Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, June 26, 2023

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DAY 269 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/27/2023 04:00:16 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.48°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.45°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.47°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.508 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 26 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 351 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.05 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.05 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.06 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.11 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 11 in SWE DAY: 176 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 437.54 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 5.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -16 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-27 04:00:16	OBSERVATION	2023	269	-16	58.47998	46.45004	52.46501	32.679724666667	0.049999999999955	0.049999999999955	2.06	2.11	F	F	26.47998	351.47998	176	437.53809112967	14.298624349296	0.50753476389752	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2023-06-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	269	-15	55.544	41.864	48.704	9.857832	0.10629927	0.10629927	2.06	2.16629927	F	F	23.544	348.544	177	428.6121028931	4.2251861034869	0.39737103548953	16	2	1	2	2	3	2	15	DRY	L
2023-06-26 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	269	-15	54.374	41.702	48.038	11.944916	0.07086618	0.07086618	2.06	2.13086618	F	F	22.374	347.374	177	429.50715624761	5.1304269027766	0.35518483337008	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-26 08:00:01	FORECAST	2023	269	-15	56.372	42.044	49.208	11.807648	0.09448824	0.09448824	2.06	2.15448824	F	F	24.372	349.372	177	429.44843404099	5.0707759433073	0.42800261513802	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2023-06-26 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	269	-15	56.894	42.332	49.613	12.021045218182	0.03543309	0.03543309	2.06	2.09543309	F	F	24.894	349.894	177	429.53971492308	5.1635163360952	0.44755187736856	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	56.426	42.242	49.334	11.47852	0.06692917	0.06692917	2.06	2.12692917	F	F	24.426	344.426	176	428.66568207647	4.9204476050284	0.43001762079696	16	2	1	2	1	3	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-25 20:00:01	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	57.776	41.9	49.838	15.7063944	0.05905515	0.05905515	2.06	2.11905515	F	F	25.776	344.776	176	430.47333236485	6.7611839368047	0.48084988116245	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	57.272	42.566	49.919	15.622164	0.04330711	0.04330711	2.06	2.10330711	F	F	25.272	344.272	176	430.43750839824	6.7243653479486	0.46179104052165	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	58.046	43.844	50.945	13.4798976	0.01181103	0.01181103	2.06	2.07181103	F	F	26.046	345.046	176	429.52380160711	5.7899368624266	0.49108080856177	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-25 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	56.984	42.71	49.847	13.6114584	0.01181103	0.01181103	2.06	2.07181103	F	F	24.984	342.984	176	429.58005754392	5.8472110827286	0.45093672689589	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-25 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	57.47	42.782	50.126	13.479865409524	0.01181103	0.01181103	2.06	2.07181103	F	F	25.47	344.47	176	429.52378784003	5.7899228502725	0.46927042129648	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-25 00:00:08	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	58.046	43.088	50.567	12.5772352	0.01968505	0.01968505	2.06	2.07968505	F	F	26.046	341.046	176	429.13731207918	5.3973609071156	0.49108080856177	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	58.01	43.466	50.738	16.3518792	0.00787402	0.00787402	2.06	2.06787402	F	F	26.01	341.01	176	430.7476087385	7.0435328637808	0.48971619864736	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	57.938	43.97	50.954	16.1748576	0.01574804	0.01574804	2.06	2.07574804	F	F	25.938	341.938	176	430.67243429653	6.9660652969917	0.48698735587861	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-24 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	59.36	43.826	51.593	14.2476936	0.00787402	0.00787402	2.06	2.06787402	F	F	27.36	344.36	176	429.85184919555	6.1243974407316	0.5408312339239	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-24 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	57.272	43.772	50.522	14.366856	0	0	2.06	2.06	F	F	25.272	340.272	176	429.90270505208	6.1763502574937	0.46179104052165	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-24 04:00:10	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	56.48	43.394	49.937	14.137053104762	0.03543309	0.03543309	2.06	2.09543309	F	F	24.48	339.48	176	429.80461651524	6.0761706883478	0.43203445060758	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-24 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	56.444	43.178	49.811	12.2991768	0.01968505	0.05968505	2.07	2.12968505	F	F	24.444	332.444	176	429.01807823581	5.2765691946185	0.43068969725743	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-23 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	57.02	43.214	50.117	16.336844	0.0393701	0.1093701	2.01	2.1193701	F	F	25.02	333.02	176	430.74122516574	7.0369521999015	0.45229168039447	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2023-06-23 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	58.712	43.628	51.17	16.1856032	0.07480319	0.17480319	2.01	2.18480319	F	F	