MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 20, 2023

[ Tuesday, December 19, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, December 21, 2023 ]

DAY 81 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/21/2023 07:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.14°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.902
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 154

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.55 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 15.40 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.95 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 54 in
SWE DAY: 12
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 314.67 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 17.02 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 161

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-21 07:00:06OBSERVATION20248116145.4600435.1399240.2999854.0894587500.5515.415.95TT13.46004154.4600412314.67193208208 17.0204344901370.9023117807073816 51131210.5WETL
2023-12-21 03:00:05OBSERVATION20248116145.4600435.1399240.2999854.0894587500.5515.415.95TT13.46004154.4600412314.67193208208 17.0204344901370.9023117807073816 51131210.5WETL
2023-12-20 11:00:01FORECAST20248116138.330.9234.6155.793163200.5515.415.95TT6.3147.312315.8949277481217.6247772579030.69511356346371163113127.5WETL
2023-12-20 07:00:02FORECAST20248116139.00232.01835.5155.217203800.5515.415.95TT7.002148.00212315.4820702100817.4200377660360.72148652108133164113129WETL
2023-12-20 03:00:05FORECAST20248116138.08431.60434.84455.324361400.5515.415.95TT6.084147.08412315.5589283479517.4580961949190.68678131817302163113127.5WETL
2023-12-19 23:00:02FORECAST20248116139.95631.51435.73555.631885600.7615.416.16TT7.956143.95612315.7793820862317.567402459060.7554460070449164113129WETL
2023-12-19 19:00:01FORECAST20248116139.70431.85635.7855.62460400.7615.416.16TT7.704143.70412315.7741641426717.5648128338670.74669733223556164113129WETL
2023-12-19 15:00:01FORECAST20248116138.5883235.29455.698207200.7615.416.16TT6.588142.58812315.8269032380517.5909922958870.70606727370847164113129WETL
2023-12-19 11:00:03FORECAST20248116138.98431.60435.29457.42046672303100.7615.416.16TT6.984142.98412317.0581480260818.2056268379970.72082438302806164113129WETL
2023-12-19 07:00:05FORECAST20248116138.94832.50435.72657.73634725531300.7815.416.18TT6.948142.94812317.283387338318.3187838297060.71949781846304164113129WETL
2023-12-19 03:00:03FORECAST20248116138.4831.13634.80857.54741590808500.6815.416.08TT6.48143.4812317.148691143818.2510876339570.70198094789471164113129WETL
2023-12-18 23:00:02FORECAST20248116138.76830.84834.80858.00570519947200.8515.416.25TT6.768133.76812317.4753109139818.4153792929870.71281967169626164113129WETL
2023-12-18 19:00:01FORECAST20248116139.77631.24435.5157.94099309470500.8815.416.28TT7.776135.77612317.4292140711218.3921639005520.74921360292528164113129WETL
2023-12-18 15:00:03FORECAST20248116139.9563235.97857.51686321140800.7815.416.18TT7.956135.95612317.1269029160518.240144695680.7554460070449164113129WETL
2023-12-18 11:00:01FORECAST20248116139.00231.02835.01557.45552663315400.7215.416.12TT7.002135.00212317.0831564893618.2181797425990.72148652108133164113129WETL
2023-12-18 07:00:04FORECAST20248116138.96631.83835.40257.27968488321400.7915.416.19TT6.966135.96612316.9577049897918.1552374631220.72016148159169164113129WETL
2023-12-18 03:00:04FORECAST20248116139.52431.02835.27656.98589744550300.7915.416.19TT7.524136.52412316.7479819645918.0501680163040.74034913805571164113129WETL
2023-12-17 23:00:03FORECAST20248116139.0230.70434.86257.55033717052700.7515.416.15TT7.02125.0212317.1507743126418.2521339955860.72214789406857164113129WETL
2023-12-17 19:00:02FORECAST20248116139.03832.55835.79856.86269279533900.6615.416.06TT7.038124.03812316.6599845368518.0061394212960.72280850031471164113129WETL
