Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 21, 2023

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DAY 264 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/22/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.14°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.54°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.84°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.291 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 18 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 370 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.74 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.10 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.84 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 25 in SWE DAY: 171 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 431.36 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 10.91 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -21 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-22 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2023	264	-21	50.14004	33.54008	41.84006	25.285900526316	0.0099999999999909	0.73999999999999	1.1	1.84	F	F	18.14004	370.14004	171	431.36366652616	10.907418762447	0.29052902065098	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-22 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	264	-20	49.406	31.622	40.514	24.8253992	0	0.73	1.1	1.83	F	F	17.406	369.406	172	431.80113588327	10.719635573316	0.26577356221261	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-21 12:00:01	FORECAST	2023	264	-20	49.118	30.776	39.947	25.8901464	0	0.73	1.1	1.83	F	F	17.118	369.118	172	432.24973638252	11.191008956305	0.25636106012581	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-21 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	264	-20	49.01	30.704	39.857	25.8967392	0	0.73	1.1	1.83	F	F	17.01	369.01	172	432.2525102909	11.193930527549	0.2528766365212	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-21 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	264	-20	49.64	30.344	39.992	25.823922216667	0	0.73	1.1	1.83	F	F	17.64	369.64	172	432.22187010319	11.161663953887	0.27354798367042	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-21 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	53.618	30.668	42.143	25.3377288	0	0.56	1.1	1.66	F	F	21.618	374.618	171	431.38558856148	10.930331051199	0.41989321634888	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-20 20:00:01	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	51.782	31.208	41.495	25.6271232	0	0.58	1.1	1.68	F	F	19.782	373.782	171	431.50794196631	11.058307190549	0.34946905258887	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	51.008	30.524	40.766	25.714404	0	0.58	1.1	1.68	F	F	19.008	373.008	171	431.54482587083	11.096917996552	0.32111884867268	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-20 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	51.656	32.99	42.323	25.306558434446	0	0.58	1.1	1.68	F	F	19.656	373.656	171	431.37240463929	10.916550965012	0.34479104607384	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-20 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	51.926	32.846	42.386	25.162406144355	0	0.57	1.1	1.67	F	F	19.926	374.926	171	431.31141992634	10.852833122885	0.35484342588062	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-20 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	50.108	33.008	41.558	25.668321102068	0.01574804	0.56574804	1.1	1.66574804	F	F	18.108	372.108	171	431.52535276477	11.076531318449	0.2894263360594	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-20 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	48.848	31.676	40.262	24.957593755978	0.01181103	0.32181103	1.1	1.42181103	F	F	16.848	369.848	171	431.22473409169	10.76233173099	0.24769704790466	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-19 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	49.946	32.108	41.027	24.664626975122	0	0.25	1.1	1.35	F	F	17.946	370.946	171	431.10065893014	10.632936941241	0.28388125579562	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-19 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	49.244	32.252	40.748	24.966173167942	0	0.32	1.1	1.42	F	F	17.244	370.244	171	431.22836619057	10.766122065242	0.26045757797896	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-19 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	49.874	30.866	40.37	24.94390669603	0	0.32	1.1	1.42	F	F	17.874	370.874	171	431.2189395033	10.756284992531	0.28143318655156	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-19 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	48.398	31.208	39.803	25.082517755622	0	0.25	1.1	1.35	F	F	16.398	369.398	171	431.27761292361	10.817528383759	0.23361118057675	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-19 04:00:17	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	48.686	31.118	39.902	25.187023963564	0	0.36	1.1	1.46	F	F	16.686	367.686	171	431.32183626144	10.863713425925	0.24257457763818	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-19 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	46.778	31.226	39.002	27.624712502828	0	0.33	1	1.33	F	F	14.778	363.778	171	432.3500565746	11.943546013455	0.1867506932169	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-18 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	47.732	31.658	39.695	26.898977573784	0	0.4	1.18	1.58	F	F	15.732	364.732	171	432.0446058761	11.621558164336	0.21360285617834	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-18 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	49.28	32.72	41	26.856187464223	0	0.6	1.18	1.78	F	F	17.28	368.28	171	432.02657859141	11.602586784178	0.26163416454676	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-18 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	49.1	32.756	40.928	