26.712	334.712	176	430.67699851399	6.9707670053144	0.51632811382129	16	3	1	2	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2023-06-23 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	57.848	41.828	49.838	14.7930464	0.03149608	0.13149608	2.01	2.14149608	F	F	25.848	331.848	176	430.08446769236	6.3622594864924	0.48357717396765	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2023-06-23 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	58.244	42.548	50.396	14.4969608	0.00787402	0.08787402	2.23	2.31787402	F	F	26.244	334.244	176	429.9582133061	6.2330873639366	0.49858760097951	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-23 04:00:21	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	58.424	43.232	50.828	14.619404054545	0	0.08	2.01	2.09	F	F	26.424	333.424	176	430.01043606579	6.2864963125171	0.50541246163687	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-23 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	59.63	44.186	51.908	11.8757816	0.01968505	0.01968505	1.98	1.99968505	F	F	27.63	337.63	176	428.83636090234	5.092766964215	0.5510006119882	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-22 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	60.35	44.528	52.439	15.8012728	0.02362206	0.03362206	2	2.03362206	F	F	28.35	338.35	176	430.51367584628	6.8026640361778	0.57793796876468	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-22 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	59.774	42.098	50.936	16.208452	0.10629927	0.11629927	1.95	2.06629927	F	F	27.774	337.774	176	430.68670317846	6.9807647555063	0.55641104348375	16	3	1	2	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2023-06-22 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	59.216	42.926	51.071	14.1359512	0.12598432	0.14598432	1.93	2.07598432	F	F	27.216	338.216	176	429.80414604282	6.0756904340189	0.5353961895826	16	3	1	2	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2023-06-22 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	59.774	42.962	51.368	14.0604784	0.10236226	0.11236226	1.93	2.04236226	F	F	27.774	336.774	176	429.77191882542	6.0427987815713	0.55641104348375	16	3	1	2	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2023-06-22 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	57.866	42.836	50.351	14.758281326316	0.11023628	0.11023628	1.9	2.01023628	F	F	25.866	328.866	176	430.06964837493	6.347088860627	0.48425912224481	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2023-06-22 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	60.602	43.358	51.98	13.7000984	0.00787402	0.00787402	1.93	1.93787402	F	F	28.602	335.602	176	429.61794977256	5.8858081862903	0.58728717655595	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-21 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	61.034	45.068	53.051	15.3395016	0.00787402	0.00787402	1.94	1.94787402	F	F	29.034	341.034	176	430.31723343849	6.6008518908373	0.60319701284511	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-21 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	61.628	46.22	53.924	15.5194752	0	0	1.9	1.9	F	F	29.628	340.628	176	430.39382353467	6.6794862705795	0.62479057394013	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-21 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	60.116	41.54	50.828	15.2601912	0	0	1.93	1.93	F	F	28.116	335.116	176	430.28347075501	6.5662080339211	0.56921694286694	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-21 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	59.378	42.278	50.828	15.3193296	0	0	1.94	1.94	F	F	27.378	334.378	176	430.30864680042	6.5920399900656	0.54151009926715	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-21 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	60.188	44.798	52.493	14.995297416667	0	0	1.94	1.94	F	F	28.188	338.188	176	430.17065534194	6.4505369167749	0.57190413857274	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-21 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	59.216	43.628	51.422	13.7618544	0.01574804	0.01574804	1.74	1.75574804	F	F	27.216	348.216	176	429.64434446515	5.9127029123129	0.5353961895826	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-20 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	58.766	44.078	51.422	13.9690848	0	0	1.81	1.81	F	F	26.766	344.766	176	429.73288508523	6.0029751131042	0.51837368365755	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-20 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	56.714	42.8	49.757	14.682288	0.04724412	0.04724412	1.78	1.82724412	F	F	24.714	337.714	176	430.03725012207	6.3139307570203	0.44079386631536	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-20 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	58.838	45.122	51.98	13.548742434446	0.0393701	0.0393701	1.74	1.7793701	F	F	26.838	343.838	176	429.55324228497	5.8199062416002	0.52110034850169	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-20 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	60.296	43.538	51.917	13.234062944355	0.03149608	0.03149608	1.78	1.81149608	F	F	28.296	349.296	176	429.41863130524	5.6829531961723	0.57592865043458	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-20 04:00:19	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	61.322	45.896	53.609	13.862289102068	0.08267721	0.08267721	1.7	1.78267721	F	F	29.322	341.322	176	429.68726170559	5.9564490452388	0.61371069134529	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-20 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	59.666	46.652	53.159	13.339899355978	0	0	1.42	1.42	F	F	27.666	339.666	176	429.46391713526	5.7290054316083	0.5523541494239	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-19 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	62.312	47.948	55.13	12.618203775122	0	0.06	1.35	