Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 20, 2023

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DAY 263 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/21/2023 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.12°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.65°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.39°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.026 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 381 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.27 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.98 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.85 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.83 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 27 in SWE DAY: 170 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 431.43 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 11.63 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -22 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-21 04:00:08	OBSERVATION	2023	263	-22	37.11992	31.65008	34.385	26.950405416667	0.2700000000001	0.9800000000001	0.85	1.8300000000001	F	F	5.11992	381.11992	170	431.43490259434	11.627345535818	0.025501216232879	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-21 00:00:01	FORECAST	2023	263	-21	38.318	28.76	33.539	26.6834472	0.10236226	0.81236226	0.85	1.66236226	F	F	6.318	382.318	171	431.95378395554	11.526015987018	0.033737941651879	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-20 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	263	-21	38.534	29.12	33.827	26.684158434446	0.12204731	0.83204731	0.85	1.68204731	F	F	6.534	382.534	171	431.95408374299	11.526331207004	0.035433423254653	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	263	-21	40.154	28.724	34.439	26.578086944355	0.10629927	0.81629927	0.85	1.66629927	F	F	8.154	384.154	171	431.90936830786	11.479324742968	0.050481335807743	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-20 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	263	-21	38.93	28.976	33.953	26.929218702068	0.09448824	0.80448824	0.85	1.65448824	F	F	6.93	382.93	171	432.05734514862	11.634966739342	0.038722465713725	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-20 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	38.516	27.608	33.062	26.111038555978	0.1968505	0.5568505	0.85	1.4068505	F	F	6.516	381.516	170	431.07962177401	11.255936624837	0.035289522658119	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-19 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	37.922	27.914	32.918	25.877210175122	0.17716545	0.49716545	0.85	1.34716545	F	F	5.922	381.922	170	430.98051370469	11.152573334518	0.030802577478173	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	37.994	27.968	32.981	26.146776367942	0.24803163	0.56803163	0.85	1.41803163	F	F	5.994	381.994	170	431.09476404682	11.271738388923	0.031320017636696	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-19 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	38.228	28.922	33.575	26.08022989603	0.24803163	0.56803163	0.85	1.41803163	F	F	6.228	382.228	170	431.06656690196	11.242315165295	0.033051414737065	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-19 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	37.67	28.76	33.215	26.152420955622	0.20472452	0.50472452	0.85	1.35472452	F	F	5.67	381.67	170	431.0971555585	11.274234284937	0.029046820749738	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-19 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	37.058	28.292	32.675	26.269817563564	0.2755907	0.6055907	0.85	1.4555907	F	F	5.058	380.058	170	431.14688664739	11.326150055326	0.02512576077964	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-19 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	36.572	28.904	32.738	28.576338902828	0.17716545	0.47716545	0.85	1.32716545	F	F	4.572	377.572	170	432.12096433339	12.348435123808	0.022336422826846	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	36.896	28.85	32.873	27.952447973784	0.2362206	0.7262206	0.85	1.5762206	F	F	4.896	377.896	170	431.85804885666	12.071489642726	0.024165272236719	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-18 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	38.444	29.246	33.845	28.042694664223	0.40944904	0.92944904	0.85	1.77944904	F	F	6.444	380.444	170	431.89610572555	12.111530619528	0.034718692128965	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-18 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	38.39	29.336	33.863	28.751862532839	0.30708678	0.79708678	0.85	1.64708678	F	F	6.39	380.39	170	432.19485713118	12.426407119635	0.034295548997357	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-18 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	36.518	28.94	32.729	28.717338836616	0.30708678	0.68708678	0.85	1.53708678	F	F	4.518	374.518	170	432.18032577886	12.411068853911	0.022043236057198	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-18 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	38.804	29.876	34.34	27.83061142769	0.16141741	0.57141741	0.85	1.42141741	F	F	6.804	380.804	170	431.80665676135	12.017443276215	0.037650072879506	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-18 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	37.328	28.814	33.071	28.964991030618	0.38582698	0.82582698	0.72	1.54582698	F	F	5.328	381.328	170	432.28453673508	12.521117729207	0.026797417433605	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-17 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	37.472	29.228	33.35	30.881645370562	0.4330711	0.9030711	0.72	1.6230711	F	F	5.472	383.472	170	433.08884343751	13.374496076984	0.027726201181214	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-17 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	38.372	30.164	34.268	30.595119795393	0.36614193	0.82614193	0.72	1.54614193	F	F	6.372	385.372	170	432.96885434725	13.246733966428	0.034155443973829	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-17 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	