Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 28, 2023

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DAY 59 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/29/2023 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.07°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.25°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.16°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.744 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 164 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.59 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.59 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 21 in SWE DAY: 34 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 314.36 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 6.52 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 139 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 2 D5: 2 HSdry: 9.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-29 07:00:03	OBSERVATION	2024	59	139	41.07002	29.24996	35.15999	20.741428333333	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	9.07002	164.07002	34	314.35907640749	6.5202562542389	0.74374916714691	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	DRY	L
2023-11-29 03:00:03	OBSERVATION	2024	59	139	41.07002	29.24996	35.15999	20.741428333333	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	9.07002	164.07002	34	314.35907640749	6.5202562542389	0.74374916714691	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	DRY	L
2023-11-28 11:00:01	FORECAST	2024	59	139	36.734	26.222	31.478	20.8813296	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	4.734	159.734	34	314.4598145531	6.5663390336382	0.56658415873017	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-28 07:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	35.798	27.194	31.496	20.4513599	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	3.798	158.798	34	314.15009390094	6.4247966329868	0.52491976671833	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-28 03:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	36.302	27.518	31.91	20.4394535	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	4.302	159.302	34	314.14151253388	6.4208808378558	0.54741781864986	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-27 23:00:02	FORECAST	2024	59	139	37.274	27.842	32.558	20.8603704	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	5.274	150.274	34	314.44472482543	6.5594334301845	0.59031856521251	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-27 19:00:02	FORECAST	2024	59	139	36.662	27.824	32.243	20.8659792	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	4.662	149.662	34	314.44876300029	6.5612813482297	0.56339937431039	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-27 15:00:01	FORECAST	2024	59	139	37.886	29.318	33.602	20.7978864	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	5.886	150.886	34	314.39973425	6.5388499571216	0.61681854558522	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-27 11:00:02	FORECAST	2024	59	139	36.806	28.418	32.612	20.6156496	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	4.806	149.806	34	314.26847685371	6.4788487991418	0.56976462582608	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-27 07:00:05	FORECAST	2024	59	139	37.94	30.668	34.304	20.263425116667	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	5.94	151.94	34	314.01461231525	6.3630115821892	0.61913270997673	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-27 03:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	38.192	28.958	33.575	20.485907516667	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	6.192	152.192	34	314.17499213128	6.4361598328509	0.62987467893603	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-26 23:00:03	FORECAST	2024	59	139	37.436	28.382	32.909	20.454864	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	5.436	142.436	34	314.15261938133	6.4259491046889	0.59737895631011	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-26 19:00:02	FORECAST	2024	59	139	38.732	29.876	34.304	20.2120128	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	6.732	145.732	34	313.97753807275	6.346118018439	0.65254573995731	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-26 15:00:02	FORECAST	2024	59	139	36.968	28.688	32.828	20.4254424	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	4.968	142.968	34	314.13141390208	6.4162731006875	0.57690384681998	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-26 11:00:03	FORECAST	2024	59	139	38.876	31.496	35.186	19.625352	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	6.876	145.876	34	313.55414460411	6.1536104589146	0.65850424616435	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-26 07:00:06	FORECAST	2024	59	139	37.688	29.03	33.359	20.424854866667	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	5.688	141.688	34	314.13099042407	6.4160798885338	0.60829815143883	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-26 03:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	37.49	28.76	33.125	20.519220466667	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	5.49	141.49	34	314.1989984768	6.4471185201513	0.59972550322238	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-25 23:00:02	FORECAST	2024	59	139	38.246	28.688	33.467	21.2026648	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	6.246	137.246	34	314.69106161338	6.6722890949446	0.63216373616605	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-25 