2024-05-09 12:00:02FORECAST2024224-6261.37645.30253.339128.862556005.975.97TF29.376154.376131448.8728059383857.8428970921110.88044112363297165111123.5WETL
2024-05-09 08:00:02FORECAST2024224-6260.99845.26653.132128.8715104005.975.97TF28.998153.998131448.8761954005657.8473532838760.87304217710157165111123.5WETL
2024-05-09 04:00:04FORECAST2024224-6261.0745.17653.123129.11889755005.975.97TF29.07155.07131448.9698070851357.9704865240680.87447545452768165111123.5WETL
2024-05-09 00:00:02FORECAST2024224-6261.01645.1453.078131.87198448143005.935.93TF29.016158.016131450.0076193582959.3433977965430.87340155667106165111123.5WETL
2024-05-08 20:00:02FORECAST2024224-6261.0745.28453.177133.6728408005.935.93TF29.07157.07131450.6825601702660.2440181169750.87447545452768165111123.5WETL
2024-05-08 16:00:02FORECAST2024224-6261.3445.37453.357133.5887088005.935.93TF29.34157.34131450.651097136660.2018981857820.87974981442584165111123.5WETL
2024-05-08 12:00:03FORECAST2024224-6260.04445.03252.538133.13582118358005.935.93TF28.044154.044131450.4816141744659.9752396312220.85297617100945165111123.5WETL
2024-05-08 08:00:02FORECAST2024224-6260.18844.85252.52133.32953568498005.935.93TF28.188152.188131450.5541313134560.0721731289730.85613379372965165111123.5WETL
2024-05-08 04:00:04FORECAST2024224-6259.43244.9652.196133.37854324775005.935.93TF27.432149.432131450.5724716691760.0966998987730.83904245583211164111123WETL
2024-05-08 00:00:03FORECAST2024224-6258.65844.54651.602126.09860604396005.565.56TF26.658149.658131447.8228894018656.4698421081510.82022866054162164111123WETL
2024-05-07 20:00:02FORECAST2024224-6257.81244.67251.242124.78290614663005.585.58TF25.812144.812131447.3205110708555.8179533504160.79815413242295164111123WETL
2024-05-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024224-6256.6641.50449.082125.08688110779005.585.58TF24.66143.66131447.4367280812355.9684648087550.7656225308771164111123WETL
2024-05-07 12:00:03FORECAST2024224-6256.76840.92848.848126.12179487746005.585.58TF24.768142.768131447.8317286288956.481341417750.76879027596304164111123WETL
2024-05-07 08:00:03FORECAST2024224-6257.32642.2649.793125.79260630171005.585.58TF25.326144.326131447.7061982240656.3181295320340.78477152881771164111123WETL
2024-05-07 04:00:04FORECAST2024224-6257.16442.02649.595125.72707714348005.575.57TF25.164145.164131447.6811972770456.2856484257380.78019895632899164111123WETL
2024-05-07 00:00:02FORECAST2024224-6257.88442.90850.396121.39971862606005.635.63TF25.884142.884131446.0209611939454.1468191902690.80009356842067164111123WETL
2024-05-06 20:00:03FORECAST2024224-6257.243.37650.288117.08939648684005.655.65TF25.2138.2131444.3490206473452.0285586571160.7812198662679164111123WETL
2024-05-06 16:00:02FORECAST2024224-6257.57843.12450.351117.20657719938005.655.65TF25.578141.578131444.3947166080152.0859836591120.79177377369654164111123WETL
2024-05-06 12:00:02FORECAST2024224-6257.8343.64650.738119.37397669344005.665.66TF25.83139.83131445.2374711903553.1497675089240.79864004240768164111123WETL
2024-05-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024224-6258.40644.22251.314119.69938232335005.755.75TF26.406140.406131445.3635992645753.3097477412730.81381720992768164111123WETL
2024-05-06 04:00:04FORECAST2024224-6258.80243.39451.098120.0788959104005.765.76TF26.802136.802131445.5105680937853.4964171331140.82382944293426164111123WETL
2024-05-06 00:00:03FORECAST2024224-6256.343.05249.676116.74496672925005.645.64TF24.3130.3131444.2146275513551.8598219141280.75489220142883164111123WETL
2024-05-05 20:00:03FORECAST2024224-6256.62442.72849.676112.82361869376005.85.8TF24.624131.624131442.6762381814249.9443351013670.76456131194452164111123WETL
2024-05-05 16:00:03FORECAST2024224-6258.15443.55650.855112.23578649898005.715.71TF26.154133.154131442.4443014403949.6580841541560.80726625971629164111123WETL
2024-05-05 12:00:02FORECAST2024224-6257.00241.9949.496115.007234872005.625.62TF25.002130.002131443.5347858211851.0097092868370.77557122196266164111123WETL
