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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, December 16, 2023

[ Friday, December 15, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, December 17, 2023 ]

DAY 77 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/17/2023 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.05°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.36°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.70°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.920
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 80

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.15 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 18.68 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 18.83 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 57 in
SWE DAY: 16
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 321.17 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.39 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 157

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-17 07:00:03OBSERVATION20247715744.0499237.3600440.7049857.2439800.1518.6818.83TT12.0499280.0499216321.17064167382 18.3850857885630.9201532729616716 5212128WETL
2023-12-17 03:00:05OBSERVATION20247715744.0499237.3600440.7049857.2439800.1518.6818.83TT12.0499280.0499216321.17064167382 18.3850857885630.9201532729616716 5212128WETL
2023-12-16 11:00:02FORECAST20247715738.91230.8334.87157.698305600.1518.6818.83TT6.91274.91216321.4897995750318.5494167031630.76918624195799164212127WETL
2023-12-16 07:00:04FORECAST20247715740.06432.23436.14957.55114061666700.1518.6818.83TT8.06476.06416321.3864583893718.4961572590590.81226508295618164212127WETL
2023-12-16 03:00:04FORECAST20247715738.60631.22634.91657.67709261666700.1518.6818.83TT6.60674.60616321.4749059219618.5417379227950.75688058933589164212127WETL
2023-12-15 23:00:01FORECAST20247715740.49632.2736.38358.541357600.1518.6818.83TT8.49667.49616322.0810578606318.8550623844060.82705056704286164212127WETL
2023-12-15 19:00:01FORECAST20247715740.87432.1836.52758.54539200.1518.6818.83TT8.87467.87416322.0838842665618.8565272612680.83936275995309164212127WETL
2023-12-15 15:00:01FORECAST20247715740.92832.28836.60858.549229600.1518.6818.83TT8.92867.92816322.0865727721518.8579207003140.84107384890104164212127WETL
2023-12-15 11:00:03FORECAST20247715740.02832.23436.13158.259146400.1518.6818.83TT8.02867.02816321.8832754278618.7526448668630.81099875907845164212127WETL
2023-12-15 07:00:04FORECAST20247715739.14632.84635.99658.10191986666700.1518.6818.83TT7.14666.14616321.7730246467218.6956304932790.77835718657382164212127WETL
2023-12-15 03:00:04FORECAST20247715741.05434.62837.84157.63235506666700.1518.6818.83TT9.05469.05416321.4434930202818.5255455236150.84501989019583164212127WETL
2023-12-14 23:00:02FORECAST20247715739.7432.70236.22158.22460800.1118.6818.79TT7.7463.7416321.8590600985618.7401176054870.80068022374624164212127WETL
2023-12-14 19:00:02FORECAST20247715740.69433.76437.22958.026430400.1118.6818.79TT8.69464.69416321.7200740880518.6682674873530.83357279391291164212127WETL
2023-12-14 15:00:02FORECAST20247715741.07234.77237.92257.84084800.1118.6818.79TT9.07265.07216321.5898579008118.6010300891820.8455782965797164212127WETL
2023-12-14 11:00:03FORECAST20247715741.43235.2438.33658.05738408815700.1118.6818.79TT9.43266.43216321.7417871542218.6794865140230.85646772453572165212128WETL
2023-12-14 07:00:05FORECAST20247715741.43233.9837.70658.33520422130900.1718.6818.85TT9.43266.43216321.9365930835718.7802369038430.85646772453572165212128WETL
2023-12-14 03:00:06FORECAST20247715741.84634.1638.00358.1800361932800.1118.6818.79TT9.84665.84616321.8278070751918.7239534636380.86833659244094165212128WETL
2023-12-13 23:00:02FORECAST20247715739.70433.90836.80659.35969435070300.0918.6818.77TT7.70449.70416322.6537728920719.1526293399740.79936702245038164211123.5WETL
