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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 14, 2023

[ Wednesday, December 13, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, December 15, 2023 ]

DAY 75 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/15/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.70°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.48°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.09°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.790
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 80

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.15 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.15 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 18.68 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 18.83 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 59 in
SWE DAY: 18
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 324.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 19.10 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 155

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-15 07:00:04OBSERVATION20247515538.6999631.4799835.0899758.8843966666670.149999999999980.1499999999999818.6818.83TT6.6999679.6999618324.40773922454 19.1025539982340.7895458258563116 4212127WETL
2023-12-15 03:00:04OBSERVATION20247515538.6999631.4799835.0899758.8843966666670.149999999999980.1499999999999818.6818.83TT6.6999679.6999618324.40773922454 19.1025539982340.7895458258563116 4212127WETL
2023-12-14 11:00:02FORECAST20247515534.89829.89432.39659.2352320881570.1106299810.11062998118.6818.790629981TT2.89875.89818324.6513456292719.2307978060820.61859001578312163212126WETL
2023-12-14 07:00:04FORECAST20247515534.729.33632.01859.4560786213090.1673229250.16732292518.6818.847322925TT2.775.718324.8045815321319.3116067361360.60856607522112163212126WETL
2023-12-14 03:00:05FORECAST20247515534.10628.79631.45159.308585793280.1078740740.10787407418.6818.787874074TT2.10675.10618324.702252141819.2576313784240.57808455713418163212126WETL
2023-12-13 23:00:02FORECAST20247515533.76429.10231.43360.2656631507030.0917323330.09173233318.6818.771732333TT1.76462.76418325.3655828460419.6083726166320.56030723518908163212126WETL
2023-12-13 19:00:02FORECAST20247515534.3429.4831.9160.1482465172490.0763779940.07637799418.6818.756377994TT2.3463.3418325.2842905370519.5652796954110.59015922325684163211123WETL
2023-12-13 15:00:01FORECAST20247515535.1529.37232.26160.1025360156120.0574803460.05748034618.6818.737480346TT3.1564.1518325.2526367413919.5485083139220.63123283529161163211123WETL
2023-12-13 11:00:02FORECAST20247515534.62829.55232.0960.0128261403580.0921260340.09212603418.6818.772126034TT2.62863.62818325.190503393919.5156011426740.60490266958393163212126WETL
2023-12-13 07:00:04FORECAST20247515535.40230.50632.95460.2714945372010.102362260.1023622618.6818.78236226TT3.40265.40218325.3696195200919.6105132454760.64373525243377163212126WETL
2023-12-13 03:00:03FORECAST20247515534.9730.81232.89160.2035320297520.0948819410.09488194118.6818.774881941TT2.9763.9718325.3225699652919.5855677609070.62221584950883163212126WETL
2023-12-12 23:00:02FORECAST20247515535.43831.3733.40461.8189961879860.1192914030.11929140318.6818.799291403TT3.43863.43818326.4387396555720.1801152023780.64550913576011163212126WETL
2023-12-12 19:00:02FORECAST20247515533.51230.43431.97362.1555133601060.1275591240.12755912418.6818.807559124TT1.51259.51218326.6706730127220.3043833807970.54712779111355163212126WETL
2023-12-12 15:00:03FORECAST20247515534.26829.69631.98262.1068750486620.1271654230.12716542318.6818.807165423TT2.26861.26818326.6371629161620.2864134634840.58645247475912163212126WETL
2023-12-12 11:00:02FORECAST20247515534.48429.49831.99162.1537237008890.1637796160.16377961618.6818.843779616TT2.48461.48418326.6694400734320.3037221198480.59754828705399163212126WETL
2023-12-12 07:00:05FORECAST20247515533.00828.36430.68662.1088448854740.2066930250.20669302518.6818.886693025TT1.00857.00818326.6385201453120.2871411813260.52062707874597163212126WETL
2023-12-12 03:00:04FORECAST20247515533.3527.96830.65961.8881246973250.1421260610.14212606118.6818.822126061TT1.3557.3518326.4864003803320.2056310587190.53862685515308163212126WETL
