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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, December 2, 2023

[ Friday, December 1, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, December 3, 2023 ]

DAY 63 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/03/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.27°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.45°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.243
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 135

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.20 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.43 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.50 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.93 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 55 in
SWE DAY: 30
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 333.85 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.28 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 143

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-03 07:00:04OBSERVATION20246314328.6300424.2700826.4500654.7669508333331.23.431.54.93TF-3.36996134.6300430333.85180669164 18.28404548270.2429421674277616 13151212.5WETL
2023-12-03 03:00:12OBSERVATION20246314328.6300424.2700826.4500654.7669508333331.23.431.54.93TF-3.36996134.6300430333.85180669164 18.28404548270.2429421674277616 13151212.5WETL
2023-12-02 11:00:01FORECAST20246314325.93421.30823.62142.3831967565651.69291433.92291431.55.4229143TT-6.066131.93430325.4142355327713.7920955719730.153488006418031613151212.5WETL
2023-12-02 07:00:05FORECAST20246314327.96823.05425.51142.3180514211951.661418223.891418221.55.39141822TT-4.032133.96830325.369143813913.7689881587870.218700129265491613151212.5WETL
2023-12-02 03:00:05FORECAST20246314327.55421.45224.50343.0042047320021.767717493.997717491.55.49771749TT-4.446133.55430325.8437049453714.0126493981050.204275001365291613151212.5WETL
2023-12-01 23:00:01FORECAST20246314327.84222.17225.00730.7970283696971.799213574.009213571.55.50921357TT-4.158131.84230317.27612770129.77116190584140.214249062967161613152225WETL
2023-12-01 19:00:02FORECAST20246314327.62622.60425.11530.6857206621051.763780483.973780481.55.47378048TT-4.374131.62630317.1967780619.73341172649940.206742297020191613152225WETL
2023-12-01 15:00:02FORECAST20246314328.2224.33226.27630.9661535667571.862205734.072205731.55.57220573TT-3.78132.2230317.396651654099.82855345669490.227759819876721613152225WETL
2023-12-01 11:00:01FORECAST20246314326.27622.06424.1738.0342222425391.720473373.930473371.55.43047337TT-5.724130.27630322.3875639457312.2617602553420.163448213321161613151212.5WETL
2023-12-01 07:00:04FORECAST20246314328.6724.54826.60936.8189414482851.751969453.971969451.55.47196945TT-3.33134.6730321.535794566411.8386075936680.244450427955631613151212.5WETL
2023-12-01 03:00:06FORECAST20246314328.36422.94625.65537.8237966559441.673229253.983229251.55.48322925TT-3.636133.36430322.2402684263412.1883503873150.233030020626131613151212.5WETL
2023-11-30 23:00:02FORECAST20246314327.3223.37825.34935.0161896710021.65354423.67354421.55.1735442TT-4.68131.3230320.2674240561411.2145448661930.196378008290911613151212.5WETL
2023-11-30 19:00:02FORECAST20246314328.23824.24226.2434.7642869248911.795276563.735276561.55.23527656TT-3.762132.23830320.0897287374811.127691171540.22841491027161613151212.5WETL
2023-11-30 15:00:01FORECAST20246314329.22824.83627.03234.6841414342171.818898623.768898621.55.26889862TT-2.772133.22830320.033169269911.1000757065980.266027855598591623151215WETL
2023-11-30 11:00:02FORECAST20246314328.9424.40426.67236.7450728032331.925197893.885197891.55.38519789TT-3.06133.9430321.4839364921211.8129506514730.254772067728711623151215WETL
2023-11-30 07:00:04FORECAST20246314328.20224.3526.27637.2936979610972.04724523.91724521.55.4172452TT-3.798133.20230321.8688562039512.0036799063540.227105786399151613151212.5WETL
2023-11-30 03:00:05FORECAST20246314328.92224.87226.89736.8678251198411.826772643.866772641.55.36677264TT-3.078134.92230321.5701070666611.8555904711020.254076940792421623151215WETL
2023-11-29 23:00:02FORECAST20246314327.30223.2725.28639.5229569706872.350394974.080394971.55.58039497TT-4.698128.30230323.4274155925712.7828078296060.195778293400541613151212.5WETL
