MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, December 15, 2023

[ Thursday, December 14, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, December 16, 2023 ]

DAY 76 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/16/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.10°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.17°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.64°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.972
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 77

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.15 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 18.68 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 18.83 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 58 in
SWE DAY: 17
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 322.73 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.71 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 156

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-16 07:00:04OBSERVATION20247615647.1000238.1700442.6350357.97396541666700.1518.6818.83TT15.1000277.1000217322.73089942862 18.7099900023650.9719330534240616 5212128WETL
2023-12-16 03:00:03OBSERVATION20247615647.1000238.1700442.6350357.97396541666700.1518.6818.83TT15.1000277.1000217322.73089942862 18.7099900023650.9719330534240616 5212128WETL
2023-12-15 11:00:02FORECAST20247615638.1231.1934.65558.698010400.1518.6818.83TT6.1268.1217323.2364907854618.9733388977850.75738413543569164212127WETL
2023-12-15 07:00:04FORECAST20247615637.65230.61434.13358.60385826666700.1518.6818.83TT5.65267.65217323.1707981361318.9390556498950.73724173330406164212127WETL
2023-12-15 03:00:04FORECAST20247615639.03833.29636.16758.32666546666700.1518.6818.83TT7.03869.03817322.9773015165318.8381890188810.79434694709551164212127WETL
2023-12-14 23:00:02FORECAST20247615638.87631.13635.00658.639462400.1118.6818.79TT6.87664.87617323.1956420103818.9520186975110.78807769681382164212127WETL
2023-12-14 19:00:02FORECAST20247615639.36231.94635.65458.58081600.1118.6818.79TT7.36265.36217323.1547184914118.9306671034770.80655093145298164212127WETL
2023-12-14 15:00:02FORECAST20247615639.03832.61235.82558.503178400.1118.6818.79TT7.03865.03817323.1005335157318.9024081534060.79434694709551164212127WETL
2023-12-14 11:00:02FORECAST20247615639.50632.82836.16758.75267848815700.1118.6818.79TT7.50665.50617323.2746270731518.9932502278080.8118303572264164212127WETL
2023-12-14 07:00:05FORECAST20247615640.06432.75636.4158.96644022130900.1718.6818.85TT8.06466.06417323.4236957657519.0711440225260.83143805701918164212127WETL
2023-12-14 03:00:05FORECAST20247615639.93832.50436.22158.8167825932800.1118.6818.79TT7.93864.93817323.3193391519319.0166032791020.82712919716298164212127WETL
2023-12-13 23:00:02FORECAST20247615637.74232.52235.13259.90581435070300.0918.6818.77TT5.74250.74217324.0778183696819.4141456224350.74118053409164164211123.5WETL
2023-12-13 19:00:03FORECAST20247615639.18233.58436.38359.64148651724900.0818.6818.76TT7.18252.18217323.8939144276919.3175145303580.79982628495617164211123.5WETL
2023-12-13 15:00:02FORECAST20247615639.57832.43236.00559.69014161561200.0618.6818.74TT7.57853.57817323.9277750896719.3352947683320.81443647471549164211123.5WETL
2023-12-13 11:00:02FORECAST20247615638.7532.91835.83459.58242454035800.0918.6818.77TT6.7552.7517323.8528056578819.2959353552930.78312537939419164211123.5WETL
2023-12-13 07:00:04FORECAST20247615639.16434.05236.60859.76345533720100.118.6818.78TT7.16454.16417323.9787885852219.3620918618130.79914619547327164212127WETL
2023-12-13 03:00:04FORECAST20247615639.1132.936.00559.73003122975200.0918.6818.77TT7.1153.1117323.9555324451619.349874070.79709764106083164211123.5WETL
