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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 8, 2024

[ Tuesday, May 7, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, May 9, 2024 ]

DAY 221 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/09/2024 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.02°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.94°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.48°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.437
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 113

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.21 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.76 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.97 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 136 in
SWE DAY: 128
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 61.35 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -65

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-09 04:00:04OBSERVATION2024221-6546.0200224.9400435.48003136.333388750.0400000000000771.21000000000014.765.9700000000001TF14.02002113.02002128449.99755743035 61.3496919337030.4365340833064816 2114128WETL
2024-05-09 00:00:01FORECAST2024221-6447.85824.58436.221139.1516164814301.174.765.93TF15.858114.858129451.6094685040162.8421875606530.505279678780441631141210WETL
2024-05-08 12:00:01FORECAST2024221-6446.79624.04435.42140.2192435835801.174.765.93TF14.796113.796129452.0056377906663.3798886265210.46544523155905162114128WETL
2024-05-08 08:00:01FORECAST2024221-6446.54424.29635.42140.2437100849801.174.765.93TF14.544113.544129452.0147041014763.3922191161570.45602876252668162114128WETL
2024-05-08 04:00:04FORECAST2024221-6445.24823.50434.376140.1829032477501.174.765.93TF13.248112.248129451.9921704698263.3615747017120.40810287562574162114128WETL
2024-05-08 00:00:02FORECAST2024221-6545.42824.13434.781132.9192020439600.84.765.56TF13.428113.428128448.7093648331559.6420907232730.414694390673162113126WETL
2024-05-07 20:00:01FORECAST2024221-6544.85223.28834.07131.3821021466300.824.765.58TF12.852110.852128448.1257511810458.8757032162020.39369520474203162113126WETL
2024-05-07 16:00:01FORECAST2024221-6545.3223.28834.304131.3653915077900.824.765.58TF13.32111.32128448.1193938747458.8673796185880.41073647380268162113126WETL
2024-05-07 12:00:02FORECAST2024221-6544.00621.88432.945132.1505660774600.824.765.58TF12.006110.006128448.4178101678659.2586674528970.36342078456791162113126WETL
2024-05-07 08:00:02FORECAST2024221-6544.40222.65833.53132.1194311017100.824.765.58TF12.402111.402128448.4059882245559.2431440668270.37749871745163162113126WETL
2024-05-07 04:00:04FORECAST2024221-6544.58222.0133.296131.870877943480.0003937010.8103937014.765.570393701TF12.582111.582128448.3115791160159.1192415302580.38395326904228162113126WETL
2024-05-07 00:00:02FORECAST2024221-6543.5222.04632.783127.579829026060.0003937010.8703937014.765.630393701TF11.52108.52128446.6722579189856.9863702959880.34639382695072162113126WETL
2024-05-06 20:00:02FORECAST2024221-6543.39422.51432.954123.3354348868400.894.765.65TF11.394107.394128445.0330878835654.8883494331520.34202798009365162113126WETL
2024-05-06 16:00:02FORECAST2024221-6543.98822.78433.386123.3030475993800.894.765.65TF11.988108.988128445.0205119669454.8723853697590.36278507448612162113126WETL
2024-05-06 12:00:02FORECAST2024221-6543.8823.46833.674125.6527822934400.94.765.66TF11.88108.88128445.9302291641656.0323740032280.35897880325363162113126WETL
2024-05-06 08:00:02FORECAST2024221-6543.7923.28833.539125.9865519233500.994.765.75TF11.79109.79128446.0590107187556.1974367147970.35581754700119162113126WETL
2024-05-06 04:00:04FORECAST2024221-6543.32222.58632.954126.1848127104014.765.76TF11.322107.322128446.1354559185756.2955189485520.33954260942739162114128WETL
2024-05-06 00:00:02FORECAST2024221-6541.95423.01832.486122.6308611292501.324.325.64TF9.954103.954128444.7592696644354.5412122341650.29374428622094162114128WETL
2024-05-05 20:00:03FORECAST2024221-6542.31423.19832.756118.679205893760.0086614221.3186614224.485.798661422TF10.314105.314128443.2144248759652.6003359849380.30551904363004162114128WETL
