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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 21, 2023

[ Wednesday, December 20, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, December 22, 2023 ]

DAY 82 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/22/2023 07:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.61°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.73°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.67°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.942
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 165

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.48 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 14.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 14.51 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 53 in
SWE DAY: 11
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 312.93 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 16.64 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 162

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-22 07:00:08OBSERVATION20248216246.6100634.7300640.6700653.1741062500.4814.0314.51TT14.61006164.6100611312.93183788872 16.6398707969030.94190111014216 5112127WETL
2023-12-22 03:00:05OBSERVATION20248216246.6100634.7300640.6700653.1741062500.4814.0314.51TT14.61006164.6100611312.93183788872 16.6398707969030.94190111014216 5112127WETL
2023-12-21 11:00:01FORECAST20248216238.78631.9135.34853.686399200.4814.0314.51TT6.786156.78611313.3024041798216.8200779411180.76179739873061164112126WETL
2023-12-21 07:00:07FORECAST20248216238.69632.14435.4253.7133739500.4814.0314.51TT6.696156.69611313.3219029622816.8295765405390.75873156828644164112126WETL
2023-12-21 03:00:06FORECAST20248216238.3932.12635.25853.6786387500.4814.0314.51TT6.39156.3911313.2967942667916.817345440980.74814946736339164112126WETL
2023-12-20 23:00:01FORECAST20248216239.34431.22635.28555.69643600.4814.0314.51TT7.344150.34411314.7517124822517.5305486101580.78032181297702164112126WETL
2023-12-20 19:00:01FORECAST20248216238.78631.92835.35755.676362400.4814.0314.51TT6.786149.78611314.7372752483117.5234265975140.76179739873061164112126WETL
2023-12-20 15:00:01FORECAST20248216239.41631.92835.67255.63641200.4814.0314.51TT7.416150.41611314.7085401315417.5092539986770.78265040365048164112126WETL
2023-12-20 11:00:02FORECAST20248216239.14632.12635.63655.41796400.4814.0314.51TT7.146150.14611314.551365506417.4317962497840.77384497755377164112126WETL
2023-12-20 07:00:03FORECAST20248216239.4733.0836.27554.736421400.4814.0314.51TT7.47151.4711314.0604307166717.1905440807730.78438747145956164112126WETL
2023-12-20 03:00:05FORECAST20248216238.91231.87435.39354.985078200.4814.0314.51TT6.912149.91211314.2396438593517.2784913911460.76605352097521164112126WETL
2023-12-19 23:00:02FORECAST20248216239.43433.00836.22155.220967200.6914.0314.72TT7.434147.43411314.4095503425317.3619994668310.78323032059319164113129WETL
2023-12-19 19:00:02FORECAST20248216239.0232.41435.71755.244681600.6914.0314.72TT7.02147.0211314.4266257552917.3703988264130.76966789343884164113129WETL
2023-12-19 15:00:01FORECAST20248216238.04832.95435.50155.354889600.6914.0314.72TT6.048145.04811314.5059668752817.4094430749220.73603906487403164113129WETL
2023-12-19 11:00:03FORECAST20248216238.49832.12635.31257.04408672303100.6914.0314.72TT6.498145.49811315.7192814131418.0099180690640.75191203639777164113129WETL
2023-12-19 07:00:05FORECAST20248216238.94832.93635.94257.35061925531300.7114.0314.74TT6.948145.94811315.9388997338318.1192915465770.76726178482634164113129WETL
2023-12-19 03:00:03FORECAST20248216239.05632.6335.84357.11986790808500.6114.0314.64TT7.056146.05611315.7735915187618.0369458364130.77086572095882164113129WETL
2023-12-18 23:00:02FORECAST20248216238.82232.4535.63657.62509399947200.5614.2514.81TT6.822136.82211316.1354048777118.2173324226390.76301773771996164113129WETL
