MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, June 19, 2023

[ Sunday, June 18, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, June 20, 2023 ]

DAY 262 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/20/2023 04:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.94°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.83°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.031
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 400

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.46 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.84 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.72 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.56 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 27 in
SWE DAY: 169
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 430.92 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 11.74 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -23

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-06-20 04:00:13OBSERVATION2023262-2336.7100628.9432.8250327.2386713636360.459999999999920.839999999999920.721.5599999999999FF4.71006399.71006169430.92343608181 11.7377818583220.03144961221248616 1133127.5DRYL
2023-06-20 00:00:02FORECAST2023262-2236.35624.49430.42526.2235988848470.114173290.494173290.721.21417329FF4.356399.356170431.1273094425111.3057096311230.029020984749026161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-19 12:00:02FORECAST2023262-2236.53625.50231.01926.0363223783010.070866180.450866180.721.17086618FF4.536399.536170431.0479597499211.2229036405580.030235509643344161132125DRYL
2023-06-19 08:00:01FORECAST2023262-2236.51824.63830.57826.0367690015210.051181130.431181130.721.15118113FF4.518399.518170431.048149030611.2231010848430.030112196752895161132125DRYL
2023-06-19 04:00:15FORECAST2023262-2236.35624.72830.54225.9091578752770.07874020.45874020.721.1787402FF4.356399.356170430.9940581971311.1666930971360.029020984749026161132125DRYL
2023-06-19 00:00:03FORECAST2023262-2335.00624.94429.97528.4694440379460.145669370.425669370.721.14566937FF3.006397.006169431.4446168973612.2829883762330.021142104116742161122124DRYL
2023-06-18 20:00:02FORECAST2023262-2335.40224.54829.97527.366310805990.15748040.61748040.721.3374804FF3.402397.402169430.9775618080311.7942659068460.02324013184937161123126DRYL
2023-06-18 16:00:03FORECAST2023262-2335.67224.99830.33527.4052119407260.185039470.645039470.721.36503947FF3.672397.672169430.9940544127411.8114834063740.024768674579737161123126DRYL
2023-06-18 12:00:03FORECAST2023262-2336.44626.8731.65828.218874931670.15748040.61748040.721.3374804FF4.446398.446169431.3386433932512.171891231110.02962309606277161123126DRYL
2023-06-18 08:00:03FORECAST2023262-2334.26825.14229.70528.075602443370.177165450.507165450.721.22716545FF2.268394.268169431.2780186664412.1083901946430.017657427899011161123126DRYL
2023-06-18 04:00:12FORECAST2023262-2336.2327.10431.66727.6684168500380.192913490.542913490.721.26291349FF4.23398.23169431.105600501311.9280094610560.028195099664344161123126DRYL
2023-06-18 00:00:04FORECAST2023262-2336.08626.2431.16328.2839458717630.192913490.442913490.721.16291349FF4.086400.086169431.3661704106612.2007374148050.027275221218722161132125DRYL
2023-06-17 20:00:03FORECAST2023262-2336.2326.16831.19930.2501272447730.19685050.46685050.721.1868505FF4.23402.23169432.1957838127813.0739774549910.028195099664344161132125DRYL
2023-06-17 16:00:03FORECAST2023262-2336.84225.62831.23530.0932399000390.161417410.461417410.721.18141741FF4.842402.842169432.1297385423313.0041838898960.032396462743033161132125DRYL
2023-06-17 12:00:04FORECAST2023262-2335.40225.17830.2929.4125660811990.173228440.503228440.721.22322844FF3.402400.402169431.8428885332812.7016074956810.02324013184937161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-17 08:00:06FORECAST2023262-2337.27426.47431.87428.6548039250880.165354420.495354420.721.21535442FF5.274404.274169431.5229679951212.3652060370720.035662018308964161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-17 04:00:20FORECAST2023262-2337.0426.52831.78429.1671441852340.161417410.381417410.721.10141741FF5.04402.04169431.7393409724412.5926036085810.033861283694064161132125DRYL
2023-06-17 00:00:03FORECAST2023262-2336.62626.94231.78426.776415554830.141732360.331732360.650.98173236FF4.626401.626169430.7272687894411.5333323399030.03085835047024161132125DRYL