2024-05-05 16:00:02FORECAST2024221-6542.38623.30632.846118.3937568989801.234.485.71TF10.386105.386128443.1022309098152.4605378077330.30789885681757162114128WETL
2024-05-05 12:00:02FORECAST2024221-6541.75622.31632.036120.72693167201.144.485.62TF9.756103.756128444.0168904104553.6047967897950.28735889310078162114128WETL
2024-05-05 08:00:02FORECAST2024221-6541.46822.33431.901119.933149148520.0043307111.1443307114.415.554330711TF9.468103.468128443.70631712953.2150959103750.2781899077004162114128WETL
2024-05-05 04:00:04FORECAST2024221-6540.40622.02831.217120.749689007420.0114173291.1514173294.445.591417329TF8.406103.406128444.02578515653.6159754688630.24566313194835161114126WETL
2024-05-05 00:00:02FORECAST2024221-6540.60422.69431.649129.7560808893401.234.35.53TF8.60499.604128447.5058902948658.0666104995570.25156882016371162114128WETL
2024-05-04 20:00:02FORECAST2024221-6540.89223.14432.018130.0963255056301.124.525.64TF8.89297.892128447.6358079447958.235773778360.26029079779618162114128WETL
2024-05-04 16:00:02FORECAST2024221-6540.51422.58631.55130.657883249710.0023622061.2023622064.555.752362206TF8.51497.514128447.8499854942958.5151311180970.24887516815319161114126WETL
2024-05-04 12:00:03FORECAST2024221-6540.20822.13631.172130.3518654698801.044.585.62TF8.20898.208128447.7333085048758.3628719966130.23983260204814161114126WETL
2024-05-04 08:00:04FORECAST2024221-6539.43422.60431.019131.1095291135101.064.915.97TF7.43496.434128448.0220212471658.7399562381970.21778035905955161114126WETL
2024-05-04 04:00:04FORECAST2024221-6537.77821.03829.408131.5882984884501.064.855.91TF5.77895.778128448.2041732145258.9784245287210.17472708993148161114126WETL
2024-05-04 00:00:03FORECAST2024221-6537.8521.79429.822136.1179357264101.194.846.03TF5.8589.85128449.916595566961.241718237620.17647883671576161114126WETL
2024-05-03 20:00:03FORECAST2024221-6538.46220.46229.462136.8357422832401.274.685.95TF6.46288.462128450.1861573391861.6015570051440.19181313080826161114126WETL
2024-05-03 16:00:02FORECAST2024221-6537.50821.43429.471136.651334577190.0062992161.3562992164.76.056299216TT5.50886.508128450.1169526228361.5090822917280.16825654699327161114126WETL
2024-05-03 12:00:02FORECAST2024221-6539.07421.03830.056136.588503067990.0023622060.9823622064.895.872362206TF7.07486.074128450.0933657437161.4775790677680.20793500954958161113124.5WETL
2024-05-03 08:00:04FORECAST2024221-6539.39821.27230.335135.428770311630.0027559071.0627559074.825.882755907TF7.39888.398128449.6573266980860.8965388163350.21678390917983161114126WETL
2024-05-03 04:00:04FORECAST2024221-6539.12822.49630.812136.068904092540.0023622061.0223622064.785.802362206TF7.12890.128128449.8981645142361.2171501986950.20939486669498161114126WETL
2024-05-03 00:00:03FORECAST2024221-6538.35421.45229.903142.666305781610.0255905651.20559056556.205590565TT6.35483.354128452.3576258726464.5361913753890.18904949834153161114126WETL
2024-05-02 20:00:04FORECAST2024221-6537.72421.6529.687142.0651546898901.054.976.02TF5.72481.724128452.1352240094864.2326605396560.17342053229898161114126WETL
2024-05-02 16:00:02FORECAST2024221-6539.39821.7430.569141.35407476550.0051181130.9051181134.975.875118113TF7.39885.398128451.8717140818463.873908056740.21678390917983161113124.5WETL
2024-05-02 12:00:03FORECAST2024221-6536.35622.129.228143.108562465050.0653543661.1653543665.326.485354366TT4.35684.356128452.5210264816164.7596335849940.1424010126816161114126WETL
2024-05-02 08:00:02FORECAST2024221-6535.76220.69628.229142.585191455790.0665354691.0765354695.286.356535469TT3.76279.762128452.3276366316564.4952226698710.13017560811792161114126WETL
2024-05-02 04:00:07FORECAST2024221-6535.6921.50628.598143.238145939020.0633858611.1533858615.46.553385861TT3.6979.69128452.5688689372764.8251256962960.12874450001738161114126WETL
2024-05-02 00:00:03FORECAST2024221-6534.41221.52427.968141.717307613530.1011811571.0211811574.955.971181157TF2.41282.412128452.0063793167264.0571271009040.10513921111225161114126WETL
2024-05-01 20:00:02FORECAST2024221-6533.06219.8526.456145.329161650590.0460630170.9760630175.366.336063017TT1.06270.062128453.3387025484265.8833335851270.083777221391362161113124.5WETL