2023-12-11 23:00:03FORECAST20247515534.1628.68831.42464.7369304786520.0586614490.05866144918.6818.738661449TT2.1658.1618328.4432517509921.2624079547860.58087797882564163211123WETL
2023-12-11 19:00:02FORECAST20247515533.74628.72431.23564.7770379189390.0326771830.03267718318.6818.712677183TT1.74654.74618328.4707006927421.2773590340340.55936788254048163211123WETL
2023-12-11 15:00:03FORECAST20247515533.6227.96830.79465.1498444553610.1027559610.10275596118.6818.782755961TT1.6254.6218328.7257102456321.4164288909810.55278334952335163212126WETL
2023-12-11 11:00:02FORECAST20247515533.1727.82430.49765.2147768137080.1275591240.12755912418.6818.807559124TT1.1755.1718328.7701010133421.4406687606060.52916079645599163212126WETL
2023-12-11 07:00:06FORECAST20247515534.14228.5831.36164.6749871845610.0862205190.08622051918.6818.766220519TT2.14258.14218328.4008531776221.2393209706620.57994728378963163211123WETL
2023-12-11 03:00:06FORECAST20247515532.7228.27430.49764.7759844908730.0862205190.08622051918.6818.766220519TT0.7252.7218328.4699797778321.2769663158060.50543515972208163211123WETL
2023-12-10 23:00:02FORECAST20247515533.2628.99431.12757.0570378483010.1090551770.10905517718.0818.189055177TT1.2654.2618323.1353767029518.4371474186650.53389622280064163212126WETL
2023-12-10 19:00:03FORECAST20247515532.88227.87830.3857.42094806450.1511811840.18118118418.0818.261181184TT0.88251.88218323.3892330809118.5693163573570.51398299797134163212126WETL
2023-12-10 15:00:03FORECAST20247515532.7228.79630.75857.0849069697310.0779527980.07795279818.0818.157952798TT0.7250.7218323.1548259341418.447263175270.50543515972208163211123WETL
2023-12-10 11:00:03FORECAST20247515532.77423.77428.27462.0279565024230.3755907540.37559075418.0818.455590754TT0.77451.77418326.582781987320.2572625955490.50828491039441163212126WETL
2023-12-10 07:00:04FORECAST20247515531.47825.21428.34662.0957449826190.3814962690.38149626918.0918.471496269TT-0.52249.47818326.629494107620.2823017699070.44010799264128162212125WETL
2023-12-10 03:00:05FORECAST20247515531.3725.59228.48161.8195564047480.2846458230.28464582318.0218.304645823TT-0.6350.3718326.4391259312520.1803219582240.43447824689625162212125WETL
2023-12-09 23:00:03FORECAST20247515531.58624.74628.16659.7280470456380.2169292510.25692925118.0918.346929251TT-0.41449.58618324.9931706458319.4112073858450.44574987236778162212125WETL
2023-12-09 19:00:02FORECAST20247515530.75824.58427.67159.4589974903110.2259843740.27598437417.8418.115984374TT-1.24244.75818324.806606234219.3126751849160.40285915072719162212125WETL
2023-12-09 15:00:03FORECAST20247515532.0926.38429.23758.6590270567520.1153543930.16535439317.7817.945354393TT0.09000000000000344.0918324.2511368220919.020256208030.47220577284745162212125WETL
2023-12-09 11:00:03FORECAST20247515533.96228.5831.27166.4667425108460.0299212760.05992127617.8817.939921276TT1.96248.96218329.6245728461921.9090716086150.57061657484729163211123WETL
2023-12-09 07:00:04FORECAST20247515533.92629.67831.80265.8192866095710.0437008110.07370081117.7117.783700811TT1.92649.92618329.1830207395721.6665915890620.56874551459547163211123WETL
2023-12-09 03:00:06FORECAST20247515530.9227.24829.08466.0440932243790.0570866450.10708664517.7217.827086645TT-1.0845.9218329.3364167004821.7507250067490.41117622407759162212125WETL
2023-12-08 23:00:03FORECAST20247515532.14427.15829.65155.1344025513460.0437008110.09370081117.1317.223700811TT0.14450.14418321.7902837053117.7417150389210.47504971511725162212125WETL
2023-12-08 19:00:02FORECAST20247515532.01826.65429.33654.3325004668530.0570866450.11708664517.0517.167086645TT0.01800000000000148.01818321.2273216596917.4530836040410.46841607792966162212125WETL
2023-12-08 15:00:03FORECAST20247515532.97226.47429.72355.66202590854600.217.0517.25TT0.97247.97218322.1600679803917.9320820506230.5187292737892163212126WETL
2023-12-08 11:00:03FORECAST20247515533.8927.87830.88455.32452533790100.2316.9417.17TT1.8950.8918321.9235881771517.8102697109750.56687291055355163212126WETL
2023-12-08 07:00:04FORECAST20247515534.728.23831.46955.11733802147500.1717.0817.25TT2.750.718321.7783157723917.7355641984080.60856607522112163212126WETL
