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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 30, 2023

[ Wednesday, November 29, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, December 1, 2023 ]

DAY 61 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/01/2023 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.59°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.38°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.99°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.240
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 156

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.45 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.45 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.54 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.99 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 24 in
SWE DAY: 32
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 314.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.46 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 141

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-12-01 07:00:03OBSERVATION20246114128.5900823.3799825.9850323.725346250.450000000000050.450000000000051.541.99FF-3.40992155.5900832314.35316494529 7.45813768311030.24031141145816 13122210DRYL
2023-12-01 03:00:05OBSERVATION20246114128.5900823.3799825.9850323.725346250.450000000000050.450000000000051.541.99FF-3.40992155.5900832314.35316494529 7.45813768311030.24031141145816 13122210DRYL
2023-11-30 11:00:01FORECAST20246114127.66220.69624.17922.3610493275560.334645850.334645851.541.87464585FF-4.338154.66232313.368881635747.00725701997780.210671535678741613122210DRYL
2023-11-30 07:00:04FORECAST20246114127.75221.39824.57522.5182853498410.283464720.283464721.541.82346472FF-4.248154.75232313.482494841667.05908827102440.21344858754041613122210DRYL
2023-11-30 03:00:04FORECAST20246114127.53621.93824.73722.5381947126730.295275750.295275751.541.83527575FF-4.464154.53632313.496877409117.06565366486150.206819417390451613122210DRYL
2023-11-29 23:00:01FORECAST20246114127.3221.8324.57522.3432402521890.318897810.318897811.541.85889781FF-4.68153.3232313.356010564867.00138862851810.200313451342821613122210DRYL
2023-11-29 19:00:01FORECAST20246114127.37420.24623.8122.2554571927460.307086780.307086781.541.84708678FF-4.626153.37432313.292559010736.97246913586930.201928331202151613122210DRYL
2023-11-29 15:00:02FORECAST20246114127.55420.2123.88222.223907661160.295275750.295275751.541.83527575FF-4.446153.55432313.269750848996.96207801590260.207367158411613122210DRYL
2023-11-29 11:00:02FORECAST20246114127.21221.52424.36822.6209441525910.405512030.405512031.541.94551203FF-4.788153.21232313.556647993227.09294742292830.197107011134451613122210DRYL
2023-11-29 07:00:04FORECAST20246114126.621.25423.92722.119770251330.346456880.346456881.541.88645688FF-5.4151.632313.194453622496.92778935812020.179529366367371613122210DRYL
2023-11-29 03:00:04FORECAST20246114128.05822.53225.29522.2737929894080.381889970.381889971.541.92188997FF-3.942154.05832313.305813702666.97850883679090.223048395466221613122210DRYL
2023-11-28 23:00:02FORECAST20246114128.02221.77624.89922.8043868923050.429134090.429134091.541.96913409FF-3.978153.02232313.689105369657.15348772275060.221906426215331613122210DRYL
2023-11-28 19:00:03FORECAST20246114126.38421.93824.16122.7949922263560.417323060.417323061.541.95732306FF-5.616150.38432313.682323320047.15038612162550.173567774818531613122210DRYL
2023-11-28 15:00:02FORECAST20246114127.62622.02824.82722.8436310456610.437008110.437008111.541.97700811FF-4.374152.62632313.717434142197.16644531813550.209566665721131613122210DRYL
2023-11-28 11:00:02FORECAST20246114126.81622.17224.49422.9958668216250.47244120.47244121.542.0124412FF-5.184151.81632313.827300293077.21673080252950.185617739529041613122210DRYL
2023-11-28 07:00:04FORECAST20246114126.34821.07423.71122.528175631960.468504190.468504191.542.00850419FF-5.652149.34832313.48963969417.06234966182850.172586534933371613122210DRYL
2023-11-28 03:00:05FORECAST20246114127.48221.93824.7122.5297953706240.464567180.464567181.542.00456718FF-4.518151.48232313.490809794667.06288379524480.205181330994151613122210DRYL