2024-05-05 08:00:03FORECAST2024224-6257.63241.95449.793114.22309554852005.555.55TF25.632130.632131443.2270281003350.6267631803930.7932566104278164111123WETL
2024-05-05 04:00:05FORECAST2024224-6257.00241.59449.298115.23102340742005.595.59TF25.002127.002131443.6225056074651.1190753277120.77557122196266164111123WETL
2024-05-05 00:00:03FORECAST2024224-6258.87441.2750.072124.10477208934005.535.53TF26.874127.874131447.0609203450355.4823936294710.82561263474177164111123WETL
2024-05-04 20:00:02FORECAST2024224-6258.85643.5251.188124.13121910563005.645.64TF26.856124.856131447.0710526834455.4954747964310.82516791275413164111123WETL
2024-05-04 16:00:02FORECAST2024224-6257.95642.76450.36124.76667524971005.755.75TF25.956125.956131447.3143030808755.8099183870410.80202177813293164111123WETL
2024-05-04 12:00:04FORECAST2024224-6258.69443.71851.206124.97027969399005.625.62TF26.694125.694131447.3921591368455.910723260230.82113315213722164111123WETL
2024-05-04 08:00:04FORECAST2024224-6257.30842.60249.955125.71384647642005.975.97TF25.308119.308131447.6761489550156.2790906608850.78426620290089164111123WETL
2024-05-04 04:00:05FORECAST2024224-6257.99242.29650.144126.3272355507005.915.91TF25.992118.992131447.9100167228256.5832341880590.80298166489538164111123WETL
2024-05-04 00:00:03FORECAST2024224-6259.3640.60449.982130.96059492641006.036.03TF27.36114.36131449.6648623519158.8883778911090.83734844491144164111123WETL
2024-05-03 20:00:04FORECAST2024224-6259.16239.6549.406131.87402068324005.955.95TF27.162111.162131450.008384248759.3444149720420.83263049585272164111123WETL
2024-05-03 16:00:03FORECAST2024224-6258.89239.39849.145131.71952657719006.066.06TF26.892109.892131449.9503379675959.2672455003380.8260566391407164111123WETL
2024-05-03 12:00:02FORECAST2024224-6257.14638.3947.768131.95612626799005.875.87TF25.146108.146131450.0392235609359.3854326097550.77968747948994164111123WETL
2024-05-03 08:00:04FORECAST2024224-6257.50640.58649.046130.32436871163005.885.88TF25.506113.506131449.4251185448158.5710448575020.78978694677829164111123WETL
2024-05-03 04:00:05FORECAST2024224-6256.2140.2848.245131.22634489254005.85.8TF24.21111.21131449.7648880355459.0210023179050.75216898415047164111123WETL
2024-05-03 00:00:04FORECAST2024224-6254.89638.37246.634138.30787458161006.216.21TF22.896100.896131452.4055865159462.5712551198660.7106447000109164111123WETL
2024-05-02 20:00:04FORECAST2024224-6258.6439.248.92137.37275388989006.026.02TF26.64105.64131452.0595964948162.1006716928470.81977534167731164111123WETL
2024-05-02 16:00:03FORECAST2024224-6258.47839.1148.794136.6779099655005.885.88TF26.478107.478131451.8019749746161.7513496578160.8156633209297164111123WETL
2024-05-02 12:00:03FORECAST2024224-6255.2237.0446.13139.39425766505006.496.49TF23.2295.22131452.8065122822963.1186276454930.72118042493202164111123WETL
2024-05-02 08:00:03FORECAST2024224-6252.86237.70645.284138.770420255790.0110236280.0110236286.366.371023628TF20.86290.862131452.5764225829562.80422035970.64063218113951163111122.5WETL
2024-05-02 04:00:08FORECAST2024224-6253.47438.13845.806139.656189139020.0110236280.0110236286.556.561023628TF21.47489.474131452.903011737763.2507086688740.6623394902527163111122.5WETL
2024-05-02 00:00:03FORECAST2024224-6241.16237.45439.308139.32618761353005.975.97TF9.16282.162131452.7814237496763.0843095932650.2229644374726161111121.5WETL
2024-05-01 20:00:03FORECAST2024224-6237.09432.07234.583143.89301365059006.346.34TF5.09457.094131454.455035736365.3929046607820.12451508336199161111121.5WETL
2024-05-01 16:00:03FORECAST2024224-6239.54232.07235.807141.06958308808006.156.15TF7.54272.542131453.422620655563.9641400585760.17939276899617161111121.5WETL
2024-05-01 12:00:03FORECAST2024224-6237.97633.69235.834140.8929865762400.016.096.1TF5.97681.976131453.3578000476563.8749344363490.14275773866949161111121.5WETL
2024-05-01 08:00:04FORECAST2024224-6240.74835.97838.363141.2627462924800.046.246.28TF8.74887.748131453.4934888613264.0617356623090.21129238259474161111121.5WETL
2024-05-01 04:00:06FORECAST2024224-6239.52437.90438.714144.8672472233600.416.316.72TT7.52476.524131454.8095591179765.8870088402920.17894076382804161112123WETL