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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, December 22, 2023

[ Thursday, December 21, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, December 23, 2023 ]

DAY 83 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/23/2023 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.87°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.83°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.35°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.753
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 159

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.52 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.52 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 12.51 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 56 in
SWE DAY: 10
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 270.48 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 16.75 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 163

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-23 07:00:03OBSERVATION20248316337.8699820.8299229.3499500.519999999999980.5199999999999812.5113.03TT5.86998158.8699810270.4813288029 00.7530196406330216 41135245WETL
2023-12-23 03:00:03OBSERVATION20248316337.8699820.8299229.3499500.519999999999980.5199999999999812.5113.03TT5.86998158.8699810270.4813288029 00.7530196406330216 41135245WETL
2023-12-22 11:00:02FORECAST20248316331.69417.2424.46754.566276454480.4377955120.43779551212.5112.947795512TT-0.306152.69410312.8566283783817.0714212747110.47994365961369162112124WETL
2023-12-22 07:00:09FORECAST20248316332.03619.38225.70954.6799777528670.4263781830.42637818312.5112.936378183TT0.036000000000001153.03610312.9389373880217.1114941343830.49615704843047162112124WETL
2023-12-22 03:00:05FORECAST20248316332.73819.54426.14154.8523015069380.4775593130.47755931312.5112.987559313TT0.738153.73810313.0636382176917.1722610743760.52942760064505163112125WETL
2023-12-21 23:00:02FORECAST20248316332.32420.31826.32155.8798308858760.4996065690.49960656912.5113.009606569TT0.324145.32410313.8060703842617.5354301440340.50981644908084163113127.5WETL
2023-12-21 19:00:01FORECAST20248316332.55821.14626.85255.7325547939780.4866144360.48661443612.5112.996614436TT0.558145.55810313.6997762852217.4832899706750.52090697724649163112125WETL
2023-12-21 15:00:01FORECAST20248316333.00819.9426.47455.926016546220.5456695860.54566958612.5113.055669586TT1.008146.00810313.8393959364617.5517872499980.54218210435751163113127.5WETL
2023-12-21 11:00:01FORECAST20248316333.69219.27426.48355.4124938227540.5086616920.50866169212.5113.018661692TT1.692146.69210313.4686403913817.3700790993140.57427029910028163113127.5WETL
2023-12-21 07:00:07FORECAST20248316334.2520.1227.18555.2736405497590.4598427680.45984276812.5112.969842768TT2.25147.2510313.3683073672617.3210071811040.6000977235622163112125WETL
2023-12-21 03:00:07FORECAST20248316333.819.59826.69955.3870856496820.4755908080.47559080812.5112.985590808TT1.8145.810313.4502835207617.3610977002820.57929775944763163112125WETL
2023-12-20 23:00:02FORECAST20248316332.7218.33825.52957.6675499121660.4980317650.49803176512.5113.008031765TT0.72138.7210315.0931614700518.1706506160560.52857607963719163113127.5WETL
2023-12-20 19:00:02FORECAST20248316333.0818.53625.80857.7226848845850.5192916190.51929161912.5113.029291619TT1.08139.0810315.1327637669718.1903092197290.54557652870851163113127.5WETL
2023-12-20 15:00:02FORECAST20248316334.48420.08427.28457.8666111253870.586614490.5866144912.5113.09661449TT2.484140.48410315.2361168426318.241645786010.61080645482502163113127.5WETL
2023-12-20 11:00:02FORECAST20248316334.93420.06627.557.4900301366980.5456695860.54566958612.5113.055669586TT2.934140.93410314.965615048418.1073827011560.63115902727871163113127.5WETL
2023-12-20 07:00:03FORECAST20248316334.721.07427.88756.5088831750780.4748034060.47480340612.5112.984803406TT2.7141.710314.2596311790817.7584607849420.62061750823194163112125WETL
2023-12-20 03:00:05FORECAST20248316334.6120.6627.63557.1491045209080.5586617190.55866171912.5113.068661719TT2.61140.6110314.7205016038717.9859948410320.6165385966053163113127.5WETL
