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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, December 17, 2023

[ Saturday, December 16, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, December 18, 2023 ]

DAY 78 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/18/2023 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.83°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.26°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.04°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.997
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 25
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 107

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 18.83 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 18.83 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 57 in
SWE DAY: 15
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 319.85 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.19 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 158

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-18 07:00:03OBSERVATION20247815856.8299239.2599448.0449356.8699650018.8318.83TT24.82992106.8299215319.85305094818 18.1900318125660.9974907880797416 5211124WETL
2023-12-18 03:00:03OBSERVATION20247815856.8299239.2599448.0449356.8699650018.8318.83TT24.82992106.8299215319.85305094818 18.1900318125660.9974907880797416 5211124WETL
2023-12-17 11:00:02FORECAST20247815843.98834.59239.2956.05378560018.8318.83TT11.98893.98815319.2760351225217.8966304199760.87993155362922165211124WETL
2023-12-17 07:00:04FORECAST20247815843.9733.92638.94856.296880018.8318.83TT11.9793.9715319.4480211107817.9839269107110.87947502379306165211124WETL
2023-12-17 03:00:05FORECAST20247815842.0833.27837.67956.44772720018.8318.83TT10.0892.0815319.554690075718.0381359708740.82465312488316164211123.5WETL
2023-12-16 23:00:01FORECAST20247815844.83435.00639.9257.0223960018.8318.83TT12.83489.83415319.9606828658618.2449247628070.90003367239645165211124WETL
2023-12-16 19:00:01FORECAST20247815844.54634.75439.6557.03745120018.8318.83TT12.54689.54615319.9713111199418.2503480434040.89348543345847165211124WETL
2023-12-16 15:00:01FORECAST20247815843.89833.31438.60657.16123840018.8318.83TT11.89888.89815320.0586835794818.2949507140770.87763672376897165211124WETL
2023-12-16 11:00:02FORECAST20247815844.1533.92639.03856.82963040018.8318.83TT12.1589.1515319.8245636112618.1755117428690.88398569586846165211124WETL
2023-12-16 07:00:05FORECAST20247815845.1433.6239.3856.6199814166670018.8318.83TT13.1491.1415319.6764466673818.1000744696530.90666473833361165211124WETL
2023-12-16 03:00:04FORECAST20247815843.50233.51238.50756.8881214166670018.8318.83TT11.50288.50215319.865873426618.1965686445410.86717565638906165211124WETL
2023-12-15 23:00:02FORECAST20247815844.22234.739.46157.56316320018.8318.83TT12.22281.22215320.3421839850918.4399094165780.8857560883896165211124WETL
2023-12-15 19:00:01FORECAST20247815844.11433.838.95757.65064080018.8318.83TT12.11482.11415320.4038485667918.4714871846620.88309325562771165211124WETL
2023-12-15 15:00:03FORECAST20247815844.07833.06238.5757.71469920018.8318.83TT12.07882.07815320.4489958308218.4946174033180.88219597575623165211124WETL
2023-12-15 11:00:04FORECAST20247815844.25833.8939.07457.36380480018.8318.83TT12.25881.25815320.201601350118.3679821564950.88663405652563165211124WETL
2023-12-15 07:00:05FORECAST20247815843.14233.9838.56157.2541054666670018.8318.83TT11.14279.14215320.1242137129318.3284254943540.85714668332645165211124WETL
2023-12-15 03:00:04FORECAST20247815845.10435.16840.13656.5820334666670018.8318.83TT13.10484.10415319.6496280206418.0864259502710.90590186117197165211124WETL
2023-12-14 23:00:02FORECAST20247815843.59233.76438.67857.40326320018.7918.79TT11.59277.59215320.2294320930318.3822143748230.86960546379419165211124WETL
