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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 25, 2023

[ Saturday, June 24, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, June 26, 2023 ]

DAY 268 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/26/2023 04:00:15 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 62.98°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.59°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 54.28°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.738
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 31
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 354

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.12 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.94 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.06 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 14 in
SWE DAY: 175
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 429.22 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.12 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -17

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-26 04:00:15OBSERVATION2023268-1762.9799845.5954.2849914.26446681818200.121.942.06FF30.97998353.97998175429.21923800045 6.12258357818260.7378604744010716 41222214DRYL
2023-06-26 00:00:02FORECAST2023268-1657.61440.53249.07313.77763600.121.942.06FF25.614348.614176429.651088902355.91957630990020.553547294843811631222212DRYL
2023-06-25 12:00:02FORECAST2023268-1656.51639.16447.8415.92523600.121.942.06FF24.516347.516176430.566371900456.85687108617850.512717954712551631222212DRYL
2023-06-25 08:00:01FORECAST2023268-1656.339.86648.08315.918052800.121.942.06FF24.3347.3176430.563318815676.85372964265110.504656596626721631222212DRYL
2023-06-25 04:00:08FORECAST2023268-1656.64239.39848.0215.80663180952400.121.942.06FF24.642347.642176430.515954274036.80500717733540.517418226195641631222212DRYL
2023-06-25 00:00:07FORECAST2023268-1758.3739.34448.85714.9754400.121.942.06FF26.37344.37175429.523578962446.43230458533730.581358739548011631222212DRYL
2023-06-24 20:00:01FORECAST2023268-1757.79439.59648.69518.764745600.121.942.06FF25.794343.794175431.136400417118.09016487272680.560198325084891631222212DRYL
2023-06-24 16:00:01FORECAST2023268-1758.9140.38849.64918.635152800.121.942.06FF26.91344.91175431.08149852278.03326959422350.600986257414371631222212DRYL
2023-06-24 12:00:03FORECAST2023268-1759.82840.71250.2716.762108800.121.942.06FF27.828345.828175430.285963312277.21250013215310.633750145461621631222212DRYL
2023-06-24 08:00:04FORECAST2023268-1758.40641.86450.13516.760632800.121.942.06FF26.406344.406175430.285334919377.21185449780850.582674141318011631222212DRYL
2023-06-24 04:00:10FORECAST2023268-1757.95642.27850.11716.47966190476200.121.942.06FF25.956343.956175430.165671324567.08898482646370.566169816528751631222212DRYL
2023-06-24 00:00:05FORECAST2023268-1756.7542.1749.4614.68035840.035433090.165433091.942.10543309FF24.75336.75175429.397332306316.30370673426050.521445129148311631222212DRYL
2023-06-23 20:00:02FORECAST2023268-1756.51641.84649.18118.71290880.059055150.139055151.942.07905515FF24.516336.516175431.11444196358.0674052348260.512717954712551631222212DRYL
2023-06-23 16:00:02FORECAST2023268-1757.1141.93649.52318.66361040.086614220.166614221.942.10661422FF25.11337.11175431.093556112568.04576217723530.534850037341171631222212DRYL
2023-06-23 12:00:05FORECAST2023268-1756.44440.24448.34417.13368720.055118140.165118141.942.10511814FF24.444335.444175430.444084341657.37509429820020.510031249943881631222212DRYL
2023-06-23 08:00:04FORECAST2023268-1757.48841.05449.27116.92744080.03937010.36937011.942.3093701FF25.488337.488175430.356336923127.28483141617090.548882480174751631222212DRYL
2023-06-23 04:00:20FORECAST2023268-1756.80441.91849.36117.1027248545450.070866180.150866181.942.09086618FF24.804335.804175430.430914360897.36154149720470.523457785734651631222212DRYL
