MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 10, 2024

[ Thursday, May 9, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, May 11, 2024 ]

DAY 223 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/10/2024 12:00:03 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.47°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.75°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.11°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.903
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 146

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.93 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.97 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 130 in
SWE DAY: 130
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 58.23 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -63

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-10 00:00:03FORECAST2024223-6361.46640.74851.107129.783264800.045.935.97TF29.466146.466130448.6548584340258.2278922959490.9029598192668165111123.5WETL
2024-05-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024223-6362.16841.5451.854133.430185600.045.935.97TF30.168147.168130450.0309594951960.0477144511890.91373711008875165111123.5WETL
2024-05-09 16:00:02FORECAST2024223-6361.91642.69252.304133.381871200.045.935.97TF29.916146.916130450.0128121036160.0235509423540.90997594245796165111123.5WETL
2024-05-09 12:00:02FORECAST2024223-6361.91642.69252.304131.56855600.045.935.97TF29.916146.916130449.3300992263259.1177123225440.90997594245796165111123.5WETL
2024-05-09 08:00:02FORECAST2024223-6362.00642.83652.421131.554484800.045.935.97TF30.006147.006130449.3247891171959.110691140180.91133291617314165111123.5WETL
2024-05-09 04:00:04FORECAST2024223-6362.47443.10652.79131.7834711500.045.935.97TF30.474148.474130449.4111790973659.2249651550650.91814524172585165111123.5WETL
2024-05-09 00:00:02FORECAST2024223-6362.25843.14252.7134.54088768143005.935.93TF30.258151.258130450.4475372634860.6036115173440.91505160110174165111123.5WETL
2024-05-08 20:00:02FORECAST2024223-6362.13242.96252.547136.3649664005.935.93TF30.132150.132130451.129127929161.5182083721140.91320708950555165111123.5WETL
2024-05-08 16:00:02FORECAST2024223-6362.13243.19652.664136.2985464005.935.93TF30.132150.132130451.1043645961361.4848691691480.91320708950555165111123.5WETL
2024-05-08 12:00:03FORECAST2024223-6360.85442.85451.854135.74283078358005.935.93TF28.854147.854130450.8970136581861.2060370258250.89278736644647165111123.5WETL
2024-05-08 08:00:02FORECAST2024223-6360.31442.76451.539135.84345888498005.935.93TF28.314146.314130450.9345821406161.2565133688350.88319381355593165111123.5WETL
2024-05-08 04:00:04FORECAST2024223-6360.02642.72851.377135.91322884775005.935.93TF28.026144.026130450.9606244131961.2915145471940.87783612583493165111123.5WETL
2024-05-08 00:00:03FORECAST2024223-6360.24242.51251.377128.58045084396005.565.56TF28.242145.242130448.1981952891757.6295260177290.88187022306176165111123.5WETL
2024-05-07 20:00:02FORECAST2024223-6359.25242.15250.702127.21840454663005.585.58TF27.252141.252130447.6793903749356.9530577919060.86259308423747165111123.5WETL
2024-05-07 16:00:02FORECAST2024223-6358.83842.0850.459127.30757230779005.585.58TF26.838140.838130447.7134094043856.9973072409150.8539292730932165111123.5WETL
2024-05-07 12:00:03FORECAST2024223-6358.60440.83849.721128.22666927746005.585.58TF26.604139.604130448.063612012657.4537045928040.84887381565536164111123WETL
