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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 9, 2024

[ Wednesday, May 8, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, May 10, 2024 ]

DAY 222 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/09/2024 12:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.78°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.28°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.03°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.770
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 24
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 134

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.57 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.40 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.97 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 134 in
SWE DAY: 129
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 60.43 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -63

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-09 12:00:02FORECAST2024222-6355.77836.28446.031134.186684800.575.45.97TF23.778133.778130450.3148182289960.4262525744630.77046299542607164113129WETL
2024-05-09 08:00:01FORECAST2024222-6355.99436.75246.373134.177730400.575.45.97TF23.994133.994130450.3114614874760.4217698754960.77641063721917164113129WETL
2024-05-09 04:00:04FORECAST2024222-6356.67837.29246.985134.4294471500.575.45.97TF24.678134.678130450.4057936165560.547801829030.79465679250789164113129WETL
2024-05-09 00:00:02FORECAST2024222-6457.68637.56247.624137.1813532814300.535.45.93TF25.686137.686129450.8755271818561.8517149802850.81987564358991164113129WETL
2024-05-08 20:00:02FORECAST2024222-6457.70437.5847.642138.998445600.535.45.93TF25.704136.704129451.5525425089662.7651015154740.8203075917587164113129WETL
2024-05-08 16:00:02FORECAST2024222-6458.0137.54447.777138.956625600.535.45.93TF26.01137.01129451.5369962465962.7440573319860.82755113695989164113129WETL
2024-05-08 12:00:02FORECAST2024222-6456.73236.03246.382138.2763355835800.535.45.93TF24.732135.732129451.2838716207362.4018800756870.79605867381452164113129WETL
2024-05-08 08:00:02FORECAST2024222-6456.31836.69846.508138.3246148849800.535.45.93TF24.318135.318129451.3018499699862.4261545939780.78516590198976164113129WETL
2024-05-08 04:00:04FORECAST2024222-6455.50835.8745.689138.3619128477500.535.45.93TF23.508132.508129451.3157375554862.4449087464690.76290556277223164113129WETL
2024-05-08 00:00:03FORECAST2024222-6455.90436.3246.112131.0584580439600.165.45.56TF23.904133.904129448.5711070520158.7890376133070.77394315009885164112126WETL
2024-05-07 20:00:02FORECAST2024222-6454.87836.17645.527129.6195613466300.185.45.58TF22.878130.878129448.024341620958.0727186335130.74475256812477164112126WETL
2024-05-07 16:00:02FORECAST2024222-6454.536.0545.275129.6248923077900.185.45.58TF22.5130.5129448.026371019758.0753700944780.73352238956193164112126WETL
2024-05-07 12:00:02FORECAST2024222-6455.2235.16845.194130.4626124774600.185.45.58TF23.22130.22129448.3449344696158.492251441940.7546960977325164112126WETL
2024-05-07 08:00:02FORECAST2024222-6454.89635.90645.401130.3858199017100.185.45.58TF22.896130.896129448.3157604389658.4540179996920.7452811073156164112126WETL
2024-05-07 04:00:04FORECAST2024222-6455.25634.91645.086130.1615715434800.175.45.57TF23.256132.256129448.2305343581258.3423907658280.75573055454371164112126WETL
2024-05-07 00:00:02FORECAST2024222-6454.534.82644.663125.9261186260600.215.425.63TF22.5128.5129446.6116905131556.2400767193440.73352238956193164112126WETL
2024-05-06 20:00:02FORECAST2024222-6453.61835.04244.33121.6950084868400.225.435.65TF21.618125.618129444.9770238988354.1514826998180.7063835850457164112126WETL
