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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 21, 2024

[ Tuesday, February 20, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, February 22, 2024 ]

DAY 144 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/21/2024 11:00:01 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.29°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.53°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.41°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.313
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -12

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.91 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.63 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.25 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.88 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 110 in
SWE DAY: 52
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 386.82 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 42.55 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -141

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-21 11:00:01FORECAST2024144-14130.2926.52828.409110.009690738030.9086619081.6286619084.255.878661908TF-1.71-11.7152386.8246713595642.5544624661060.312884447117011621151210WETL
2024-02-21 07:00:05FORECAST2024144-14129.76826.27628.022109.85511528010.9976383341.7176383344.255.967638334TT-2.232-12.23252386.7417823420342.4855630828150.290934817133941621151210WETL
2024-02-21 03:00:04FORECAST2024144-14131.06426.5128.787109.391365789370.8641736951.5841736954.255.834173695TF-0.936-10.93652386.4929075226442.2789870218080.346668106858381621151210WETL
2024-02-20 23:00:02FORECAST2024144-14130.88426.31228.598109.048900318060.8641736951.3741736954.255.624173695TF-1.116-12.11652386.3089324586642.1265642676590.33868933177771162114128WETL
2024-02-20 19:00:01FORECAST2024144-14131.71227.44629.579108.523682977550.7413389831.2513389834.255.501338983TF-0.288-11.28852386.0264705948141.8930143157720.37593594999759162114128WETL
2024-02-20 15:00:01FORECAST2024144-14132.05426.22229.138108.697518828460.7956697211.3056697214.255.555669721TF0.054000000000002-10.94652386.1200012311741.9702861038710.3916882621621162114128WETL
2024-02-20 11:00:02FORECAST2024144-14131.85626.85229.354109.49973103890.6948822651.2048822654.255.454882265TF-0.144-11.14452386.5510888382542.3272402605810.38254502571409162114128WETL
2024-02-20 07:00:06FORECAST2024144-14131.85627.12229.489108.822081768570.6877956471.1077956474.255.357795647TF-0.144-12.14452386.1869956782642.0256728216570.38254502571409162114128WETL
2024-02-20 03:00:06FORECAST2024144-14131.78427.6829.732108.592211213090.6055121381.0355121384.255.285512138TF-0.216-10.21652386.0633464559641.9234724599770.37923607734256162114128WETL
2024-02-19 23:00:03FORECAST2024144-14131.44227.35629.399109.125340849160.4657482830.9657482834.255.215748283TF-0.558-17.55852386.3500107699742.1605766123510.36364284253597162113126WETL
2024-02-19 19:00:03FORECAST2024144-14131.13626.29428.715109.457816081030.5437010811.0437010814.255.293701081TF-0.864-18.86452386.5285865914442.3085749411860.34987899279977162114128WETL
2024-02-19 15:00:03FORECAST2024144-14131.92826.56429.246109.574880781460.5692916461.0892916464.255.339291646TF-0.071999999999999-18.07252386.5914273415342.3607095620810.38586256872469162114128WETL
2024-02-19 11:00:02FORECAST2024144-14131.67626.67229.174110.178006301290.6295278991.2195278994.255.469527899TF-0.324-18.32452386.9148913202942.6295113339480.37428926442609162114128WETL
2024-02-19 07:00:06FORECAST2024144-14131.04626.70828.877110.181855089030.7169295211.1569295214.255.406929521TF-0.954-17.95452386.9169538839342.6312277443280.34586709160085162114128WETL
2024-02-19 03:00:06FORECAST2024144-1413227.8629.93109.97578336320.7259846441.1159846444.255.365984644TF0-1652386.8064917705942.5393469424410.38918847808995162114128WETL
2024-02-18 23:00:02FORECAST2024144-14130.77625.48428.13109.54241728650.4618112730.9418112733.964.901811273TF-1.224-19.22452386.5740026935942.3462507151720.33393628523107162113126WETL