2023-06-16 20:00:03FORECAST2023262-2338.1226.85232.48630.4286083171420.094488240.314488240.650.96448824FF6.12402.12169432.2708874558313.1534015212970.042835384207987161132125DRYL
2023-06-16 16:00:04FORECAST2023262-2335.88824.83630.36231.2091363358420.125984320.405984320.651.05598432FF3.888397.888169432.5989287048913.501038944690.026051278943338161122124DRYL
2023-06-16 12:00:07FORECAST2023262-2336.17625.3430.75828.905008182090.137795350.337795350.650.98779535FF4.176399.176169431.6286701375712.4762302419510.027847171183384161132125DRYL
2023-06-16 08:00:04FORECAST2023262-2336.01425.5230.76729.0324212130030.145669370.335669370.650.98566937FF4.014398.014169431.6824716718212.5327873478460.026824728096566161122124DRYL
2023-06-16 04:00:11FORECAST2023262-2335.45625.12430.2929.5388140601650.086614220.356614220.651.00661422FF3.456397.456169431.8961295082112.7576994628480.023539337277365161122124DRYL
2023-06-16 00:00:05FORECAST2023262-2334.7924.58429.68730.2253867891050.129921330.389921330.671.05992133FF2.79393.79169432.1853705071413.0629699881710.020066701975395161122124DRYL
2023-06-15 20:00:06FORECAST2023262-2335.8725.66430.76732.1226767316810.094488240.384488240.651.03448824FF3.87394.87169432.9820474235813.9085423400090.02594232005916161122124DRYL
2023-06-15 16:00:04FORECAST2023262-2337.52626.11431.8231.680434007650.15748040.34748040.650.9974804FF5.526401.526169432.7966915762213.711187026210.037688013695795161132125DRYL
2023-06-15 12:00:04FORECAST2023262-2336.06825.82630.94730.3313953812380.106299270.366299270.651.01629927FF4.068401.068169432.2299851237713.1101385744160.027162011982846161132125DRYL
2023-06-15 08:00:05FORECAST2023262-2335.8726.85231.36130.379276586120.106299270.306299270.650.95629927FF3.87392.87169432.2501323976113.1314463264940.02594232005916161122124DRYL
2023-06-15 04:00:14FORECAST2023262-2333.56625.68229.62430.8706328761370.07874020.34874020.650.9987402FF1.566390.566169432.4567419269513.3502133148370.014809148880585161122124DRYL
2023-06-15 00:00:06FORECAST2023262-2339.81226.74433.27829.8068288158740.145669370.235669370.650.88566937FF7.812411.812169432.0090994277512.8768212735430.06064639832971161132125DRYL
2023-06-14 20:00:03FORECAST2023262-2339.4726.6933.0831.4713262825040.137795350.217795350.650.86779535FF7.47411.47169432.7089763658513.6179253805780.056644443429729161132125DRYL
2023-06-14 16:00:06FORECAST2023262-2341.07227.53634.30431.1562150399680.086614220.146614220.670.81661422FF9.072412.072169432.576707426313.4774529178550.07731327093786161132125DRYL
2023-06-14 12:00:07FORECAST2023262-2339.61429.0334.32230.4522662547660.161417410.371417410.651.02141741FF7.614412.614169432.2808400025513.1639312365920.058303448204892161132125DRYL
2023-06-14 09:17:01FORECAST2023262-2341.34230.97436.15829.7938633501710.15748040.33748040.650.9874804FF9.342416.342169432.0036361717312.8710573028770.081298506853818161132125DRYL
2023-06-14 09:17:00FORECAST2023262-2341.34230.97436.15829.7938633501710.15748040.33748040.650.9874804FF9.342416.342169432.0036361717312.8710573028770.081298506853818161132125DRYL
2023-06-14 08:00:04FORECAST2023262-2339.7428.38234.061122.246389710680.141732360.291732360.660.95173236FF7.74411.74169466.7247963407857.0554213411120.059786066222826161132125DRYL
2023-06-14 04:00:16FORECAST2023262-2339.84827.60833.728121.890634215430.141732360.251732360.660.91173236FF7.848415.848169466.6062103697556.8749269108290.06108016828708161132125DRYL
2023-06-14 00:00:06FORECAST2023262-2341.9927.8634.925131.60608640.059055150.059055150.660.71905515FF9.99416.99169469.8065299034361.8293987657550.091490409148295161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-13 20:00:04FORECAST2023262-2339.72227.33833.53136.435091189320.110236280.120236280.650.77023628FF7.722407.722169471.3680860685664.3111478064970.059572479172603161132125DRYL
2023-06-13 16:00:06FORECAST2023262-2341.05428.3134.682135.951212704690.047244120.047244120.660.70724412FF9.054410.054169471.2124762421664.06190758670.077052942483836161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-13 12:00:06FORECAST2023262-2342.00829.10235.555134.1423034840800.050.670.72FF10.008412.008169470.6290547418863.1312654896140.091786411085576161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-13 08:00:06FORECAST2023262-2341.3626.76234.061134.452397724120.015748040.085748040.680.76574804FF9.36412.36169470.7292588814463.2906775355070.08156958106368161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-13 04:00:11FORECAST2023262-2342.20628.20235.204134.040229523190.074803190.134803190.660.79480319FF10.206411.206169470.5960531982563.0788029833980.095089214990422161132125DRYL