2024-05-01 16:00:02FORECAST2024221-6535.13220.8427.986143.349215888080.047244120.857244125.296.14724412TF3.13274.132128452.6098636344964.8812690552160.11802215482443161113124.5WETL
2024-05-01 12:00:02FORECAST2024221-6536.82422.6429.732142.115369198060.1346457420.9446457425.156.094645742TF4.82486.824128452.153814370564.2580062635730.15256237088543161113124.5WETL
2024-05-01 08:00:03FORECAST2024221-6535.52823.41429.471142.801741398610.1799213571.0599213575.186.239921357TT3.52887.528128452.407684779864.6046052086670.12556440412397161114126WETL
2024-05-01 04:00:05FORECAST2024221-6533.45823.86428.661145.016788508980.2035434171.2435434175.076.313543417TT1.45881.458128453.2239580844565.7250828767330.089675731508505161114126WETL
2024-05-01 00:00:04FORECAST2024221-6534.722.58628.643143.685772242840.114173291.344173294.485.82417329TF2.776.7128452.7340122919465.0514361767690.11016505447372161114126WETL
2024-04-30 20:00:03FORECAST2024221-6532.86424.06228.463143.909336803130.3799214651.6199214654.716.329921465TT0.86478.864128452.8164219757365.1645109800950.080939176121369161115127.5WETL
2024-04-30 16:00:03FORECAST2024221-6530.95621.81226.384143.72149921240.3960632061.6560632064.676.326063206TT-1.04476.956128452.7471849999365.0695041923830.057184859093917161115127.5WETL
2024-04-30 12:00:04FORECAST2024221-6531.42421.16426.294143.347294954530.2185040551.1185040554.765.878504055TF-0.57673.424128452.6091547373164.8802980032510.062432517637657161114126WETL
2024-04-30 08:00:04FORECAST2024221-6532.921.39827.149140.220088230070.1511811840.8911811844.495.381181184TF0.975.9128451.4504987148563.3024287613060.081449732051494161113124.5WETL
2024-04-30 04:00:05FORECAST2024221-6533.22421.36227.293139.963447789140.1555118950.8755118954.55.375511895TF1.22480.224128451.3550020366463.1732022619240.086154146212365161113124.5WETL
2024-04-30 00:00:03FORECAST2024221-6538.2122.9130.56134.105883835170.1700788320.9300788323.94.830078832TF6.2191.21128449.1583739956860.2347807266580.1854029444884161113124.5WETL
2024-04-29 20:00:04FORECAST2024221-6536.62622.89229.759134.609652250420.1212599081.3012599084.075.371259908TF4.62680.626128449.3485778663460.4866558058090.14820621770661161114126WETL
2024-04-29 16:00:05FORECAST2024221-6537.14822.1929.669130.76243206220.1661418221.3161418224.135.446141822TF5.14892.148128447.8898265831858.5671630199330.15987160334299161114126WETL
2024-04-29 12:00:04FORECAST2024221-6534.84424.04429.444133.759927501870.2933072451.4033072453.985.383307245TF2.84494.844128449.0276129591760.0619009557560.11274141691329161114126WETL
2024-04-29 08:00:03FORECAST2024221-6536.15826.18631.172137.819804367010.5874018921.8874018924.146.027401892TT4.15899.158128450.5549096589262.095389505790.13824264275186161115127.5WETL
2024-04-29 04:00:07FORECAST2024221-6536.06825.98831.028138.062462790160.5606302241.9006302244.126.020630224TT4.06893.068128450.6456981764862.2172549360370.13638003740801161115127.5WETL
2024-04-29 00:00:04FORECAST2024221-6530.54225.30427.923143.565928416870.1236221141.8736221145.47.273622114TT-1.45890.542128452.689816557364.9908337989130.052836950532205161115127.5WETL
2024-04-28 20:00:03FORECAST2024221-6529.08423.2726.177135.167886754730.1464567721.7064567725.076.776456772TT-2.91698.084128449.5590619916360.765948380850.039570400619589161115127.5WETL
2024-04-28 16:00:03FORECAST2024221-6529.31825.53827.428134.523638522180.1527559881.7527559885.086.832755988TT-2.68295.318128449.316119568260.4436392509810.041496407850445161115127.5WETL
2024-04-28 12:00:03FORECAST2024221-6532.75631.47832.117127.412832010290.244094621.404094624.856.25409462TT0.756105.756128446.608097675156.9036025235110.079421954280612161114126WETL
2024-04-28 08:00:03FORECAST2024221-6532.66630.36231.514130.108567270850.0468504191.4268504194.976.396850419TT0.66686.666128447.6404801995158.2418615311950.078174072270967161114126WETL
2024-04-28 04:00:05FORECAST2024221-6532.77431.47832.126133.521216118380.0377952961.4177952965.36.717795296TT0.77490.774128448.9373202534759.9426569611720.079673323854602161114126WETL