2023-12-19 23:00:02FORECAST20248316333.22419.45426.33957.8751828314740.6090554470.60905544712.7213.329055447TT1.224136.22410315.2422709714318.2447040686810.55235515719826163113127.5WETL
2023-12-19 19:00:02FORECAST20248316333.45819.05826.25858.0995576362280.6625987830.66259878312.7213.382598783TT1.458136.45810315.4033151093918.3247930848560.56333702644543163113127.5WETL
2023-12-19 15:00:02FORECAST20248316333.33220.71427.02357.8814242357320.5696853470.56968534712.7213.289685347TT1.332134.33210315.2467519560418.2469309889040.55742922333329163113127.5WETL
2023-12-19 11:00:03FORECAST20248316334.55623.61229.08458.3793555487320.3476379830.34763798312.7213.067637983TT2.556135.55610315.6040104213218.4247587369920.6140850047835163112125WETL
2023-12-19 07:00:05FORECAST20248316333.85422.47828.16657.9595919974310.1830709650.18307096512.7412.923070965TT1.854135.85410315.3028660894418.2748254741650.5818067021965163112125WETL
2023-12-19 03:00:03FORECAST20248316334.4321.77628.10357.7736773273210.1866142740.18661427412.6412.826614274TT2.43136.4310315.1693856352118.2084943891380.60834234226511163112125WETL
2023-12-18 23:00:02FORECAST20248316334.05222.69428.37358.6742834592750.2708662880.27086628812.8113.080866288TT2.052127.05210315.8154039267618.5302425308040.59097697211555163112125WETL
2023-12-18 19:00:02FORECAST20248316333.96222.96428.46359.2243024331590.4165356580.41653565812.8413.256535658TT1.962128.96210316.2092145519118.7272701547740.58681451736762163112125WETL
2023-12-18 15:00:03FORECAST20248316335.9624.99830.47957.3330022308730.106299270.1062992712.7412.84629927TT3.96131.9610314.8527439118818.0514530690960.67613338589818163112125WETL
2023-12-18 11:00:02FORECAST20248316334.4323.2728.8557.0381138331540012.6812.68TT2.43128.4310314.6406574200117.9465096344610.60834234226511163111122.5WETL
2023-12-18 07:00:04FORECAST20248316334.30423.03628.6758.1595467524660.3472442820.34724428212.7513.097244282TT2.304130.30410315.4463565153818.3462171196510.60257597985213163112125WETL
2023-12-18 03:00:05FORECAST20248316336.53625.6131.07356.3191390455030012.7512.75TT4.536133.53610314.1228977313517.6911311547080.70034759259428164111123WETL
2023-12-17 23:00:04FORECAST20248316333.823.3628.5858.1573632295810.2232284670.22322846712.7112.933228467TT1.8117.810315.4447899812918.3454372298210.57929775944763163112125WETL
2023-12-17 19:00:02FORECAST20248316334.12423.75628.9457.7442954721450.3062993780.30629937812.6212.926299378TT2.124116.12410315.1482846869318.1980156685010.59429959032244163112125WETL
2023-12-17 15:00:02FORECAST20248316333.00824.69228.8557.0194447627830.0374015950.03740159512.5412.577401595TT1.008114.00810314.6272251024917.9398696825990.54218210435751163111122.5WETL
2023-12-17 11:00:03FORECAST20248316332.37823.7228.04957.7232555633730.2948820490.29488204912.5212.814882049TT0.378112.37810315.133173644618.1905127187840.51237678832782163112125WETL
2023-12-17 07:00:05FORECAST20248316331.49623.97227.73458.1060256485040.2496064340.24960643412.6312.879606434TT-0.504110.49610315.4079561390218.3271027891560.47057038646079162112124WETL
2023-12-17 03:00:07FORECAST20248316331.33424.11627.72557.8398597288040.0980315490.09803154912.6712.768031549TT-0.666104.33410315.2169095898518.2321018348240.46291321942453162112124WETL
2023-12-16 23:00:02FORECAST20248316330.81223.0926.95159.430365885780.0925197350.09251973512.712.792519735TT-1.18899.81210316.356613260818.8011892764750.43834754154855162112124WETL
2023-12-16 19:00:03FORECAST20248316332.2725.05228.66158.9424293931610.0858268180.08582681812.712.785826818TT0.27102.2710316.007463701418.6262476169320.50725570528245163111122.5WETL
2023-12-16 15:00:03FORECAST20248316330.77621.88426.3362.080055493570.4771656120.47716561212.8113.287165612TT-1.22499.77610318.2450977507319.7566733289220.43666098065699162112124WETL
2023-12-16 11:00:03FORECAST20248316331.78422.44227.11360.7605586857090.3574805080.35748050812.813.157480508TT-0.216101.78410317.3062558278319.2797053785690.48420822076251162112124WETL
2023-12-16 07:00:06FORECAST20248316335.02425.50230.26358.982280621650.3527560960.35275609612.6212.972756096TT3.024112.02410316.0359960175618.640523803650.63518782854816163112125WETL