2023-11-27 23:00:02FORECAST20246114128.41822.08225.2522.3319476363350.322834820.322834821.541.86283482FF-3.582143.41832313.347848803056.99766775142790.234650209792721613122210DRYL
2023-11-27 19:00:03FORECAST20246114127.521.97424.73722.0991270321060.271653690.271653691.541.81165369FF-4.5141.532313.179525044036.92099410780280.205726503025121613122210DRYL
2023-11-27 15:00:02FORECAST20246114128.6723.1825.92521.8902549520990.251968640.251968641.541.79196864FF-3.33144.6732313.028430766296.85227215672980.242965722322211613122210DRYL
2023-11-27 11:00:02FORECAST20246114127.39223.10825.2521.2759675838960.145669370.145669371.541.68566937FF-4.608142.39232312.583601588696.65051857465820.202468347997251613122210DRYL
2023-11-27 07:00:06FORECAST20246114130.8325.93428.38220.8621161898230.153543390.153543391.541.69354339FF-1.17149.8332312.283524281656.51489516773110.320283952147231623122212DRYL
2023-11-27 03:00:05FORECAST20246114130.57822.94626.76221.2522686381350.185039470.185039471.541.72503947FF-1.422149.57832312.566426359226.64274566024780.310750643364581623122212DRYL
2023-11-26 23:00:03FORECAST20246114129.1222.51425.81720.8418956799370.090551230.090551231.541.63055123FF-2.88138.1232312.268854615586.50827489199120.258202311393251623122212DRYL
2023-11-26 19:00:03FORECAST20246114128.72423.10825.91620.540678770320.07874020.07874021.541.6187402FF-3.276141.72432312.050237190646.40972368233520.24476810078109161311225DRYL
2023-11-26 15:00:02FORECAST20246114127.21221.18224.19720.7226574622540.062992160.062992161.541.60299216FF-4.788135.21232312.18233381656.46924756944640.19710701113445161311225DRYL
2023-11-26 11:00:04FORECAST20246114129.82225.23227.52719.6837366850270.027559070.027559071.541.56755907FF-2.178143.82232311.427369562246.13005433897370.28292222760825162311226DRYL
2023-11-26 07:00:06FORECAST20246114129.3922.67626.03320.5241865612650.023622060.023622061.541.56362206FF-2.61139.3932312.038262632966.40433151653180.26757610393257162311226DRYL
2023-11-26 03:00:05FORECAST20246114129.55223.4526.50121.2431162136020.153543390.153543391.541.69354339FF-2.448137.55232312.559793087356.63974400825390.273281483920941623122212DRYL
2023-11-25 23:00:03FORECAST20246114128.92222.89225.90722.1631115816820.185039470.185039471.541.72503947FF-3.078132.92232313.225794270896.94205822868670.251437857329481623122212DRYL
2023-11-25 19:00:02FORECAST20246114127.12222.22624.67422.0987247519450.181102460.181102461.541.72110246FF-4.878130.12232313.179234118896.92086169281820.194458799859011613122210DRYL
2023-11-25 15:00:03FORECAST20246114127.9522.65825.30422.2313242539570.216535550.216535551.541.75653555FF-4.05134.9532313.275112704596.96452061123060.219632515195171613122210DRYL
2023-11-25 11:00:02FORECAST20246114128.34623.77426.0621.7275226040110.216535550.216535551.541.75653555FF-3.654134.34632312.910657566596.7987733853140.232303537007511613122210DRYL
2023-11-25 07:00:05FORECAST20246114128.25624.6226.43821.2198760766450.212598540.212598541.541.75259854FF-3.744140.25632312.542948972676.6321226458290.229388615639431613122210DRYL
2023-11-25 03:00:05FORECAST20246114130.27224.5327.40120.9763678840770.204724520.204724521.541.74472452FF-1.728148.27232312.366397958426.55231247819980.299343401268291623122212DRYL
2023-11-24 23:00:02FORECAST20246114129.42622.8226.12322.1390079916470.188976480.188976481.541.72897648FF-2.574139.42632313.208365094686.93412249788160.268838765407621623122212DRYL
2023-11-24 19:00:02FORECAST20246114127.71621.77624.74622.5246253839960.185039470.185039471.541.72503947FF-4.284133.71632313.487074975197.06117892654090.212335220092451613122210DRYL
2023-11-24 15:00:02FORECAST20246114127.8624.11625.98822.2030744288820.192913490.192913491.541.73291349FF-4.14136.8632313.254688839526.95521717150030.216808997455591613122210DRYL
2023-11-24 11:00:04FORECAST20246114129.0320.96624.99822.8741864591560.19685050.19685051.541.7368505FF-2.97131.0332313.739488908497.1765355688930.255115925756751623122212DRYL
2023-11-24 07:00:05FORECAST20246114127.91421.88424.89922.6215960969440.177165450.177165451.541.71716545FF-4.086131.91432313.557118847987.09316249590060.218500586994541613122210DRYL