27.537803332839	0	0.47	1.18	1.65	F	F	17.1	368.1	171	432.31350750789	11.904964347882	0.25577859269805	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-18 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	48.758	32.612	40.685	27.494718836616	0	0.49	1.05	1.54	F	F	16.758	362.758	171	432.29538562138	11.885840082026	0.24484413311492	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-18 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	49.802	33.548	41.675	26.52376102769	0	0.35	1.07	1.42	F	F	17.802	369.802	171	431.88646204071	11.455253310262	0.27899533824429	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-18 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	47.642	32.162	39.902	27.961901430618	0	0.58	0.97	1.55	F	F	15.642	367.642	171	432.49178275866	12.09329259905	0.21097762632182	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-17 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	47.408	32.27	39.839	29.849626170562	0	0.63	0.99	1.62	F	F	15.408	369.408	171	433.28298716817	12.933335193034	0.20424101772322	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-17 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	46.85	32.396	39.623	29.669906756852	0.05511814	0.58511814	1.02	1.60511814	F	F	14.85	370.85	171	433.20782443656	12.853235757371	0.1887014409485	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-17 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	45.392	32.972	39.182	29.428855439353	0.04724412	0.67724412	1.05	1.72724412	F	F	13.392	366.392	171	433.10695742538	12.745842039849	0.15165303467145	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-17 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	47.426	34.016	40.721	28.188690986237	0.04724412	0.72724412	1.05	1.77724412	F	F	15.426	373.426	171	432.58703797481	12.194062338123	0.20475463519675	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-17 04:00:22	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	50.72	34.106	42.413	27.960743358447	0	0.39	0.94	1.33	F	F	18.72	374.72	171	432.49129620912	12.092778138065	0.31081961173853	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-17 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	49.262	33.422	41.342	25.786504213843	0.02362206	0.42362206	0.84	1.26362206	F	F	17.262	372.262	171	431.57528846018	11.128817994469	0.2610455309315	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-16 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	49.064	33.368	41.216	29.297725525748	0	0.32	0.87	1.19	F	F	17.064	374.064	171	433.05206066817	12.687440411815	0.25461573081627	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-16 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	43.736	30.812	37.274	31.549393535784	0	0.45	0.93	1.38	F	F	11.736	360.736	171	433.99217413191	13.692189893138	0.11584038767441	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-16 12:00:09	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	46.706	31.208	38.957	27.797919667414	0.00787402	0.31787402	0.85	1.16787402	F	F	14.706	367.706	171	432.42287362383	12.020456303347	0.18481244964438	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-16 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	46.994	32.648	39.821	27.84888997495	0.02362206	0.34362206	0.84	1.18362206	F	F	14.994	367.994	171	432.44429566396	12.04309361024	0.19264035969371	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-16 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	47.156	30.686	38.921	29.500681554373	0.05905515	0.51905515	0.92	1.43905515	F	F	15.156	365.156	171	433.13701925092	12.777837274332	0.19713108112041	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-16 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	45.374	31.316	38.345	31.051178667746	0.05511814	0.93511814	0.93	1.86511814	F	F	13.374	358.374	171	433.78462309302	13.469523834982	0.15122804727977	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-15 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	45.59	31.712	38.651	33.871116911118	0.05118113	0.79118113	0.94	1.73118113	F	F	13.59	360.59	171	434.95592316145	14.732442924585	0.15638011102895	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-15 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	47.498	31.604	39.551	32.963327986878	0	0.88	0.84	1.72	F	F	15.498	370.498	171	434.57977584721	14.325195687716	0.20681675864365	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-15 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	45.986	32.324	39.155	30.485909455861	0	0.79	0.91	1.7	F	F	13.986	366.986	171	433.54881965296	13.217130060635	0.16612154849339	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-15 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	46.166	33.314	39.74	30.037913561122	0	0.72	0.85	1.57	F	F	14.166	360.166	171	433.3616964271	13.017281177978	0.17067602819124	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-15 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	43.88	32.018	37.949	30.821422935493	0.07086618	0.57086618	0.92	1.49086618	F	F	11.88	353.88	171	433.68882076217	13.366906567106	0.11869342788681	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-15 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	47.462	32.756	40.109	28.515590475143	0.01574804	0.40574804	0.74	1.14574804	F	F	15.462	382.462	171	432.72424443987	12.339387343113	0.2057841672986	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-14 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	46.49	31.946	39.218	30.47336307185	0.03543309	0.39543309	0.73	1.12543309	F	F	14.49	380.49	171	433.54358205643	13.211530983476	0.17907294170979	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-14 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	45.536	33.152	39.344	31.964140814193	0.26377967	0.97377967	0.73	1.70377967	F	F	13.536	379.536	171	434.16475323824	13.877703309066	