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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 19, 2023

[ Monday, December 18, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, December 20, 2023 ]

DAY 80 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/20/2023 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.17°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.40°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.726
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 138

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.48 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.55 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 16.60 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 17.15 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 56 in
SWE DAY: 13
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 316.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 17.61 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 160

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-20 07:00:02OBSERVATION20248016039.1699434.3999436.7849455.5707550.480000000000020.5500000000000216.617.15TT7.16994138.1699413316.80576350269 17.6051354661960.7256966147760416 4113129WETL
2023-12-20 03:00:04OBSERVATION20248016039.1699434.3999436.7849455.5707550.480000000000020.5500000000000216.617.15TT7.16994138.1699413316.80576350269 17.6051354661960.7256966147760416 4113129WETL
2023-12-19 11:00:02FORECAST20248016033.9828.8531.41557.7770683230310.6854334410.75543344116.617.355433441TT1.98132.9813318.3766199994318.3948677261630.50626675059919163113127.5WETL
2023-12-19 07:00:04FORECAST20248016034.26830.21832.24358.0893080553130.7098429030.77984290316.617.379842903TT2.268133.26813318.5982190095218.5071500899180.51919103752614163113127.5WETL
2023-12-19 03:00:03FORECAST20248016034.53830.03832.28857.8421239080850.6098428490.67984284916.617.279842849TT2.538133.53813318.4228049583418.418251339560.53128951866631163113127.5WETL
2023-12-18 23:00:01FORECAST20248016035.22230.05632.63958.2720739994720.5594491210.84944912116.617.449449121TT3.222124.22213318.7278479270818.5729327400990.56178475493487163113127.5WETL
2023-12-18 19:00:01FORECAST20248016036.0530.70433.37758.2735850947050.5929137060.88291370616.617.482913706TT4.05125.0513318.7289194385218.5734768090440.59819856989605163113127.5WETL
2023-12-18 15:00:02FORECAST20248016036.33831.44233.8957.9287656114080.4929136520.78291365216.617.382913652TT4.338125.33813318.4843027169418.4494025230020.61068373071374163113127.5WETL
2023-12-18 11:00:01FORECAST20248016035.70831.29833.50357.7340970331540.425197080.7151970816.617.31519708TT3.708124.70813318.346109174718.3794251572190.58324224679326163113127.5WETL
2023-12-18 07:00:03FORECAST20248016036.48232.12634.30457.6199520832140.4484254390.78842543916.617.388425439TT4.482126.48213318.2650468753618.3384167507210.61688460875937163113127.5WETL
2023-12-18 03:00:04FORECAST20248016036.35632.10834.23257.3788086455030.480315220.7903152216.617.39031522TT4.356126.35613318.093716790418.2518385070540.61146041924112163113127.5WETL
2023-12-17 23:00:02FORECAST20248016036.64432.934.77257.8656107705270.5464569880.74645698816.617.346456988TT4.644114.64413318.4394771288118.4266948375060.6238249064759163113127.5WETL
2023-12-17 19:00:02FORECAST20248016036.39232.66634.52957.2319879953390.5484254930.65842549316.617.258425493TT4.392114.39213317.9893507266218.1991627034310.61301245765288163113127.5WETL
2023-12-17 15:00:01FORECAST20248016036.33832.57634.45757.26678937450.4066931330.57669313316.617.176693133TT4.338114.33813318.0140924757318.211646051930.61068373071374163113127.5WETL
2023-12-17 11:00:02FORECAST20248016035.81632.1833.99856.7023132768760.3834647740.56346477416.617.163464774TT3.816113.81613317.612512839918.0093642037040.58797942354935163113127.5WETL
2023-12-17 07:00:04FORECAST20248016035.36630.84833.10757.3196541767160.4255907810.66559078116.617.265590781TT3.366113.36613318.0516720800318.2306118539530.56816445947711163113127.5WETL
2023-12-17 03:00:06FORECAST20248016034.68231.15432.91857.5623441922610.5610239250.71102392516.617.311023925TT2.682109.68213318.2241265647118.31772670360.53773095923023163113127.5WETL