2023-12-13 19:00:03FORECAST20247715740.85634.8837.86858.93969771724900.0818.6818.76TT8.85651.85616322.3599858937618.9998001247150.83878973995129164211123.5WETL
2023-12-13 15:00:02FORECAST20247715742.67433.83638.25559.02643361561200.0618.6818.74TT10.67455.67416322.420683202519.0313430533530.89000427309232165211124WETL
2023-12-13 11:00:02FORECAST20247715743.37635.94239.65958.69928454035800.0918.6818.77TT11.37655.37616322.1916761464818.9124208746570.90627187625936165211124WETL
2023-12-13 07:00:05FORECAST20247715742.3535.67239.01158.88326733720100.118.6818.78TT10.3555.3516322.3204890408318.9792835244480.88185075807965165212128WETL
2023-12-13 03:00:04FORECAST20247715741.0934.39437.74259.01545042975200.0918.6818.77TT9.0953.0916322.4129979683419.0273482995080.84613537473215164211123.5WETL
2023-12-12 23:00:03FORECAST20247715741.34234.03437.68860.53015298798600.1218.6818.8TT9.34252.34216323.4708550945819.579740346030.85379509114166165212128WETL
2023-12-12 19:00:02FORECAST20247715742.2636.10439.18260.83036056010600.1318.6818.81TT10.2650.2616323.6800350283219.689573236880.87951213011935165212128WETL
2023-12-12 15:00:03FORECAST20247715741.05433.06237.05861.01581584866200.1318.6818.81TT9.05450.05416323.8091776877319.7574811559010.84501989019583164212127WETL
2023-12-12 11:00:03FORECAST20247715741.28833.42237.35561.10005650088900.1618.6818.84TT9.28850.28816323.8678189714219.7883420379740.85217561233583165212128WETL
2023-12-12 07:00:05FORECAST20247715740.89233.4437.16661.30068568547400.2118.6818.89TT8.89244.89216324.0074296824219.861877606720.83993445147622164212127WETL
2023-12-12 03:00:04FORECAST20247715740.33430.59635.46561.12158869732500.1418.6818.82TT8.33444.33416323.8828058690619.7962316464640.82159502902259164212127WETL
2023-12-11 23:00:03FORECAST20247715739.59633.31436.45563.72301687865200.0618.6818.74TT7.59646.59616325.6874406951520.7537862805820.79539643336529164211123.5WETL
2023-12-11 19:00:03FORECAST20247715739.14631.9135.52863.99830031893900.0318.6818.71TT7.14641.14616325.8777106160720.8556195912550.77835718657382164211123.5WETL
2023-12-11 15:00:03FORECAST20247715738.26430.86634.56564.52870053922900.1118.6818.79TT6.26441.26416326.2439368005121.0520973005390.74271851599701164212127WETL
2023-12-11 11:00:03FORECAST20247715736.91429.53433.22464.85709281370800.1318.6818.81TT4.91437.91416326.4704350956821.1739233099320.68292437597172163212126WETL
2023-12-11 07:00:06FORECAST20247715738.35429.9334.14264.12807998456100.0918.6818.77TT6.35443.35416325.9673653612120.903661278240.74648642978897164211123.5WETL
2023-12-11 03:00:06FORECAST20247715738.35431.06434.70964.19729409087300.0918.6818.77TT6.35438.35416326.0151679578320.9292916154740.74648642978897164211123.5WETL
2023-12-10 23:00:02FORECAST20247715735.83430.7433.28756.52666184830100.1118.0818.19TT3.83436.83416320.6659844744618.126177670640.63126889002235163212126WETL
2023-12-10 19:00:03FORECAST20247715734.71829.19231.95557.129487264500.1518.1118.26TT2.71832.71816321.0901538778818.3437158567220.57528807664682163212126WETL
2023-12-10 15:00:05FORECAST20247715732.95428.81430.88456.88682776973100.0818.0818.16TT0.95427.95416320.9194881229118.2560916487980.48408185284373162211122.5WETL
2023-12-10 11:00:03FORECAST20247715731.127.98629.54362.0710594951280.0129921330.39299213318.0818.472992133TT-0.926.116324.5428448185320.1447182294490.38920198380969162212125WETL
2023-12-10 07:00:04FORECAST20247715730.99226.92428.95862.1445339391050.0122047310.39220473118.0918.482204731TT-1.00822.99216324.5938553615220.1717338609390.38381862351081162212125WETL
2023-12-10 03:00:06FORECAST20247715731.06423.30627.18563.9083103582730.3988191130.67881911318.0218.698819113TT-0.93624.06416325.8155261506420.8223197647790.38740511017869162213127.5WETL
2023-12-09 23:00:03FORECAST20247715731.83822.40627.12262.1673905816040.4614175720.68141757218.1318.811417572TT-0.16225.83816324.6097219274720.1801393696510.42650743212077162213127.5WETL
