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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 22, 2023

[ Tuesday, November 21, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, November 23, 2023 ]

DAY 53 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/23/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.78°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.26°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.52°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.426
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 120

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.44 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.51 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.92 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.43 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 23 in
SWE DAY: 40
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 322.67 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.58 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 133

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 21.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-23 07:00:04OBSERVATION20245313334.7799226.2599830.5199523.4776433333330.439999999999940.509999999999941.922.4299999999999FF2.77992119.7799240322.67017444052 7.5755352698190.4263540444330516 24132221DRYL
2023-11-23 03:00:05OBSERVATION20245313334.7799226.2599830.5199523.4776433333330.439999999999940.509999999999941.922.4299999999999FF2.77992119.7799240322.67017444052 7.5755352698190.4263540444330516 24132221DRYL
2023-11-22 11:00:01FORECAST20245313334.57425.01629.79523.3924606402930.181102460.251102461.922.17110246FF2.574119.57440322.610618160767.54665618746620.418124022988351624122214DRYL
2023-11-22 07:00:04FORECAST20245313334.3424.11629.22823.0524857365750.192913490.262913491.922.18291349FF2.34119.3440322.372793128317.43149421545020.408815239967641624122214DRYL
2023-11-22 03:00:05FORECAST20245313332.91824.24228.5823.6670442203450.279527710.349527711.922.26952771FF0.918117.91840322.80254968027.63978221772130.353523522302831624122214DRYL
2023-11-21 23:00:02FORECAST20245313334.93425.91630.42526.0148155482820.397638010.527638011.922.44763801FF2.934111.93440324.43816736358.4401990807840.432533422266971624132221DRYL
2023-11-21 19:00:02FORECAST20245313334.23225.50229.86725.5571174206240.3937010.5237011.922.443701FF2.232111.23240324.120068555228.28357465044640.40453582580711624132221DRYL
2023-11-21 15:00:01FORECAST20245313335.52826.85231.1925.9387314886170.389763990.519763991.922.43976399FF3.528112.52840324.385314797268.41414357937670.456497270624751624132221DRYL
2023-11-21 11:00:02FORECAST20245313334.35825.1629.75925.5972353756310.35433090.48433091.922.4043309FF2.358111.35840324.147965200938.29729176178010.409529548337361624122214DRYL
2023-11-21 07:00:05FORECAST20245313335.74427.12231.43324.7516466295570.334645850.404645851.922.32464585FF3.744112.74440323.559369970938.00862718920270.465255502509561624122214DRYL
2023-11-21 03:00:05FORECAST20245313335.72626.54631.13625.4256450505870.374015950.434015951.922.35401595FF3.726113.72640324.028627267128.2386368631230.464524947387921624122214DRYL
2023-11-20 23:00:02FORECAST20245313333.3525.2529.325.1841190380120.303149770.363149771.922.28314977FF1.35102.3540323.860562186488.15614294982180.370056469083521624122214DRYL
2023-11-20 19:00:02FORECAST20245313334.91627.57231.24424.2771132855020.377952960.437952961.922.35795296FF2.916105.91640323.228503819567.84705500433070.431810650317271624122214DRYL
2023-11-20 15:00:02FORECAST20245313335.25828.77832.01825.3429872350680.547244390.587244391.922.50724439FF3.258105.25840323.971121702788.21039600184410.445579620630831624132221DRYL
2023-11-20 11:00:02FORECAST20245313335.38427.39231.38823.9454031388720.47244120.50244121.922.4224412FF3.384106.38440322.99698354177.73429298354570.450669902945711624132221DRYL
2023-11-20 07:00:05FORECAST20245313335.29429.19232.24323.7244788186970.468504190.488504191.922.40850419FF3.294106.29440322.842679036397.65927430057040.447033109401051624122214DRYL
