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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, December 1, 2023

[ Thursday, November 30, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, December 2, 2023 ]

DAY 62 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/02/2023 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.62°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.02°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.176
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 151

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.78 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.23 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.52 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.75 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 36 in
SWE DAY: 31
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 322.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 11.76 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 142

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-02 07:00:05OBSERVATION20246214226.6199822.0200824.3200336.48614751.782.231.523.75TF-5.38002150.6199831322.35116363585 11.7613521032140.1762639113611416 13151212.5DRYL
2023-12-02 03:00:05OBSERVATION20246214226.6199822.0200824.3200336.48614751.782.231.523.75TF-5.38002150.6199831322.35116363585 11.7613521032140.1762639113611416 13151212.5DRYL
2023-12-01 11:00:01FORECAST20246214224.81820.60622.71231.1908338187841.755906462.205906461.523.72590646TF-7.182148.81831318.619968911489.93802250166410.130628019388021613152225DRYL
2023-12-01 07:00:04FORECAST20246214226.79821.79424.29630.4530000667711.767717492.217717491.523.73771749TF-5.202150.79831318.096080083069.6869799480090.181262659079751613152225DRYL
2023-12-01 03:00:06FORECAST20246214225.59219.59822.59531.41307522181.862205732.312205731.523.83220573TF-6.408149.59231318.7775760915110.0137839767860.149123009437771613151212.5DRYL
2023-11-30 23:00:02FORECAST20246214226.22219.63422.92828.2193792627221.69291432.02291431.523.5429143TF-5.778149.22231316.504129794538.93155007688990.165407063478631613152225DRYL
2023-11-30 19:00:02FORECAST20246214226.07820.24623.16227.6619607588171.606300081.936300081.523.45630008TF-5.922149.07831316.105435243668.74409614535870.161587421833021613152225DRYL
2023-11-30 15:00:01FORECAST20246214226.16820.69623.43227.6512734496841.618111111.948111111.523.46811111TF-5.832149.16831316.097785610748.74050630676220.163967923803011613152225DRYL
2023-11-30 11:00:02FORECAST20246214226.5120.22823.36929.0821822277341.629922141.959922141.523.47992214TF-5.49149.5131317.120139095329.22254567325420.173219629840981613152225DRYL
2023-11-30 07:00:04FORECAST20246214226.56421.43423.99929.0382231777031.590552041.870552041.523.39055204TF-5.436149.56431317.088786592489.20769495221950.174710169920331613152225DRYL
2023-11-30 03:00:05FORECAST20246214227.82422.29825.06129.5869056568851.736221412.036221411.523.55622141TF-4.176150.82431317.479867543119.39324688895840.211767678463231613152225DRYL
2023-11-29 23:00:01FORECAST20246214224.87220.62422.74828.8805636432641.405512571.725512571.523.24551257TF-7.128145.87231316.976311757889.15445454513070.131864612994641613152225DRYL
2023-11-29 19:00:02FORECAST20246214225.48420.44422.96428.5635413881131.374016491.684016491.523.20401649TF-6.516146.48431316.750010641779.04750203865130.146442525608141613152225DRYL
2023-11-29 15:00:02FORECAST20246214225.30420.67822.99128.6923959835081.421260611.721260611.523.24126061TF-6.696147.30431316.842013354179.09095651136990.142047140655671613152225DRYL
2023-11-29 11:00:02FORECAST20246214227.17620.44423.8130.1886180895961.712599352.122599351.523.64259935TF-4.824148.17631317.908120191289.59720682803590.192166968847091613152225DRYL
2023-11-29 07:00:04FORECAST20246214226.16820.35423.26129.3001281799951.570866991.920866991.523.44086699TF-5.832146.16831317.275530958999.29621372547430.163967923803011613152225DRYL
2023-11-29 03:00:04FORECAST20246214226.70821.54224.12529.4305665942151.598426061.978426061.523.49842606TF-5.292148.70831317.368490254069.34033448732770.178724513085461613152225DRYL
2023-11-28 23:00:02FORECAST20246214226.2420.89423.56730.6448673412261.657481212.087481211.523.60748121TF-5.76147.2431318.232407308679.7521899056530.165888582619421613152225DRYL