2023-06-13 00:00:06FORECAST2023262-2341.23426.94234.08833.249233623990.007874020.497874020.651.14787402FF9.234394.234169433.4532781180414.4119893092310.079686267398219161123126DRYL
2023-06-12 20:00:06FORECAST2023262-2344.4229.01236.71637.9008840461080.007874020.547874020.651.19787402FF12.42410.42169435.3848145159916.5014693704070.13808841501463161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-12 16:00:05FORECAST2023262-2341.07228.86834.9736.5944987657760.303149771.073149770.681.75314977FF9.072416.072169434.8446579195715.9129222975420.077313270937861611341210DRYL
2023-06-12 12:00:04FORECAST2023262-2338.26427.66232.96335.6190411591810.358267911.058267910.681.73826791FF6.264409.264169434.4401609457715.4743419739290.0441649477011191611341210DRYL
2023-06-12 08:00:06FORECAST2023262-2337.77827.26632.52236.9605803209650.35433091.07433090.691.7643309FF5.778399.778169434.9962039964616.0777121371260.0398067063491831611341210DRYL
2023-06-12 04:00:18FORECAST2023262-2338.04829.5733.80933.814331006560.259842661.069842660.661.72984266FF6.048412.048169433.6891469674414.664908369510.0421827991842411611341210DRYL
2023-06-12 00:00:03FORECAST2023262-2337.74227.44632.59433.9401409070980.267716681.047716680.761.80771668FF5.742394.742169433.7416133357514.7212514738870.039498253947887161124128DRYL
2023-06-11 20:00:07FORECAST2023262-2338.8427.82433.33237.9796385057630.23622060.98622060.821.8062206FF6.84403.84169435.417320205616.5369924205570.049818062876457161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-11 16:00:09FORECAST2023262-2341.9929.69635.84336.2347037727920.19685050.64685050.951.5968505FF9.99408.99169434.6955769099415.7510654606750.091490409148295161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-11 12:00:06FORECAST2023262-2348.66834.91641.79230.87450320.047244120.347244120.781.12724412FF16.668429.668169432.4583683291913.3519372768460.25299516087916162132126DRYL
2023-06-11 08:00:06FORECAST2023262-2346.72433.27840.00132.1716120.047244120.347244120.771.11724412FF14.724421.724169433.0025447225113.9303898638250.19516525144959161132125DRYL
2023-06-11 04:00:12FORECAST2023262-2344.8733.22439.04733.1159584247620.125984320.605984320.981.58598432FF12.87410.87169433.3976003537514.3523769147060.14823599417338161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-11 00:00:07FORECAST2023262-2350.01835.1542.58431.0756175420120.137795350.507795350.81.30779535FF18.018431.018169432.5428593666913.4415364682070.29790069087219162133129DRYL
2023-06-10 20:00:07FORECAST2023262-2349.96435.81642.8932.1430947347190.090551230.460551230.791.25055123FF17.964430.964169432.9906001317513.9176578792780.29603678791316162132126DRYL
2023-06-10 16:00:07FORECAST2023262-2346.61635.07840.84732.9873748109130.122047310.452047310.791.24204731FF14.616421.616169433.3438647040214.2948764870010.19220665542746161132125DRYL
2023-06-10 12:00:05FORECAST2023262-2347.49832.0939.79432.9652665351790.389763990.529763990.621.14976399FF15.498418.498169433.3346237914314.2849913722060.21716567784772161133127.5DRYL
2023-06-10 08:00:08FORECAST2023262-2350.37834.37642.37730.464701674840.389763990.499763990.621.11976399FF18.378438.378169432.2860711612613.1694661961170.310460942192162133129DRYL
2023-06-10 04:00:15FORECAST2023262-2360.20634.9747.58830.1626767500200.080.530.61FF28.206441.206169432.1589727987713.035071401150.68636646376998163131123.5DRYL
2023-06-10 00:00:07FORECAST2023262-2335.45631.06433.2630.812196800.060.570.63FF3.456426.456169432.4321837531813.3241855484570.023539337277365161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-09 20:00:09FORECAST2023262-2335.67231.06433.36833.632596800.060.590.65FF3.672421.672169433.6133289379214.5835422592750.024768674579737161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-09 16:00:06FORECAST2023262-2338.04827.1432.59432.466261600.250.590.84FF6.048440.048169433.1259094549214.0619790821010.042182799184241161132125DRYL
2023-06-09 12:00:04FORECAST2023262-2347.24639.18243.21432.374060800.020.590.61FF15.246440.246169433.0873164865114.0207951156430.20985035165202161131122.5DRYL
2023-06-09 08:00:06FORECAST2023262-2345.66236.5941.12630.701359200.180.620.8FF13.662455.662169432.3855934539613.2748254175350.16727609252832161132125DRYL
2023-06-09 04:00:10FORECAST2023262-2343.01642.67442.84530.01289165714300.40.841.24FF11.016454.016169432.0959039428412.9684475505320.10950997931546161132125DRYL