2023-12-18 19:00:01FORECAST20248216239.4731.9135.6957.54257149470500.5914.2514.84TT7.47139.4711316.0763388104318.1878453237840.78438747145956164113129WETL
2023-12-18 15:00:03FORECAST20248216239.79433.29636.54557.07140641140800.4914.2514.74TT7.794139.79411315.7388618205918.0196609028380.79463980651848164112126WETL
2023-12-18 11:00:01FORECAST20248216239.05632.01835.53757.12588663315400.4314.2514.68TT7.056138.05611315.7779045106618.0390927743310.77086572095882164112126WETL
2023-12-18 07:00:04FORECAST20248216239.66831.8235.74456.91501448321400.4514.314.75TT7.668139.66811315.6267551355617.963901339830.79068757528747164112126WETL
2023-12-18 03:00:04FORECAST20248216240.44232.50436.47356.51456144550300.4814.2714.75TT8.442141.44211315.3394946336517.8212732456670.8142566783858164112126WETL
2023-12-17 23:00:03FORECAST20248216238.9331.51435.22257.24352597052700.5514.1614.71TT6.93127.9311315.8621911046418.0810655396060.7666580861194164113129WETL
2023-12-17 19:00:02FORECAST20248216238.49833.11635.80756.44793679533900.5514.0714.62TT6.498126.49811315.2916738306417.7975644764890.75191203639777164113129WETL
2023-12-17 15:00:02FORECAST20248216238.33631.31634.82656.839733374500.4114.1314.54TT6.336125.33611315.5727753740817.9370724125140.74625696486185164112126WETL
2023-12-17 11:00:02FORECAST20248216238.2131.40634.80856.31747087687600.3814.1414.52TT6.21124.2111315.1980065943217.7511545568250.74181229690056164112126WETL
2023-12-17 07:00:04FORECAST20248216237.97630.2934.13356.92142937671600.4314.214.63TT5.976122.97611315.6313544102117.9661878491380.7334522552869164112126WETL
2023-12-17 03:00:07FORECAST20248216236.01428.95832.48657.36023059226100.5614.1114.67TT4.014117.01411315.9457831085918.1227229737610.65843513766371163113127.5WETL
2023-12-16 23:00:02FORECAST20248216234.8828.47231.67658.83057483039400.6414.0614.7TT2.88112.8811316.9968264205718.6491055177330.61175031379994163113127.5WETL
2023-12-16 19:00:02FORECAST20248216235.40231.0133.20658.42354837635500.614.114.7TT3.402114.40211316.7062652909718.5031038113220.63348835686968163113127.5WETL
2023-12-16 15:00:02FORECAST20248216234.71828.81431.76659.10678217267100.714.1114.81TT2.718112.71811317.1938296053518.7483065929990.60492858603957163113127.5WETL
2023-12-16 11:00:03FORECAST20248216235.56429.24632.40558.59795266175600.6514.1514.8TT3.564113.56411316.8308028412818.5656363866790.64015216177476163113127.5WETL
2023-12-16 07:00:06FORECAST20248216237.59830.14633.87257.11288728857900.5114.1114.62TT5.598120.59811315.7685891549518.0344558416810.71966480764803164113129WETL
2023-12-16 03:00:05FORECAST20248216235.22228.00431.61358.46295007693300.4914.1314.62TT3.222111.22211316.7344058415918.5172277563640.62603674438668163112125WETL
2023-12-15 23:00:03FORECAST20248216239.54234.32236.93257.29159531244500.6314.1214.75TT7.542111.54211315.8966247270418.0982215844290.78669101716004164113129WETL
2023-12-15 19:00:02FORECAST20248216235.3330.4732.958.89878200441400.6614.1614.82TT3.33111.3311317.0454876188418.6735930607450.63051356425807163113127.5WETL
2023-12-15 15:00:04FORECAST20248216238.0331.94634.98859.73280452567900.8314.1514.98TT6.03112.0311317.6398249002618.9735175703380.73539356240983164113129WETL
2023-12-15 11:00:06FORECAST20248216236.37429.96633.1760.10066563767100.8214.2415.06TT4.374107.37411317.9015685208319.1060958753610.67280104073548163113127.5WETL
2023-12-15 07:00:06FORECAST20248216233.78228.92231.35260.5179723710400.8114.2115.02TT1.78298.78211318.1981981716119.2567097654640.56494528160931163113127.5WETL
2023-12-15 03:00:05FORECAST20248216235.47429.6632.56758.94832870800400.814.1614.96TT3.474108.47411317.0808305496718.6913850262490.63645515470794163113127.5WETL
2023-12-14 23:00:03FORECAST20248216234.75430.63232.69360.20362829141200.7914.1914.98TT2.75497.75411317.9747855754919.1432357968280.60644738790321163113127.5WETL