19:00:02	FORECAST	2024	59	139	38.066	28.922	33.494	21.11194	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	6.066	137.066	34	314.62579114446	6.6423608250945	0.62451575693833	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-25 15:00:02	FORECAST	2024	59	139	38.912	28.796	33.854	20.9834296	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	6.912	139.912	34	314.53331069972	6.5999875819225	0.65998779476569	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-25 11:00:02	FORECAST	2024	59	139	38.498	31.298	34.898	20.5666072	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	6.498	139.498	34	314.2331433277	6.462709628042	0.6427828968545	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-25 07:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	39.362	31.586	35.474	20.129585683333	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	7.362	144.362	34	313.91808845851	6.3190410591738	0.67831722380159	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-25 03:00:05	FORECAST	2024	59	139	41.414	31.622	36.518	19.985626483333	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	9.414	148.414	34	313.814229677	6.2717739794796	0.75603580391435	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	DRY	L
2023-11-24 23:00:02	FORECAST	2024	59	139	40.568	33.152	36.86	21.0574856	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	8.568	141.568	34	314.58660759593	6.6244029594041	0.72525594340889	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	DRY	L
2023-11-24 19:00:02	FORECAST	2024	59	139	39.542	31.748	35.645	21.3180488	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	7.542	138.542	34	314.77405101328	6.7103685804748	0.68553236030586	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-24 15:00:02	FORECAST	2024	59	139	39.956	32.774	36.365	21.080216	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	7.956	140.956	34	314.60296428365	6.6318984413396	0.70185744580112	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	DRY	L
2023-11-24 11:00:03	FORECAST	2024	59	139	37.706	28.814	33.26	21.7774784	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	5.706	135.706	34	315.10425247271	6.8621760519726	0.60907495068002	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-24 07:00:05	FORECAST	2024	59	139	38.426	29.174	33.8	21.674370833333	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	6.426	138.426	34	315.03018048492	6.8280809555222	0.63975969338263	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-24 03:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	38.606	30.128	34.367	21.426402833333	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	6.606	136.606	34	314.85196200131	6.7461449707055	0.64730090041335	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-23 23:00:03	FORECAST	2024	59	139	34.232	27.77	31.001	21.9834296	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	2.232	129.232	34	315.25214877971	6.9303234189474	0.45483007079962	16	2	4	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-11-23 19:00:02	FORECAST	2024	59	139	34.772	27.32	31.046	21.9950408	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	2.772	129.772	34	315.26048463384	6.9341672221491	0.47895078739458	16	2	4	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-11-23 15:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	36.158	29.3	32.729	22.059296	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	4.158	130.158	34	315.30660995853	6.9554418398319	0.54100213231617	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-23 11:00:02	FORECAST	2024	59	139	43.664	35.618	39.641	20.8802672	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	11.664	141.664	34	314.45904968986	6.5659889809824	0.82806292938005	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	DRY	L
2023-11-23 07:00:06	FORECAST	2024	59	139	42.044	34.232	38.138	21.769320933333	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	10.044	136.044	34	315.09839289392	6.8594780404853	0.77769090716913	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	DRY	L
2023-11-23 03:00:07	FORECAST	2024	59	139	42.692	32.306	37.499	21.500000133333	0	0	1.59	1.59	F	F	10.692	144.692	34	314.90486924727	6.7704547308036	0.79877647787962	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	DRY	L
2023-11-22 23:00:03	FORECAST	2024	59	139	38.174	26.762	32.468	22.2794168	0	0	1.33	1.33	F	F	6.174	130.174	34	315.46456569241	7.0283665446921	0.62911063223308	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-22 19:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	38.696	28.796	33.746	21.8499992	0	0	1.33	1.33	F	F	6.696	133.696	34	315.15633945285	6.8861657649197	0.65105013764458	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-22 15:00:03	FORECAST	2024	59	139	42.44	30.38	36.41	21.318836	0	0	1.33	1.33	F	F	10.44	144.44	34	314.77461711965	6.7106284393367	0.79072255532984	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	DRY	L
