Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 29, 2023

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DAY 60 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/30/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.35°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.27°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.81°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.258 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 162 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.56 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.56 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 21 in SWE DAY: 33 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 313.77 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 6.72 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 140 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 3 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 2 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-30 07:00:04	OBSERVATION	2024	60	140	30.34994	25.26998	27.80996	21.418920416667	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	-1.65006	162.34994	33	313.76893330332	6.7205918116461	0.2577740576575	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-30 03:00:04	OBSERVATION	2024	60	140	30.34994	25.26998	27.80996	21.418920416667	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	-1.65006	162.34994	33	313.76893330332	6.7205918116461	0.2577740576575	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-29 11:00:02	FORECAST	2024	60	140	29.408	22.1	25.754	21	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	-2.592	161.408	33	313.46644050262	6.582795250555	0.22822442392885	16	1	3	1	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-11-29 07:00:04	FORECAST	2024	60	140	28.49	21.758	25.124	20.741428333333	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	-3.51	160.49	33	313.27957113683	6.497865773032	0.20135230207648	16	1	3	1	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-11-29 03:00:03	FORECAST	2024	60	140	29.48	23.27	26.375	20.741428333333	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	-2.52	161.48	33	313.27957113683	6.497865773032	0.23041388029773	16	1	3	1	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2023-11-28 23:00:01	FORECAST	2024	60	140	32.414	24.188	28.301	20.9977368	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	0.414	160.414	33	313.46480542364	6.5820514803488	0.3288082290354	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-28 19:00:02	FORECAST	2024	60	140	31.28	23.756	27.518	21	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	-0.72	159.28	33	313.46644050262	6.582795250555	0.28878460914147	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-28 15:00:02	FORECAST	2024	60	140	31.802	22.748	27.275	21	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	-0.198	159.802	33	313.46644050262	6.582795250555	0.30692514218039	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-28 11:00:02	FORECAST	2024	60	140	31.766	23.378	27.572	20.8813296	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	-0.234	159.766	33	313.38069281565	6.5438055369599	0.30565807090307	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-28 07:00:04	FORECAST	2024	60	140	30.812	22.55	26.681	20.4513599	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	-1.188	157.812	33	313.06979298598	6.4027030101748	0.27296235984665	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-28 03:00:04	FORECAST	2024	60	140	32.36	22.73	27.545	20.4374855	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	0.36	159.36	33	313.05975511462	6.3981542057886	0.32685214347822	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-27 23:00:02	FORECAST	2024	60	140	31.91	23.702	27.806	20.8603704	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	-0.09	149.91	33	313.36554563792	6.5369213526051	0.31074015715719	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-27 19:00:03	FORECAST	2024	60	140	31.352	24.116	27.734	20.8659792	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	-0.648	149.352	33	313.36959918704	6.5387635385491	0.29125656107645	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-27 15:00:02	FORECAST	2024	60	140	32.396	25.736	29.066	20.7955248	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	0.396	151.396	33	313.31867672736	6.5156263121869	0.32815567630323	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-27 11:00:02	FORECAST	2024	60	140	32.054	25.106	28.58	20.6153544	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	0.054000000000002	150.054	33	313.18841317084	6.4564901314905	0.31585858060869	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-27 07:00:05	FORECAST	2024	60	140	34.466	27.32	30.893	20.221900316667	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	2.466	154.466	33	312.90373776754	6.3275081938476	0.40616792475344	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-27 03:00:05	FORECAST	2024	60	140	33.638	25.322	29.48	20.457174716667	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	1.638	153.638	33	313.07399979292	6.4046095130094	0.37431280524196	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-26 23:00:03	FORECAST	2024	60	140	33.584	24.836	29.21	20.4299688	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	1.584	143.584	33	313.05431677369	6.3956899243918	0.37226222513863	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-26 19:00:03	FORECAST	2024	60	140	34.34	