2023-11-24 03:00:04FORECAST20246114129.82223.1826.50121.8609799906760.082677210.082677211.541.62267721FF-2.178132.82232313.007247384056.84264517199930.28292222760825162311226DRYL
2023-11-23 23:00:03FORECAST20246114131.1922.26226.72621.9834296001.541.54FF-0.81125.1932313.095841521876.88292039014880.33410981330384162311226DRYL
2023-11-23 19:00:03FORECAST20246114127.6822.74825.21421.9950408001.541.54FF-4.32122.6832313.104240969846.88674055478470.21122524727249161311225DRYL
2023-11-23 15:00:04FORECAST20246114132.2724.5328.422.0360736001.541.54FF0.27128.2732313.133921780356.90024214700840.37689027101991162311226DRYL
2023-11-23 11:00:03FORECAST20246114135.02427.9531.48720.510972001.541.54FF3.024147.02432312.028667526826.400011262840.4917901617327162311226DRYL
2023-11-23 07:00:06FORECAST20246114132.14423.97228.05821.687550533333001.541.54FF0.144136.14432312.881721397776.78563814377040.37180851370306162311226DRYL
2023-11-23 03:00:07FORECAST20246114129.58824.18826.88821.9357659041740.07874020.07874021.541.6187402FF-2.412143.58832313.061359394916.86724069332930.27455747059184162311226DRYL
2023-11-22 23:00:03FORECAST20246114128.38222.7325.55624.1010329472670.19685050.27685051.281.5568505FF-3.618127.38232314.623608815937.58275396206070.233475240755921613122210DRYL
2023-11-22 19:00:05FORECAST20246114127.7722.87425.32223.7612129715470.208661530.288661531.281.56866153FF-4.23128.7732314.378995302947.47002626117390.214006542391651613122210DRYL
2023-11-22 15:00:04FORECAST20246114130.32624.63827.48221.40579506903300.041.281.32FF-1.674143.32632312.677672529946.6931141808380.30134262013749162311226DRYL
2023-11-22 11:00:05FORECAST20246114133.63828.8531.24421.92311029765600.061.281.34FF1.638143.63832313.052203041126.86307797619470.43326138639332162311226DRYL
2023-11-22 07:00:06FORECAST20246114134.05227.91430.98321.75196575936100.021.291.31FF2.052137.05232312.928350755816.80680677077380.45064991014106162311226DRYL
2023-11-22 03:00:06FORECAST20246114131.69427.7729.73224.384780476090.279527710.359527711.381.73952771FF-0.306135.69432314.827697860677.67700430012510.35384645510351623122212DRYL
2023-11-21 23:00:05FORECAST20246114135.38430.75833.07124.7302606305010.208661530.208661531.561.76866153FF3.384140.38432315.075990395097.79191136088380.50707299297441633122214DRYL
2023-11-21 19:00:04FORECAST20246114134.48429.4831.98224.8763592427280.216535550.216535551.551.76653555FF2.484132.48432315.180924227.84055389735160.468895490752751623122212DRYL
2023-11-21 15:00:04FORECAST20246114138.67830.2934.48425.801287037970.271653690.271653691.551.82165369FF6.678136.67832315.844341244398.1491905077650.643665907656221633122214DRYL
2023-11-21 11:00:04FORECAST20246114146.59830.99238.79526.8304004650030.535433360.635433361.512.14543336FF14.598138.59832316.580657333738.49398581573790.887147798029311653132227DRYL
2023-11-21 07:00:08FORECAST20246114146.81431.31639.06525.7511561451250.55118140.68118141.432.1111814FF14.814151.81432315.808424114648.13243204132190.891495211605491653132227DRYL
2023-11-21 03:00:07FORECAST20246114147.96637.3142.63823.8476615345810.968504461.258504461.462.71850446FF15.966143.96632314.44124382647.49868835528450.912662097740161653142236DRYL
2023-11-20 23:00:03FORECAST20246114134.05229.28231.66727.9198959027650.409449040.419449041.391.80944904FF2.052106.05232317.35808134438.86060459503410.450649910141061623122212DRYL
2023-11-20 19:00:05FORECAST20246114131.96430.43431.19926.2905730155030.381889970.391889971.471.86188997FF-0.036000000000001119.96432316.194658446518.3129387550.364587620864841623122212DRYL
2023-11-20 15:00:04FORECAST20246114133.1731.7332.4527.0023353276160.338582860.358582861.621.97858286FF1.17118.1732316.703486761518.55173374895970.413760928944471623122212DRYL
2023-11-20 11:00:04FORECAST20246114140.5537.9439.24522.526137586840.011811030.091811031.541.63181103FF8.55132.5532313.488167401787.0616775907390.714812874629121643122216DRYL
2023-11-20 07:00:06FORECAST20246114132.79230.75831.77522.6359022055130.011811030.031811031.521.55181103FF0.792120.79232313.567450974187.09788215508370.39816201542177162311226DRYL
2023-11-20 03:00:06FORECAST20246114123.12622.69422.9129.51736457509900.751.652.4FF-8.874105.12632318.49409365369.40110627738910.0990020019235141613132215DRYL