2023-11-22 11:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	39.002	29.444	34.223	22.018501440293	0	0	1.33	1.33	F	F	7.002	138.002	34	315.27732662819	6.9419342704547	0.66368580895106	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-22 07:00:06	FORECAST	2024	59	139	37.94	27.176	32.558	22.005509736575	0	0	1.34	1.34	F	F	5.94	131.94	34	315.26800022922	6.9376330486747	0.61913270997673	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-22 03:00:06	FORECAST	2024	59	139	38.516	27.914	33.215	22.691408220345	0	0	1.43	1.43	F	F	6.516	128.516	34	315.75996798074	7.165038333094	0.64353730869141	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-21 23:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	38.984	31.406	35.195	24.438742748282	0	0	1.61	1.61	F	F	6.984	127.984	34	317.00939557643	7.7473110672805	0.66294745694852	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-21 19:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	38.642	28.994	33.818	24.516340620624	0	0	1.6	1.6	F	F	6.642	120.642	34	317.06475326448	7.7732674898261	0.64880233623472	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-21 15:00:03	FORECAST	2024	59	139	38.282	29.39	33.836	24.754979488617	0	0	1.6	1.6	F	F	6.282	125.282	34	317.23492792585	7.8531441338773	0.63368717757923	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-21 11:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	41.666	29.138	35.402	24.687527375631	0	0	1.56	1.56	F	F	9.666	118.666	34	317.18683791791	7.8305587442882	0.76483153929157	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	DRY	L
2023-11-21 07:00:08	FORECAST	2024	59	139	42.224	29.48	35.852	23.436727429557	0	0	1.48	1.48	F	F	10.224	132.224	34	316.29358506255	7.4128865408284	0.78367082451111	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	DRY	L
2023-11-21 03:00:06	FORECAST	2024	59	139	37.418	27.788	32.603	24.850005050587	0	0	1.51	1.51	F	F	5.418	118.418	34	317.3026624559	7.8849727645938	0.59659598939995	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-20 23:00:03	FORECAST	2024	59	139	35.078	27.842	31.46	24.838931838012	0	0	1.44	1.44	F	F	3.078	99.078	34	317.29477027543	7.8812631714291	0.49265922763377	16	2	4	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-11-20 19:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	38.408	29.21	33.809	23.416802085502	0	0	1.52	1.52	F	F	6.408	115.408	34	316.27933249593	7.4062505327918	0.6390025169015	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-20 15:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	36.824	28.688	32.756	24.501273635068	0	0	1.67	1.67	F	F	4.824	112.824	34	317.05400545368	7.7682269447148	0.57055904432958	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-20 11:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	34.664	28.76	31.712	23.670242739394	0.08267721	0.09267721	1.58	1.67267721	F	F	2.664	115.664	34	316.46056443697	7.4906983776687	0.47411761791993	16	2	4	1	2	2	2	14	DRY	L
2023-11-20 07:00:06	FORECAST	2024	59	139	34.466	29.246	31.856	23.069945501586	0.02362206	0.02362206	1.57	1.59362206	F	F	2.466	114.466	34	316.03111093241	7.2908205060162	0.46526720408482	16	2	4	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-11-20 03:00:05	FORECAST	2024	59	139	32.648	28.112	30.38	27.014330646638	0.37795296	0.39795296	1.68	2.07795296	F	F	0.648	114.648	34	318.84098237134	8.6132757214782	0.38534869774401	16	2	4	1	2	2	2	14	DRY	L
2023-11-19 23:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	35.474	29.102	32.288	17.793322714305	0	0.02	1.82	1.84	F	F	3.474	108.474	34	312.22789921915	5.555571771216	0.51041008117334	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-19 19:00:05	FORECAST	2024	59	139	36.23	29.066	32.648	17.571934199384	0	0	1.75	1.75	F	F	4.23	110.23	34	312.06721295803	5.4836245318836	0.54421141647633	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-19 15:00:03	FORECAST	2024	59	139	36.554	27.032	31.793	17.285798028388	0	0	1.7	1.7	F	F	4.554	101.554	34	311.85939821673	5.3907385708289	0.55861454660048	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2023-11-19 11:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	44.654	28.31	36.482	21.22737410821	0	0	1.57	1.57	F	F	12.654	103.654	34	314.70883571385	6.680442190857	0.85494258576237	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	DRY	L
2023-11-19 07:00:07	FORECAST	2024	59	139	40.928	30.47	35.699	19.286052320816	0	0	1.39	1.39	F	F	8.928	112.928	34	313.30898369477	6.042493452119	0.73858398444105	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	DRY	L
2023-11-19 03:00:07	FORECAST	2024	59	139	43.628	29.156	36.392	18.841260462876	0	0	1.36	1.36	F	F	11.628	118.628	34	312.98727923484	5.8970748496304	0.82702918356851	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	DRY	L
2023-11-18 23:00:05	FORECAST	2024	59	139	28.526	19.544	24.035	20.50582761748	0	0	1.38	1.38	F	F	-3.474	82.526	34	314.18934741824	6.4427125974068	0.22521537855523	16	1	4	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-18 19:00:03	FORECAST	2024	59	139	27.5	19.544	23.522	20.164152014238	0	0	1.26	1.26	F	F	-4.5	74.5	34	313.94302054432	6.3303947900647	0.19214177667597	16	1	4	1	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2023-11-18 15:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	32.54	28.634	30.587	20.187017756574	0	0	1.36	1.36	F	F	0.54	84.54	34	313.95951199871	6.3379062435632	0.38071673812597	16	2	4	1	1	2	2	7	DRY	L
2023-11-18 11:00:04	FORECAST	2024	59	139	27.986	25.25	26.618	28.107792284781	0	1.03	1.42	2.45	F	F	-4.014	74.986	34	319.61496348871	8.9836710048488	0.20742272861447	16	1	4	1	4	2	2	24	DRY	L
2023-11-18 07:00:06	FORECAST	2024	59	139	34.286	29.426	31.856	25.354541020138	0	0.72	1.4	2.12	F	F	2.286	100.286	34	317.66202362458	8.0541748085295	0.45723613962004	16	2	4	1	3	2	2	21	DRY	L
2023-11-18 03:00:05	FORECAST	2024	59	139	37.256	37.112	37.184	21.049240303788	0	0	1.44	1.44	F	F	5.256	106.256	34	314.58067408658	6.6216842037759	0.58953222150888	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	DRY	L