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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 24, 2023

[ Friday, June 23, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, June 25, 2023 ]

DAY 267 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/25/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.77°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.59°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.18°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.662
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 361

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.22 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.84 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.06 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 18 in
SWE DAY: 174
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 430.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.71 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -18

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-25 04:00:06OBSERVATION2023267-1859.7700442.5899451.1799917.92272380952400.221.842.06FF27.77004360.77004174430.14308894595 7.70933578175380.662041112763116 31222212DRYL
2023-06-25 00:00:04FORECAST2023267-1755.45437.45446.45417.198591200.221.842.06FF23.454356.454175430.471688205477.40350658861980.508339290266741631222212DRYL
2023-06-24 12:00:02FORECAST2023267-1754.87837.5846.22919.19239200.221.842.06FF22.878355.878175431.317444339038.27801346819280.487198309145431621222210DRYL
2023-06-24 08:00:02FORECAST2023267-1754.538.08446.29219.137386400.221.842.06FF22.5355.5175431.294168760618.25384315963850.473340374790311621222210DRYL
2023-06-24 04:00:09FORECAST2023267-1755.00438.91246.95818.85257790476200.221.842.06FF23.004356.004175431.173600234938.12873388890570.491821887475381621222210DRYL
2023-06-24 00:00:04FORECAST2023267-1855.20238.8447.02117.007813600.231.842.07FF23.202350.202174429.752790042247.30915534711830.499089491950691631222212DRYL
2023-06-23 20:00:02FORECAST2023267-1855.59838.55247.07521.0014960.011811030.181811031.842.02181103FF23.598349.598174431.449845509019.06109220465810.513623195499781631222212DRYL
2023-06-23 16:00:02FORECAST2023267-1855.9438.13847.03920.99569040.007874020.177874021.842.01787402FF23.94349.94174431.447390979659.05853584489640.526161189217091631222212DRYL
2023-06-23 12:00:04FORECAST2023267-1854.66238.42646.54419.2834320.03937010.20937011.842.0493701FF22.662348.662174430.721889380428.30579626477890.479276520280981621222210DRYL
2023-06-23 08:00:03FORECAST2023267-1855.7638.7547.25519.17007520.03937010.42937011.842.2693701FF23.76349.76174430.673747479958.25604812585640.519564685207081631222212DRYL
2023-06-23 04:00:19FORECAST2023267-1854.82439.61447.21919.3935752545450.007874020.177874021.842.01787402FF22.824348.824174430.768653233338.35414429377980.485217265935721621222210DRYL
2023-06-23 00:00:05FORECAST2023267-1856.0340.42448.22716.935509600.141.841.98FF24.03350.03174429.721906608117.2775594746920.529456866678941631222212DRYL
2023-06-22 20:00:04FORECAST2023267-1855.16639.70447.43520.883829600.161.842FF23.166350.166174431.400090674439.00928598306940.49776801615911621222210DRYL
2023-06-22 16:00:03FORECAST2023267-1854.87838.5746.72420.993447200.111.841.95FF22.878349.878174431.446442575269.05754811183150.487198309145431621222210DRYL
2023-06-22 12:00:03FORECAST2023267-1855.32838.89447.11118.983036800.091.841.93FF23.328351.328174430.594283169588.17398712327780.50371464074111163121226DRYL
2023-06-22 08:00:05FORECAST2023267-1854.89639.4747.18318.942299200.091.841.93FF22.896349.896174430.576970565148.15611780507450.48785872950342162121225DRYL
2023-06-22 04:00:15FORECAST2023267-1853.70839.32646.51719.31971172631600.061.841.9FF21.708345.708174430.737294217928.32172035406350.44442873508457162121225DRYL
2023-06-22 00:00:04FORECAST2023267-1854.39239.246.79618.644796800.11.831.93FF22.392348.392174430.450484113848.02566180876410.469386149232161621222210DRYL