2023-06-23 00:00:05FORECAST2023268-1759.37841.59450.48614.518215200.091.891.98FF27.378339.378175429.327921247196.23307515203540.61779455092876163121226DRYL
2023-06-22 20:00:04FORECAST2023268-1758.92841.9950.45918.48700240.011811030.131811031.882.01181103FF26.928338.928175431.018712571797.96824397375960.601636425151711631222212DRYL
2023-06-22 16:00:03FORECAST2023268-1758.58640.71249.64918.70180960.007874020.077874021.881.95787402FF26.586338.586175431.109739884118.06253227201810.58923699851805163121226DRYL
2023-06-22 12:00:03FORECAST2023268-1759.12641.10850.11716.6394440.015748040.065748041.881.94574804FF27.126340.126175430.233731906457.15885008896840.60876928448408163121226DRYL
2023-06-22 08:00:05FORECAST2023268-1758.06441.46849.76616.6059880.007874020.057874021.881.93787402FF26.064338.064175430.219483316687.1442195773230.57014252471244163121226DRYL
2023-06-22 04:00:15FORECAST2023268-1755.56240.60448.08317.17577252631600.021.881.9FF23.562331.562175430.461983874547.39351711625570.47711928595497162121225DRYL
2023-06-22 00:00:05FORECAST2023268-1757.79441.48649.6416.350797600.051.881.93FF25.794335.794175430.110760320627.03265398758450.56019832508489163121226DRYL
2023-06-21 20:00:05FORECAST2023268-1758.60442.40450.50418.103951200.071.871.94FF26.604340.604175430.856266401997.80020082115580.58989194473259163121226DRYL
2023-06-21 16:00:05FORECAST2023268-1759.25241.28850.2718.351230400.051.851.9FF27.252340.252175430.96115181957.9086673904890.61328957427956163121226DRYL
2023-06-21 12:00:04FORECAST2023268-1757.41639.8348.62317.780707200.071.861.93FF25.416336.416175430.719060537027.65848950086780.54621379545628163121226DRYL
2023-06-21 08:00:06FORECAST2023268-1757.12839.88448.50617.81042400.081.861.94FF25.128336.128175430.731678990447.67151383305170.53551937287463163121226DRYL
2023-06-21 04:00:11FORECAST2023268-1757.54240.5549.04617.62257741666700.061.881.94FF25.542338.542175430.651898884437.58919642772530.55088255152041163121226DRYL
2023-06-21 00:00:06FORECAST2023268-1759.05441.1850.11716.296441600.081.661.74FF27.054350.054175430.087593027517.00889734265740.60617960859192163121226DRYL
2023-06-20 20:00:06FORECAST2023268-1758.7341.5450.13516.519809600.091.721.81FF26.73346.73175430.18277518517.10653753925750.59446945269722163121226DRYL
2023-06-20 16:00:06FORECAST2023268-1758.08241.2749.67616.989571200.061.721.78FF26.082342.082175430.382775106147.31201880091940.57080396418982163121226DRYL
2023-06-20 12:00:07FORECAST2023268-1758.60441.25249.92816.20918323444600.011.731.74FF26.604345.604175430.050395593186.97076566221590.58989194473259163121226DRYL
2023-06-20 08:00:05FORECAST2023268-1759.86440.94650.40515.92599174435500.061.721.78FF27.864349.864175429.929616867796.84705552889020.63501707695797163121226DRYL
2023-06-20 04:00:18FORECAST2023268-1759.19842.72850.96316.786737102068001.71.7FF27.198341.198175430.29644822917.22327335237550.61135414874874163121226DRYL
2023-06-20 00:00:07FORECAST2023268-1760.06243.91651.98916.102676155978001.421.42FF28.062341.062175430.004981436256.92423096152510.64195855717912163121226DRYL
2023-06-19 20:00:06FORECAST2023268-1761.57444.43853.00615.5787645751220.055118140.055118141.351.40511814FF29.574343.574175429.7814088646.69546338745650.69328642328352163121226DRYL
2023-06-19 16:00:08FORECAST2023268-1761.6145.12253.36615.584618767942001.441.44FF29.61346.61175429.783908709996.69801836984120.69446838621948163121226DRYL
2023-06-19 12:00:05FORECAST2023268-1758.6440.62249.63116.6920826960300.121.421.54FF26.64338.64175430.256147771547.18187119907780.591201083565111631222212DRYL
2023-06-19 08:00:07FORECAST2023268-1758.60440.89249.74817.01027375562200.171.351.52FF26.604333.604175430.39158368267.32107866055680.589891944732591631222212DRYL
2023-06-19 04:00:19FORECAST2023268-1759.25240.44249.84717.04216076356400.151.461.61FF27.252334.252175430.405150142397.33503376219250.613289574279561631222212DRYL