0.15508141270222	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-14 12:00:08	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	43.124	33.71	38.417	29.595422287719	0.29133874	0.92133874	0.86	1.78133874	F	F	11.124	380.124	171	433.17666328541	12.820046275117	0.10425716143679	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-14 09:17:01	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	43.556	34.484	39.02	28.845280444649	0.25984266	0.84984266	0.83	1.67984266	F	F	11.556	383.556	171	432.8625067866	12.486040402233	0.11234280930059	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-14 09:17:01	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	43.556	34.484	39.02	28.845280444649	0.25984266	0.84984266	0.83	1.67984266	F	F	11.556	383.556	171	432.8625067866	12.486040402233	0.11234280930059	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-14 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	43.304	33.134	38.219	121.40132596529	0.29133874	0.89133874	0.81	1.70133874	F	F	11.304	379.304	171	467.43821820515	56.747619496956	0.10757355635915	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-14 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	49.208	33.908	41.558	121.28323555302	0.01181103	0.69181103	0.77	1.46181103	F	F	17.208	390.208	171	467.39908037034	56.687672761823	0.25928371857942	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-14 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	51.638	34.088	42.863	129.4639184	0	0.45	0.66	1.11	F	F	19.638	394.638	171	470.08277173962	60.858757601743	0.34412467101519	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-13 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	50.594	33.638	42.116	135.47138043037	0	0.59	0.66	1.25	F	F	18.594	382.594	171	472.01832408247	63.944973951879	0.30635922709475	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2023-06-13 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	51.494	36.248	43.871	133.57750948749	0	0.25	0.66	0.91	F	F	19.494	389.494	171	471.41132001044	62.969950071205	0.33881122588187	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-13 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	53.42	38.372	45.896	131.55476624558	0	0.22	0.72	0.94	F	F	21.42	393.42	171	470.75977823699	61.93069258379	0.41212851015779	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-13 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	51.476	35.762	43.619	132.47426122747	0	0.24	0.75	0.99	F	F	19.476	389.476	171	471.05636993626	62.402844603801	0.33814926679456	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-13 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	51.962	37.076	44.519	132.27028377758	0	0.47	0.72	1.19	F	F	19.962	390.962	171	470.99063487888	62.29806493201	0.35619159297987	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-13 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	51.044	35.186	43.115	30.915101263283	0.07480319	0.12480319	1.14	1.26480319	F	F	19.044	372.044	171	433.72788900681	13.408741609356	0.32241619209839	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-12 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	54.842	38.714	46.778	34.554103246108	0	0.05	1.19	1.24	F	F	22.842	395.842	171	435.23835110244	15.03927092066	0.46847287859119	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2023-06-12 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	52.7	32.72	42.71	36.023475684579	0.07480319	1.71480319	1.45	3.16480319	T	F	20.7	393.7	171	435.84430640502	15.700626774043	0.38420318827629	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2023-06-12 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	50.864	31.532	41.198	35.840373511629	0	1.49	1.38	2.87	F	F	18.864	384.864	171	435.76892009198	15.618120860856	0.31595138698279	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2023-06-12 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	50.144	31.154	40.649	36.936786455258	0	1.52	1.41	2.93	F	F	18.144	375.144	171	436.21980900384	16.112557932728	0.29066544376345	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2023-06-12 04:00:19	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	54.194	30.848	42.521	32.770114316834	0	0.43	1.47	1.9	F	F	22.194	388.194	171	434.49960469857	14.238601716591	0.44264866646689	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-12 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	37.022	33.998	35.51	34.17162022691	0.21259854	0.68259854	1.54	2.22259854	F	F	5.022	357.022	171	435.08024740627	14.867396982597	0.03053059903777	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-11 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	36.824	35.258	36.041	38.829084117197	0.22440957	0.63440957	1.57	2.20440957	F	F	4.824	367.824	171	436.9950499388	16.968117552872	0.029175347531636	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2023-06-11 16:00:10	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	43.97	42.152	43.061	34.646298084591	0.01968505	0.28968505	1.4	1.68968505	F	F	11.97	389.97	171	435.27643791647	15.080717217253	0.12050151382358	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-11 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	36.158	31.838	33.998	29.476928	0	0.18	1.08	1.26	F	F	4.158	401.158	171	433.12707813671	12.767255697086	0.02497755897618	16	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2023-06-11 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	36.158	31.838	33.998	31.0092128	0	0.19	1.07	1.26	F	F	4.158	390.158	171	433.76712856037	13.450777195173	0.02497755897618	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2023-06-11 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	264	-21	36.554	35.942	36.248	31.347021624762	0	0.19	1.46	1.65	F	F	4.554	387.554	171	433.90789981075	13.601720318523	0.02740795056153	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L