2023-12-16 23:00:01FORECAST20248016035.00630.99232.99958.9654812303940.6393704240.73937042416.617.339370424TT3.006108.00613319.2191083546618.822908342070.55218553069555163113127.5WETL
2023-12-16 19:00:02FORECAST20248016035.16832.07233.6258.6285155763550.6003940250.74039402516.617.340394025TT3.168108.16813318.9804852934918.7013523505830.55938812794699163113127.5WETL
2023-12-16 15:00:02FORECAST20248016034.6131.17232.89159.2566453726710.704724790.8547247916.617.45472479TT2.61106.6113319.4251325442418.9280618022920.53451136921168163113127.5WETL
2023-12-16 11:00:02FORECAST20248016034.82631.1933.00858.8114806617560.6484255470.83842554716.617.438425547TT2.826106.82613319.1100778116918.7673361701940.54416251952986163113127.5WETL
2023-12-16 07:00:05FORECAST20248016036.26632.82834.54757.5931776885790.5070868880.65708688816.617.257086888TT4.266111.26613318.2460291049718.3288001029270.607572582924163113127.5WETL
2023-12-16 03:00:05FORECAST20248016034.89830.72232.8158.6052364769330.4877955390.65779553916.617.257795539TT2.898105.89813318.9639925983118.6929602138510.54737407199549163113127.5WETL
2023-12-15 23:00:03FORECAST20248016035.27631.2833.27858.3349305124450.6279530950.78795309516.617.387953095TT3.27699.27613318.7724157507518.5955667221040.56417911826603163113127.5WETL
2023-12-15 19:00:01FORECAST20248016035.49230.8333.16159.3266252044140.6618113810.86181138116.617.461811381TT3.492100.49213319.4746267112418.9533514412180.57373221507777163113127.5WETL
2023-12-15 15:00:04FORECAST20248016035.4230.09232.75660.4526989256790.8318902131.02189021316.617.621890213TT3.42100.4213320.2698487515619.3611767415510.570552365702641631141210WETL
2023-12-15 11:00:05FORECAST20248016035.16831.80233.48560.4843272376710.8248035951.10480359516.617.704803595TT3.16899.16813320.2921515272219.372655304630.559388127946991631141210WETL
2023-12-15 07:00:05FORECAST20248016034.35830.93832.64860.654748371040.8094492561.05944925616.617.659449256TT2.35895.35813320.4122935426119.4345270398150.523226382327631631141210WETL
2023-12-15 03:00:05FORECAST20248016035.34831.96433.65659.2049559080040.7972445250.99724452516.617.597244525TT3.348102.34813319.3885688333118.9093861352970.567367932521971631141210WETL
2023-12-14 23:00:03FORECAST20248016035.85230.21833.03560.3854714914120.7937012161.06370121616.5617.623701216TT3.85294.85213320.2224372223619.3367828538020.58955567443941631141210WETL
2023-12-14 19:00:03FORECAST20248016034.68229.44432.06360.3868997244990.7460633950.98606339516.5617.546063395TT2.68295.68213320.2234445547819.3373010357630.53773095923023163113127.5WETL
2023-12-14 15:00:02FORECAST20248016035.0629.55232.30659.9283089855620.7342523651.05425236516.5617.614252365TT3.0697.0613319.8998127671619.1710548239340.554588429024681631141210WETL
2023-12-14 11:00:03FORECAST20248016035.40229.46232.43257.7956717426430.6267719921.01677199216.5617.576771992TT3.40296.40213318.3898279178318.4015539805350.569756679235171631141210WETL
2023-12-14 07:00:06FORECAST20248016035.8730.68633.27858.5667316820250.6232286831.05322868316.6217.673228683TT3.8798.8713318.9367107148718.6790807599860.590343259539391631141210WETL
2023-12-14 03:00:07FORECAST20248016036.75230.45233.60260.1350086104840.6385830221.06858302216.5617.628583022TT4.75299.75213320.0457292969319.245952687020.628429788144721631141210WETL
2023-12-13 23:00:03FORECAST20248016033.06230.231.63162.1759359179180.468504190.8285041916.5417.36850419TT1.06273.06213321.4823864325319.9884682575690.46509271584507162113126WETL
2023-12-13 19:00:03FORECAST20248016033.7130.86632.28861.6286806101980.476378210.8563782116.5317.38637821TT1.7178.7113321.097890908919.7888393634330.49414399672098162113126WETL
2023-12-13 15:00:04FORECAST20248016035.56430.57833.07160.7065826711360.2334646930.69346469316.5117.203464693TT3.56483.56413320.4488249255819.4533530822130.57690727881673163113127.5WETL
2023-12-13 11:00:03FORECAST20248016033.8928.32831.10962.5662051794090.5720475531.15204755316.5417.692047553TT1.8978.8913321.7562590040620.1310681186070.502225922817271631141210WETL
2023-12-13 07:00:05FORECAST20248016032.91827.60830.26362.9867103587350.5724412541.14244125416.5517.692441254TT0.91877.91813322.0510460257620.2849359567520.45865661647833162114128WETL
2023-12-13 03:00:04FORECAST20248016033.29625.41229.35462.1514421120640.4834648280.96346482816.5417.503464828TT1.29677.29613321.4651887783919.9795250714040.4755701344507162113126WETL