25.484	29.912	20.1673392	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	2.34	148.34	33	312.86423875626	6.3096392265473	0.40127435476495	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-26 15:00:02	FORECAST	2024	60	140	32.216	23.126	27.671	20.4242616	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	0.216	143.216	33	313.0501875387	6.3938189242195	0.32165922829108	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-26 11:00:03	FORECAST	2024	60	140	35.24	26.366	30.803	19.5493872	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	3.24	149.24	33	312.41649587642	6.1075510455554	0.43652278279179	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-26 07:00:06	FORECAST	2024	60	140	34.826	23.666	29.246	20.380082866667	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	2.826	144.826	33	313.0182216133	6.3793372952557	0.42022801677897	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-26 03:00:04	FORECAST	2024	60	140	34.322	24.926	29.624	20.480450866667	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	2.322	143.322	33	313.09083861302	6.4122415370174	0.40057651621143	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-25 23:00:03	FORECAST	2024	60	140	34.142	24.8	29.471	21.1725544	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	2.142	139.142	33	313.59107705325	6.6395241382645	0.39361592208065	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-25 19:00:02	FORECAST	2024	60	140	33.314	24.404	28.859	21.0963928	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	1.314	138.314	33	313.53607203998	6.6144801327246	0.36206460211675	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-25 15:00:03	FORECAST	2024	60	140	33.602	26.096	29.849	20.9577472	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	1.602	141.602	33	313.43591285417	6.568910624999	0.37294535291679	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-25 11:00:02	FORECAST	2024	60	140	34.214	26.528	30.371	20.5262632	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	2.214	141.214	33	313.12397802636	6.4272651872001	0.39639621871913	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-25 07:00:05	FORECAST	2024	60	140	35.348	28.256	31.802	20.049684883333	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	3.348	147.348	33	312.77904538042	6.2711212979872	0.4407925391749	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-25 03:00:05	FORECAST	2024	60	140	36.554	27.59	32.072	19.852097683333	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	4.554	152.554	33	312.63591538924	6.2064787316255	0.48882565282995	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-24 23:00:02	FORECAST	2024	60	140	35.006	26.312	30.659	20.9701064	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	3.006	145.006	33	313.44484271532	6.5729717022714	0.42729761855095	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-24 19:00:02	FORECAST	2024	60	140	33.926	23.648	28.787	21.2914808	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	1.926	140.926	33	313.67694614843	6.6786466763219	0.38530803712691	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-24 15:00:02	FORECAST	2024	60	140	35.492	26.762	31.127	20.9953952	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	3.492	144.492	33	313.46311369364	6.5812819526205	0.44649618638381	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-24 11:00:04	FORECAST	2024	60	140	33.296	24.314	28.805	21.7629152	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	1.296	137.296	33	314.01708347333	6.8339271589814	0.3613881355758	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-24 07:00:05	FORECAST	2024	60	140	33.494	24.854	29.174	21.653706833333	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	1.494	139.494	33	313.93832648098	6.7979284853665	0.36885264952798	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-24 03:00:04	FORECAST	2024	60	140	32.9	25.52	29.21	21.413610833333	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	0.9	137.9	33	313.76510138883	6.7188437742218	0.34661875372069	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-23 23:00:03	FORECAST	2024	60	140	31.604	25.394	28.499	21.9834296	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	-0.396	128.604	33	314.17604364022	6.9066669373713	0.29998514349307	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-23 19:00:03	FORECAST	2024	60	140	31.964	24.638	28.301	21.9950408	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	-0.036000000000001	129.964	33	314.18441123086	6.9104989437467	0.31265535089683	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-23 15:00:04	FORECAST	2024	60	140	33.296	24.98	29.138	22.0375496	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	1.296	131.296	33	314.21504301655	6.9245295955434	0.3613881355758	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-23 11:00:03	FORECAST	2024	60	140	36.914	29.3	33.107	20.6086832	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	4.914	146.914	33	313.1835887354	6.454301363687	0.50322734631348	16	3	3	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-11-23 07:00:06	FORECAST	2024	60	140	34.682	28.004	31.343	21.688337733333	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	2.682	138.682	33	313.96330335718	6.8093421590836	0.41459069030629	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-23 03:00:07	FORECAST	2024	60	140	36.32	27.734	32.027	21.358205733333	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	4.32	149.32	33	313.72511256803	