2023-12-17 15:00:02FORECAST20248116138.01231.08234.54757.059755774500.5815.415.98TT6.012123.01212316.8007211798418.0765717797070.68398230701182163113127.5WETL
2023-12-17 11:00:02FORECAST20248116137.07630.79433.93556.54644767687600.5615.415.96TT5.076122.07612316.433984193917.8932177304060.64668346933268163113127.5WETL
2023-12-17 07:00:04FORECAST20248116137.36430.12833.74657.12777417671600.6715.416.07TT5.364121.36412316.8492815913818.1008942068070.65833177355585163113127.5WETL
2023-12-17 03:00:06FORECAST20248116136.1429.10232.62157.46925779226100.7115.416.11TT4.14117.1412317.0929504080918.2230965111110.60791993881782163113127.5WETL
2023-12-16 23:00:02FORECAST20248116135.27629.31832.29758.88971323039400.7415.416.14TT3.276114.27612318.104264629718.7330689214080.57115110861356163113127.5WETL
2023-12-16 19:00:02FORECAST20248116135.76230.54233.15258.51968517635500.7415.416.14TT3.762114.76212317.8411690414918.5999651483930.59193131818072163113127.5WETL
2023-12-16 15:00:02FORECAST20248116135.70830.34433.02659.16592057267100.8515.416.25TT3.708113.70812318.3004911452318.8325415773410.58963400622285163113127.5WETL
2023-12-16 11:00:02FORECAST20248116135.92430.09233.00858.70560226175600.8415.416.24TT3.924113.92412317.9733898326118.6668193533360.59880401992169163113127.5WETL
2023-12-16 07:00:06FORECAST20248116137.23831.35234.29557.37630408857900.6615.416.06TT5.238119.23812317.0266433603618.1898170936260.65325337845137163113127.5WETL
2023-12-16 03:00:05FORECAST20248116134.91629.28232.09958.54009567693300.6615.416.06TT2.916111.91612317.8556876631118.6073023672560.55562676926826163113127.5WETL
2023-12-15 23:00:03FORECAST20248116138.37232.48635.42957.92627531244500.7915.416.19TT6.372108.37212317.4187289889318.3868846847390.69786895120125163113127.5WETL
2023-12-15 19:00:02FORECAST20248116140.56830.84835.70859.07206440441400.8615.416.26TT8.568111.56812318.2338281675918.7987291931790.77599878524144164113129WETL
2023-12-15 15:00:04FORECAST20248116138.96630.25434.6160.14027892567901.0215.416.42TT6.966109.96612318.9916080771719.1842442847120.720161481591691641141212WETL
2023-12-15 11:00:06FORECAST20248116136.64431.0133.82760.31822803767101.115.416.5TT4.644106.64412319.1176436032819.2486107977070.628953582770591631141210WETL
2023-12-15 07:00:05FORECAST20248116134.66430.07432.36960.5935435710401.0615.416.46TT2.664100.66412319.3125283611319.3482776000290.544707256400971631141210WETL
2023-12-15 03:00:05FORECAST20248116136.2330.1133.1759.0650311080040115.416.4TT4.23109.2312318.2288320062518.7961958619130.611701141775381631141210WETL
2023-12-14 23:00:03FORECAST20248116133.24229.98431.61360.36254429141201.0615.3616.42TT1.24299.24212319.1490224948919.2646470059090.48269568912072162114128WETL
2023-12-14 19:00:03FORECAST20248116134.17829.4831.82960.32579332449900.9915.3616.35TT2.178101.17812319.1230005857719.2513481784310.52355972829492163113127.5WETL
2023-12-14 15:00:03FORECAST20248116132.5428.97630.75859.91935458556201.0515.3616.41TT0.54100.5412318.8350553194719.1043907339940.45214323230731162114128WETL
2023-12-14 11:00:04FORECAST20248116133.04428.9430.99257.77520454264301.0215.3616.38TT1.044100.04412317.3110821324618.332712673850.47406019943931162114128WETL
2023-12-14 07:00:06FORECAST20248116134.44829.4831.96458.49489968202501.0515.4216.47TT2.448104.44812317.8235373392218.5910559332440.535320394686231631141210WETL
2023-12-14 03:00:07FORECAST20248116136.01430.32633.1759.92423581048401.0715.3616.43TT4.014107.01412318.8385152320819.1061543722320.602609167829791631141210WETL
2023-12-13 23:00:03FORECAST20248116137.00430.97433.98961.90494231791800.8315.3416.17TT5.00481.00412320.238946300819.8243734987020.64374928587834163113127.5WETL
2023-12-13 19:00:04FORECAST20248116136.35631.96434.1661.36024541019800.8615.3316.19TT4.35686.35612319.8545279969119.6263523334530.61697701917678163113127.5WETL