2023-06-21 20:00:04FORECAST2023267-1855.79639.30847.55220.54200800.111.831.94FF23.796351.796174431.255468206838.85885327794850.520884472757611631222212DRYL
2023-06-21 16:00:04FORECAST2023267-1855.74238.7547.24620.753272800.071.831.9FF23.742350.742174431.344867772378.95181771175990.5189047100918163121226DRYL
2023-06-21 12:00:04FORECAST2023267-1856.35438.5747.46219.930550400.11.831.93FF24.354349.354174430.99645111268.58999649112080.541303000719371631222212DRYL
2023-06-21 08:00:05FORECAST2023267-1854.93238.87646.90419.93930800.111.831.94FF22.932348.932174431.000163724598.5938450125550.489179668293061621222210DRYL
2023-06-21 04:00:11FORECAST2023267-1854.73438.37246.55319.83500301666700.111.831.94FF22.734350.734174430.95594031578.54801237621230.481916362000281621222210DRYL
2023-06-21 00:00:05FORECAST2023267-1856.98439.61448.29918.66207600.081.661.74FF24.984360.984174430.45783317258.03323679746050.56422314588674163121226DRYL
2023-06-20 20:00:05FORECAST2023267-1856.76839.84848.30818.92086800.131.681.81FF24.768357.768174430.567862046638.14671768282650.556385115717131631222212DRYL
2023-06-20 16:00:05FORECAST2023267-1855.68839.30847.49819.315058400.11.681.78FF23.688353.688174430.73531843528.31967783051840.516924481060751631222212DRYL
2023-06-20 12:00:07FORECAST2023267-1856.22840.20848.21818.61319363444600.061.681.74FF24.228357.228174430.437042060018.01180801130120.53669994353447163121226DRYL
2023-06-20 08:00:05FORECAST2023267-1857.239.88448.54218.39051814435500.111.671.78FF25.2360.2174430.342298932967.914217856810.572036032532671631222212DRYL
2023-06-20 04:00:18FORECAST2023267-1855.97640.0147.99319.34169310206800.031.671.7FF23.976351.976174430.746627101658.3313690661510.5274796877787163121226DRYL
2023-06-20 00:00:07FORECAST2023267-1855.97638.37247.17418.744519355978001.421.42FF23.976350.976174430.492892916698.06938236388770.5274796877787163121226DRYL
2023-06-19 20:00:06FORECAST2023267-1856.4838.73247.60618.365452575122001.351.35FF24.48352.48174430.33163077337.90323515654190.54590052653305163121226DRYL
2023-06-19 16:00:07FORECAST2023267-1857.54239.86648.70418.41588196794200.021.421.44FF25.542354.542174430.353093341337.92533177151270.58434771264047163121226DRYL
2023-06-19 12:00:04FORECAST2023267-1855.0437.83246.43619.0885162960300.121.421.54FF23.04350.04174430.639101365168.22026150411650.493143138893161621222210DRYL
2023-06-19 08:00:06FORECAST2023267-1852.59238.17445.38319.43917935562200.171.351.52FF20.592344.592174430.788011674198.37416542318650.40422079855431621222210DRYL
2023-06-19 04:00:19FORECAST2023267-1852.77237.7645.26619.44991036356400.151.461.61FF20.772344.772174430.79256654358.37887680456090.410649501943571621222210DRYL
2023-06-19 00:00:05FORECAST2023267-1852.21437.59844.90622.145406902828001.331.33FF20.214337.214174431.93277012459.56532694907280.39080631762006162121225DRYL
2023-06-18 20:00:05FORECAST2023267-1853.40237.86845.63521.054411173784001.581.58FF21.402342.402174431.472215662339.08439343861850.43332856681707162121225DRYL
2023-06-18 16:00:08FORECAST2023267-1852.53838.60645.57220.81964266422300.071.781.85FF20.538347.538174431.372943179288.98103053200660.40229713459214162121225DRYL
2023-06-18 12:00:05FORECAST2023267-1854.08638.22846.15721.413584132839001.651.65FF22.086348.086174431.623978379119.24261637477160.45820018014563162121225DRYL
2023-06-18 08:00:06FORECAST2023267-1854.2339.81247.02120.665463636616001.541.54FF22.23348.23174431.307715959728.91317392035750.46346058911823162121225DRYL
2023-06-18 04:00:17FORECAST2023267-1857.93839.90248.9219.68279622769001.421.42FF25.938356.938174430.891386389138.4811473545640.59849984546359163121226DRYL
2023-06-18 00:00:06FORECAST2023267-1857.9238.51648.21821.505975830618001.551.55FF25.92351.92174431.662994611679.28333392909080.59785921130212163121226DRYL
2023-06-17 20:00:06FORECAST2023267-1857.95639.32648.64123.499972570562001.621.62FF25.956351.956174432.5028152338410.1638042946860.59914021504679163121123DRYL
