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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, December 18, 2023

[ Sunday, December 17, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, December 19, 2023 ]

DAY 79 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/19/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.19°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.84°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.957
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 126

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.07 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.07 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 18.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 18.45 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 56 in
SWE DAY: 14
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 318.44 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 17.95 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 159

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-19 07:00:04OBSERVATION20247915948.1899239.5000643.8449956.36799750.0699999999999360.06999999999993618.3818.45TT16.18992126.1899214318.43837669295 17.9497336213320.9567270164092816 5211124WETL
2023-12-19 03:00:03OBSERVATION20247915948.1899239.5000643.8449956.36799750.0699999999999360.06999999999993618.3818.45TT16.18992126.1899214318.43837669295 17.9497336213320.9567270164092816 5211124WETL
2023-12-18 11:00:01FORECAST20247915937.61632.935.25857.0687242979940.2866143280.28661432818.3818.666614328TT5.616115.61614318.9353329800118.2012325867250.67764512520673163212126WETL
2023-12-18 07:00:03FORECAST20247915938.76833.7136.23956.8762703863050.3362206540.33622065418.3818.716220654TT6.768116.76814318.7989325270718.1320942852750.72489238043949164212127WETL
2023-12-18 03:00:04FORECAST20247915939.09233.87236.48256.6539485070580.3098426870.30984268718.3818.689842687TT7.092117.09214318.6412803228518.0522866876340.73753942270448164212127WETL
2023-12-17 23:00:01FORECAST20247915939.7433.76436.75256.818651595280.1976379020.19763790218.3818.577637902TT7.74104.7414318.7580826140718.1114044392280.76191081939931164212127WETL
2023-12-17 19:00:01FORECAST20247915939.68634.57437.1356.42573760.1110236820.11102368218.3818.491023682TT7.686104.68614318.4793594884917.9704327695130.7599283129415164212127WETL
2023-12-17 15:00:01FORECAST20247915939.59634.80837.20256.6828736938220.1740158420.17401584218.3818.554015842TT7.596104.59614318.6617967001518.0626663734010.75660426379876164212127WETL
2023-12-17 11:00:02FORECAST20247915940.3734.6137.4955.7584950392880.1787402540.17874025418.3818.558740254TT8.37105.3714318.0053969540317.7315023485280.78436597967451164212127WETL
2023-12-17 07:00:04FORECAST20247915940.11833.8937.00456.1432799033830.2350394970.23503949718.3818.615039497TT8.118105.11814318.2788193023717.8692168394110.77553447372391164212127WETL
2023-12-17 03:00:06FORECAST20247915939.03833.15236.09556.2504857358010.1503937820.15039378218.3818.530393782TT7.038102.03814318.3549505709717.9076206060140.73545240596946164212127WETL
2023-12-16 23:00:01FORECAST20247915939.39831.04635.22256.8749922567160.1047244660.10472446618.3818.484724466TT7.398100.39814318.7980264381818.1316352851280.74920478534194164212127WETL
2023-12-16 19:00:02FORECAST20247915939.23631.8235.52856.8471683424210.1448819680.14488196818.3818.524881968TT7.236100.23614318.778300839318.1216437317230.74306335197151164212127WETL
2023-12-16 15:00:01FORECAST20247915938.85832.70235.7857.1472529542030.1511811840.15118118418.3818.531181184TT6.85898.85814318.9909705009118.2294576813220.72843531357279164212127WETL
2023-12-16 11:00:02FORECAST20247915938.98432.70235.84356.9441283473150.1944882940.19448829418.3818.574488294TT6.98498.98414318.8470340241518.1564664286320.733356989767164212127WETL
2023-12-16 07:00:05FORECAST20247915940.11834.46637.29256.3849369176680.1500000810.15000008118.3818.530000081TT8.118102.11814318.4504005838617.9558057483270.77553447372391164212127WETL
2023-12-16 03:00:04FORECAST20247915938.40832.7235.56456.9932805561840.1712599350.17125993518.3818.551259935TT6.40898.40814318.8818706664418.1741239191730.71049743113414164212127WETL