2024-05-06 16:00:02FORECAST2024222-6453.74434.6144.177121.6884019993800.225.435.65TF21.744127.744129444.9744577566454.1482306949450.71033774075837164112126WETL
2024-05-06 12:00:02FORECAST2024222-6454.1434.744.42123.9893302934400.235.435.66TF22.14128.14129445.865602730955.2825774834860.72259971934721164112126WETL
2024-05-06 08:00:02FORECAST2024222-6452.75435.40244.078124.3679703233500.265.495.75TF20.754127.754129446.0117508651455.4695761954610.6786220361317163112125WETL
2024-05-06 04:00:04FORECAST2024222-6452.10634.95243.529124.668665510400.265.55.76TF20.106124.106129446.1277136216455.6181467044130.65711404326163112125WETL
2024-05-06 00:00:02FORECAST2024222-6451.58433.90842.746121.1468907292500.365.285.64TF19.584120.584129444.763973337953.8817724782730.63940595764715163112125WETL
2024-05-05 20:00:03FORECAST2024222-6451.74633.29642.521117.2284946937600.425.385.8TF19.746121.746129443.2322426305451.9594486033160.64493575285401163112125WETL
2024-05-05 16:00:02FORECAST2024222-6452.21434.5243.367116.8472040989800.375.345.71TF20.214122.214129443.0823777343751.7729370237910.66073663090749163112125WETL
2024-05-05 12:00:02FORECAST2024222-6451.72832.39642.062119.29963967200.365.265.62TF19.728120.728129444.0437681059652.9742615336370.64432281059764163112125WETL
2024-05-05 08:00:02FORECAST2024222-6451.7131.85641.783118.5305555485200.355.25.55TF19.71119.71129443.7429202539352.5970948584230.64370949512984163112125WETL
2024-05-05 04:00:04FORECAST2024222-6450.12631.51440.82119.4968602074200.375.225.59TF18.126118.126129444.1208215701853.0710437303770.58845149859686163112125WETL
2024-05-05 00:00:02FORECAST2024222-6450.66630.70440.685128.5110256893400.375.165.53TF18.666115.666129447.6017449723757.5217593467380.60754901765498163112125WETL
2024-05-04 20:00:02FORECAST2024222-6450.75632.14441.45128.7388975056300.335.315.64TF18.756113.756129447.688711592457.634951156120.61070824968918163112125WETL
2024-05-04 16:00:02FORECAST2024222-6452.10630.9241.513129.3360760497100.385.375.75TF20.106115.106129447.9163843925157.9317475557010.65711404326163112125WETL
2024-05-04 12:00:03FORECAST2024222-6449.65829.46239.56129.2448740939900.315.315.62TF17.658112.658129447.8816362182757.8864056820430.5717273170199163112125WETL
2024-05-04 08:00:04FORECAST2024222-6449.9129.60639.758129.9224144764200.325.655.97TF17.91110.91129448.1395886815358.2233773839750.58075066643957163112125WETL
2024-05-04 04:00:04FORECAST2024222-6449.0128.6738.84130.483257950700.335.585.91TF17.01110.01129448.3527768571458.5025310355610.54836276115619163112125WETL
2024-05-04 00:00:03FORECAST2024222-6448.5630.88439.722135.0171349264100.455.586.03TF16.56103.56129450.0650913139760.7664991596050.53203320058385163112125WETL
2024-05-03 20:00:03FORECAST2024222-6448.34429.24638.795135.7925054832400.495.465.95TF16.344101.344129450.3559569606461.1549637549850.52417410455572163112125WETL
2024-05-03 16:00:03FORECAST2024222-6448.66829.71439.191135.5824153771900.565.56.06TF16.668100.668129450.2772021887361.0496706620320.53595826409846163113127.5WETL
2024-05-03 12:00:02FORECAST2024222-6449.76628.6739.218135.5366070679900.315.565.87TF17.766100.766129450.2600248184861.0267160622470.57559934793975163112125WETL
2024-05-03 08:00:04FORECAST2024222-6449.5527.7738.66134.3520775116300.325.565.88TF17.55102.55129449.8151507643360.4336000013940.56784836901664163112125WETL
2024-05-03 04:00:05FORECAST2024222-6449.22629.64239.434135.0247816925400.35.55.8TF17.226104.226129450.0679626518760.7703284038740.55617369588328163112125WETL
2024-05-03 00:00:03FORECAST2024222-6449.20827.8638.534141.6548521816100.395.826.21TF17.20897.208129452.5366649114564.104014374790.55552357465725163112125WETL
2024-05-02 20:00:04FORECAST2024222-6450.25228.54439.398141.0416962898900.295.736.02TF18.25297.252129452.3100973484963.7945833790780.59292816918449163112125WETL