2023-11-29 19:00:02FORECAST20246314326.90623.77425.3439.3751388851412.429135174.109135171.55.60913517TT-5.094127.90630323.3243433337512.7309409237130.182866739954421613151212.5WETL
2023-11-29 15:00:02FORECAST20246314326.7824.0825.4337.8838029247572.051182213.771182211.55.27118221TT-5.22128.7830322.2822801569912.2092783876090.178872333351431613151212.5WETL
2023-11-29 11:00:03FORECAST20246314326.81623.25225.03436.9168803972911.49606383.61606381.55.1160638TT-5.184129.81630321.604535738211.8726361810730.180007962297011613151212.5WETL
2023-11-29 07:00:04FORECAST20246314326.52822.65824.59336.0822168830241.452756693.372756691.54.87275669TF-5.472127.52830321.0181554737911.5830467091940.171049356704411613151212.5WETL
2023-11-29 03:00:04FORECAST20246314327.10423.41425.25936.3347935882741.500000813.480000811.54.98000081TF-4.896131.10430321.1957306227411.6705805736120.189254882016021613151212.5WETL
2023-11-28 23:00:02FORECAST20246314326.43823.8125.12438.6405518876861.633859153.723859151.55.22385915TT-5.562128.43830322.8115478262212.4736163637230.16830916267091613151212.5WETL
2023-11-28 19:00:03FORECAST20246314326.38422.31624.3539.1512173535941.539370913.789370911.55.28937091TT-5.616126.38430323.1681310742912.6524257414440.166678641893561613151212.5WETL
2023-11-28 15:00:03FORECAST20246314324.72823.21623.97238.8817898973941.362205463.732205461.55.23220546TT-7.272127.72830322.9800551433512.5580426451320.121620477945841613151212.5WETL
2023-11-28 11:00:02FORECAST20246314326.88822.87424.88139.342424207661.5748043.8748041.55.374804TT-5.112128.88830323.3015264444812.7194658003630.182292734208551613151212.5WETL
2023-11-28 07:00:04FORECAST20246314325.71822.74824.23338.3308016615091.543307923.643307921.55.14330792TT-6.282123.71830322.5950325398912.3653262092750.147408363422981613151212.5WETL
2023-11-28 03:00:05FORECAST20246314325.26822.17223.7236.9361205510981.149606923.319606921.54.81960692TF-6.732124.26830321.6180379650311.8793226216840.13526562892851613151212.5WETL
2023-11-27 23:00:03FORECAST20246314326.8721.61424.24236.8878521386821.488189783.008189781.54.50818978TF-5.13118.8730321.5841632316411.8625490634310.181719853100821613151212.5WETL
2023-11-27 19:00:04FORECAST20246314325.8821.63223.75637.911025962721.53543393.05543391.54.5554339TF-6.12113.8830322.301337503312.2187743739070.151952788884151613151212.5WETL
2023-11-27 15:00:03FORECAST20246314328.41823.12625.77236.5061853932291.5748043.0548041.54.554804TF-3.582123.41830321.3161635106811.7300274349620.235023638620661613151212.5WETL
2023-11-27 11:00:03FORECAST20246314329.0322.80225.91638.7786597153992.192914573.382914571.54.88291457TF-2.97119.0330322.9080302486512.5219406243820.258262559474121623151215WETL
2023-11-27 07:00:06FORECAST20246314328.92224.58426.75337.0563355302712.157481483.337481481.54.83748148TF-3.078128.92230321.7023866915911.9211115821330.254076940792421623151215WETL
2023-11-27 03:00:05FORECAST20246314327.4122.89225.15136.1445968312791.909449852.979449851.54.47944985TF-4.59127.4130321.0620225612811.6046573633120.199393213935571613151212.5WETL
2023-11-26 23:00:04FORECAST20246314329.04823.91826.48336.6969875593771.92913492.91913491.54.4191349TF-2.952116.04830321.4501739344411.7962530338320.258963616148541623151215WETL
2023-11-26 19:00:03FORECAST20246314328.20222.26225.23237.3176972900781.92913492.92913491.54.4291349TF-3.798118.20230321.8856820791712.0120324458410.227105786399151613151212.5WETL
2023-11-26 15:00:03FORECAST20246314325.8821.4723.67539.2181393748552.000001083.040001081.54.54000108TF-6.12107.8830323.2148265598912.6758841160450.151952788884151613151212.5WETL
2023-11-26 11:00:04FORECAST20246314331.5525.5228.53538.1187153151122.633859693.483859691.54.98385969TF-0.45125.5530322.4466859876712.2912534274650.364928528894181623151215WETL
2023-11-26 07:00:07FORECAST20246314328.56222.89225.72739.9626750926132.555119493.395119491.54.89511949TF-3.438116.56230323.7337985097412.9372686063420.240385656768281613151212.5WETL
2023-11-26 03:00:05FORECAST20246314329.28223.25226.26740.1284709561881.984253043.434253041.54.93425304TF-2.718117.28230323.8492314826212.9955744797340.2681659769841623151215WETL
