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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, February 20, 2024

[ Monday, February 19, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, February 21, 2024 ]

DAY 143 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/21/2024 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.77°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.55°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.16°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.449
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -13

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.57 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.77 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.02 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 107 in
SWE DAY: 51
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 384.13 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 40.91 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -142

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-21 07:00:05OBSERVATION2024143-14233.7699430.5499232.15993106.50569250.570000000000051.25000000000013.775.02TF1.76994-13.2300651384.12688697908 40.9117001055760.4493817280586716 2114128WETL
2024-02-21 03:00:04OBSERVATION2024143-14233.7699430.5499232.15993106.50569250.570000000000051.25000000000013.775.02TF1.76994-13.2300651384.12688697908 40.9117001055760.4493817280586716 2114128WETL
2024-02-20 11:00:02FORECAST2024143-14232.77426.70829.741107.163370493930.3578742091.0378742093.774.807874209TF0.774-14.22651384.4836973051141.2025689031810.40331527409759162114128WETL
2024-02-20 07:00:06FORECAST2024143-14232.46827.30229.885106.502207503020.2681103810.9481103813.774.718110381TF0.468-14.53251384.1249946741240.910159889880.38939636251504162113126WETL
2024-02-20 03:00:06FORECAST2024143-14233.72827.84230.785106.512186783690.279527710.959527713.774.72952771TF1.728-13.27251384.1304132402340.9145703243380.44742342435272162113126WETL
2024-02-19 23:00:02FORECAST2024143-14233.87227.98630.929107.460439301240.4385829141.0285829143.774.798582914TF1.872-20.12851384.644670855141.3340853049690.45415227314194162114128WETL
2024-02-19 19:00:02FORECAST2024143-14233.4427.3230.38107.464493098270.4354333061.0254333063.774.795433306TF1.44-20.5651384.646866658141.335880547250.43401292087265162114128WETL
2024-02-19 15:00:02FORECAST2024143-14233.13427.48230.308107.534128834950.4586616651.0486616653.774.818661665TF1.134-20.86651384.6845824216841.3667214469510.41984734968769162114128WETL
2024-02-19 11:00:02FORECAST2024143-14233.13427.98630.56107.892372368810.527559341.117559343.774.88755934TF1.134-20.86651384.8785071119841.5254552060790.41984734968769162114128WETL
2024-02-19 07:00:05FORECAST2024143-14232.77426.7829.777107.529640359280.3657482290.9657482293.774.735748229TF0.774-20.22651384.682151596841.3647334138380.40331527409759162113126WETL
2024-02-19 03:00:06FORECAST2024143-14233.49428.70631.1107.34809687140.3925198970.9225198973.774.692519897TF1.494-18.50651384.5838098126741.2843400709440.43652209105221162113126WETL
2024-02-18 23:00:02FORECAST2024143-14232.77427.87830.326107.681101194690.4594490670.7194490673.774.489449067TF0.774-21.22651384.7641629702241.4318287688870.40331527409759162113126WETL
2024-02-18 19:00:01FORECAST2024143-14233.06228.05830.56107.790950184880.4771656120.7571656123.774.527165612TF1.062-20.93851384.823623076141.4805039849610.41652860292181162113126WETL
2024-02-18 15:00:02FORECAST2024143-14233.33228.27430.803107.954539741740.4984254660.7984254663.774.568425466TF1.332-20.66851384.9121416423241.5530130920050.42900264660008162113126WETL
2024-02-18 11:00:03FORECAST2024143-14232.88227.46430.173108.716336092320.5102364960.7602364963.774.530236496TF0.882-23.11851385.3238667454641.8909990014930.40825821515134162113126WETL
2024-02-18 07:00:06FORECAST2024143-14234.2527.6830.965108.602561990750.5228349280.7828349283.774.552834928TF2.25-19.7551385.2624262953841.840486534450.4718732646262162113126WETL
2024-02-18 03:00:06FORECAST2024143-14233.04427.24830.146108.591657934110.4771656120.7171656123.774.487165612TF1.044-21.95651385.2565369389741.8356460761570.41569983517854162113126WETL