2024-05-07 08:00:03FORECAST2024223-6358.5541.50450.027128.08079990171005.585.58TF26.55140.55130448.0080861142757.381234031950.84769087890987164111123WETL
2024-05-07 04:00:04FORECAST2024223-6358.80240.42449.613127.94137234348005.575.57TF26.802141.802130447.9549930920757.3119765643150.85315897343529165111123.5WETL
2024-05-07 00:00:02FORECAST2024223-6358.51440.31649.415123.71103622606005.635.63TF26.514138.514130446.3351388095555.2165825262320.84689885792027164111123WETL
2024-05-06 20:00:03FORECAST2024223-6358.31641.01849.667119.44135328684005.655.65TF26.316135.316130444.6824733222653.113476396550.84249415517552164111123WETL
2024-05-06 16:00:02FORECAST2024223-6359.14440.22649.685119.48286439938005.655.65TF27.144138.144130444.6986274547953.133865802770.86036743809592165111123.5WETL
2024-05-06 12:00:02FORECAST2024223-6357.41640.7349.073121.77109909344005.665.66TF25.416136.416130445.586469003854.2595540717580.8214370142725164111123WETL
2024-05-06 08:00:02FORECAST2024223-6356.62441.03648.83122.16636872335005.755.75TF24.624135.624130445.7393127436554.4543532351340.80151097535233164111123WETL
2024-05-06 04:00:04FORECAST2024223-6357.14639.45248.299122.5493263104005.765.76TF25.146132.146130445.8872493497854.6431820182110.81478991126775164111123WETL
2024-05-06 00:00:03FORECAST2024223-6356.26440.74848.506119.04565712925005.645.64TF24.264128.264130444.5284018391352.9191757095540.79202777071768164111123WETL
2024-05-05 20:00:03FORECAST2024223-6356.33639.99248.164115.1504834937600.015.795.8TF24.336129.336130443.0034516731951.0120616495710.79394547517099164111123WETL
2024-05-05 16:00:02FORECAST2024223-6356.04840.6448.344114.70602009898005.715.71TF24.048129.048130442.828484480250.7950930411880.78621192091788164111123WETL
2024-05-05 12:00:02FORECAST2024223-6355.23839.30847.273117.328687672005.625.62TF23.238127.238130443.8580719648352.0772850962560.76357808968601164111123WETL
2024-05-05 08:00:03FORECAST2024223-6356.10238.8447.471116.52634434852005.555.55TF24.102127.102130443.5438217984751.6845401125490.78767467791738164111123WETL
2024-05-05 04:00:04FORECAST2024223-6355.05838.69646.877117.5510986074200.015.585.59TF23.058124.058130443.9450693367152.1862306218780.7583752826302164111123WETL
2024-05-05 00:00:02FORECAST2024223-6356.04839.36247.705126.52029528934005.535.53TF24.048123.048130447.4127832597856.6067974542540.78621192091788164111123WETL
2024-05-04 20:00:02FORECAST2024223-6355.0441.41448.227126.62398630563005.645.64TF23.04120.04130447.4524126388656.6582081704030.7578516100691164111123WETL
2024-05-04 16:00:02FORECAST2024223-6355.81441.07248.443127.20000884971005.755.75TF23.814121.814130447.6723711424256.9439295710860.77980599498526164111123WETL
2024-05-04 12:00:04FORECAST2024223-6357.23635.1546.193127.49443649399005.625.62TF25.236121.236130447.7846763075457.0900549764750.81702245173632164111123WETL
2024-05-04 08:00:04FORECAST2024223-6354.48237.97646.229128.02555767642005.975.97TF22.482116.482130447.9870525169457.3537922302970.74131723010836164111123WETL
2024-05-04 04:00:04FORECAST2024223-6354.08638.33646.211128.6310747507005.915.91TF22.086115.086130448.2174434167457.6546914687040.72923872147242164111123WETL
2024-05-04 00:00:03FORECAST2024223-6353.6938.91246.301133.26315492641006.036.03TF21.69108.69130449.9682115752659.9641834911140.71688540915945164111123WETL
2024-05-03 20:00:03FORECAST2024223-6353.72635.63644.681134.11458868324005.955.95TF21.726105.726130450.2877893452660.3901616571230.71801951373933164111123WETL