2023-11-25 23:00:03FORECAST20246314329.44423.61226.52833.2608935090021.098425791.988425791.53.48842579TF-2.556112.44430319.0268490055110.6111180512850.274631730337081623151215DRYL
2023-11-25 19:00:03FORECAST20246314328.50822.87425.69133.0978362960241.031496621.881496621.53.38149662TF-3.492107.50830318.9113254961610.555274844220.238367140016281613151212.5DRYL
2023-11-25 15:00:03FORECAST20246314324.74621.9223.33332.74717340480.98425251.74425251.53.2442525TF-7.254107.74630318.6627241229310.43530348450.122059180173971613151212.5DRYL
2023-11-25 11:00:03FORECAST20246314326.81622.02824.42231.4031236442580.929134361.719134361.53.21913436TF-5.184108.81630317.707810731259.97701766314020.180007962297011613152225DRYL
2023-11-25 07:00:05FORECAST20246314329.46222.6426.05129.729343148790.901575291.641575291.53.14157529TF-2.538121.46230316.514065220679.40975525636370.275354859879311623152230DRYL
2023-11-25 03:00:05FORECAST20246314330.224.09827.14925.0952181627270.594488510.854488511.52.35448851FF-1.8131.230313.182392583827.85938046661580.305781472601341623132218DRYL
2023-11-24 23:00:02FORECAST20246314328.95824.0826.51928.1203430386410.421260071.041260071.52.54126007FF-3.042116.95830315.361727101998.86807994736620.25546818760891623142224DRYL
2023-11-24 19:00:03FORECAST20246314327.98622.47825.23229.7878324792130.425197081.185197081.52.68519708FF-4.014110.98630316.555865625889.42951309557610.219340304197471613142220DRYL
2023-11-24 15:00:03FORECAST20246314329.49824.13426.81632.5889049301350.862205191.722205191.53.22220519TF-2.502116.49830318.5504476341510.3812102534010.276803920598761623151215DRYL
2023-11-24 11:00:04FORECAST20246314330.66824.11627.39232.2598345231181.007874561.587874561.53.08787456TF-1.332112.66830318.3168588223710.2688491915280.325814695353541623151215DRYL
2023-11-24 07:00:06FORECAST20246314331.38823.05427.22129.3058053702990.74803191.16803191.52.6680319FF-0.612115.38830316.211191298889.26682362811550.357623371923421623142224DRYL
2023-11-24 03:00:05FORECAST20246314329.01221.57825.29532.0853133840150.637795621.547795621.53.04779562TF-2.988115.01230318.1928967017910.2093188072450.257562486395431623151215DRYL
2023-11-23 23:00:04FORECAST20246314330.99224.4427.71633.791918946370.657480671.617480671.53.11748067TF-1.008108.99230319.4027408381310.793231529650.339989034435321623151215DRYL
2023-11-23 19:00:03FORECAST20246314329.85823.93626.89733.787168420070.625984591.555984591.53.05598459TF-2.142105.85830319.3993803761310.7916006580340.291496189302651623151215DRYL
2023-11-23 15:00:04FORECAST20246314339.23625.93432.58525.9407066342190.47244120.55244121.52.0524412FF7.236121.23630313.79317915958.14001680439560.719040434781591643132224DRYL
2023-11-23 11:00:03FORECAST20246314340.69428.02234.35824.4376499916280.464567180.594567181.52.09456718FF8.694142.69430312.706453291627.6418108556640.775040144377821643132224DRYL
2023-11-23 07:00:06FORECAST20246314331.60424.11627.8625.818584513580.405512030.535512031.52.03551203FF-0.396120.60430313.705038342288.09942004477580.367374667126671623132218DRYL
2023-11-23 03:00:08FORECAST20246314334.05221.36227.70729.1850538607640.181102460.911102461.52.41110246FF2.052128.05230316.124781602129.22611877778040.482409977188761623132218DRYL
2023-11-22 23:00:04FORECAST20246314322.42415.3518.88732.1238737689630.114173290.944173291.322.26417329FF-9.57697.42430318.2202908187210.2224684529830.074256202559447161313127.5DRYL
2023-11-22 19:00:05FORECAST20246314320.22815.60217.91531.7499017870530.106299270.926299271.322.24629927FF-11.77295.22830317.9544999699610.0950241467980.043631933754925161313127.5DRYL
2023-11-22 15:00:05FORECAST20246314328.9424.42226.68121.78366168661800.041.281.32FF-3.06125.9430310.777431846616.76987043518230.25477206772871162311226DRYL
2023-11-22 11:00:05FORECAST20246314334.0729.15631.61321.98590200868900.061.31.36FF2.07140.0730310.924886082526.83596407747290.48327367323092162311226DRYL
2023-11-22 07:00:07FORECAST20246314336.0534.39435.22221.47907430997300.061.271.33FF4.05143.0530310.555212966746.67043849666220.5778623174897163311227DRYL
2023-11-22 03:00:06FORECAST20246314337.07637.0437.05829.005447593680.094488240.974488241.422.39448824FF5.076133.07630315.996206444739.16561140583430.625495225808691633132221DRYL