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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 14, 2024

[ Monday, May 13, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, May 15, 2024 ]

DAY 227 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/15/2024 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.46°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.96°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.704
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 212

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.95 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.95 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 96 in
SWE DAY: 134
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 437.57 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 41.83 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -59

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-05-15 04:00:02OBSERVATION2024227-5955.4599434.4600644.9695.596921666667004.954.95TF23.45994212.45994134437.57171235068 41.8305087091370.7042588212601716 4121123.5WETL
2024-05-15 00:00:02FORECAST2024227-5854.01433.4443.72798.516758277808004.954.95TF22.014211.014135439.3599685173643.284319815370.65751329084634163121123WETL
2024-05-14 12:00:01FORECAST2024227-5852.7932.95442.87299.61526997041004.954.95TF20.79209.79135439.8017134669943.8109664204630.61592440651656163121123WETL
2024-05-14 08:00:02FORECAST2024227-5852.77233.06242.91799.587573208601004.954.95TF20.772209.772135439.7905908968843.7976776673970.61530134551874163121123WETL
2024-05-14 04:00:04FORECAST2024227-5853.27633.7143.49399.318140612585004.954.95TF21.276210.276135439.6823502988843.6684334918570.63262899844579163121123WETL
2024-05-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024227-5954.33834.23244.28591.33336004.954.95TF22.338213.338134435.8260102829239.8054538945340.66823330555489163121123WETL
2024-05-13 20:00:02FORECAST2024227-5953.7834.23244.00693.4879856004.954.95TF21.78211.78134436.7105778360540.8271922121040.64969079459551163121123WETL
2024-05-13 16:00:01FORECAST2024227-5953.20433.87243.53893.5167184004.954.95TF21.204211.204134436.722341222340.8408402030750.63016915579264163121123WETL
2024-05-13 12:00:02FORECAST2024227-5953.45634.14243.79992.3600264004.954.95TF21.456211.456134436.2481053238940.2918865246640.63875465487459163121123WETL
2024-05-13 08:00:02FORECAST2024227-5953.634.08843.84492.386004004.954.95TF21.6211.6134436.2587712657840.3042045871950.6436297913575163121123WETL
2024-05-13 04:00:04FORECAST2024227-5954.24833.36843.80892.128725700.014.954.96TF22.248212.248134436.1531063216440.1822298955090.66526883987353163121123WETL
2024-05-13 00:00:01FORECAST2024227-5954.15833.27843.71889.424400.014.954.96TF22.158208.158134435.0382443639438.9030339792990.66229404435436163121123WETL
2024-05-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024227-5954.5932.7243.65593.498868800.014.954.96TF22.59205.59134436.7150335865340.8323616282950.67647749878106163121123WETL
2024-05-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024227-5954.5932.66643.62893.57347437817700.014.954.96TF22.59205.59134436.7455749486140.8678008672360.67647749878106163121123WETL
2024-05-12 12:00:03FORECAST2024227-5954.2332.48643.35891.70775261724100.024.954.97TF22.23206.23134435.98006245839.9827517139470.66467470199648163121123WETL
2024-05-12 08:00:02FORECAST2024227-5954.0532.79243.42191.71769480747300.034.954.98TF22.05206.05134435.9841513969739.9874613387230.6587108827544163121123WETL
2024-05-12 04:00:03FORECAST2024227-5954.57232.10843.3491.58115063333300.034.954.98TF22.572205.572134435.9279856465739.9227865187840.67589142885335163121123WETL
2024-05-12 00:00:02FORECAST2024227-5954.64432.5443.59294.24402881397800.024.954.97TF22.644204.644134437.0198208823441.1865085915150.67823308089934163121123WETL