2023-12-13 15:00:04FORECAST20248116135.79831.02833.41360.52011467113600.6915.3116TT3.79890.79812319.2605643316119.321685963320.59346111123251163113127.5WETL
2023-12-13 11:00:03FORECAST20248116132.34226.92429.63363.6755284311820.2051182211.35511822115.3416.695118221TT0.34282.34212321.4848645008220.4707186297170.443569017937162114128WETL
2023-12-13 07:00:06FORECAST20248116132.14425.14228.64364.1424812888630.2133859421.35338594215.3516.703385942TT0.14481.14412321.8125151627720.641853232350.43502114038638162114128WETL
2023-12-13 03:00:05FORECAST20248116130.63223.4527.04163.2690300186010.1893701811.14937018115.3416.489370181TT-1.36878.63212321.1993168343220.3219692187450.37102176745229162114128WETL
2023-12-12 23:00:03FORECAST20248116134.0728.36431.21762.2749087205850.0251968640.63519686415.3716.005196864TT2.0783.0712320.4997459064419.9590924212940.51884913083813163113127.5WETL
2023-12-12 19:00:03FORECAST20248116133.45828.74231.161.85556833143500.5415.3815.92TT1.45883.45812320.2041226651219.806407989520.49212535080127162113126WETL
2023-12-12 15:00:04FORECAST20248116132.16226.65429.40865.0462630556640.3019686670.94196866715.3816.321968667TT0.16280.16212322.4455762559220.9738797742780.4357970284525162113126WETL
2023-12-12 11:00:04FORECAST20248116133.5328.3130.9260.8917660327720.4433073261.12330732615.4116.533307326TT1.5380.5312319.5234743025119.4563486392070.49526981020341162114128WETL
2023-12-12 07:00:06FORECAST20248116132.5427.93230.23664.2462961774860.4342522031.12425220315.4616.584252203TT0.5478.5412321.8853070234920.6799387702120.45214323230731162114128WETL
2023-12-12 03:00:05FORECAST20248116133.0829.4831.2865.9549166872720.2074804271.11748042715.3916.507480427TT1.0873.0812323.0805865411521.3087531685960.47562950149788162114128WETL
2023-12-11 23:00:05FORECAST20248116131.35228.65230.00269.3159606041020.1622048121.24220481215.3116.552204812TT-0.64879.35212325.4167478870122.5565744764510.40117076107514162114128WETL
2023-12-11 19:00:04FORECAST20248116130.84827.80629.32770.0290556065160.1586615031.19866150315.2816.478661503TT-1.15270.84812325.9098395643922.8231582775650.37999300000367162114128WETL
2023-12-11 15:00:04FORECAST20248116134.37626.40230.38966.885432432090.3082678830.60826788315.3615.968267883TT2.37673.37612323.729357979921.6527780994490.53218680568671163113127.5WETL
2023-12-11 11:00:03FORECAST20248116139.41626.3332.87367.696419614570.0137795350.85377953515.3816.233779535TT7.41672.41612324.293542842421.9535117545540.73650123213727164113129WETL
2023-12-11 07:00:07FORECAST20248116139.41626.31232.86468.0694919080570.011811031.0218110315.3416.36181103TT7.41678.41612324.5526905091222.0921367403490.736501232137271641141212WETL
2023-12-11 03:00:07FORECAST20248116137.72427.21232.46866.75587562254500.9515.3416.29TT5.72473.72412323.6391206222521.6048128828490.67268184318021163113127.5WETL
2023-12-10 23:00:03FORECAST20248116130.30819.50824.90856.3949349673350.0153543390.59535433914.7615.355354339TT-1.69264.30812316.3256433242717.8391640837720.35769666661288162113126WETL
2023-12-10 19:00:04FORECAST20248116128.34619.41823.88260.8693388280070.0122047310.75220473114.8315.582204731TT-3.65457.34612319.5076161041819.4482173427740.28114460215321162113126WETL
2023-12-10 15:00:07FORECAST20248116132.55827.60830.08358.24011585006900.4514.7315.18TT0.55855.55812317.6422269337818.4995200954970.45292387574647162112124WETL
2023-12-10 11:00:04FORECAST20248116137.4935.9636.72562.24236225197100.3115.0415.35TT5.4966.4912320.4768128259319.9472338772690.66338168824881163112125WETL
2023-12-10 07:00:05FORECAST20248116137.4935.9636.72562.43282441178100.3315.0515.38TT5.4963.4912320.610990460820.0166496719260.66338168824881163112125WETL
2023-12-10 03:00:07FORECAST20248116136.10435.94236.02366.26076709467800.6215.2715.89TT4.10463.10412323.2939998533821.4217084273920.60640457806013163113127.5WETL