2024-05-02 16:00:02FORECAST2024222-6448.81230.34439.578140.333371565500.215.675.88TF16.81298.812129452.0479242592563.4374093204870.54118617760973163112125WETL
2024-05-02 12:00:03FORECAST2024222-6443.93426.38435.159142.3843384650500.396.16.49TF11.93492.934129452.8057585533364.4724483847830.36595697508991162112124WETL
2024-05-02 08:00:03FORECAST2024222-6445.42824.99835.213141.8102914557900.326.046.36TF13.42890.428129452.5940453184664.1824934777680.4184027363775162112124WETL
2024-05-02 04:00:07FORECAST2024222-6443.73625.734.718142.6271803390200.396.166.55TT11.73688.736129452.8952277494164.5951693228990.35916771723989162112124WETL
2024-05-02 00:00:03FORECAST2024222-6444.18624.69234.439141.0798724135300.565.415.97TF12.18691.186129452.3242141316863.8138424192450.37465864745381162113126WETL
2024-05-01 20:00:03FORECAST2024222-6440.6422.60431.622144.9576032505900.385.966.34TF8.6475.64129453.7510154362765.7746596701620.25986081099131162112124WETL
2024-05-01 16:00:02FORECAST2024222-6445.01426.38435.699142.5943894880800.375.786.15TF13.01484.014129452.8831499785764.5785962806320.40367967612714162112124WETL
2024-05-01 12:00:03FORECAST2024222-6442.31427.98635.15141.689810671830.0094488240.3894488245.716.099448824TF10.31494.314129452.5495718125464.1216631497390.31181795345245162112124WETL
2024-05-01 08:00:03FORECAST2024222-6441.97226.8734.421142.374483919120.0350393890.4950393895.786.275039389TF9.97294.972129452.8021267196964.4674691091950.30084377469081162113126WETL
2024-05-01 04:00:05FORECAST2024222-6439.3825.93432.657145.042743845470.090551230.650551235.756.40055123TT7.3885.38129453.7821853087565.8178132653740.22392562308352161113124.5WETL
2024-05-01 00:00:04FORECAST2024222-6445.93226.0635.996143.130392094130.0200787510.6800787515.165.840078751TF13.93287.932129453.0804483427164.8495822214770.43647996724977162113126WETL
2024-04-30 20:00:03FORECAST2024222-6441.75624.0832.918143.552413241920.0051181130.9951181135.346.335118113TT9.75685.756129453.2356021306365.0630644530070.29400368251833162114128WETL
2024-04-30 16:00:04FORECAST2024222-6441.25222.58631.919143.481207112420.0066929170.9966929175.346.336692917TT9.25283.252129453.2094352450965.0270368437030.2783294191586162114128WETL
2024-04-30 12:00:04FORECAST2024222-6441.46823.9932.729144.306052454040.1551181940.8451181945.196.035118194TF9.46879.468129453.5122601483365.4445640015160.28499699741631162113126WETL
2024-04-30 08:00:04FORECAST2024222-6448.95624.63836.797140.544442380430.2625985670.7625985674.885.642598567TF16.95689.956129452.1260974981463.5438102585160.54640697765232163113127.5WETL
2024-04-30 04:00:05FORECAST2024222-6448.95624.56636.761140.36036093260.2653544740.7853544744.865.645354474TF16.95693.956129452.0579225127963.4510131663340.54640697765232163113127.5WETL
2024-04-30 00:00:03FORECAST2024222-6445.42828.81437.121134.7382097711200.584.254.83TF13.428101.428129449.9603176216960.6268476643910.4184027363775162113126WETL
2024-04-29 20:00:04FORECAST2024222-6437.5829.76833.674135.81132577580.1500000810.8400000814.685.520000081TF5.5883.58129450.3630099200861.1643974576240.17783524122762161113124.5WETL
2024-04-29 16:00:05FORECAST2024222-6437.56230.9234.241131.190158454630.1500000810.8700000814.735.600000081TF5.56294.562129448.6210520561558.8546669053290.1774067504818161113124.5WETL
2024-04-29 12:00:04FORECAST2024222-6431.3729.2130.29133.7599275018700.644.745.38TF-0.6391.37129449.5922545314960.1374273715330.067812406863229161113124.5WETL
2024-04-29 08:00:03FORECAST2024222-6429.22825.80827.518137.8198043670101.324.716.03TF-2.77293.228129451.1137585169162.1724099460680.045632615773842161114126WETL
2024-04-29 04:00:07FORECAST2024222-6429.2128.428.805138.0624627901601.324.76.02TF-2.7987.21129451.2042026927662.2943634450350.045474485224447161114126WETL