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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 22, 2024

[ Wednesday, February 21, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, February 23, 2024 ]

DAY 145 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/21/2024 11:00:03 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.04°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.42°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.73°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.593
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -12

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.48 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.39 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.87 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 110 in
SWE DAY: 53
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 387.59 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 42.61 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -140

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-21 11:00:03FORECAST2024145-14035.04224.42229.732109.9395315380301.484.395.87TF3.042-11.95853387.5877603525242.611216803030.592796752443881631141210WETL
2024-02-21 07:00:06FORECAST2024145-14034.59224.15229.372109.803848880101.574.395.96TT2.592-12.40853387.515267123342.5506678299370.570990568363511631151212.5WETL
2024-02-21 03:00:04FORECAST2024145-14033.94423.61228.778109.3581065893701.434.395.82TF1.944-12.05653387.2769377053842.3518726331910.5392223608381631141210WETL
2024-02-20 23:00:03FORECAST2024145-14033.74624.22428.985109.0150507180601.224.395.61TF1.746-13.25453387.0933288075942.198998872580.529455608783171631141210WETL
2024-02-20 19:00:02FORECAST2024145-14034.57424.63829.606108.4660205775501.14.395.49TF2.574-11.42653386.7991461215941.9545641426020.570113327989791631141210WETL
2024-02-20 15:00:03FORECAST2024145-14035.94225.37630.659108.5956748284601.164.395.55TF3.942-10.05853386.8686547882242.0122626367060.635495078329531631141210WETL
2024-02-20 11:00:03FORECAST2024145-14035.56424.81830.191109.408711038901.054.395.44TF3.564-10.43653387.3040084644542.3744323462930.617732065685081631141210WETL
2024-02-20 07:00:06FORECAST2024145-14035.38424.40429.894108.7364737685700.964.395.35TF3.384-11.61653386.9441122884442.0749383157540.60918297735709163113127.5WETL
2024-02-20 03:00:07FORECAST2024145-14035.65424.9830.317108.5070952130900.894.395.28TF3.654-9.34653386.8211690349641.9728414189150.62198547863382163113127.5WETL
2024-02-19 23:00:03FORECAST2024145-14035.54624.22429.885109.0377648491600.914.35.21TF3.546-17.45453387.1054907142842.2091174683250.61687965768243163113127.5WETL
2024-02-19 19:00:04FORECAST2024145-14036.2323.23429.732109.3435736810300.984.35.28TF4.23-17.7753387.2691627091142.3453942270740.64883851005784163113127.5WETL
2024-02-19 15:00:03FORECAST2024145-14036.2323.86430.047109.4605399814601.034.35.33TF4.23-16.7753387.3317306572342.3975403896930.648838510057841631141210WETL
2024-02-19 11:00:03FORECAST2024145-14035.65423.7229.687110.0836407012901.164.35.46TF3.654-17.34653387.664728384142.6755446719980.621985478633821631141210WETL
2024-02-19 07:00:06FORECAST2024145-14035.0623.12629.093110.1179934890301.094.315.4TF3.06-17.9453387.6830718896642.6908819861530.593663519579231631141210WETL
2024-02-19 03:00:06FORECAST2024145-14036.57225.3430.956109.849142563201.124.245.36TF4.572-14.42853387.5394696435942.5708784497450.66444768666061631141210WETL