2023-12-12 23:00:03FORECAST20248016033.20628.61630.91162.1930529265560.2783466070.60834660716.5717.178346607TT1.20678.20613321.4944040356919.9947184857830.47153796006224162113126WETL
2023-12-12 19:00:03FORECAST20248016034.80830.8332.81961.9203155314350.2500001350.54000013516.5817.120000135TT2.80878.80813321.3028568946419.8951742800670.5433591720222163113127.5WETL
2023-12-12 15:00:04FORECAST20248016034.50227.30230.90263.0560111433970.4814963230.64149632316.5817.221496323TT2.50276.50213322.0995977868520.3103158273320.52967781133878163113127.5WETL
2023-12-12 11:00:04FORECAST20248016035.1530.30832.72960.9254188327720.6440948360.68409483616.6117.294094836TT3.1576.1513320.6030016020319.5328721516470.55858876418371163113127.5WETL
2023-12-12 07:00:06FORECAST20248016037.3129.71433.51261.5704439448690.6460633410.68606334116.6617.346063341TT5.3175.3113321.056942999719.7676185120740.65191700338792163113127.5WETL
2023-12-12 03:00:05FORECAST20248016034.71829.67832.19864.7194839702590.6503940520.91039405216.5917.500394052TT2.71868.71813323.26245703420.9213794061990.53933984100413163113127.5WETL
2023-12-11 23:00:04FORECAST20248016033.9831.4632.7268.1788273112110.7311027571.08110275716.5117.591102757TT1.9876.9813325.66505260522.2034613828530.506266750599191631141210WETL
2023-12-11 19:00:04FORECAST20248016033.9830.81232.39668.8836384357780.6960633681.03606336816.4817.516063368TT1.9868.9813326.151977141222.4665348685080.506266750599191631141210WETL
2023-12-11 15:00:04FORECAST20248016037.32833.92635.62764.6705280416190.200787510.3007875116.5616.86078751TT5.32868.32813323.228304265320.9033451148340.65266560569194163112125WETL
2023-12-11 11:00:03FORECAST20248016035.29431.47833.38667.8902846579750.3712600430.84126004316.5817.421260043TT3.29462.29413325.4654589321722.0959426532440.56497672143628163113127.5WETL
2023-12-11 07:00:07FORECAST20248016034.0728.72431.39768.258152943140.4618112731.01181127316.5417.551811273TT2.0768.0713325.7198989108622.2330386764820.510306935443951631141210WETL
2023-12-11 03:00:07FORECAST20248016035.22231.92833.57566.9570052225450.4311025950.95110259516.5417.491102595TT3.22265.22213324.818878677221.7488993559710.56178475493487163113127.5WETL
2023-12-10 23:00:03FORECAST20248016034.44827.6831.06456.2598148517080.4188978640.57889786415.9616.538897864TT2.44863.44813317.2973077363117.851087786190.52725934674596163113127.5WETL
2023-12-10 19:00:04FORECAST20248016034.84428.34631.59560.7611204548580.539370370.7393703716.0316.76937037TT2.84457.84413320.4872564569719.4731647938290.5449656865345163113127.5WETL
2023-12-10 15:00:06FORECAST20248016035.49230.00232.74758.2436582500690.2870080290.44700802915.9316.377008029TT3.49252.49213318.7076976696918.562702224740.57373221507777163112125WETL
2023-12-10 11:00:04FORECAST20248016039.32632.5435.93362.4403430519710.2629922680.31299226816.2416.552992268TT7.32658.32613321.6679645530520.0850580555210.73151974145975164112126WETL
2023-12-10 07:00:05FORECAST20248016039.32632.55835.94262.6308052117810.2783466070.32834660716.2516.578346607TT7.32655.32613321.8015660791820.1546912019510.73151974145975164112126WETL
2023-12-10 03:00:07FORECAST20248016041.32432.32436.82466.3047518946780.6177168690.61771686916.4717.087716869TT9.32456.32413324.3660838046221.5070127097130.80020285195605164113129WETL
2023-12-09 23:00:04FORECAST20248016033.4426.6930.06561.4238801816040016.5816.58TT1.4451.4413320.953862906919.7142316190160.48202664895077162111122WETL
2023-12-09 19:00:03FORECAST20248016033.8933.13433.51261.6309705152410016.4316.43TT1.8941.8913321.0995008846119.7896738714780.50222592281727163111122.5WETL
2023-12-09 15:00:05FORECAST20248016032.03629.22830.63259.56660456950200.1415.8215.96TT0.03600000000000146.03613319.6442885120519.0401249366970.41953329576415162112124WETL
2023-12-09 11:00:04FORECAST20248016032.05430.93831.49667.59433925883800.2115.8516.06TT0.05400000000000246.05413325.2605925402121.9857748396930.42032517762244162112124WETL
2023-12-09 07:00:05FORECAST20248016028.9427.53628.23867.60326595568200.2715.6715.94TT-3.0639.9413325.2667742442421.989096245780.29062814219569162112124WETL
2023-12-09 03:00:07FORECAST20248016031.31631.131.20866.42318594470700.0715.615.67TT-0.68434.31613324.4483565822221.5508935187150.3881578261099162111122WETL