2023-11-20 03:00:04FORECAST20245313335.18627.0531.11825.2567636548150.527559340.597559341.922.51755934FF3.186104.18640323.911122546188.18094666731480.442674855437361624132221DRYL
2023-11-19 23:00:03FORECAST20245313335.52830.03832.78318.2246594319290.425197080.505197082.152.65519708FF3.528101.52840318.973290581485.81317958872910.456497270624751624132221DRYL
2023-11-19 19:00:03FORECAST20245313335.7830.07432.92718.2784461993840.334645850.444645852.152.59464585FF3.78101.7840319.011394496355.83103261129190.466716961661461624122214DRYL
2023-11-19 15:00:02FORECAST20245313335.31225.86230.58717.6149460283880.307086780.387086782.152.53708678FF3.312100.31240318.540989924435.6110823453480.44776012189661624122214DRYL
2023-11-19 11:00:03FORECAST20245313333.24226.47429.85821.980626108210.145669370.255669372.152.40566937FF1.24294.24240321.621641795237.06944505660950.365899272452371624122214DRYL
2023-11-19 07:00:06FORECAST20245313334.71826.72630.72220.4991275208160.145669370.255669371.972.22566937FF2.71898.71840320.580046025146.57161124409830.423875737676181624122214DRYL
2023-11-19 03:00:05FORECAST20245313335.4229.13832.27919.9132300628760.181102460.271102461.932.20110246FF3.42102.4240320.167036903086.37555986440020.452125798253551624122214DRYL
2023-11-18 23:00:03FORECAST20245313334.82627.42831.12720.6793068174800.112.112.22FF2.82690.82640320.706933965666.6319970859690.428200260390071624122214DRYL
2023-11-18 19:00:02FORECAST20245313333.827.60830.70420.23903441423800.131.972.1FF1.888.840320.396777813776.48452141238390.38753689438421624122214DRYL
2023-11-18 15:00:03FORECAST20245313336.0524.65630.35320.6985993565740.043307110.173307112.032.20330711FF4.0589.0540320.720516938336.63846548553980.47769085573561624122214DRYL
2023-11-18 11:00:03FORECAST20245313335.56426.04230.80321.38780107308400.142.122.26FF3.56490.56440321.205315219086.86987538552310.457955625446191624122214DRYL
2023-11-18 07:00:05FORECAST20245313336.73426.22231.47820.7755594658600.132.112.24FF4.73497.73440320.77469432176.66427373702360.505548130367911634122216DRYL
2023-11-18 03:00:04FORECAST20245313336.526.22231.36122.0292059037880.023622060.063622062.222.28362206FF4.592.540321.65573041937.085820315540.49601421198526162411227DRYL
2023-11-17 23:00:03FORECAST20245313334.08825.2529.66925.05956485247700.162.392.55FF2.08875.08840323.773851263138.11363182326450.398847738431581624122214DRYL
2023-11-17 19:00:03FORECAST20245313332.97226.49229.73225.23385109167400.152.362.51FF0.97271.97240323.895176502038.17312265316390.355575844178671624122214DRYL
2023-11-17 15:00:03FORECAST20245313334.35828.54431.45123.9362063806880.129921330.259921332.072.32992133FF2.35880.35840322.990561796627.73116874617820.409529548337361624122214DRYL
2023-11-17 11:00:04FORECAST20245313336.30228.59832.4522.915894605540.043307110.233307112.192.42330711FF4.30285.30240322.277184729057.38526999902130.48794861000771624122214DRYL
2023-11-17 07:00:07FORECAST20245313334.17825.46629.82224.085477347110.031496080.171496082.472.64149608FF2.17885.17840323.094773473237.78189184745910.402400358480041624122214DRYL
2023-11-17 03:00:08FORECAST20245313332.84626.61829.73225.2319036424870.007874020.117874022.432.54787402FF0.84671.84640323.893821128098.17245768510070.350793709284191624122214DRYL
2023-11-16 23:00:03FORECAST20245313333.36826.34829.85823.85285976003300.082.122.2FF1.36874.36840322.932357193317.70286022810890.37075082822205162411227DRYL
2023-11-16 19:00:03FORECAST20245313336.01428.7632.38723.4601543568900.132.292.42FF4.01485.01440322.65794790967.56960526243660.476226509274131624122214DRYL
2023-11-16 15:00:03FORECAST20245313335.2429.15632.19824.73413237816600.132.492.62FF3.2478.2440323.547165327738.00265841779660.444853149177761624122214DRYL
2023-11-16 11:00:04FORECAST20245313336.71632.30634.51123.6600867064380.007874020.287874022.42.68787402FF4.71683.71640322.797688091637.63742128888570.504814795133811634122216DRYL
2023-11-16 03:00:07FORECAST20245313336.0529.82232.93623.5669182882640.03937010.31937012.242.5593701FF4.0577.0540322.732578035887.60581229553230.47769085573561624122214DRYL