2023-06-19 00:00:06FORECAST2023268-1763.75239.84851.819.570574102828001.331.33FF31.752330.752175431.477383803838.44426011342730.76084304806294164121227DRYL
2023-06-18 20:00:05FORECAST2023268-1764.7640.60452.68218.456552773784001.581.58FF32.76336.76175431.005805131687.95488138822030.78911824986659164121227DRYL
2023-06-18 16:00:08FORECAST2023268-1762.04239.75850.918.34173386422300.071.781.85FF30.042340.042175430.957125005447.90450089374040.70849148888096164121227DRYL
2023-06-18 12:00:05FORECAST2023268-1765.51642.27853.89718.459517732839001.651.65FF33.516343.516175431.007062006467.9561825040870.80897785456525164121227DRYL
2023-06-18 08:00:06FORECAST2023268-1765.49843.98854.74317.623821236616001.541.54FF33.498343.498175430.652427270967.58974139333820.80851872694016164121227DRYL
2023-06-18 04:00:18FORECAST2023268-1766.7444.4255.5816.58890342769001.421.42FF34.74353.74175430.212206694027.13674875026040.83860423464776164121227DRYL
2023-06-18 00:00:06FORECAST2023268-1762.00643.39452.718.743002230618001.551.55FF30.006344.006175431.127190116318.08061788603030.70733442130471164121227DRYL
2023-06-17 20:00:06FORECAST2023268-1762.16844.58253.37520.684256570562001.621.62FF30.168344.168175431.947487139878.93451264901050.71252434649216164121227DRYL
2023-06-17 16:00:07FORECAST2023268-1762.2441.23451.73720.86428755685200.021.611.63FF30.24341.24175432.023356342069.0138595379970.71481694075455164121227DRYL
2023-06-17 12:00:06FORECAST2023268-1761.95242.90852.4320.65866023935300.011.731.74FF29.952334.952175431.936697439398.92323347730850.70559483543016164121227DRYL
2023-06-17 08:00:08FORECAST2023268-1763.7742.60253.18618.659634986237001.781.78FF31.77351.77175431.091871767498.04401697271490.76136545704415164121227DRYL
2023-06-17 04:00:25FORECAST2023268-1763.57244.8754.22117.3888441584470.070866180.070866181.331.40086618FF31.572359.572175430.55257713787.48681166586670.7555847957408164121227DRYL
2023-06-17 00:00:04FORECAST2023268-1762.70843.9753.33915.670197013843001.281.28FF30.708355.708175429.820447922316.73537109952090.72950270120502164121227DRYL
2023-06-16 20:00:07FORECAST2023268-1763.33844.81654.07719.021124725748001.191.19FF31.338359.338175431.244962018368.20276420990160.7486571291527164121227DRYL
2023-06-16 16:00:05FORECAST2023268-1762.70845.66254.18522.7947455357840.027559070.027559071.381.40755907FF30.708333.708175432.834718954899.86635727762940.72950270120502164121227DRYL
2023-06-16 12:00:10FORECAST2023268-1770.98844.47457.73117.2824036674140.027559070.037559071.171.20755907FF38.988357.988175430.507327164887.44020140984270.917246944746271651212116DRYL
2023-06-16 08:00:05FORECAST2023268-1770.98844.7857.88417.308478774950.027559070.027559071.181.20755907FF38.988355.988175430.518413343897.45161881958790.917246944746271651212116DRYL
2023-06-16 04:00:13FORECAST2023268-1764.05839.84851.95320.90209595437300.071.471.54FF32.058338.058175432.03928526369.03052659663860.76963863715188164121227DRYL
2023-06-16 00:00:06FORECAST2023268-1750.46842.42246.44524.225367467746001.871.87FF18.468321.468175433.4334413520610.5000843895630.29665056714169162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-15 20:00:07FORECAST2023268-1750.59443.10646.8527.195464111118001.731.73FF18.594322.594175434.6695161847511.82103922760.30074213246046162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-15 16:00:05FORECAST2023268-1745.26636.03240.64925.724039986878001.731.73FF13.266335.266175434.0583143078711.1657334338930.15362723741041161121122DRYL
2023-06-15 12:00:06FORECAST2023268-1749.31645.21247.26423.09911985586100.051.721.77FF17.316334.316175432.9622833848510.0010476769740.26047973402052162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-15 08:00:07FORECAST2023268-1749.31645.21247.26422.65328876112200.011.611.62FF17.316326.316175432.775400309189.80378611191390.26047973402052162121225DRYL
2023-06-15 04:00:16FORECAST2023268-1748.68646.99447.8424.286088535493001.491.49FF16.686311.686175433.4588053220710.5270189225410.24170485524332161121122DRYL