1.41	F	F	30.312	345.312	176	429.1548726413	5.4151636340744	0.64917635326155	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-19 16:00:09	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	59.702	46.4	53.051	12.845949967942	0.11023628	0.11023628	1.44	1.55023628	F	F	27.702	345.702	176	429.25245930604	5.5141556158614	0.55370707751747	16	3	1	2	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2023-06-19 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	60.62	43.304	51.962	14.10091549603	0	0	1.54	1.54	F	F	28.62	338.62	176	429.78918641149	6.0604209986958	0.58795315278972	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-19 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	62.258	45.122	53.69	14.157756155622	0	0	1.52	1.52	F	F	30.258	335.258	176	429.8134557045	6.0851940982698	0.64727181359012	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-19 04:00:21	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	59.972	42.818	51.395	14.454831163564	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	27.972	332.972	176	429.94024101542	6.2147135943	0.56383304914711	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-19 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	60.44	46.544	53.492	16.770405302828	0.07086618	0.07086618	1.33	1.40086618	F	F	28.44	330.44	176	430.92520672623	7.2267903720039	0.58128230461081	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-18 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	61.124	47.588	54.356	15.537221573784	0.08661422	0.08661422	1.58	1.66661422	F	F	29.124	337.124	176	430.40137383764	6.6872415109766	0.6064909972533	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-18 16:00:08	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	63.896	49.226	56.561	15.143733864223	0.0787402	0.0787402	1.85	1.9287402	F	F	31.896	342.896	176	430.23388217814	6.5153474110771	0.7032091422958	16	4	1	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-06-18 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	66.236	49.766	58.001	15.066095332839	0.03149608	0.03149608	1.65	1.68149608	F	F	34.236	349.236	176	430.20081484585	6.4814464887325	0.77520226120909	16	4	1	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-06-18 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	66.794	50.342	58.568	14.186709236616	0.04330711	0.04330711	1.54	1.58330711	F	F	34.794	348.794	176	429.82581647325	6.097813880697	0.79078278429572	16	4	1	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-06-18 04:00:19	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	69.08	49.55	59.315	13.01609782769	0	0	1.42	1.42	F	F	37.08	362.08	176	429.32532890465	5.5881404809279	0.84767966400808	16	4	1	2	1	2	1	14	DRY	L
2023-06-18 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	64.148	47.588	55.868	15.580426230618	0	0	1.55	1.55	F	F	32.148	347.148	176	430.41975409958	6.7061232269494	0.7114431755281	16	4	1	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-06-17 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	63.788	48.254	56.021	17.482517370562	0.04330711	0.04330711	1.62	1.66330711	F	F	31.788	346.788	176	431.22695185486	7.5389326764571	0.69964767948927	16	4	1	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-06-17 16:00:08	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	63.842	48.092	55.967	17.848819556852	0.05118113	0.05118113	1.63	1.68118113	F	F	31.842	343.842	176	431.38195359919	7.6996586498742	0.7014308238688	16	4	1	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-06-17 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	65.822	47.444	56.633	17.409885839353	0	0.01	1.73	1.74	F	F	33.822	339.822	176	431.19620049289	7.5070766249438	0.76323021864537	16	4	1	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-06-17 08:00:08	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	67.496	47.732	57.614	15.339815786237	0	0	1.78	1.78	F	F	35.496	358.496	176	430.31736717502	6.6009891420833	0.80945455080861	16	4	1	2	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-06-17 04:00:26	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	63.086	44.348	53.717	14.727911358447	0.37795296	0.44795296	1.33	1.77795296	F	F	31.086	362.086	176	430.05670148952	6.3338369786436	0.67604352683304	16	3	1	2	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2023-06-17 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	48.344	44.726	46.535	15.001864213843	0	0	1.28	1.28	F	F	16.344	343.344	176	430.17345298786	6.4534037301239	0.17243310324057	16	1	1	2	1	2	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-16 20:00:08	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	52.538	48.29	50.414	18.272300725748	0	0	1.19	1.19	F	F	20.538	350.538	176	431.56097113513	7.8856118460769	0.29257872050564	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-16 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	48.326	44.042	46.184	22.181024735784	0	0.03	1.38	1.41	F	F	16.326	321.326	176	433.2042406409	9.6089139773022	0.17199631624293	16	1	1	2	1	2	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-16 12:00:10	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	55.598	51.728	53.663	16.363150867414	0.01181103	0.04181103	1.18	1.22181103	F	F	23.598	352.598	176	430.75239424884	7.0484664135935	0.39935173549284	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-16 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	55.598	51.728	53.663	16.38922597495	0.01181103	0.04181103	1.18	1.22181103	F	F	23.598	350.598	176	430.76346419741	7.0598797564837	0.39935173549284	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-16 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	269	-16	46.22	44.762	45.491	20.680892754373	0	0	1.54	1.54	F	F	14.22	323.22	176	432.57549748593	8.9460474716761	0.12576414960536	16	1	1	2	1	2	2	4	DRY	L