2023-12-14 19:00:04FORECAST20248216235.83432.01833.92660.04417252449900.7514.1614.91TT3.834100.83411317.8613879610719.0857240176110.65116358305092163113127.5WETL
2023-12-14 15:00:03FORECAST20248216238.87630.57834.72759.62543378556200.7314.2414.97TT6.876103.87611317.5633814510818.9348543734310.76484179581007164113129WETL
2023-12-14 11:00:04FORECAST20248216239.6528.74234.19657.37540534264300.6314.3114.94TT7.65103.6511315.9566505046918.1281408934110.79011934618532164113129WETL
2023-12-14 07:00:06FORECAST20248216238.06628.72433.39558.22784208202500.6214.4115.03TT6.066106.06611316.5664508285118.4329813073090.73668376485885164113129WETL
2023-12-14 03:00:07FORECAST20248216243.17831.58637.38259.14421901048400.6414.3514.99TT11.178114.17811317.220520564818.7617599429050.883738251724591651131210.5WETL
2023-12-13 23:00:03FORECAST20248216239.52433.42236.47361.35744471791800.4714.2614.73TT7.52484.52411318.7939596838819.5603827577090.78611647734686164112126WETL
2023-12-13 19:00:04FORECAST20248216239.32634.26836.79760.78982061019800.4814.2714.75TT7.32689.32611318.3912640719519.3549478267880.77973743905749164112126WETL
2023-12-13 15:00:05FORECAST20248216237.23832.86435.05160.2451186601350.015748040.2457480414.3314.57574804TT5.23892.23811318.0042840900219.1582058294350.70622124224535164112126WETL
2023-12-13 11:00:04FORECAST20248216234.84429.98432.41464.2935814693130.1267717220.90677172214.4815.386771722TT2.84480.84411320.8677306969620.6297355844380.61023726845854163113127.5WETL
2023-12-13 07:00:06FORECAST20248216234.71829.6632.18964.01800528886300.7814.4815.26TT2.71879.71811320.6737503389220.5288938451960.60492858603957163113127.5WETL
2023-12-13 03:00:05FORECAST20248216234.71828.95831.83863.11916681860100.6714.3815.05TT2.71877.71811320.0401059832320.2006648381980.60492858603957163113127.5WETL
2023-12-12 23:00:04FORECAST20248216236.91430.52433.71961.99279592058500.3114.2614.57TT4.91483.91411319.2440155482119.7908291047490.69387319235635163112125WETL
2023-12-12 19:00:04FORECAST20248216236.48231.33433.90861.52199233143500.2514.2314.48TT4.48283.48211318.9105879411819.6200147457310.67706259769048163112125WETL
2023-12-12 15:00:04FORECAST20248216235.54627.15831.35266.3186928301980.3255907271.10559072714.115.205590727TT3.54679.54611322.289065880921.3737895626870.639413795166561631141210WETL
2023-12-12 11:00:04FORECAST20248216239.88428.1334.00760.59538523277201.0814.0115.09TT7.88484.88411318.2531901578919.2846746591760.797435549672471641141212WETL
2023-12-12 07:00:06FORECAST20248216233.7127.26630.48864.20910097748601.0814.0615.14TT1.7176.7111320.8082786097620.5988111556680.561836380484511631141210WETL
2023-12-12 03:00:06FORECAST20248216232.75626.07829.41765.94920948727200.8614.2115.07TT0.75669.75611322.0302870003121.237642858630.52035640950202163113127.5WETL
2023-12-11 23:00:05FORECAST20248216229.60622.67626.14169.47102013520.0137795350.90377953514.2215.123779535TT-2.39472.60611324.4870469362222.5424461713180.38427997640754162113126WETL
2023-12-11 19:00:05FORECAST20248216228.9422.6425.7970.1841151376150.0137795350.87377953514.1815.053779535TT-3.0663.9411324.9818210208622.808561544160.3567097041456162113126WETL
2023-12-11 15:00:04FORECAST20248216229.7527.24828.49967.6049349096570.0818898080.59188980814.0214.611889808TT-2.2566.7511323.1880326422221.8491059103570.39032444887835162113126WETL
2023-12-11 11:00:04FORECAST20248216234.9730.5632.76567.6456452145700.3814.4114.79TT2.9770.9711323.216437537821.8641844611990.61552547032148163112125WETL
2023-12-11 07:00:08FORECAST20248216234.9730.5632.76568.01871750805700.4714.4514.92TT2.9776.9711323.4766053899822.0024638424860.61552547032148163112125WETL
2023-12-11 03:00:07FORECAST20248216232.93632.1832.55866.74977482254500.4314.4214.85TT0.93670.93611322.590680437521.5328552790550.52821354696197163112125WETL