2024-05-03 16:00:03FORECAST2024223-6353.25835.81644.537133.9382497771900.016.056.06TF21.258105.258130450.2216589060360.3019010056580.70310847490409164111123WETL
2024-05-03 12:00:02FORECAST2024223-6353.00634.44843.727134.01514626799005.875.87TF21.006105.006130450.2505001926960.3403866405590.69493297626379163111122.5WETL
2024-05-03 08:00:04FORECAST2024223-6355.90436.546.202132.53315351163005.885.88TF23.904109.904130449.6936614643359.5993190680580.78228271864765164111123WETL
2024-05-03 04:00:05FORECAST2024223-6354.30236.28445.293133.32482329254005.85.8TF22.302109.302130449.9913814482759.9950214147560.73586172108672164111123WETL
2024-05-03 00:00:03FORECAST2024223-6351.7134.30443.007140.1942025816100.036.186.21TF19.7199.71130452.5497397577263.4448498938480.65141078831791163111122.5WETL
2024-05-02 20:00:04FORECAST2024223-6353.45633.42243.439139.55438028989006.026.02TF21.456101.456130452.3133319358463.1223067351630.70946093502656164111123WETL
2024-05-02 16:00:02FORECAST2024223-6353.27634.59243.934138.825096365500.015.875.88TF21.276103.276130452.0434000023862.7549685667190.70368858757672164111123WETL
2024-05-02 12:00:03FORECAST2024223-6349.9134.77242.341141.0713872650500.076.426.49TF17.9193.91130452.8732267673663.8874543552730.58762066510401163111122.5WETL
2024-05-02 08:00:03FORECAST2024223-6351.11635.0643.088140.4012034557900.076.296.36TF19.11692.116130452.6261422529963.5492550878740.63073083444065163111122.5WETL
2024-05-02 04:00:08FORECAST2024223-6350.05433.04441.549141.3492595390200.066.496.55TF18.05490.054130452.9755499084364.0277585688390.59283542411632163111122.5WETL
2024-05-02 00:00:03FORECAST2024223-6352.75433.72843.241139.6375252135300.15.875.97TF20.75494.754130452.3440748621463.1642071587510.68665910809943163112125WETL
2024-05-01 20:00:03FORECAST2024223-6347.13830.16438.651144.0216224505900.056.296.34TF15.13874.138130453.9559372492665.3794706037160.4853093607654162111122WETL
2024-05-01 16:00:02FORECAST2024223-6351.74633.20642.476141.2638246880800.056.16.15TF19.74686.746130452.9440972349463.9846155452970.65265050342429163111122.5WETL
2024-05-01 12:00:03FORECAST2024223-6352.5233.15242.836141.0462937762400.145.966.1TF20.5297.52130452.8639828343863.8747863635370.67889113742403163112125WETL
2024-05-01 08:00:03FORECAST2024223-6354.80634.14244.474141.5201606924800.226.066.28TF22.806100.806130453.0384463555664.1140737281110.75098829405972164112126WETL
2024-05-01 04:00:06FORECAST2024223-6354.66232.39643.529144.977356823360.3232285210.6132285216.116.723228521TT22.66290.662130454.3049470686665.8639304177920.74671390128106164113129WETL
2024-05-01 00:00:04FORECAST2024223-6334.1629.60631.883143.1027416941300.135.715.84TF2.1673.16130453.6195856164764.9142063878720.10630820216406161112123WETL
2024-04-30 20:00:03FORECAST2024223-6332.97229.64231.307143.5470996419200.395.956.34TF0.97269.972130453.782338610165.1391385762070.087345119113365161112123WETL
2024-04-30 16:00:04FORECAST2024223-6336.19432.934.547143.3953039124200.415.936.34TF4.19470.194130453.7267617249665.0622868907480.14533151984209161112123WETL
2024-04-30 12:00:04FORECAST2024223-6336.01428.74232.378144.2822396540400.385.666.04TF4.01466.014130454.0511920376765.5115229047830.14153371998793161112123WETL
2024-04-30 08:00:04FORECAST2024223-6342.74639.18240.964140.1698335804300.415.235.64TF10.74683.746130452.5407426959963.4325605920610.32778846364373162112124WETL
2024-04-30 04:00:05FORECAST2024223-6339.99239.86639.929140.230374532600.435.225.65TF7.99284.992130452.5630934545863.4630920947660.24114038325623161112123WETL