6.7006054979411	0.47947118583644	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-22 23:00:03	FORECAST	2024	60	140	35.528	27.284	31.406	22.677823804797	0.0787402	0.0787402	1.3	1.3787402	F	F	3.528	133.528	33	314.67602391617	7.136167425965	0.44792387666233	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-22 19:00:04	FORECAST	2024	60	140	34.142	28.022	31.082	22.29855936751	0.0787402	0.0787402	1.3	1.3787402	F	F	2.142	136.142	33	314.40305383085	7.0107351611737	0.39361592208065	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-22 15:00:04	FORECAST	2024	60	140	35.798	30.686	33.242	21.405795069033	0.04330711	0.04330711	1.3	1.34330711	F	F	3.798	147.798	33	313.75946067509	6.7162707161814	0.45865179890276	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-22 11:00:04	FORECAST	2024	60	140	38.894	31.658	35.276	21.974868697656	0.05905515	0.05905515	1.3	1.35905515	F	F	6.894	144.894	33	314.16987408311	6.9038417317355	0.58186185536344	16	3	3	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-11-22 07:00:06	FORECAST	2024	60	140	38.228	30.992	34.61	21.815138559361	0.01968505	0.01968505	1.31	1.32968505	F	F	6.228	138.228	33	314.05473728764	6.8511476091536	0.55561763083005	16	3	3	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-11-22 03:00:06	FORECAST	2024	60	140	41.648	30.866	36.257	22.619342063786	0.0787402	0.0787402	1.4	1.4787402	F	F	9.648	138.648	33	314.63394967602	7.1168129326018	0.68540064934501	16	3	3	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-11-21 23:00:05	FORECAST	2024	60	140	43.844	33.494	38.669	23.563081148282	0	0	1.58	1.58	F	F	11.844	139.844	33	315.3121527691	7.4297258427378	0.75900687463279	16	4	3	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-21 19:00:04	FORECAST	2024	60	140	43.754	32.954	38.354	23.666361420624	0	0	1.57	1.57	F	F	11.754	132.754	33	315.38627485093	7.4640455677265	0.75618517937141	16	4	3	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-21 15:00:04	FORECAST	2024	60	140	39.524	33.044	36.284	24.255796288617	0	0	1.57	1.57	F	F	7.524	132.524	33	315.80892791972	7.6601970217473	0.6063583590476	16	3	3	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-11-21 11:00:04	FORECAST	2024	60	140	39.83	32.072	35.951	24.725615753157	0.10236226	0.10236226	1.53	1.63236226	F	F	7.83	126.83	33	316.1453581079	7.8168886467202	0.61811285775637	16	3	3	1	2	2	2	14	DRY	L
2023-11-21 07:00:08	FORECAST	2024	60	140	40.352	32.918	36.635	23.549646993019	0.12992133	0.12992133	1.45	1.57992133	F	F	8.352	140.352	33	315.30250992889	7.4252628048382	0.63791033527907	16	3	3	1	2	2	2	14	DRY	L
2023-11-21 03:00:06	FORECAST	2024	60	140	45.23	32.198	38.714	24.077009972175	0.29133874	0.29133874	1.48	1.77133874	F	F	13.23	131.23	33	315.68079640842	7.6006496831497	0.80014842367405	16	4	3	1	2	2	2	16	DRY	L
2023-11-20 23:00:03	FORECAST	2024	60	140	39.65	31.316	35.483	24.595156517875	0.01181103	0.01181103	1.41	1.42181103	F	F	7.65	106.65	33	316.05197859974	7.7733478814445	0.61121086509647	16	3	3	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-11-20 19:00:04	FORECAST	2024	60	140	40.01	31.928	35.969	23.047401911667	0.01181103	0.01181103	1.49	1.50181103	F	F	8.01	123.01	33	314.94176955266	7.2585895416517	0.62497752142288	16	3	3	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-11-20 15:00:04	FORECAST	2024	60	140	38.714	31.424	35.069	24.260475220808	0.01574804	0.01574804	1.64	1.65574804	F	F	6.714	119.714	33	315.8122804077	7.6617560032579	0.57479962044175	16	3	3	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-11-20 11:00:04	FORECAST	2024	60	140	43.25	32.792	38.021	22.798025139394	0	0.09	1.55	1.64	F	F	11.25	127.25	33	314.76248222293	7.1759629826564	0.74005995382518	16	4	3	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-20 07:00:06	FORECAST	2024	60	140	40.712	32.63	36.671	22.565350301586	0	0.02	1.54	1.56	F	F	8.712	122.712	33	314.59510016779	7.0989486384486	0.65135558388722	16	3	3	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-11-20 03:00:05	FORECAST	2024	60	140	33.944	23.576	28.76	29.517364575099	0.37007894	0.77007894	1.65	2.42007894	F	F	1.944	116.944	33	319.55382133991	9.4323866458561	0.38599841274771	16	2	3	1	3	2	2	18	DRY	L
2023-11-19 23:00:04	FORECAST	2024	60	140	31.712	30.074	30.893	17.793322714305	0	0.02	1.79	1.81	F	F	-0.288	107.712	33	311.14028006856	5.5362194126793	0.30376181906673	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-19 19:00:06	FORECAST	2024	60	140	32.846	30.866	31.856	17.564062199384	0	0	1.72	1.72	F	F	0.846	110.846	33	310.97324502935	5.4619534180397	0.34462208823311	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-19 15:00:03	FORECAST	2024	60	140	35.042	29.966	32.504	17.245355628388	0	0	1.67	1.67	F	F	3.042	105.042	33	310.74087956722	5.3588369764147	0.4287144209486	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-19 11:00:05	FORECAST	2024	60	140	37.454	36.284	36.869	21.02407970821	0	0	1.54	1.54	F	F	5.454	109.454	33	313.4838366265	6.5907091684709	0.52481614112865	16	3	3	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-11-19 07:00:07	FORECAST	2024	60	140	37.454	36.284	36.869	19.082757920816	0	0	1.36	1.36	F	F	5.454	118.454	33	312.07792927215	5.9553075767299	0.52481614112865	16	3	3	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-11-19 03:00:07	FORECAST	2024	60	140	33.872	33.836	33.854	18.820990062876	0	0	1.33	1.33	F	F	1.872	120.872	33	311.88782574089	5.8700376690011	0.38323909742909	16	2	3	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L