2023-12-16 03:00:05FORECAST20248316331.74825.50228.62560.6651831873450.3594490130.35944901312.6212.979449013TT-0.25298.74810317.2382727023819.2453179275270.48250215213907162112124WETL
2023-12-15 23:00:04FORECAST20248316337.20227.46432.33360.042729732840.5287404430.52874044312.7513.278740443TT5.202105.20210316.7941866290619.0211877287040.7272748085601164113129WETL
2023-12-15 19:00:02FORECAST20248316335.67227.531.58661.8764296518910.5456695860.54566958612.8213.365669586TT3.672102.67210318.1004201289119.6829182683430.66373220851048163113127.5WETL
2023-12-15 15:00:04FORECAST20248316335.2429.71432.47760.3190706049950.1523622870.15236228712.9813.132362287TT3.24103.2410316.9914272039219.1206282786920.64479553302806163112125WETL
2023-12-15 11:00:06FORECAST20248316337.00430.63233.81859.8884168376710013.0613.06TT5.004100.00410316.6839842734518.9657024559830.71939591020082164111123WETL
2023-12-15 07:00:06FORECAST20248316335.94230.54233.24260.378244371040013.0213.02TT3.94290.94210317.0336449732919.1419348900390.6753638295123163111122.5WETL
2023-12-15 03:00:05FORECAST20248316337.25630.48833.87258.7141367080040012.9612.96TT5.256101.25610315.8439571299918.5445052773270.72940441195392164111123WETL
2023-12-14 23:00:03FORECAST20248316334.46629.10231.78460.1183154914120012.9812.98TT2.46688.46610316.8481503429119.0483770651850.60998557345535163111122.5WETL
2023-12-14 19:00:04FORECAST20248316335.99629.91232.95459.8245437244990012.9112.91TT3.99692.99610316.6383567306118.9427452170840.67767024107294163111122.5WETL
2023-12-14 15:00:03FORECAST20248316336.0530.9233.48559.3898641855620012.9712.97TT4.0596.0510316.3276481868918.7866560639570.67996983833288163111122.5WETL
2023-12-14 11:00:04FORECAST20248316336.37429.89433.13457.4514505672770.0555118410.05551184112.9412.995511841TT4.37496.37410314.9378883535918.0936385245090.69362022257021163111122.5WETL
2023-12-14 07:00:07FORECAST20248316335.16830.16432.66658.1033660820250.0240157610.02401576113.0313.054015761TT3.16897.16810315.4060478143918.3261530606440.64160282168362163111122.5WETL
2023-12-14 03:00:08FORECAST20248316339.05633.11636.08658.5914078104840012.9912.99TT7.056109.05610315.7560176989218.5005896016120.79533497790334164111123WETL
2023-12-13 23:00:04FORECAST20248316335.16830.68632.92761.1800295179180012.7312.73TT3.16876.16810317.6050568839919.4310867552030.64160282168362163111122.5WETL
2023-12-13 19:00:04FORECAST20248316335.02430.25432.63960.6497974101980012.7512.75TT3.02480.02410317.2273042631319.2397717365420.63518782854816163111122.5WETL
2023-12-13 15:00:05FORECAST20248316335.18624.90830.04760.13924026013500.0212.5612.58TT3.18683.18610316.8630875461419.0559053515050.64240193791224163111122.5WETL
2023-12-13 11:00:04FORECAST20248316335.52818.37426.95165.1771498310140.1566929980.49669299813.0513.546692998TT3.52872.52810320.4364060956720.8851316514090.6574631183878163113127.5WETL
2023-12-13 07:00:06FORECAST20248316334.57427.42831.00165.0110594117630.1610237090.37102370913.0513.421023709TT2.57470.57410320.3193279281620.8242988586730.61490338117062163112125WETL
2023-12-13 03:00:05FORECAST20248316332.55825.0728.81472.6612839821631.2397644491.42976444912.8614.289764449TT0.55866.55810325.6610888201223.6629528566990.520906977246491631141210WETL
2023-12-12 23:00:04FORECAST20248316333.06229.8431.45161.97744552058500.0312.5412.57TT1.06273.06210318.1722019815719.7195003144770.54472822476274163111122.5WETL
2023-12-12 19:00:04FORECAST20248316334.80827.17630.99261.4662979314350012.4812.48TT2.80873.80810317.8087913603819.5345298549870.62549450720077163111122.5WETL
2023-12-12 15:00:04FORECAST20248316330.57827.8629.21970.4241348878460.4614175721.09141757212.5813.671417572TT-1.42266.57810324.1097261495922.8251470728220.42740626485925162114128WETL
2023-12-12 11:00:05FORECAST20248316331.87430.77631.32561.2986676561060.0811024060.52110240612.6513.171102406TT-0.12672.87410317.6895084812919.4739435982260.48847458908106162113126WETL
2023-12-12 07:00:07FORECAST20248316330.09226.56428.32865.0398801889460.0811024060.51110240612.7113.221102406TT-1.90863.09210320.3396474147920.8348522876270.40486884460293162113126WETL
2023-12-12 03:00:06FORECAST20248316331.44230.88431.16365.94920948727200.2112.8613.07TT-0.55857.44210320.9799877862621.1683764557380.46801664713244162112124WETL