2023-12-12 23:00:02FORECAST20247615639.21833.56636.39261.25329458798600.1218.6818.8TT7.21852.21817325.0134001402119.9081415438310.8011823138529164212127WETL
2023-12-12 19:00:02FORECAST20247615638.73233.22435.97861.69854376010600.1318.6818.81TT6.73248.73217325.3218421267320.0718839125740.78241249450037164212127WETL
2023-12-12 15:00:03FORECAST20247615639.27231.94635.60961.65098784866200.1318.6818.81TT7.27250.27217325.2889148731420.0543829381490.80320596493322164212127WETL
2023-12-12 11:00:02FORECAST20247615638.85831.85635.35761.71584370088900.1618.6818.84TT6.85849.85817325.3338194519920.0782511519120.78737429205104164212127WETL
2023-12-12 07:00:05FORECAST20247615637.7630.72234.24161.84798648547400.2118.6818.89TT5.7644.7617325.4252889419620.1268988725140.7419646168779164212127WETL
2023-12-12 03:00:04FORECAST20247615637.8530.6534.2561.60473269732500.1418.6818.82TT5.8544.8517325.256884437420.0373634237310.74586649742186164212127WETL
2023-12-11 23:00:03FORECAST20247615639.86633.13436.564.20183127865200.0618.6818.74TT7.86647.86617327.0494912182320.9971762549620.82463583378595164211123.5WETL
2023-12-11 19:00:03FORECAST20247615638.2131.6434.92564.35903471893900.0318.6818.71TT6.2143.2117327.1576193539221.0555485825650.76115967169479164211123.5WETL
2023-12-11 15:00:03FORECAST20247615638.7531.85635.30364.8402349392290.0125984320.11259843218.6818.792598432TT6.7543.7517327.4883316911621.2344203667110.78312537939419164212127WETL
2023-12-11 11:00:02FORECAST20247615637.20229.26433.23365.03145761370800.1318.6818.81TT5.20242.20217327.6196402596921.3055827489660.71709902788759164212127WETL
2023-12-11 07:00:06FORECAST20247615638.31830.32634.32264.42180398456100.0918.6818.77TT6.31846.31817327.2007814361121.0788646052730.7656476383009164211123.5WETL
2023-12-11 03:00:06FORECAST20247615638.08430.23634.1664.48186689087300.0918.6818.77TT6.08441.08417327.2420760998621.1011799921640.75586493538303164211123.5WETL
2023-12-10 23:00:02FORECAST20247615637.79631.92834.86256.72237944830100.1118.0818.19TT5.79641.79617321.8547371196818.2563665261360.74352908365365164212127WETL
2023-12-10 19:00:03FORECAST20247615636.64429.19232.91857.214996864500.1818.0818.26TT4.64438.64417322.1999222670418.4346675422510.69113842398731163212126WETL
2023-12-10 15:00:04FORECAST20247615634.89830.95632.92756.89981656973100.0818.0818.16TT2.89835.89817321.9791200076518.3205528677190.60407051091918163211123WETL
2023-12-10 11:00:03FORECAST20247615633.99825.7929.89462.00109330242300.3818.0818.46TT1.99835.99817325.5312313892820.183292250220.55672535977276163212126WETL
2023-12-10 07:00:04FORECAST20247615633.6225.7929.70562.07734418261900.3818.0918.47TT1.6232.6217325.5839779114120.2113886571530.5365545768244163212126WETL
2023-12-10 03:00:06FORECAST20247615633.54826.18629.86761.79761320474800.2818.0218.3TT1.54833.54817325.3904240809820.1083515678850.53270022562957163212126WETL
2023-12-09 23:00:03FORECAST20247615634.9727.69831.33459.62246384563800.2618.0918.35TT2.9734.9717323.8806747952719.3105638232820.60780224130947163212126WETL
2023-12-09 19:00:03FORECAST20247615633.4428.09430.76759.41491429031100.2817.8418.12TT1.4428.4417323.7361803353119.2347574072950.52691305813295163212126WETL
2023-12-09 15:00:04FORECAST20247615634.8828.07631.47858.55236145675200.1717.7817.95TT2.8828.8817323.1348606850218.9203091621070.60313607176541163212126WETL
2023-12-09 11:00:04FORECAST20247615634.32228.09431.20866.37680491084600.0617.8817.94TT2.32233.32217328.5416612223721.8075457520420.57390036389254163211123WETL
2023-12-09 07:00:05FORECAST20247615634.44828.95831.70365.73574500957100.0717.7117.78TT2.44834.44817328.1027098804721.5680760736520.58054370743889163211123WETL
2023-12-09 03:00:06FORECAST20247615633.06227.03230.04766.02795562437900.1117.7217.83TT1.06229.06217328.3028831708121.6771682013580.50662121463607163212126WETL