2024-02-18 23:00:03FORECAST2024145-14035.52824.7130.119109.456514086500.923.974.89TF3.528-18.47253387.3295774228542.3957453473010.61602668355592163113127.5WETL
2024-02-18 19:00:02FORECAST2024145-14035.3325.14230.236109.3277158044400.883.994.87TF3.33-18.6753387.2606785373742.338325405370.60660771938152163113127.5WETL
2024-02-18 15:00:03FORECAST2024145-14035.13225.3430.236109.6934941385500.964.014.97TF3.132-17.86853387.4562877975342.5014340344610.59712596093512163113127.5WETL
2024-02-18 11:00:04FORECAST2024145-14035.16824.36829.768110.5919919012700.993.964.95TF3.168-19.83253387.9360115242.9026162442330.59885434841129163113127.5WETL
2024-02-18 07:00:06FORECAST2024145-14036.15825.75430.956110.1247517989300.953.974.92TF4.158-15.84253387.68668046542.693899461960.64551904845424163113127.5WETL
2024-02-18 03:00:06FORECAST2024145-14035.4226.43830.929110.1528888226600.893.954.84TF3.42-18.5853387.7017034621542.7064626378210.61089716802927163113127.5WETL
2024-02-17 23:00:03FORECAST2024145-14035.5127.06831.289116.5845623381100.854.134.98TF3.51-11.4953391.1077008735345.5971201334060.61517314718521163113127.5WETL
2024-02-17 19:00:03FORECAST2024145-14035.27626.38430.83117.4122071930600.984.175.15TF3.276-14.72453391.5419667321945.9718065227370.60402779011713163113127.5WETL
2024-02-17 15:00:04FORECAST2024145-14033.67424.11628.895116.906532621400.814.215.02TF1.674-19.32653391.2767474174345.7428078359510.52589935254323163113127.5WETL
2024-02-17 11:00:03FORECAST2024145-14035.63625.10630.371115.7365877560600.494.214.7TF3.636-15.36453390.6618201464945.2138660303280.62113595915421163112125WETL
2024-02-17 07:00:08FORECAST2024145-14035.5124.87230.191114.9107654261500.394.234.62TF3.51-14.4953390.2266634481644.8412445865190.61517314718521163112125WETL
2024-02-17 03:00:09FORECAST2024145-14034.39423.28828.841115.6175648744400.474.254.72TF2.394-17.60653390.5991588183645.1601235845840.56132258318677163112125WETL
2024-02-16 23:00:03FORECAST2024145-14033.13424.38628.76117.5969718369900.744.35.04TF1.134-14.86653391.6387882892246.0555355567190.49918119227448163113127.5WETL
2024-02-16 19:00:03FORECAST2024145-14030.8322.67626.753116.9316758298300.614.244.85TF-1.17-19.1753391.289942731745.7541887389770.38667451655783162113126WETL
2024-02-16 15:00:04FORECAST2024145-14034.1624.99829.579116.0186031288400.44.364.76TF2.16-9.8453390.8102156463545.3412553077710.54984987864961163112125WETL
2024-02-16 11:00:04FORECAST2024145-14034.3426.61830.479114.5680567314200.134.34.43TF2.34-5.6653390.0458092410144.6867904009770.55867924537462163112125WETL
2024-02-16 07:00:09FORECAST2024145-14034.80827.64431.226113.4080240807500.114.14.21TF2.808-3.19253389.4324672583544.1647666246590.58148890937501163112125WETL
2024-02-16 03:00:07FORECAST2024145-14035.07827.42831.253113.5402279142300.144.064.2TF3.078-4.92253389.5024584319944.2241979035230.59452982806826163112125WETL
2024-02-15 23:00:06FORECAST2024145-14033.5326.97830.254110.0992082482200.164.274.43TF1.53-6.4753387.6730412522942.6824949010560.51878092806247163112125WETL
2024-02-15 19:00:03FORECAST2024145-14033.5328.41830.974110.1543087823100.164.264.42TF1.53-8.4753387.7024615824642.7070966688170.51878092806247163112125WETL
2024-02-15 15:00:05FORECAST2024145-14034.08826.65430.371110.5184268581100.114.44.51TF2.088-6.91253387.8967749892642.8697413551480.54631096052527163112125WETL
2024-02-15 11:00:04FORECAST2024145-14034.28623.93629.111112.6947464040300.094.394.48TF2.286-15.71453389.0544390170343.8443913423880.55603329135666163111122.5WETL