2023-06-17 16:00:07FORECAST2023267-1855.11239.97447.54323.52866435685200.021.611.63FF23.112349.112174432.5148684679510.176497169530.49578585292158162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-17 12:00:06FORECAST2023267-1857.25440.44248.84823.4209450393530.007874020.007874021.731.73787402FF25.254343.254174432.4696117362810.1288470076660.5739849739697163121123DRYL
2023-06-17 08:00:08FORECAST2023267-1858.65840.40649.53221.506642186237001.781.78FF26.658357.658174431.663275974759.28362762132780.62389094534525163121226DRYL
2023-06-17 04:00:24FORECAST2023267-1861.17844.6952.93420.293415358447001.331.33FF29.178366.178174431.150211404368.74951032191070.70801590958808164121227DRYL
2023-06-17 00:00:04FORECAST2023267-1860.74644.0652.40318.47203861384300.021.261.28FF28.746362.746174430.376990172667.94994038097890.69421904251578163121226DRYL
2023-06-16 20:00:07FORECAST2023267-1861.2544.70852.97921.938291125748001.191.19FF29.25366.25174431.84543609779.47395089843690.71028694199825164121227DRYL
2023-06-16 16:00:05FORECAST2023267-1860.1742.8951.5325.626500735784001.381.38FF28.17341.17174433.3937801474811.1063660258340.67538889369508163121123DRYL
2023-06-16 12:00:09FORECAST2023267-1859.84644.72652.28620.47755006741400.011.171.18FF27.846356.846174431.228182405778.83049669569390.66459247374527163121226DRYL
2023-06-16 08:00:05FORECAST2023267-1859.41444.79852.10620.48148517495001.181.18FF27.414355.414174431.229848311128.83222774518010.64998462413082163121226DRYL
2023-06-16 04:00:13FORECAST2023267-1854.2338.91246.57123.46157835437300.11.441.54FF22.23344.23174432.4866846973310.1468202402490.46346058911823162122125DRYL
2023-06-16 00:00:06FORECAST2023267-1859.0940.78449.93724.784771467746001.871.87FF27.09341.09174433.0416908614310.7328393440070.63887979960309163121123DRYL
2023-06-15 20:00:07FORECAST2023267-1859.2741.32450.29727.779172911118001.731.73FF27.27342.27174434.2908105507412.0642395199990.6450642960513163121123DRYL
2023-06-15 16:00:05FORECAST2023267-1862.00642.8952.44826.08575838687800.011.721.73FF30.006360.006174433.5855671444811.3104083445680.73361810961279164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-15 12:00:05FORECAST2023267-1862.3343.64652.98823.7602694558610.027559070.067559071.71.76755907FF30.33355.33174432.6121321171710.2789808289780.74331820568339164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-15 08:00:06FORECAST2023267-1862.47443.73653.10523.3144383611220.011811030.051811031.571.62181103FF30.474347.474174432.4248523017610.0817425648070.74756964177765164121123.5DRYL
2023-06-15 04:00:16FORECAST2023267-1859.2742.51250.89124.545864535493001.491.49FF27.27333.27174432.9416205880610.6269263707310.6450642960513163121123DRYL
2023-06-15 00:00:08FORECAST2023267-1850.75642.5346.64323.74692967514300.041.151.19FF18.756357.756174432.6065315663510.2730768821140.34039869135341162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-14 20:00:05FORECAST2023267-1855.02241.01848.0226.0379830718500.051.131.18FF23.022358.022174433.5656264931811.2891744431650.4924825028748162121122.5DRYL
2023-06-14 16:00:08FORECAST2023267-1846.86839.00242.93527.70755361419300.071.71.77FF14.868350.868174434.2610452026712.0323111925090.22089701640074161121122DRYL
2023-06-14 12:00:09FORECAST2023267-1845.39242.5343.96125.2484054877190.055118140.145118141.781.92511814FF13.392351.392174433.2357187507410.9385110987820.18272386547367161122124DRYL
2023-06-14 09:17:03FORECAST2023267-1845.39242.5343.96124.3349196446490.055118140.145118141.681.82511814FF13.392357.392174432.8532122021210.5334481368670.18272386547367161122124DRYL
2023-06-14 09:17:02FORECAST2023267-1845.39242.5343.96124.3349196446490.055118140.145118141.681.82511814FF13.392357.392174432.8532122021210.5334481368670.18272386547367161122124DRYL
2023-06-14 08:00:04FORECAST2023267-1843.55639.77641.666117.128109165290.055118140.145118141.71.84511814FF11.556349.556174467.5094347192854.75849610560.14139047991228161122124DRYL
2023-06-14 04:00:18FORECAST2023267-1839.34437.68838.516116.98364755302001.461.46FF7.344358.344174467.4615814048854.6853608836480.071828250656407161121122DRYL