37.634	28.904	33.269	30.260627418197	0.46063017	0.96063017	0.72	1.68063017	F	F	5.634	381.634	170	432.82866754769	13.097667044575	0.028802903907039	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-17 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	39.002	29.534	34.268	29.330721386237	0.50787429	1.00787429	0.72	1.72787429	F	F	7.002	387.002	170	432.43831462743	12.683727723071	0.039346316350642	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-06-17 04:00:21	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	38.714	30.29	34.502	29.324173758447	0.23228359	0.61228359	0.72	1.33228359	F	F	6.714	384.714	170	432.43556281546	12.680815583332	0.036898976266834	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-17 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	38.228	30.344	34.286	27.005223018592	0.25590565	0.58590565	0.65	1.23590565	F	F	6.228	384.228	170	431.45807903311	11.651621647462	0.033051414737065	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-16 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	40.352	30.218	35.285	30.537368725748	0.23228359	0.54228359	0.65	1.19228359	F	F	8.352	386.352	170	432.94465919953	13.220990695819	0.052625755303035	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-16 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	35.906	27.986	31.946	32.273027135784	0.32283482	0.73283482	0.65	1.38283482	F	F	3.906	377.906	170	433.6702761133	13.995852588987	0.018940984602856	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-16 12:00:08	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	39.38	28.31	33.845	28.747774867414	0.17322844	0.51322844	0.65	1.16322844	F	F	7.38	382.38	170	432.1931366604	12.424590991955	0.042756524841948	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-16 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	39.542	28.958	34.25	28.871279407349	0.16929143	0.50929143	0.65	1.15929143	F	F	7.542	381.542	170	432.24511100456	12.479469372273	0.044289156182578	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-16 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	38.084	27.626	32.855	30.287536965748	0.37007894	0.72007894	0.66	1.38007894	F	F	6.084	379.084	170	432.83994982908	13.109655980701	0.031976876076586	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-16 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	35.726	28.256	31.991	31.600133434415	0.7480319	1.1380319	0.67	1.8080319	F	F	3.726	373.726	170	433.38934287034	13.695161063756	0.01810231792902	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-06-15 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	37.364	28.886	33.125	34.525943015516	0.65354366	1.03354366	0.65	1.68354366	F	F	5.364	376.364	170	434.60738151943	15.005229688463	0.027027149359711	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-06-15 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	38.426	28.58	33.503	33.946540786878	0.72047283	1.07047283	0.65	1.72047283	F	F	6.426	384.426	170	434.36688984729	14.74525334267	0.034577171980513	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-06-15 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	37.04	28.868	32.954	31.416183055861	0.67716572	1.04716572	0.65	1.69716572	F	F	5.04	382.04	170	433.31245994453	13.613023562003	0.025017487711912	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2023-06-15 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	37.76	29.462	33.611	31.055074361122	0.61417356	0.92417356	0.65	1.57417356	F	F	5.76	374.76	170	433.16142835175	13.451860367833	0.029664109509727	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-15 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	36.446	28.598	32.522	31.616396535493	0.42126007	0.77126007	0.65	1.42126007	F	F	4.446	371.446	170	433.39613838173	13.702424168028	0.021657367732966	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-15 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	40.424	28.13	34.277	29.617768875143	0.2362206	0.4762206	0.65	1.1262206	F	F	8.424	396.424	170	432.55890887711	12.811429788006	0.053423176109234	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	40.244	28.112	34.178	31.41465747185	0.22440957	0.44440957	0.65	1.09440957	F	F	8.244	395.244	170	433.31182216931	13.612342471952	0.051447310049797	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-14 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	38.75	29.966	34.358	32.27138182488	0.61811057	0.75811057	0.68	1.43811057	F	F	6.75	394.75	170	433.66958978112	13.995116917666	0.037197936100905	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-14 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	40.928	32.522	36.725	30.428181487719	0.46850419	0.83850419	0.65	1.48850419	F	F	8.928	397.928	170	432.89890486929	13.172326443198	0.059275315724043	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-14 09:17:01	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	41.054	33.17	37.112	29.729306044649	0.4330711	0.7730711	0.65	1.4230711	F	F	9.054	401.054	170	432.60574410284	12.861068563106	0.060813921581705	16	1	1	3	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-14 09:17:01	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	41.054	33.17	37.112	29.729306044649	0.4330711	0.7730711	0.65	1.4230711	F	F	9.054	401.054	170	432.60574410284	12.861068563106	0.060813921581705	16	1	1	3	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-14 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	40.784	31.946	36.365	122.21479876529	0.45669316	0.74669316	0.66	1.40669316	F	F	8.784	396.784	170	467.21183009932	57.10019979635	0.057554345273312	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-14 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	41.63	31.334	36.482	122.47751635302	0.53543336	0.78543336	0.66	1.44543336	F	F	9.63	401.63	170	467.29900957363	57.233622086806	0.068246991262962	16	1	1	3	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-14 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	43.43	31.946	37.688	130.8525392	0.393701	0.453701	0.66	