2023-12-15 23:00:02FORECAST20247915939.07433.4436.25757.364189347370.1629922140.16299221418.3818.542992214TT7.07491.07414319.1446121852818.307471962590.73684468689704164212127WETL
2023-12-15 19:00:01FORECAST20247915938.96632.52235.74457.788217011180.1960630980.19606309818.3818.576063098TT6.96691.96614319.444678555518.4601384074320.7326566600858164212127WETL
2023-12-15 15:00:03FORECAST20247915938.91233.0835.99657.7452166934790.185039470.1850394718.3818.56503947TT6.91291.91214319.4142637796618.4446458769440.7305501253896164212127WETL
2023-12-15 11:00:05FORECAST20247915938.7532.77435.76257.7829979401010.2763781020.27637810218.3818.656378102TT6.7590.7514319.4409872046218.4582579056290.72418107511112164212127WETL
2023-12-15 07:00:05FORECAST20247915937.97632.88235.42957.6968792151130.2456694240.24566942418.3818.625669424TT5.97687.97614319.3800699830418.4272333215260.69277124627556163212126WETL
2023-12-15 03:00:04FORECAST20247915938.78633.54836.16756.6730835708640.1984253040.19842530418.3818.578425304TT6.78693.78614318.654852821918.0591531042370.72560278227251164212127WETL
2023-12-14 23:00:02FORECAST20247915937.16634.9736.06857.8709979988930.2692914840.26929148418.3418.609291484TT5.16686.16614319.5032214491818.4899702891250.65831852371463163212126WETL
2023-12-14 19:00:03FORECAST20247915937.99433.31435.65457.627282693420.240157610.2401576118.3418.58015761TT5.99487.99414319.3308302243718.4021680260640.69351929984958163212126WETL
2023-12-14 15:00:02FORECAST20247915938.80433.58436.19457.1041757115130.3169293050.31692930518.3418.656929305TT6.80488.80414318.9604516661618.2139736769680.72631227854813164212127WETL
2023-12-14 11:00:03FORECAST20247915937.3133.2635.28556.820699679360.3925198970.39251989718.3418.732519897TT5.3188.3114318.7595347438318.1121397936120.66455135623762163212126WETL
2023-12-14 07:00:05FORECAST20247915939.03834.9737.00456.8212579286810.4267718840.42677188418.418.826771884TT7.03890.03814318.7599305516918.1123402312060.73545240596946164212127WETL
2023-12-14 03:00:06FORECAST20247915937.97633.51235.74458.1806912345610.4311025950.43110259518.3418.771102595TT5.97689.97614319.7221280414918.6016544124390.69277124627556163212126WETL
2023-12-13 23:00:03FORECAST20247915935.43831.15433.29660.0925844903240.3594490130.35944901318.3218.679449013TT3.43867.43814321.0697430921819.2939106640540.58059683506772163212126WETL
2023-12-13 19:00:03FORECAST20247915936.53629.91233.22459.5380098609660.3751970530.37519705318.3118.685197053TT4.53671.53614320.6795198043419.0926204123210.63055962437425163212126WETL
2023-12-13 15:00:03FORECAST20247915936.28432.30634.29559.8143089854640.464567180.4645671818.2918.75456718TT4.28475.28414320.8740048225619.192856869860.61925286467833163212126WETL
2023-12-13 11:00:03FORECAST20247915935.20431.85633.5360.0389741395260.5751971610.57519716118.3218.895197161TT3.20472.20414321.0320444688719.2744346158260.56974846227208163213129WETL
2023-12-13 07:00:05FORECAST20247915934.86230.72232.79260.3843939508050.5728349550.57283495518.3318.902834955TT2.86271.86214321.2748525569319.3999872632840.55380023451705163213129WETL
2023-12-13 03:00:04FORECAST20247915936.03232.41434.22359.9795478896940.4779530140.47795301418.3218.797953014TT4.03271.03214320.9902501249719.2528500794950.60784335829405163212126WETL
2023-12-12 23:00:03FORECAST20247915936.35631.98234.16960.809980041020.326771830.3267718318.3518.67677183TT4.35672.35614321.5737196418519.5548914731370.6224942514822163212126WETL
2023-12-12 19:00:03FORECAST20247915936.9532.2734.6160.77205924830.2889765340.28897653418.3618.648976534TT4.9570.9514321.5471029405619.5410795910230.64888830282696163212126WETL
2023-12-12 15:00:03FORECAST20247915936.46432.50434.48460.6475111871310.1622048120.16220481218.3618.522204812TT4.46469.46414321.4596642980719.4957285867280.62734013716763163212126WETL
2023-12-12 11:00:03FORECAST20247915936.37433.11634.74560.1406964674710.0385826980.03858269818.3918.428582698TT4.37468.37414321.1035709067119.3113923925210.62330326240854163211123WETL
2023-12-12 07:00:06FORECAST20247915937.59832.3634.97960.4140621559730.0389763990.03897639918.4418.478976399TT5.59864.59814321.2956974794519.410778237970.67688076889241163211123WETL
2023-12-12 03:00:05FORECAST20247915935.27631.7333.50361.5215926226880.2610237630.26102376318.3718.631023763TT3.27661.27614322.0727271636319.8144271154390.57309243213284163212126WETL