2023-12-08 23:00:03FORECAST20247615631.02825.05228.0455.13440255134600.0917.1317.22TT-0.97231.02817320.7390707437317.6837570403290.39844598082912162211122.5WETL
2023-12-08 19:00:03FORECAST20247615631.0125.05228.03154.33250046685300.1217.0517.17TT-0.9929.0117320.1739653725917.395852123080.39751054252941162212125WETL
2023-12-08 15:00:03FORECAST20247615631.67627.37429.52555.66202590854600.217.0517.25TT-0.32429.67617321.1102628722817.8736477714970.43246999443371162212125WETL
2023-12-08 11:00:03FORECAST20247615633.47629.5731.52355.29500533790100.2316.9417.17TT1.47634.47617320.852110242617.7415191485420.52884280597614163212126WETL
2023-12-08 07:00:05FORECAST20247615631.80226.16828.98555.11733802147500.1717.0817.25TT-0.19832.80217320.7270572461417.6776216268690.43915274708296162212125WETL
2023-12-08 03:00:09FORECAST20247615631.0124.78227.89654.2459000809830017.1417.14TT-0.9934.0117320.1128686515817.3648106875110.39751054252941162211122.5WETL
2023-12-07 23:00:04FORECAST20247615631.11825.35828.23850.5791397349410017.8917.89TT-0.88216.11817317.5135929224816.0595643841690.40313182569155162211122.5WETL
2023-12-07 19:00:04FORECAST20247615631.17225.44828.3151.2531796232060018.2418.24TT-0.82822.17217317.9932209501716.2981636723210.40595006945944162211122.5WETL
2023-12-07 15:00:05FORECAST20247615630.4725.35827.91450.750513970990018.2418.24TT-1.5323.4717317.6356159188516.1201707633740.36974388506178162211122.5WETL
2023-12-07 11:00:05FORECAST20247615629.58825.93427.76152.90913398420400.0817.3817.46TT-2.41213.58817319.1680710780516.8869062361490.32587399252109162211122.5WETL
2023-12-07 07:00:07FORECAST20247615629.04823.57626.31253.42516985546200.0617.4217.48TT-2.95210.04817319.5331743610917.0711141146960.30011349731746162211122.5WETL
2023-12-07 03:00:06FORECAST20247615631.56826.81629.19253.06009664165300.1517.2217.37TT-0.43220.56817319.2749289959416.9407585877820.42675717996658162212125WETL
2023-12-06 23:00:04FORECAST20247615631.87425.73628.80553.62157865735100.1116.8116.92TT-0.12620.87417319.672010911517.1413178776450.44297938997442162212125WETL
2023-12-06 19:00:04FORECAST20247615633.24229.13831.1954.02870501560200.1216.9117.03TT1.24222.24217319.9595780269817.2870016581360.5162893637692163212126WETL
2023-12-06 15:00:04FORECAST20247615628.9424.94426.94250.6359798344480016.3916.39TT-3.0620.9417317.5540704663116.0796615084790.29507378938296162211122.5WETL
2023-12-06 11:28:58FORECAST20247615629.80425.86227.83352.0544531553420016.0516.05TT-2.19619.80417318.5623176405816.5825872406790.33642486567351162211122.5WETL
2023-12-06 11:00:05FORECAST20247615631.62224.99828.3115.4516982722970015.8115.81TT-0.37820.62217291.346473369414.50179779920180.42961174497353162211327.5WETL
2023-12-06 07:00:09FORECAST20247615632.3624.99828.67914.9550245986640015.8715.87TT0.3625.3617290.959496376864.35130642553070.46893073317764162211327.5WETL
2023-12-06 03:00:10FORECAST20247615634.6122.128.35513.2271897284340015.4915.49TT2.6131.6117289.609466141173.83071935579980.58905127976698163211329WETL
2023-12-05 23:00:03FORECAST20247615628.45424.54826.50156.91541999622400.0914.0214.11TT-3.5467.45417321.9900552813118.3261992309430.27289188726221162211122.5WETL
2023-12-05 19:00:04FORECAST20247615628.8524.54826.69956.8204607875170014.1214.12TT-3.155.8517321.9234987723818.2918415385760.29090401920362162211122.5WETL
2023-12-05 15:00:04FORECAST20247615627.91424.36826.14158.67957085126200.0614.214.26TT-4.0869.91417323.2236262194418.9666236755450.24925503477062162211122.5WETL
2023-12-05 11:00:08FORECAST20247615627.10425.53826.32158.32645940991800.1114.2514.36TT-4.89615.10417322.9771576263118.8381140746220.21594392741927161212124WETL
2023-12-05 07:00:10FORECAST20247615625.44824.90825.17857.638032815400.0414.4514.49TT-6.55216.44817322.4960060190318.588035377760.15645461057776161211122WETL