2024-02-17 23:00:02FORECAST2024143-14234.5228.56231.541114.784026134280.3842521760.7742521763.84.574252176TF2.52-17.4851388.5749586496144.6021982087640.48456737214543162113126WETL
2024-02-17 19:00:03FORECAST2024143-14233.99827.03230.515115.283506793040.4547246550.8847246553.84.684724655TF1.998-19.00251388.8403569373944.8268799304010.46005089678337162113126WETL
2024-02-17 15:00:03FORECAST2024143-14233.04426.88829.966115.436877414580.4535435520.9235435523.84.723543552TF1.044-20.95651388.92178263944.8959161463590.41569983517854162113126WETL
2024-02-17 11:00:02FORECAST2024143-14232.82827.1429.984115.195576082720.3440946740.8140946743.84.614094674TF0.828-20.17251388.7936595049944.7873095839860.40578486734339162113126WETL
2024-02-17 07:00:07FORECAST2024143-14234.75427.71631.235114.313371798320.2279528790.7179528793.84.517952879TF2.754-18.24651388.3245688783244.3906908206070.49558206359311162113126WETL
2024-02-17 03:00:08FORECAST2024143-14234.01626.16830.092114.610144323780.23622060.77622063.774.5462206TF2.016-19.98451388.4824877751644.5240339911730.4608943062422162113126WETL
2024-02-16 23:00:02FORECAST2024143-14232.46827.17629.822115.432796314040.2748032980.8648032983.774.634803298TF0.468-15.53251388.9196163605344.8940788578790.38939636251504162113126WETL
2024-02-16 19:00:02FORECAST2024143-14231.62226.79829.21115.164497190230.2417324140.7617324143.784.541732414TF-0.378-17.37851388.7771519180244.773325219690.35169522096048162113126WETL
2024-02-16 15:00:04FORECAST2024143-14234.23228.45431.343115.526214961420.2531497430.7531497433.924.673149743TF2.232-13.76851388.9691980463644.9361391868730.47102786276193162113126WETL
2024-02-16 11:00:03FORECAST2024143-14236.75228.8532.801114.624912309320.1232284130.5832284133.94.483228413TF4.752-11.24851388.490343021844.5306715018890.58891347767056163113127.5WETL
2024-02-16 07:00:08FORECAST2024143-14237.14829.76833.458113.449732449160.082677210.402677213.844.24267721TF5.148-9.85251387.864330387344.0031045090130.60699337434202163112125WETL
2024-02-16 03:00:07FORECAST2024143-14237.23828.63432.936113.580755446090.1106299810.4606299813.774.230629981TF5.238-10.76251387.9342182947144.0618615773020.61107196401656163112125WETL
2024-02-15 23:00:05FORECAST2024143-14238.82229.46234.142110.197706648220.1582678020.5782678023.914.488267802TF6.822-10.17851386.1222200517642.5497831356230.68049320165952163113127.5WETL
2024-02-15 19:00:03FORECAST2024143-14238.35428.83233.593110.252511982310.1637796160.5737796163.914.483779616TF6.354-11.64651386.1516986419742.5741947815140.66050367207429163113127.5WETL
2024-02-15 15:00:04FORECAST2024143-14237.54427.6832.612110.628241258110.1066929710.4866929714.084.566692971TF5.544-12.45651386.3536847349242.7416286458150.62484539857882163112125WETL
2024-02-15 11:00:04FORECAST2024143-14235.58227.42831.505112.753688004030.0940945390.4440945394.14.544094539TF3.582-16.41851387.4926687747743.6912274788810.53452712623084163112125WETL
2024-02-15 07:00:08FORECAST2024143-14235.88827.30231.595113.361698150160.2484253310.6384253314.14.738425331TF3.888-16.11251387.8173596649343.963634463730.54885632334311163113127.5WETL
2024-02-15 03:00:07FORECAST2024143-14233.6226.45630.038113.486034865710.2484253310.6184253314.134.748425331TF1.62-18.3851387.8836964924444.0193827039840.44238659157191162113126WETL
2024-02-14 23:00:03FORECAST2024143-14234.23227.98631.109112.2248132950200.424.194.61TF2.232-22.76851387.2098298878243.4545508651570.47102786276193162112124WETL
2024-02-14 19:00:04FORECAST2024143-14234.32227.44630.884112.4611367396200.434.254.68TF2.322-20.67851387.3362611460543.5602762289610.47525610152672162112124WETL
2024-02-14 15:00:04FORECAST2024143-14237.07627.19432.135112.7209146147800.484.314.79TF5.076-12.92451387.4751528118543.6765536154540.60372200318673163112125WETL
2024-02-14 11:00:05FORECAST2024143-14235.2427.71631.478115.6656115043300.514.565.07TF3.24-14.7651389.0431604997544.9989150607810.51845985852775163113127.5WETL
2024-02-14 07:00:06FORECAST2024143-14236.48227.75232.117115.471876385100.534.585.11TF4.482-15.51851388.9403594303444.9116731053150.5764745445301163113127.5WETL
2024-02-14 03:00:09FORECAST2024143-14236.0527.3231.685114.7424717675400.354.544.89TF4.05-14.9551388.5528636249644.5835159846830.55641787106585163112125WETL