2023-12-14 19:00:03FORECAST20247815843.6134.5239.06557.1594280018.7918.79TT11.6178.6115320.0574059465918.2942982510710.87008772311825165211124WETL
2023-12-14 15:00:02FORECAST20247815843.734.2538.97556.9454080018.7918.79TT11.778.715319.9063266513118.217196292940.87248054495281165211124WETL
2023-12-14 11:00:03FORECAST20247815843.82635.58239.70457.1096936881570018.7918.79TT11.82679.82615320.0223052216318.2763758245850.87577889416892165211124WETL
2023-12-14 07:00:05FORECAST20247815844.07834.57439.32657.4352378213090018.8518.85TT12.07880.07815320.251982341918.3937487685520.88219597575623165211124WETL
2023-12-14 03:00:06FORECAST20247815844.70835.58240.14557.185802593280018.7918.79TT12.70880.70815320.0760184060918.3038040034140.89720580417675165211124WETL
2023-12-13 23:00:03FORECAST20247815841.2734.26837.76958.6937231507030018.7718.77TT9.2761.2715321.138081886118.8487896713710.79695880105062164211123.5WETL
2023-12-13 19:00:03FORECAST20247815841.93636.17639.05658.1258313172490018.7618.76TT9.93663.93615320.7385799094118.6431965927480.81991256047609164211123.5WETL
2023-12-13 15:00:03FORECAST20247815842.20634.77238.48958.2159128156120018.7418.74TT10.20668.20615320.8019891295618.6757806302410.82873574436249164211123.5WETL
2023-12-13 11:00:03FORECAST20247815841.39636.06838.73257.8731181403580018.7718.77TT9.39666.39615320.5606152473418.5518423573550.80143019677765164211123.5WETL
2023-12-13 07:00:05FORECAST20247815840.71235.63638.17458.1195849372010018.7818.78TT8.71265.71215320.7341824853918.6409375612230.77644756644866164211123.5WETL
2023-12-13 03:00:04FORECAST20247815840.78435.2438.01258.2467496297520018.7718.77TT8.78463.78415320.8236921220518.6869372703260.7791584668365164211123.5WETL
2023-12-12 23:00:03FORECAST20247815842.69236.48239.58759.5708513879860018.818.8TT10.69264.69215321.7539949943619.16715941930.84390960612918164211123.5WETL
2023-12-12 19:00:03FORECAST20247815842.65637.23839.94759.7345781601060018.8118.81TT10.65662.65615321.8688108535519.2266976392320.84281688672757164211123.5WETL
2023-12-12 15:00:03FORECAST20247815842.33234.75438.54360.2345198486620018.8118.81TT10.33262.33215322.2191071212319.4087132035120.83275722154868164211123.5WETL
2023-12-12 11:00:03FORECAST20247815841.16234.30437.73360.3261405008890018.8418.84TT9.16261.16215322.2832551373519.44210493050.79307883810802164211123.5WETL
2023-12-12 07:00:05FORECAST20247815840.76634.28637.52660.5810864854740018.8918.89TT8.76655.76615322.4616765128519.5350787130760.77848250876624164211123.5WETL
2023-12-12 03:00:05FORECAST20247815840.94633.85437.460.4814966973250018.8218.82TT8.94654.94615322.3919933552819.4987502813620.78518880408445164211123.5WETL
2023-12-11 23:00:04FORECAST20247815842.00835.36638.68762.8297416786520018.7418.74TT10.00859.00815324.0303815268620.3587451673680.82229279239102164211123.5WETL
2023-12-11 19:00:03FORECAST20247815839.99232.88236.43763.4078019189390018.7118.71TT7.99250.99215324.4322018328720.5715327899440.74832212167043164211123.5WETL
2023-12-11 15:00:04FORECAST20247815839.27230.09234.68264.03827493922900.0118.7818.79TT7.27250.27215324.8697831021220.8041004897410.7184340147931164211123.5WETL
2023-12-11 11:00:03FORECAST20247815839.1131.13635.12364.4386960137080018.8118.81TT7.1147.1115325.1473326487520.9520701282210.71148095231508164211123.5WETL
2023-12-11 07:00:06FORECAST2024781584131.0136.00563.6044935845610018.7718.77TT95415324.5687913554420.6440336075160.78717749708403164211123.5WETL
2023-12-11 03:00:06FORECAST20247815840.5532.70236.62663.6108300908730018.7718.77TT8.5548.5515324.5731905109620.6463700736450.7702794749168164211123.5WETL
2023-12-10 23:00:03FORECAST20247815840.62235.02437.82355.7630778483010018.1918.19TT8.62247.62215319.0702238547317.7923377318860.77303252401106164211123.5WETL
2023-12-10 19:00:03FORECAST20247815838.94833.09836.02356.63197686450018.2618.26TT6.94841.94815319.6849235751818.1043891958390.70444810795546164211123.5WETL