2023-12-08 03:00:09FORECAST20247515533.11627.78830.45254.2459000809830017.1417.14TT1.11653.11618321.1664566656617.4219635176490.52631751697672163211123WETL
2023-12-07 23:00:04FORECAST20247515531.15425.95228.55350.5791397349410017.8917.89TT-0.84635.15418318.5770394413116.1133525942460.4232596307576162211122.5WETL
2023-12-07 19:00:04FORECAST20247515530.79426.38428.58951.2531796232060018.2418.24TT-1.20640.79418319.0548483410316.3525754516770.40470373733706162211122.5WETL
2023-12-07 15:00:05FORECAST20247515530.52426.67228.59850.750513970990018.2418.24TT-1.47642.52418318.6985996301916.1741177330670.39092370933713162211122.5WETL
2023-12-07 11:00:04FORECAST20247515531.31625.80828.56252.90913398420400.0817.3817.46TT-0.68434.31618320.2252425101116.9428402610910.43166827469311162211122.5WETL
2023-12-07 07:00:06FORECAST20247515530.16423.68426.92453.42516985546200.0617.4217.48TT-1.83631.16418320.5889610333817.1275196969940.37276400751259162211122.5WETL
2023-12-07 03:00:06FORECAST20247515532.73824.22428.48153.06009664165300.1517.2217.37TT0.73838.73818320.3316951384516.996830701430.50638511461668163212126WETL
2023-12-06 23:00:04FORECAST20247515533.54823.86428.70653.62157865735100.1116.8116.92TT1.54838.54818320.7272710060317.1979025898070.54901409748789163212126WETL
2023-12-06 19:00:04FORECAST20247515534.726.92430.81254.04868021560200.1216.9117.03TT2.738.718321.0277954637117.3511286573380.60856607522112163212126WETL
2023-12-06 15:00:04FORECAST20247515530.6524.67427.66250.6359798344480016.3916.39TT-1.3541.6518318.6173634623516.1335023911840.39733850202862162211122.5WETL
2023-12-06 11:28:58FORECAST20247515531.96426.65429.30952.0544531553420016.0516.05TT-0.03600000000000139.96418319.6217865676916.6377373163140.46557566482224162211122.5WETL
2023-12-06 11:00:04FORECAST20247515531.42426.18628.80515.4516982722970015.8115.81TT-0.57639.42418292.509166255014.51976337885350.43729153281553162211327.5WETL
2023-12-06 07:00:09FORECAST20247515531.67626.31228.99414.9569925986640015.8715.87TT-0.32442.67618292.12518547114.36931423697450.45045989437276162211327.5WETL
2023-12-06 03:00:09FORECAST20247515533.15227.93230.54213.2720601284340015.4915.49TT1.15247.15218290.813747994153.85969754955370.52821319458139163211329WETL
2023-12-05 23:00:03FORECAST20247515532.88226.13229.50756.91541999622400.0914.0214.11TT0.88228.88218323.0365235223418.3857594103940.51398299797134163211123WETL
2023-12-05 19:00:04FORECAST20247515532.66626.54629.60656.8204607875170014.1214.12TT0.66626.66618322.9702194482118.3513166896930.50258513165168163211123WETL
2023-12-05 15:00:04FORECAST20247515534.19624.0829.13858.67957085126200.1814.0814.26TT2.19632.19618324.2654157860119.0277554402290.58273800702184163212126WETL
2023-12-05 11:00:07FORECAST20247515539.16428.09433.62958.3264594099180.114173290.1141732914.2514.36417329TT7.16438.16418324.0198819962918.8989324952630.80682739191393164212127WETL
2023-12-05 07:00:10FORECAST20247515534.50225.3429.92157.63803281540.035433090.0354330914.4514.48543309TT2.50240.50218323.540555295618.648241143240.59846953296781163211123WETL
2023-12-04 23:00:05FORECAST20247515531.83821.226.51966.22762607986700.2514.2714.52TT-0.16225.83818329.4615847361621.8194586415870.45895509835796162212125WETL
2023-12-04 19:00:04FORECAST20247515530.84821.18226.01575.93196038944300.9515.3316.28TT-1.15227.84818335.9974435527425.51294457480.40747457945053162213127.5WETL
2023-12-04 15:00:04FORECAST20247515529.85819.02224.4475.46304963014600.6615.1615.82TT-2.14225.85818335.6853230430925.3318381929120.35754572306282162213127.5WETL
2023-12-04 11:00:04FORECAST20247515536.1432.6334.38591.1716692689460.204724521.4747245216.9518.42472452TT4.1432.1418345.9416862829431.540081008130.679429152112651632141212WETL
2023-12-04 07:00:08FORECAST20247515532.95430.45231.70383.799510384610.204724521.2047245214.7915.99472452TT0.95419.95418341.1792455412628.5906537297490.517780209416381632141212WETL
2023-12-04 03:00:06FORECAST20247515534.41234.19634.30487.3545498617710.31496081.844960814.6716.5149608TT2.41224.41218343.4869479534730.0051477218690.593857933104091632151215WETL