1.113701	F	F	11.43	404.43	170	470.047885253	61.506959330945	0.095996857432153	16	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-13 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	41.342	30.848	36.095	136.74575883037	0.47637821	0.59637821	0.65	1.24637821	F	F	9.342	393.342	170	471.94742281176	64.53680846043	0.064447515578989	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-13 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	45.248	33.17	39.209	135.12406228749	0.1968505	0.2468505	0.66	0.9068505	F	F	13.248	399.248	170	471.42754039877	63.701204332883	0.13162594581443	16	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-13 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	44.654	33.35	39.002	133.36139024558	0.22440957	0.26440957	0.68	0.94440957	F	F	12.654	400.654	170	470.86003007157	62.794548221421	0.11910258622728	16	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-13 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	42.908	29.966	36.437	133.97663242747	0.22440957	0.30440957	0.69	0.99440957	F	F	10.908	398.908	170	471.05840231619	63.110818418987	0.087211841239314	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	44.51	31.856	38.183	133.89467097758	0.39763801	0.52763801	0.66	1.18763801	F	F	12.51	399.51	170	471.03199341937	63.068673778798	0.11619727099849	16	1	1	3	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-13 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	44.474	33.134	38.804	32.29101442399	0.0393701	0.3893701	0.8	1.1893701	F	F	12.474	382.474	170	433.67777922223	14.003895424229	0.11547884275656	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-12 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	47.732	36.59	42.161	36.519446446108	0.03543309	0.39543309	0.84	1.23543309	F	F	15.732	401.732	170	435.4321236805	15.901740121665	0.1935678214223	16	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-12 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	42.242	33.062	37.652	37.100170451495	1.34252041	2.14252041	0.95	3.09252041	T	F	10.242	402.242	170	435.67159347298	16.163490378722	0.076890229183575	16	1	1	3	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2023-06-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	42.44	28.382	35.411	37.051972711629	1.13385888	1.88385888	0.99	2.87385888	T	F	10.44	395.44	170	435.65173188921	16.141756081733	0.079857169595842	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2023-06-12 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	41.612	28.796	35.204	38.105483255258	1.16929197	1.92929197	1	2.92929197	T	F	9.612	385.612	170	436.08531437846	16.617241644912	0.068004586064792	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2023-06-12 04:00:19	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	39.038	30.488	34.763	34.128132716834	0.16929143	0.74929143	1.15	1.89929143	F	F	7.038	395.038	170	434.44230103893	14.826704507663	0.039661285274493	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-12 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	41.864	29.138	35.501	33.518132382288	0.1968505	0.8668505	1.14	2.0068505	F	F	9.864	380.864	170	434.1888432381	14.553199126567	0.071459043329555	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-11 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	44.042	29.552	36.797	37.402839627514	0.16929143	0.81929143	1.16	1.97929143	F	F	12.042	392.042	170	435.79626345182	16.300017752158	0.10710232390224	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-11 16:00:10	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	53.996	31.802	42.899	35.114485284591	0.07086618	0.47086618	1.2	1.67086618	F	F	21.996	406.996	170	434.85130485866	15.269579745445	0.41102368411922	16	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-11 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	51.62	36.662	44.141	29.5491536	0.13385834	0.24385834	1.02	1.26385834	F	F	19.62	425.62	170	432.53009025776	12.780898073648	0.32003160600582	16	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-11 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	48.812	34.466	41.639	31.0814384	0.14173236	0.25173236	1.01	1.26173236	F	F	16.812	414.812	170	433.17245964462	13.463623121021	0.22528382515588	16	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-11 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	56.876	35.618	46.247	31.416688824762	0.05905515	0.48905515	1.16	1.64905515	F	F	24.876	411.876	170	433.31267138228	13.613249360643	0.52760949461246	16	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2023-06-11 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	41.108	33.962	37.535	30.815054342012	0	0.48	0.83	1.31	F	F	9.108	416.108	170	433.060964721	13.344797161282	0.061482777077871	16	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-10 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	41.81	37.976	39.893	31.800367534719	0	0.43	0.82	1.25	F	F	9.81	416.81	170	433.47299083137	13.784600424812	0.070707727341204	16	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-10 16:00:08	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	39.902	37.418	38.66	32.698177210913	0	0.44	0.8	1.24	F	F	7.902	405.902	170	433.84752897985	14.1860233851	0.047853092857682	16	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-10 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	36.608	35.168	35.888	33.301034960187	0.07480319	0.52480319	0.7	1.22480319	F	F	4.608	398.608	170	434.09854351745	14.455930773841	0.022533698368931	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-10 08:00:08	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	34.916	33.53	34.223	30.37446887484	0.07480319	0.50480319	0.69	1.19480319	F	F	2.916	416.916	170	432.87639222816	13.148390502388	0.014708467022198	16	1	1	3	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-10 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	263	-22	37.4	37.184	37.292	30.07588795002	0	0	0.61	0.61	F	F	5.4	422.4	170	432.75119158874	13.015376348461	0.027258518329955	16	1	1	3	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L