2023-11-15 23:00:03FORECAST20245313336.24832.28834.26822.48564204147600.072.282.35FF4.24873.24840321.975808026187.23983276529160.48574961673827162411227DRYL
2023-11-15 19:00:03FORECAST20245313333.9830.68632.33324.19406269632600.092.312.4FF1.9868.9840323.170556168647.81880869755050.39459565217178162411227DRYL
2023-11-15 15:00:05FORECAST20245313336.98629.08433.03524.8002854657250.062992160.272992162.322.59299216FF4.98672.98640323.593260644178.02520523876020.515811728016331634122216DRYL
2023-11-15 11:00:04FORECAST20245313335.40226.38430.89326.2324069077810.110236280.420236282.442.86023628FF3.40261.40240324.589263052838.51475762629850.451397768885121624122214DRYL
2023-11-15 07:00:05FORECAST20245313335.81626.22231.01925.8112608145040.106299270.456299272.452.90629927FF3.81665.81640324.296743102058.37050781750140.468178869680741624122214DRYL
2023-11-15 03:00:08FORECAST20245313335.58227.51831.5527.4275043285570.051181130.511181132.563.07118113FF3.58261.58240325.417652818778.92539408127570.458685016411311624132221DRYL
2023-11-14 23:00:04FORECAST20245313336.0528.34632.19827.6997091254690.07874020.25874022.122.3787402FF4.0559.0540325.605982050859.01919099232120.47769085573561624122214DRYL
2023-11-14 19:00:04FORECAST20245313335.31224.18829.7528.0402138556270.070866180.240866182.132.37086618FF3.31261.31240325.841382438219.13666204658060.44776012189661624122214DRYL
2023-11-14 15:00:05FORECAST20245313339.21829.87634.54724.949451902960.051181130.181181132.092.27118113FF7.21883.21840323.697171049918.07606700023380.60549664720281634122216DRYL
2023-11-14 11:00:05FORECAST20245313339.88430.68635.28526.0572546041520.177165450.447165452.442.88716545FF7.88491.88440324.467643648238.45473600135120.631421404240131634122216DRYL
2023-11-14 07:00:07FORECAST20245313336.6828.65232.66626.2573887283770.181102460.451102462.42.85110246FF4.6885.6840324.60660511418.52332181427950.503348078330681634122216DRYL
2023-11-14 03:00:07FORECAST20245313337.36428.74233.05327.768290711940.334645850.534645852.392.92464585FF5.36479.36440325.653410783339.04283858196630.531185383099361634132224DRYL
2023-11-13 23:00:04FORECAST20245313333.56626.9630.26326.8140384824250.090551230.090551232.322.41055123FF1.56658.56640324.992738974968.71436780938310.378416104449041624122214DRYL
2023-11-13 19:00:04FORECAST20245313332.70226.72629.71431.0518726338040.094488240.564488242.32.86448824FF0.70247.70240327.9145859442810.1823619575080.345357238900181624131210.5DRYL
2023-11-13 15:00:03FORECAST20245313331.5519.56225.55646.00404816433903.142.185.32TT-0.4527.5540337.975966448315.5482626388770.3030860641131624151217.5WETL
2023-11-13 11:00:08FORECAST20245313339.97424.04432.00937.6916889347201.472.083.55TF7.97433.97440332.4297445721812.5298385250630.634882225627821634141216DRYL
2023-11-13 07:00:09FORECAST20245313336.93225.84431.38838.6950461732970.015748041.655748042.153.80574804TF4.93240.93240333.1054414066412.8895304358060.513613035542341634151220DRYL
2023-11-13 03:00:08FORECAST20245313333.60216.41225.00738.0642430521330.496063261.356063262.023.37606326TF1.60227.60240332.6808369239212.6632442354590.379815045188961624141214DRYL
2023-11-12 23:00:05FORECAST20245313329.71420.31825.01641.6677258614680.633858611.793858612.364.15385861TF-2.28622.71440335.0972716712513.9627412529240.241002652802941614151215WETL
2023-11-12 19:00:05FORECAST20245313329.53415.0822.30743.8875232909250.598425521.728425522.464.18842552TF-2.46613.53440336.57485903214.7714369649070.235310652948691614151215WETL
2023-11-12 15:00:03FORECAST20245313335.9632.61234.28628.3532394896620.370078940.680078942.733.41007894TF3.9649.9640326.057606224659.24478939671340.474030597596471624132221DRYL
2023-11-12 11:00:05FORECAST20245313340.69438.98439.83930.08390831855400.352.592.94FF8.69461.69440327.249975197359.84495825108630.662153598061351634122216DRYL
2023-11-12 07:00:08FORECAST20245313338.3935.52836.95934.64910154798500.82.843.64TF6.3947.3940330.3701967680311.4470304962430.572615180680251634131212DRYL
2023-11-12 03:00:08FORECAST20245313322.56822.24422.40641.57502491986302.552.915.46TF-9.43231.56840335.0353847522313.929104470110.0758307232243821614151215WETL