2023-12-11 23:00:04FORECAST20247915940.38832.91836.65364.1137649848940.3539371990.35393719918.2918.643937199TT8.38870.38814323.8828408803520.7653483428420.78498901121167164212127WETL
2023-12-11 19:00:04FORECAST20247915939.7431.2835.5164.8490304616880.3401576640.34015766418.2618.600157664TT7.7461.7414324.3941107216921.0366435677830.76191081939931164212127WETL
2023-12-11 15:00:04FORECAST20247915937.36433.40435.38464.0090405731940.0992126520.09921265218.3418.439212652TT5.36458.36414323.8099426194120.726763755130.66687716339238163212126WETL
2023-12-11 11:00:03FORECAST20247915935.92433.11634.5266.2002260737340.4681104890.46811048918.3618.828110489TT3.92453.92414325.3311840587321.5369979335230.6029244094389163212126WETL
2023-12-11 07:00:07FORECAST20247915935.76232.79234.27765.8225971708290.547244390.5472443918.3218.86724439TT3.76260.76214325.0696167822321.3969264379320.59551542653061163213129WETL
2023-12-11 03:00:07FORECAST20247915936.62633.85435.2464.8891509336980.5224412270.52244122718.3218.842441227TT4.62656.62614324.4219811924421.0514669038060.63457112621496163213129WETL
2023-12-10 23:00:03FORECAST20247915937.3133.99835.65455.5056114839380.1582678020.15826780217.7417.898267802TT5.3156.3114317.825556116617.6411018374750.66455135623762163212126WETL
2023-12-10 19:00:03FORECAST20247915936.6832.48634.58357.3969871403130.1952756960.19527569617.8118.005275696TT4.6849.6814319.1678333242218.3192720249120.63697101561925163212126WETL
2023-12-10 15:00:06FORECAST20247915938.44434.10636.27556.7753315342470.1625985130.16259851317.7117.872598513TT6.44444.44414318.7273661141518.0958518801680.71195270012302164212127WETL
2023-12-10 11:00:03FORECAST20247915940.62234.91637.76961.2045397846430.0456693160.05566931618.0118.065669316TT8.62245.62214321.8505100764119.6987123486790.79299298918755164211123.5WETL
2023-12-10 07:00:05FORECAST20247915940.53234.8837.70661.2965671636880.0492126250.05921262518.0218.079212625TT8.53242.53214321.9150289775419.7322861947220.78993557056872164211123.5WETL
2023-12-10 03:00:06FORECAST20247915939.03833.09836.06863.02753195827300.417.8518.25TT7.03842.03814323.1257748962320.3658201038140.73545240596946164212127WETL
2023-12-09 23:00:04FORECAST20247915940.06431.40635.73561.43883698160400.4617.918.36TT8.06445.06414322.0147423621719.7842112616620.77361569825145164212127WETL
2023-12-09 19:00:03FORECAST20247915939.41631.6435.52861.69050251524100.5417.6718.21TT7.41635.41614322.1910402675619.8761271800140.749882343897631642131210.5WETL
2023-12-09 15:00:04FORECAST20247915938.89426.58232.73859.5668013695020.0527559340.24275593417.517.742755934TT6.89440.89414320.6997923164519.1030608281550.72984610515324164212127WETL
2023-12-09 11:00:04FORECAST20247915938.9326.0632.49567.5946344588380.070866180.3508661817.4917.84086618TT6.9340.9314326.2948599748222.0557817857960.73125322593861164212127WETL
2023-12-09 07:00:05FORECAST20247915936.9524.40430.67767.6032659556820.0811024060.39110240617.3317.721102406TT4.9537.9514326.3008145811822.0590007496870.64888830282696163212126WETL
2023-12-09 03:00:06FORECAST20247915934.23226.97830.60566.4231859447070.0728346850.07283468517.3817.452834685TT2.23230.23214325.4855010047721.6197839555460.52421184201501163211123WETL
2023-12-08 23:00:04FORECAST20247915931.24425.41228.32860.1943547440940.0885827250.57858272516.7717.348582725TT-0.75625.24414321.1412934811819.3308929427830.3848332518369162213127.5WETL
2023-12-08 19:00:04FORECAST20247915931.20825.19628.20261.02760012750.2153544470.75535444716.7217.475354447TT-0.79223.20814321.7264181740519.6341911987790.383206274989162213127.5WETL
2023-12-08 15:00:04FORECAST20247915931.53229.31830.42566.3352303874740.4452758311.27527583116.818.075275831TT-0.46824.53214325.4246348686521.5871181277720.397919856680861622141210WETL
2023-12-08 11:00:04FORECAST20247915928.02225.35826.6958.3445757557010.0606299540.39062995416.7217.110629954TT-3.97825.02214319.8379001240318.6608065933310.25013646407212162212125WETL
2023-12-08 07:00:05FORECAST20247915928.02225.35826.6958.0384528236520.0606299540.36062995416.817.160629954TT-3.97820.02214319.6216082351318.5503436309740.25013646407212162212125WETL
2023-12-08 03:00:10FORECAST20247915928.90428.16628.53554.2410784809830016.6916.69TT-3.09626.90414316.9245349109417.1903285706530.28444436371774162211122.5WETL