2023-11-28 19:00:03FORECAST20246214226.5121.50624.00831.4904928218661.826772642.246772641.523.76677264TF-5.49144.5131318.8324575253510.040191215080.173219629840981613151212.5DRYL
2023-11-28 15:00:02FORECAST20246214226.58221.36223.97231.9404445916281.92913492.36913491.523.8891349TF-5.418147.58231319.1512153540210.1938317103660.17520881637221613151212.5DRYL
2023-11-28 11:00:02FORECAST20246214226.63622.11824.37731.5780987483091.826772642.296772641.523.81677264TF-5.364146.63631318.8945484622110.0700835416370.176710151684851613151212.5DRYL
2023-11-28 07:00:04FORECAST20246214226.1520.98423.56730.497069407091.629922142.099922141.523.61992214TF-5.85143.1531318.127398496589.70195335224740.163490016794041613152225DRYL
2023-11-28 03:00:05FORECAST20246214225.46622.42423.94530.924644764821.712599352.172599351.523.69259935TF-6.534144.46631318.431078192619.8473679751850.145998934037091613152225DRYL
2023-11-27 23:00:03FORECAST20246214225.98821.68623.83728.6842549584881.204725061.524725061.523.04472506TF-6.012136.98831316.836201519829.08821038447370.159229506494221613152225DRYL
2023-11-27 19:00:04FORECAST20246214224.49420.96622.7329.0674532665361.251969181.521969181.523.04196918TF-7.506133.49431317.10963448589.21756948078450.123376425654571613152225DRYL
2023-11-27 15:00:03FORECAST20246214226.623.12624.86328.236174136371.228347121.478347121.522.99834712FF-5.4139.631316.516133599038.93720466527280.175708362314221613142220DRYL
2023-11-27 11:00:02FORECAST20246214224.94421.14623.04526.997245224671.043307651.193307651.522.71330765FF-7.056134.94431315.629257782568.52112047243660.133525893951261613142220DRYL
2023-11-27 07:00:06FORECAST20246214226.56423.25224.90826.1262212940431.031496621.181496621.522.70149662FF-5.436144.56431315.004070443778.22986605293820.174710169920331613142220DRYL
2023-11-27 03:00:05FORECAST20246214226.63621.52424.0825.8832332145960.881890241.071890241.522.59189024FF-5.364144.63631314.829416091828.14880319951950.176710151684851613142220DRYL
2023-11-26 23:00:03FORECAST20246214226.45621.88424.1725.8238585361880.897638280.987638281.522.50763828FF-5.544132.45631314.786722521348.12900779146150.171737193282241613132215DRYL
2023-11-26 19:00:03FORECAST20246214225.39421.0223.20725.9839036551240.917323330.997323331.522.51732333FF-6.606135.39431314.901788813048.18237774134420.144233577860811613142220DRYL
2023-11-26 15:00:03FORECAST20246214223.9920.31822.15426.557643416570.980315491.040315491.522.56031549FF-8.01126.9931315.313901462928.37399415933940.112663453207561613142220DRYL
2023-11-26 11:00:04FORECAST20246214227.15823.91825.53824.0800157962410.822835090.852835091.522.37283509FF-4.842139.15831313.529930398267.54980567658450.191638807425771613132215DRYL
2023-11-26 07:00:07FORECAST20246214226.43821.86624.15225.1850962917730.818898080.838898081.522.35889808FF-5.562133.43831314.32701082697.91635603478060.171244849502621613132215DRYL
2023-11-26 03:00:05FORECAST20246214226.54623.01824.78228.5561142551321.303150311.453150311.522.97315031FF-5.454132.54631316.744706720319.04499803481340.17421242319571613142220DRYL
2023-11-25 23:00:03FORECAST20246214227.44619.83223.63926.4578996229760.696850770.886850771.522.40685077FF-4.554128.44631315.242299421058.34064911499810.200195619601581613132215DRYL
2023-11-25 19:00:03FORECAST20246214225.71820.323.00926.3973602942850.66929170.84929171.522.3692917FF-6.282123.71831315.198831834228.32041712826580.152291295354151613132215DRYL
2023-11-25 15:00:03FORECAST20246214225.14220.7522.94625.8703129158550.535433360.755433361.522.27543336FF-6.858128.14231314.820126253858.14449517839610.138168190707591613132215DRYL
2023-11-25 11:00:03FORECAST20246214225.23222.53223.88225.3092548790020.574803460.794803461.522.31480346FF-6.768127.23231314.416425102347.95764544105980.140314180280781613132215DRYL
2023-11-25 07:00:05FORECAST20246214228.68822.22625.45724.295658514330.531496350.741496351.522.26149635FF-3.312136.68831313.685646479267.62119934770710.239638294687141613132215DRYL
2023-11-25 03:00:05FORECAST20246214230.03823.8126.92421.3861793865580.062992160.262992161.521.78299216FF-1.962146.03831311.577500440256.66345231723070.286912119705381623122212DRYL