2024-05-11 20:00:01FORECAST2024227-5954.17632.28843.23298.64706463183200.024.954.97TF22.176203.176134438.80903463443.2872232005720.66288982209091163121123WETL
2024-05-11 16:00:02FORECAST2024227-5953.47432.0942.78298.72923550039500.014.954.96TF21.474201.474134438.8422356818443.3265584341520.63936529930709163121123WETL
2024-05-11 12:00:03FORECAST2024227-5953.88832.3643.12496.361474120473004.954.95TF21.888202.888134437.8827618693342.1950284256730.65330930958684163121123WETL
2024-05-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024227-5953.13232.5442.83696.570615144711004.954.95TF21.132201.132134437.9677433649342.2948143902930.62770397758008163121123WETL
2024-05-11 04:00:04FORECAST2024227-5953.2432.59442.91796.209112645632004.954.95TF21.24202.24134437.8208235105942.1223529277340.63139974987764163121123WETL
2024-05-11 00:00:03FORECAST2024227-5952.35833.02642.692110.87565314058004.954.95TF20.358196.358134443.6745438109749.1927048268890.6008918267838163111122.5WETL
2024-05-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024227-5951.67431.9141.792115.4188112004.954.95TF19.674193.674134445.4440180295951.4126190171260.57678989662483163111122.5WETL
2024-05-10 16:00:03FORECAST2024227-5949.1931.69440.442115.56998670143004.954.95TF17.19192.19134445.5025477197751.4867235154270.48749366323731162111122WETL
2024-05-10 12:00:03FORECAST2024227-5948.7431.3740.055113.41261359897004.954.95TF16.74190.74134444.6651589462750.4306378524970.4712522835076162111122WETL
2024-05-10 08:00:02FORECAST2024227-5949.67632.25240.964112.9327188108500.014.954.96TF17.676192.676134444.4782620940550.1961385906040.50505687420344163111122.5WETL
2024-05-10 04:00:04FORECAST2024227-5950.66630.7440.703113.1019724108600.014.954.96TF18.666192.666134444.5442045594750.2788263594930.54076715999082163111122.5WETL
2024-05-10 00:00:03FORECAST2024227-5948.59631.08239.839123.2597558910200.014.954.96TF16.596191.596134448.4502954145355.2758739420520.46606382869446162111122WETL
2024-05-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024227-5949.13630.88440.01126.9162073815900.024.954.97TF17.136193.136134449.831867100157.0909545317220.48554306910167162111122WETL
2024-05-09 16:00:03FORECAST2024227-5953.85233.38643.619126.22932445306004.954.95TF21.852198.852134449.5733097146156.7493351774040.65210467068997163111122.5WETL
2024-05-09 12:00:03FORECAST2024227-5953.85233.38643.619124.41600925306004.954.95TF21.852198.852134448.8885678992855.8489242173520.65210467068997163111122.5WETL
2024-05-09 08:00:03FORECAST2024227-5953.65433.31443.484124.46166685306004.954.95TF21.654198.654134448.9058477983755.8715700770730.64545198628299163111122.5WETL
2024-05-09 04:00:05FORECAST2024227-5953.76233.27843.52124.73847810718004.954.95TF21.762199.762134449.0105688549856.0088950130070.64908637553005163121123WETL
2024-05-09 00:00:03FORECAST2024227-5949.69432.01840.856127.76515296998004.914.91TF17.694199.694134450.1508056514957.5135865436210.50570738513049163121123WETL
2024-05-08 20:00:02FORECAST2024227-5948.0231.71239.866129.63176435999004.914.91TF16.02197.02134450.8496550881258.4444362501660.44537635147193162111122WETL
2024-05-08 16:00:03FORECAST2024227-5946.09430.93838.516129.8658647448500.034.914.94TF14.094195.094134450.9370674347458.5613322079170.37758056311722162111122WETL
2024-05-08 12:00:03FORECAST2024227-5949.8232.14440.982129.226545025500.054.914.96TF17.82194.82134450.6982245580458.2421744087650.51026043983466163111122.5WETL
2024-05-08 08:00:03FORECAST2024227-5950.01832.64841.333129.4766047609500.014.914.92TF18.018191.018134450.7916903344758.3669775189540.51741231145157163111122.5WETL
2024-05-08 04:00:05FORECAST2024227-5951.18834.12442.656129.0353582583900.034.914.94TF19.188193.188134450.6267238984158.1467807590370.55948278561535163111122.5WETL
2024-05-08 00:00:04FORECAST2024227-5951.02631.78441.405122.5069755290200.034.544.57TF19.026187.026134448.1642649287454.9032486366060.5536867007426163111122.5WETL