2024-02-18 19:00:01FORECAST2024144-14131.44227.0529.246109.401909404440.4019687210.9219687213.964.881968721TF-0.558-18.55852386.4985690941542.2836814409850.36364284253597162113126WETL
2024-02-18 15:00:03FORECAST2024144-14132.16227.44629.804109.757749338550.4598427681.0198427683.964.979842768TF0.162-17.83852386.6895544526342.4421751894450.39670116870795162114128WETL
2024-02-18 11:00:03FORECAST2024144-14131.69426.13228.913110.660871901270.4818900241.0018900243.964.961890024TF-0.306-20.30652387.1735014237642.8449572446220.37511232279217162114128WETL
2024-02-18 07:00:06FORECAST2024144-14132.43227.66230.047110.228071798930.425197080.965197083.964.92519708TF0.432-16.56852386.9417198235442.6518396747110.40930661675579162113126WETL
2024-02-18 03:00:06FORECAST2024144-14131.94626.90629.426110.238988822660.4102364420.8902364423.964.850236442TF-0.053999999999998-19.05452386.9475694552742.6567087841340.38669327067863162113126WETL
2024-02-17 23:00:02FORECAST2024144-14133.72828.47231.1116.683060738110.4716537980.9116537984.084.991653798TF1.728-12.27252390.3723222052145.5498373823490.47089823148056162113126WETL
2024-02-17 19:00:03FORECAST2024144-14132.88228.11230.497117.490435193060.5330711541.0330711544.135.163071154TF0.882-15.11852390.7974695909245.9149647745830.43051929014194162114128WETL
2024-02-17 15:00:04FORECAST2024144-14131.8226.40229.111116.93418302140.3590553120.8890553124.145.029055312TF-0.18-18.1852390.5046516512245.6633424068930.38088946300422162113126WETL
2024-02-17 11:00:03FORECAST2024144-14132.50426.63629.57115.820030956060.1484252770.6284252774.084.708425277TF0.504-16.49652389.9169027070345.160187741820.41268454932233162113126WETL
2024-02-17 07:00:07FORECAST2024144-14132.1827.33829.759114.986730226150.1629922140.5629922144.074.632992214TF0.18-14.8252389.4762228379644.7845973649680.39753833962374162113126WETL
2024-02-17 03:00:08FORECAST2024144-14132.07226.0629.066115.660959274440.2314961880.6514961884.084.731496188TF0.072000000000003-16.92852389.8328518066945.0884415966540.39252252367542162113126WETL
2024-02-16 23:00:03FORECAST2024144-14132.34226.72629.534117.613601436990.4704726950.9704726954.085.050472695TF0.342-12.65852390.8622498809745.9707168742640.40509367821355162113126WETL
2024-02-16 19:00:03FORECAST2024144-14130.9225.08828.004116.931675829830.370078940.790078944.074.86007894TF-1.08-15.0852390.5033308981545.6622088990530.34027944994945162113126WETL
2024-02-16 15:00:04FORECAST2024144-14134.46627.30230.884116.057667928840.1464567720.5564567724.214.766456772TF2.466-8.53452390.0424029903845.2674116844260.50638342545754163113127.5WETL
2024-02-16 11:00:04FORECAST2024144-14134.91628.77831.847114.618437531420.0122047310.2622047314.184.442204731TF2.916-5.08452389.2811587900244.6187981809340.52801388244317163112125WETL
2024-02-16 07:00:09FORECAST2024144-14135.70829.9332.819113.476116880750.0279527710.1379527714.084.217952771TF3.708-3.29252388.67497338344.105326708230.56584483696119163112125WETL
2024-02-16 03:00:07FORECAST2024144-14135.40228.6732.036113.615503914230.0263779670.1463779674.064.206377967TF3.402-4.59852388.7490349414444.1679175010440.55128041512062163112125WETL
2024-02-15 23:00:06FORECAST2024144-14134.23228.07631.154110.1329594482200.254.194.44TF2.232-4.76852386.8907492325742.6094231961210.49512413106308162112124WETL
2024-02-15 19:00:03FORECAST2024144-14134.19629.01231.604110.1898311823100.214.224.43TF2.196-6.80452386.9212282045942.6347848167170.49339205212543162112124WETL
2024-02-15 15:00:05FORECAST2024144-14134.57427.33830.956110.5606404581100.174.354.52TF2.574-6.42652387.1198461845642.800218128210.51157885092237163112125WETL
2024-02-15 11:00:04FORECAST2024144-14130.05625.05227.554112.7536880040300.154.344.49TF-1.944-14.94452388.2906994149143.7812083766970.30295645486876162112124WETL
2024-02-15 07:00:08FORECAST2024144-14131.17226.54628.859113.3616981501600.424.274.69TF-0.828-13.82852388.61415882144.0539609691450.35148848584037162112124WETL