2023-11-24 23:00:02FORECAST20246214226.00622.24424.12525.0783604541990.429134090.619134091.522.13913409FF-5.994133.00631314.250121207337.88087781241320.159699282397481613132215DRYL
2023-11-24 19:00:02FORECAST20246214226.31220.15623.23426.5559045811660.566929440.756929441.522.27692944FF-5.688128.31231315.312653378558.37341273635510.167823685941991613132215DRYL
2023-11-24 15:00:03FORECAST20246214226.67222.94624.80926.6081264927560.665354690.855354691.522.37535469FF-5.328131.67231315.350134311338.39087626326320.177715535993071613132215DRYL
2023-11-24 11:00:04FORECAST20246214228.1842325.59225.3903279137120.377952960.577952961.522.09795296FF-3.816127.18431314.474795591367.98461818066220.223143523076721613132215DRYL
2023-11-24 07:00:05FORECAST20246214229.35422.56825.96124.2734373479280.240157610.420157611.521.94015761FF-2.646129.35431313.669604467467.61383949199020.262416855669381623122212DRYL
2023-11-24 03:00:05FORECAST20246214229.64223.0926.36627.2838922701740.834646120.914646121.522.43464612FF-2.358130.64231315.834699652768.61719992050880.272599107752271623132218DRYL
2023-11-23 23:00:03FORECAST20246214230.21824.7127.46428.5159028791770.964567450.964567451.522.48456745FF-1.782123.21831316.715988925129.03144238047110.293533553967131623132218DRYL
2023-11-23 19:00:03FORECAST20246214229.64224.60227.12228.5767926439650.933071370.933071371.522.45307137FF-2.358120.64231316.759473482249.05196979171360.272599107752271623132218DRYL
2023-11-23 15:00:04FORECAST20246214231.38824.4427.91422.6063825607910.07874020.07874021.521.5987402FF-0.612127.38831312.463530609197.06367010924680.33819176095749162311226DRYL
2023-11-23 11:00:03FORECAST20246214232.43227.57230.00221.380341060070.129921330.129921331.521.64992133FF0.432147.43231311.573254432416.66154244496090.38008609644891623122212DRYL
2023-11-23 07:00:06FORECAST20246214229.7523.37826.56422.722038414980.133858340.133858341.521.65385834FF-2.25133.7531312.54736978677.10171334279420.276467323238461623122212DRYL
2023-11-23 03:00:07FORECAST20246214227.17621.70424.4427.4971600072390.645669640.725669641.522.24566964FF-4.824139.17631315.987453063678.68875755717170.192166968847091613132215DRYL
2023-11-22 23:00:04FORECAST20246214224.90819.422.15430.8045337712980.633858610.913858611.262.17385861FF-7.092119.90831318.345804269279.80649407856370.132693468016721613132215DRYL
2023-11-22 19:00:05FORECAST20246214223.2717.58220.42630.4753511041730.606299540.896299541.262.15629954FF-8.73120.2731318.111964558179.69457381034870.0985339381004391613132215DRYL
2023-11-22 15:00:04FORECAST20246214230.97423.68427.32921.7836616866180.043307110.083307111.261.34330711FF-1.026141.97431311.866427203996.79359274162580.32208488216128162311226DRYL
2023-11-22 11:00:05FORECAST20246214239.09228.95834.02522.0100100086890.055118140.115118141.261.37511814FF7.092151.09231312.030827717416.86780164107960.659158007959231633122214DRYL
2023-11-22 07:00:07FORECAST20246214246.99428.16637.5821.6303151099730.055118140.075118141.271.34511814FF14.994151.99431311.754995340276.74335878631830.89606779968289165311229DRYL
2023-11-22 03:00:06FORECAST20246214237.00425.21431.10928.3934409268920.598425520.958425521.362.31842552FF5.004141.00431316.628512089758.990172953790.573726975707461633132221DRYL
2023-11-21 23:00:06FORECAST20246214236.78828.7632.77424.8831062676940.031496080.241496081.541.78149608FF4.788144.78831314.109411399127.81601786352720.564610104375061633122214DRYL
2023-11-21 19:00:05FORECAST20246214236.78827.57232.1825.0288621208880.031496080.251496081.531.78149608FF4.788136.78831314.214456866967.86443031731270.564610104375061633122214DRYL
2023-11-21 15:00:04FORECAST20246214238.71430.14634.4325.7109558379700.271.531.8FF6.714143.71431314.705521676368.09137976978610.644145032959731633122214DRYL
2023-11-21 11:00:04FORECAST20246214235.40233.4434.42128.4190097613030.224409570.864409571.492.35440957FF3.402142.40231316.64677862828.99878789271990.505498727654051633132221DRYL
2023-11-21 07:00:08FORECAST20246214235.38433.51234.44827.3389873467960.224409570.904409571.412.31440957FF3.384155.38431315.874169530678.63567992397880.504727411144111633132221DRYL
2023-11-21 03:00:07FORECAST20246214240.13639.43439.78525.2384990364910.228346581.488346581.442.92834658FF8.136152.13631314.36547290127.93411268492290.699275491626681643142232DRYL