2024-02-15 07:00:09FORECAST2024145-14035.63624.60230.119113.2512933501600.254.434.68TF3.636-13.36453389.3494606346244.0943299820590.62113595915421163112125WETL
2024-02-15 03:00:08FORECAST2024145-14035.88825.35830.623113.3669708657100.254.444.69TF3.888-14.11253389.4107281383244.1463146716540.63297423029076163112125WETL
2024-02-14 23:00:04FORECAST2024145-14035.13226.99631.064112.098172495020.0452756150.0452756154.554.595275615TF3.132-18.86853388.7377359236443.5767897768910.59712596093512163111122.5WETL
2024-02-14 19:00:05FORECAST2024145-14035.38426.70831.046112.543339208280.0460630170.0460630174.624.666063017TF3.384-15.61653388.9741069405343.7764448606460.60918297735709163111122.5WETL
2024-02-14 15:00:05FORECAST2024145-14032.95426.629.777114.166032245330.2531497430.2531497434.734.983149743TF0.954-9.04653389.8334521515544.5057384686440.49027002978049162112124WETL
2024-02-14 11:00:06FORECAST2024145-14029.22824.3526.789120.718507292180.7000003780.7000003785.015.710000378TF-2.772-16.77253393.2677054389747.4746903668130.31319215211967162113126WETL
2024-02-14 07:00:07FORECAST2024145-14030.84823.28827.068120.506157950920.7090555010.7090555015.055.759055501TF-1.152-14.15253393.157303694447.3778761385570.3875298053891162113126WETL
2024-02-14 03:00:09FORECAST2024145-14037.09428.23832.666118.12237353880.6232286830.6232286834.835.453228683TF5.094-2.90653391.913864479846.2937958951160.6877275626312163113127.5WETL
2024-02-13 23:00:05FORECAST2024145-14038.0328.56233.296111.53698008512004.574.57TF6.03-11.9753388.4393774311843.3253551048180.72760769312583164111123WETL
2024-02-13 19:00:04FORECAST2024145-14038.01228.95833.485111.98771194277004.684.68TF6.012-10.98853388.6790430751443.5272767140890.72686520664999164111123WETL
2024-02-13 15:00:04FORECAST2024145-14040.129.13834.619117.452660598490.7948823190.7948823194.75.494882319TF8.1-5.953391.5631692712445.9901360232840.80581102288912164113129WETL
2024-02-13 11:00:05FORECAST2024145-14037.56229.37233.467120.346687565580.9712603670.9712603675.076.041260367TF5.562-6.43853393.0743548885847.3051965778190.70798426065887164113129WETL
2024-02-13 07:00:08FORECAST2024145-14038.53429.0333.782120.535541219250.6712602050.6712602055.476.141260205TF6.534-11.46653393.1725837885347.391270179520.74798202182188164113129WETL
2024-02-13 03:00:09FORECAST2024145-14037.27428.95833.116114.838159950710.0527559340.0527559345.245.292755934TF5.274-8.72653390.1883612342644.8085134383240.69559049265158163111122.5WETL
2024-02-12 23:00:05FORECAST2024145-14029.53425.68227.608108.3729160300200.2644.26TF-2.466-26.46653386.7492179164941.9131405179390.32677223586324162112124WETL
2024-02-12 19:00:04FORECAST2024145-14025.10620.78622.946108.05418975104004.374.37TF-6.894-27.89453386.578208474441.7713950921090.15900642108038161111121.5WETL
2024-02-12 15:00:04FORECAST2024145-14023.48619.20221.344113.415214321820.0145669370.8745669374.074.944566937TF-8.514-32.51453389.436274510444.1679985382890.11510554010629161113124.5WETL
2024-02-12 11:00:04FORECAST2024145-14022.98221.68622.334112.2745571416900.44.394.79TF-9.018-33.01853388.8314231859243.6558758409710.10339162013924161112123WETL
2024-02-12 07:00:10FORECAST2024145-14025.26822.94624.107115.4906590151400.395.085.47TF-6.732-32.73253390.5323265114345.102835755520.16393089437563161112123WETL
2024-02-12 03:00:09FORECAST2024145-14026.13225.82625.979118.3606483495500.245.65.84TF-5.868-42.86853392.0384932831446.4019302429730.19183904026765161112123WETL