2024-05-07 20:00:02FORECAST2024227-5950.88231.62241.252121.154129267400.044.564.6TF18.882180.882134447.6488535492754.2345070693120.54852493879925163111122.5WETL
2024-05-07 16:00:03FORECAST2024227-5948.230.77639.488122.7708597328600.034.564.59TF16.2170.2134448.2645940552955.0338295999690.45182791380635162111122WETL
2024-05-07 12:00:03FORECAST2024227-5949.53234.0741.801122.9261896668300.084.564.64TF17.532177.532134448.323619269355.1107142544150.49985244799824163111122.5WETL
2024-05-07 08:00:03FORECAST2024227-5950.88234.62842.755122.2137980310600.054.564.61TF18.882180.882134448.0527195652754.7582245762190.54852493879925163111122.5WETL
2024-05-07 04:00:05FORECAST2024227-5948.99233.2641.126122.36386354348004.554.55TF16.992177.992134448.1098254298354.832449531390.48034330214853162111122WETL
2024-05-07 00:00:03FORECAST2024227-5951.8933.22442.557117.7076884371200.024.614.63TF19.89179.89134446.3277872226252.5362121192270.58443669021643163111122.5WETL
2024-05-06 20:00:03FORECAST2024227-5950.75633.20641.981113.44087410364004.634.63TF18.756171.756134444.6761580061150.4444520572640.54400162690925163111122.5WETL
2024-05-06 16:00:03FORECAST2024227-5950.933.00841.954113.43136279938004.634.63TF18.9176.9134444.672456270650.4398027141210.54917062616968163111122.5WETL
2024-05-06 12:00:03FORECAST2024227-5953.9635.27644.618114.49845349344004.644.64TF21.96182.96134445.0872034715550.9617964672130.65571393497248163111122.5WETL
2024-05-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024227-5948.6534.77241.711113.93028872335004.734.73TF16.65189.65134444.8665142348750.6837704101290.46800887115244162111122WETL
2024-05-06 04:00:05FORECAST2024227-5948.6534.77241.711114.0631135104004.744.74TF16.65188.65134444.9181351925750.7487477573030.46800887115244162111122WETL
2024-05-06 00:00:03FORECAST2024227-5957.68640.08248.884109.89042272925004.624.62TF25.686191.686134443.2881135661648.7131181906370.76986209676101164111123WETL
2024-05-05 20:00:04FORECAST2024227-5952.77239.7446.256106.15003229376004.784.78TF20.772190.772134441.8122092796246.8983802828080.61530134551874163111122.5WETL
2024-05-05 16:00:03FORECAST2024227-5952.77240.11846.445105.82679769898004.694.69TF20.772187.772134441.6840061049946.742003960950.61530134551874163111122.5WETL
2024-05-05 12:00:03FORECAST2024227-5949.24427.46438.354108.959932578190.019685050.019685054.64.61968505TF17.244184.244134442.9222647172448.260780100970.48944455659545162111122WETL
2024-05-05 08:00:03FORECAST2024227-5954.75234.86244.807108.337791548520.015748040.015748044.534.54574804TF22.752188.752134442.677169373947.9586668989210.68173231085549163111122.5WETL
2024-05-05 04:00:05FORECAST2024227-5954.75234.86244.807109.318757807420.015748040.015748044.574.58574804TF22.752184.752134443.0634495687248.4351459367230.68173231085549163111122.5WETL
2024-05-05 00:00:03FORECAST2024227-5940.74834.08837.418119.247725799430.0295275750.0295275754.514.539527575TF8.748174.748134446.9195333546653.2941379678870.21295062069941161111121.5WETL
2024-05-04 20:00:03FORECAST2024227-5942.99830.70436.851118.8190951056300.014.624.63TF10.998173.998134446.7550680925253.0830329246060.27681118158769162111122WETL
2024-05-04 16:00:03FORECAST2024227-5940.80230.70435.753119.5059160497100.014.734.74TF8.802174.802134447.0185143736353.42135705140.21437536371448161111121.5WETL
2024-05-04 12:00:04FORECAST2024227-5936.3023234.151120.31999409399004.64.6TF4.302168.302134447.3301784736153.822764432010.1151992475301161111121.5WETL
2024-05-04 08:00:05FORECAST2024227-5930.79427.89629.345122.780239925460.0952756420.2152756424.955.165275642TF-1.206147.794134448.268159179555.0384721350040.044603097029581161112123WETL
2024-05-04 04:00:05FORECAST2024227-5931.13628.9430.038123.340669034120.0173228440.1373228444.895.027322844TF-0.864141.136134448.4810070696555.3159474610670.047608209900551161112123WETL