2023-12-09 19:00:03FORECAST20247715731.17221.32626.24962.3970145152410.5362207620.76622076217.8918.656220762TT-0.82818.17216324.7690705845620.2646204113660.3928028101884162213127.5WETL
2023-12-09 15:00:04FORECAST20247715738.0328.8533.4458.8897310086950.1003937550.22039375517.8318.050393755TT6.0326.0316322.3250133924818.9816333360570.73278762747945164212127WETL
2023-12-09 11:00:04FORECAST20247715735.630.8333.21566.1590457108460.1385827520.16858275217.9118.078582752TT3.627.616327.3665593666221.6582591653380.61971660461617163212126WETL
2023-12-09 07:00:05FORECAST20247715734.8829.76832.32465.5810602095710.1240158150.16401581517.7417.904015815TT2.8827.8816326.9691020958521.4429803712170.58353861620594163212126WETL
2023-12-09 03:00:06FORECAST20247715733.90829.31831.61365.97245802437900.0617.7717.83TT1.90821.90816327.2383143289121.5887159560320.53361060612523163211123WETL
2023-12-08 23:00:03FORECAST2024771573226.29429.14755.13440255134600.0417.1817.22TT02216319.683855573517.6255783823560.43479780267698162211122.5WETL
2023-12-08 19:00:03FORECAST20247715731.9126.6929.354.33250046685300.0617.1117.17TT-0.0919.9116319.1165987167217.3384027487570.43018826010375162211122.5WETL
2023-12-08 15:00:04FORECAST20247715731.78427.46429.62455.6620259085460017.2517.25TT-0.21620.78416320.0564609155517.8149910196790.4237509869157162211122.5WETL
2023-12-08 11:00:03FORECAST20247715731.5527.91429.73255.2950053379010017.1717.17TT-0.4524.5516319.7973254396617.6831948172320.4118511159122162211122.5WETL
2023-12-08 07:00:05FORECAST20247715729.3924.56626.97855.1173380214750017.2517.25TT-2.6121.3916319.6717963377817.6194584546820.30708268633018162211122.5WETL
2023-12-08 03:00:10FORECAST20247715730.81226.97828.89554.2459000809830017.1417.14TT-1.18823.81216319.055269386517.3074402634510.37489643571555162211122.5WETL
2023-12-07 23:00:04FORECAST20247715731.3727.71629.54350.5791397349410017.8917.89TT-0.636.3716316.4460976190616.0055713900510.40275160751513162211122.5WETL
2023-12-07 19:00:04FORECAST20247715731.15426.94229.04851.2531796232060018.2418.24TT-0.84612.15416316.9275517005616.2435447348520.39190173010041162211122.5WETL
2023-12-07 15:00:06FORECAST20247715730.16427.62628.89550.750513970990018.2418.24TT-1.83612.16416316.5685851849416.0660184052050.34335739057028162211122.5WETL
2023-12-07 11:00:05FORECAST20247715729.82226.70828.26564.4483743364841.3984259521.39842595217.4618.858425952TT-2.1782.82216326.188505551921.0223189100670.327125320242131622141210WETL
2023-12-07 07:00:07FORECAST20247715729.64225.2527.44665.1942439733691.4078747761.40787477617.4818.887874776TT-2.358-1.35816326.7027780895421.2991406215470.318709204170641622141210WETL
2023-12-07 03:00:07FORECAST20247715732.25224.09828.17557.4787414118160.4972443630.49724436317.3717.867244363TT0.25212.25216321.3356045378718.4699661196420.44774978040753162213127.5WETL
2023-12-06 23:00:04FORECAST20247715731.44225.89828.6754.0684001744160.051181130.0511811316.9216.97118113TT-0.55811.44216318.9295239618617.2440091290060.4063853896366162211122.5WETL
2023-12-06 19:00:04FORECAST20247715731.35229.9330.64154.4775550029320.051181130.0511811317.0317.08118113TT-0.64812.35216319.2192943412817.3902866654740.40184445957985162211122.5WETL
2023-12-06 15:00:05FORECAST20247715726.0625.03425.54751.81330193620.1086614760.10866147616.3916.498661476TT-5.946.0616317.3270099779816.4417601805010.17412460816406161212124WETL
2023-12-06 11:28:58FORECAST20247715726.25824.67425.46653.2249835134680.110236280.1102362816.0516.16023628TT-5.7425.25816318.3312509546216.9431755838810.18083541389692161212124WETL
2023-12-06 11:00:05FORECAST20247715728.32827.48227.90515.4516982722970015.8115.81TT-3.6728.32816290.179353845554.48376382047140.26028137607596162211327.5WETL
2023-12-06 07:00:09FORECAST20247715728.32827.48227.90514.9550245986640015.8715.87TT-3.67212.32816289.790903542914.33383009095330.26028137607596162211327.5WETL
2023-12-06 03:00:10FORECAST20247715722.69422.42422.55913.2271897284340015.4915.49TT-9.30613.69416288.435733432763.81519417057510.084258979864019161211326WETL