2024-02-15 03:00:08FORECAST2024144-14131.89226.67229.282113.4860348657100.414.294.7TF-0.108-15.10852388.6802440469144.1097797275220.38420273711337162112124WETL
2024-02-14 23:00:04FORECAST2024144-14133.47626.85230.164112.1879132950200.124.444.56TF1.476-18.52452387.9892601041743.5277054719650.45881995742843162112124WETL
2024-02-14 19:00:04FORECAST2024144-14134.2526.4230.335112.4043599396200.084.554.63TF2.25-15.7552388.1046319543243.6246527444290.49599020704465162111122WETL
2024-02-14 15:00:04FORECAST2024144-14135.36626.47430.92112.6038186147800.224.524.74TF3.366-6.63452388.2108926205543.7140289369280.54956201017808163112125WETL
2024-02-14 11:00:05FORECAST2024144-14133.13426.61829.876115.6440619043300.264.765.02TF1.134-10.86652389.8239215145245.0808217114130.44249072347253162112124WETL
2024-02-14 07:00:06FORECAST2024144-14134.55627.01430.785115.403094785100.274.795.06TF2.556-10.44452389.6965282197944.9721853835710.51071305929176163112125WETL
2024-02-14 03:00:09FORECAST2024144-14139.25426.11432.684114.44245016754004.844.84TF7.254-4.74652389.1878836732244.5396149830830.7235828501047164111123WETL
2024-02-13 23:00:04FORECAST2024144-14138.13827.64432.891111.77589528512004.584.58TF6.138-14.86252387.7694681217743.3432794635450.67684798821387163111122.5WETL
2024-02-13 19:00:04FORECAST2024144-14138.53428.02233.278112.22761114277004.694.69TF6.534-14.46652388.0104248687743.5454830815130.69380629562559163111122.5WETL
2024-02-13 15:00:04FORECAST2024144-14137.07629.60633.341112.3064111022600.084.634.71TF5.076-10.92452388.0524304615343.5807757846450.62960479514455163111122.5WETL
2024-02-13 11:00:05FORECAST2024144-14136.69830.14633.422113.868135314500.045.045.08TF4.698-9.30252388.8832006678344.2814049151810.61225992190328163111122.5WETL
2024-02-13 07:00:08FORECAST2024144-14135.4229.17432.297116.0638822596500.075.415.48TF3.42-14.5852390.0456838719945.2702163288020.55213925904245163111122.5WETL
2024-02-13 03:00:09FORECAST2024144-14134.48428.83231.658114.7315711259005.255.25TF2.484-10.51652389.3410987478944.6697159632310.50724942871734163111122.5WETL
2024-02-12 23:00:04FORECAST2024144-14131.51426.0628.787108.372916030020.2196851580.2596851584.014.269685158TF-0.486-21.48652385.9453185030441.8260195943090.36690790846815162112124WETL
2024-02-12 19:00:04FORECAST2024144-14131.74824.31428.031108.05418975104004.384.38TF-0.252-18.25252385.7736579888241.6844600412760.3775848969679162111122WETL
2024-02-12 15:00:04FORECAST2024144-14129.8421.30825.574113.242798608670.4708663960.8608663964.084.940866396TF-2.16-21.1652388.5509439398644.000596293790.29391928783642162113126WETL
2024-02-12 11:00:04FORECAST2024144-14134.91623.37829.147112.274557141690.1236221140.5836221144.224.803622114TF2.916-21.08452388.0354512050943.5665084393260.52801388244317163113127.5WETL
2024-02-12 07:00:09FORECAST2024144-14132.25223.1827.716115.490659015140.1173228980.5773228984.95.477322898TF0.252-22.74852389.7428302593245.0116563130740.40089170721237162113126WETL
2024-02-12 03:00:09FORECAST2024144-14133.42221.14627.284118.3606483495500.665.195.85TF1.422-33.57852391.2547313530846.3091636727790.45623631118752162113126WETL
2024-02-11 23:00:04FORECAST2024144-14124.6922323.846122.7904682668400.665.576.23TF-7.308-33.30852393.5668188239848.3262539776860.12237209243806161113124.5WETL
2024-02-11 19:00:05FORECAST2024144-14126.7821.95624.368117.7561466128500.494.915.4TF-5.22-27.2252390.9371973827746.0352579314220.18110867615108161112123WETL
2024-02-11 15:00:03FORECAST2024144-14126.74423.5425.142112.5283545562900.034.34.33TF-5.256-32.25652388.1706958309443.6802096888270.17996654639881161111121.5WETL
2024-02-11 11:00:05FORECAST2024144-14128.11225.35826.735114.5807789303700.274.24.47TF-3.888-31.88852389.2612028495944.6018518298770.2264990368816161112123WETL
2024-02-11 07:00:08FORECAST2024144-14125.8825.05225.466112.1712581476700.273.713.98TF-6.12-41.1252387.9803798368143.5202473429050.15391788442647161112123DRYL
2024-02-11 03:00:09FORECAST2024144-14124.06223.88223.972113.3392751479100.273.874.14TF-7.938-48.93852388.6022387266544.0438960581350.1076165062418161112123WETL