2024-02-13 23:00:04FORECAST2024143-14236.73426.07831.406112.0550560851200.294.344.63TF4.734-24.26651387.1189642137543.3786372465860.58808684439456163112125WETL
2024-02-13 19:00:04FORECAST2024143-14236.42827.89632.162112.5324543427700.324.424.74TF4.428-23.57251387.3744006204843.5921920513810.57397716590736163112125WETL
2024-02-13 15:00:04FORECAST2024143-14237.14828.432.774112.5715007022600.524.244.76TF5.148-18.85251387.3952790410543.6096679266220.60699337434202163113127.5WETL
2024-02-13 11:00:04FORECAST2024143-14236.24826.56431.406114.090814514500.464.675.13TF4.248-16.75251388.2060633378444.2907459656830.56563167154992163112125WETL
2024-02-13 07:00:08FORECAST2024143-14234.95224.72829.84116.2000678596500.445.095.53TF2.952-21.04851389.326495297745.2397651731510.50490515536381163112125WETL
2024-02-13 03:00:08FORECAST2024143-14234.71822.94628.832114.810487925900.15.25.3TF2.718-16.28251388.5890275304844.6140958534270.49388706603231162112124WETL
2024-02-12 23:00:04FORECAST2024143-14231.85622.6427.248106.592651813080.0377952960.2577952963.844.097795296TF-0.144-24.14451384.1740992550240.9501359974950.36199620128572162112124WETL
2024-02-12 19:00:03FORECAST2024143-14233.20622.38827.797108.0541897510400.134.34.43TF1.206-20.79451384.9660443951841.5971940087830.42317180554017162112124WETL
2024-02-12 15:00:04FORECAST2024143-14228.90423.30626.105109.109409456230.3929135980.5629135983.964.522913598TF-3.096-22.09651385.5359981912442.0656050867640.24146946912143161113124.5WETL
2024-02-12 11:00:04FORECAST2024143-14233.11624.2628.688111.578452325420.279527710.779527713.954.72952771TF1.116-26.88451386.8636437561543.1656466312820.41901711878941162113126WETL
2024-02-12 07:00:09FORECAST2024143-14230.45223.9927.221114.670248100410.2688977830.7488977834.665.408897783TF-1.548-25.54851388.5144557646944.5510490331320.30193303295191162113126WETL
2024-02-12 03:00:09FORECAST2024143-14229.53422.24425.889118.389085949550.240157611.140157614.765.90015761TF-2.466-38.46651390.4829680470246.2289216659530.2652602612334162114128WETL
2024-02-11 23:00:04FORECAST2024143-14230.36225.21427.788122.790468266840.3161419031.1261419035.156.276141903TT-1.638-28.63851392.7888755794748.2307299624080.29823887627077162114128WETL
2024-02-11 19:00:05FORECAST2024143-14231.2824.87228.076117.756146612850.2350394970.9150394974.535.445039497TF-0.72-24.7251390.1492425668545.9424714085930.33683548868843162113126WETL
2024-02-11 15:00:03FORECAST2024143-14234.3426.07830.209112.528354556290.0255905650.1055905654.274.375590565TF2.34-29.6651387.3722083096543.5903572019230.47610209911125162112124WETL
2024-02-11 11:00:05FORECAST2024143-14235.81625.6130.713114.580778930370.0500000270.4200000274.14.520000027TF3.816-31.18451388.4668671384144.5108362253590.54548976930525163112125WETL
2024-02-11 07:00:08FORECAST2024143-14233.47624.63829.057112.171258147670.1326772370.4026772373.634.032677237TF1.476-37.52451387.1811677389243.4305987163590.43568541202672162112124WETL
2024-02-11 03:00:08FORECAST2024143-14233.76423.46828.616113.339275147910.2181103540.3481103543.844.188110354TF1.764-44.23651387.8053941880643.9535822757250.44910429566139162112124WETL
2024-02-10 23:00:04FORECAST2024143-14232.25224.99828.625108.84028788420.055118140.055118143.363.41511814FF0.252-42.74851385.3907831602741.946043787080.37965482772437162111122DRYL
2024-02-10 19:00:06FORECAST2024143-14231.76629.0330.398110.067181633790.0452756150.0552756153.533.585275615FF-0.234-37.23451386.0519969753942.4916552711770.3580219683409162111122DRYL
2024-02-10 15:00:05FORECAST2024143-14231.33428.34629.84109.488133198890.0452756150.0852756153.373.455275615FF-0.666-39.66651385.7401852812742.2339727862420.3391656302842162111122DRYL
2024-02-10 11:00:05FORECAST2024143-14230.95628.88629.921107.589366213890.0980315490.1580315492.863.018031549FF-1.044-47.04451384.7144950736941.3911886982750.32298839952765162112124DRYL
2024-02-10 07:00:17FORECAST2024143-14231.08230.61430.848114.3443406889004.254.25TF-0.918-21.91851388.3410536391944.4046017408040.32834562508061162111122WETL
2024-02-10 03:00:09FORECAST2024143-14231.06430.59630.83113.6538785646400.014.084.09TF-0.936-25.93651387.9732121893544.0946603445010.32757811113745162111122WETL