2023-12-10 15:00:05FORECAST20247815837.47231.78434.62856.5173357697310018.1618.16TT5.47235.47215319.6038987814218.0631608607450.63707722281799163211123WETL
2023-12-10 11:00:03FORECAST20247815837.68829.4833.58461.68247789512800.0118.4618.47TT5.68833.68815323.2311478244519.9376981306980.64727020458181163211123WETL
2023-12-10 07:00:05FORECAST20247815837.95829.46233.7161.74030673910500.0118.4718.48TT5.95830.95815323.2714896683519.9588809321310.65986360557592163211123WETL
2023-12-10 03:00:06FORECAST20247815837.65226.2431.94663.54482075827300.418.318.7TT5.65231.65215324.5273596834820.6220329022430.64557846232557163212126WETL
2023-12-09 23:00:03FORECAST20247815837.72428.2232.97261.90594178160400.4618.3518.81TT5.72433.72415323.3870051538620.0195771139820.64895904112412163212126WETL
2023-12-09 19:00:03FORECAST20247815837.11227.37432.24362.13172811524100.5418.1218.66TT5.11225.11215323.5443924768620.1023722265830.61987446964979163213129WETL
2023-12-09 15:00:04FORECAST20247815835.20428.07631.6459.3419496574560.0948819410.19488194117.9518.144881941TT3.20431.20415321.5933941533919.0839790060210.52550339306213163212126WETL
2023-12-09 11:00:04FORECAST20247815833.33226.74430.03867.1755015695070.1448819680.28488196817.9418.224881968TT1.33231.33215327.0367941364121.9688606777970.43146019755721162212125WETL
2023-12-09 07:00:05FORECAST20247815832.37825.0728.72466.9752502352950.1858268720.30582687217.7818.085826872TT0.37830.37815326.8989876679121.8941415007230.38466631710227162212125WETL
2023-12-09 03:00:06FORECAST20247815832.5428.16630.35365.9672428243790017.8317.83TT0.5424.5415326.2042442450121.5187945904530.39251488652793162211122.5WETL
2023-12-08 23:00:03FORECAST20247815830.72227.17628.94959.3708258671590.4889766420.48897664217.2217.708976642TT-1.27822.72215321.6136592764319.0944685614010.30763013242329162212125WETL
2023-12-08 19:00:03FORECAST20247815830.50626.97828.74258.9310954749780.5448821840.54488218417.1717.714882184TT-1.49420.50615321.3048984662718.9348496480940.29809613269656162213127.5WETL
2023-12-08 15:00:04FORECAST20247815831.49627.93229.71462.4674117104540.8334650170.83346501717.2518.083465017TT-0.50422.49615323.778218337320.2255872677530.34283497824333162213127.5WETL
2023-12-08 11:00:03FORECAST20247815830.9228.23829.57957.7627590974150.3271655310.32716553117.1717.497165531TT-1.0825.9215320.4828628013418.5119743988440.31648537944228162212125WETL
2023-12-08 07:00:05FORECAST20247815829.85824.90827.38357.4566361653650.2972442550.29724425517.2517.547244255TT-2.14220.85815320.2670725996418.4014686661040.27033439615134162212125WETL
2023-12-08 03:00:10FORECAST20247815832.55825.80829.18354.2410784809830017.1417.14TT0.55826.55815317.9902156025917.2481322406850.39338971851722162211122.5WETL
2023-12-07 23:00:05FORECAST20247815828.41821.57824.99851.1151473739840.059055150.0590551517.8917.94905515TT-3.5824.41815315.758923341316.1400639012410.21363754819581161211122WETL
2023-12-07 19:00:04FORECAST20247815828.45421.63225.04351.775242655980.0570866450.05708664518.2418.297086645TT-3.54610.45415316.2315765790816.3729666128650.21496509095027161211122WETL
2023-12-07 15:00:06FORECAST20247815827.42824.00825.71850.9479431741490.0169291430.01692914318.2418.256929143TT-4.5729.42815315.6390729536316.0811615523820.17903261623866161211122WETL
2023-12-07 11:00:05FORECAST20247815830.03828.47229.25567.2910929042370.3165356041.71653560417.4619.176535604TT-1.9623.03815327.1163084393822.0120139016850.277915017455441622151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 07:00:07FORECAST20247815830.03828.47229.25568.0369625411210.3165356041.72653560417.4819.206535604TT-1.962-0.96215327.6288249101822.2908700878050.277915017455441622151212.5WETL
2023-12-07 03:00:07FORECAST20247815832.16232.05432.10857.47756061181600.517.3717.87TT0.16214.16215320.2818278684418.4090181741720.37427514138113162213127.5WETL