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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 21, 2023

[ Monday, November 20, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, November 22, 2023 ]

DAY 52 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/22/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.01°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.79°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.90°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.924
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 132

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.07 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.73 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.31 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.04 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 23 in
SWE DAY: 41
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 323.33 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.41 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 132

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-22 07:00:04OBSERVATION20245213252.0100631.7899441.922.9297441666670.0699999999999360.729999999999943.314.0399999999999TF20.01006132.0100641323.33222283228 7.41392515038380.9237744358216316 54132230WETL
2023-11-22 03:00:04OBSERVATION20245213252.0100631.7899441.922.9297441666670.0699999999999360.729999999999943.314.0399999999999TF20.01006132.0100641323.33222283228 7.41392515038380.9237744358216316 54132230WETL
2023-11-21 11:00:02FORECAST20245213243.5230.18236.85124.6222921247990.125984320.785984323.314.09598432TF11.52123.5241324.510075772767.99018188311740.7331595663361644132227WETL
2023-11-21 07:00:05FORECAST20245213244.38433.63839.01124.6504579112460.074803190.734803193.314.04480319TF12.384124.38441324.52963368847.99980407618780.759474038268671644132227WETL
2023-11-21 03:00:04FORECAST20245213244.85235.4240.13624.5091107360680.059055150.719055153.314.02905515TF12.852124.85241324.431470140227.95152682793190.773115898998281644132227WETL
2023-11-20 23:00:01FORECAST20245213244.04234.3439.19124.2589117641180.062992160.722992163.314.03299216TF12.042116.04241324.257624181677.86613709386570.749229663575491644132227WETL
2023-11-20 19:00:02FORECAST20245213245.60835.65440.63123.9825539193830.059055150.719055153.314.02905515TF13.608117.60841324.065473777977.77191769829050.79420423657941644132227WETL
2023-11-20 15:00:02FORECAST20245213245.35635.43840.39723.9376662480850.035433090.695433093.314.00543309TF13.356117.35641324.034250840797.75662374957480.787307132667311644132227WETL
2023-11-20 11:00:02FORECAST20245213245.5934.84440.21723.3652481763560.027559070.687559073.313.99755907TF13.59117.5941323.635776343327.56183023300940.793716022430731644132227DRYL
2023-11-20 07:00:04FORECAST20245213246.43635.8741.15323.4140573698340.015748040.675748043.313.98574804TF14.436118.43641323.669776239227.57842270974630.815915041203151644132227DRYL
2023-11-20 03:00:04FORECAST20245213245.57234.93440.25323.8488099245290.074803190.734803193.314.04480319TF13.572115.57241323.972433717957.72635699252630.79322712386041644132227WETL
2023-11-19 23:00:03FORECAST20245213245.60836.15840.88317.3334305523550.07874020.96874023.314.2787402TF13.608112.60841319.401470742695.53632321143860.79420423657941644132227WETL
2023-11-19 19:00:03FORECAST20245213245.8635.5140.68517.4592901270960.114173291.004173293.314.31417329TF13.86112.8641319.490487847695.57807712018040.800967117023051644142236WETL
2023-11-19 15:00:02FORECAST20245213245.71633.24239.47917.664817198920.082677210.972677213.314.28267721TF13.716111.71641319.635790474765.64630780896890.797119122760181644132227WETL
2023-11-19 11:00:03FORECAST20245213242.81832.28837.55321.5109386249340.110236281.000236283.314.31023628TF10.818107.81841322.340959723986.93385660092490.710758394711431644142236WETL
2023-11-19 07:00:06FORECAST20245213244.40232.48638.44420.1413947937570.114173290.824173293.314.13417329TF12.402111.40241321.380719459886.47305594974310.760006840200881644132227WETL
2023-11-19 03:00:05FORECAST20245213246.07634.64640.36119.5528473873870.094488240.764488243.314.07448824TF14.076114.07641320.967038777496.27581952559760.80665613577641644132227WETL
2023-11-18 23:00:03FORECAST20245213242.90833.54838.22820.752811617480.110236280.910236283.364.27023628TF10.908102.90841321.809820269256.67845857670270.713679069985281644132227WETL
2023-11-18 19:00:02FORECAST20245213242.3533.33237.84120.2811496142380.133858340.793858343.364.15385834TF10.35102.3541321.478860092136.51996085934310.695350006755091634132224WETL
2023-11-18 15:00:02FORECAST20245213240.6430.39835.51920.5643225771920.125984320.845984323.364.20598432TF8.6499.6441321.6776070916.61508207807840.636221958725231634132224WETL
2023-11-18 11:00:03FORECAST20245213242.38634.08838.23721.5217234730840.137795350.947795353.364.30779535TF10.386102.38641322.34850815116.93749545438930.696548135273791634132224WETL
2023-11-18 07:00:05FORECAST20245213243.73636.24839.99221.027266665860.125984320.895984323.394.28598432TF11.736107.73641322.002220031836.77082654760830.739871749151231644132227WETL
2023-11-18 03:00:04FORECAST20245213241.97233.65637.81422.0364278255960.03937010.85937013.454.3093701TF9.972102.97241322.708514755267.11134289410960.68264504882081634132224WETL
2023-11-17 23:00:03FORECAST20245213239.50633.76436.63525.1167352524770.15748041.11748043.484.5974804TF7.50687.50641324.853206714868.15925198897510.59502436720611634142232WETL
2023-11-17 19:00:03FORECAST20245213239.16432.28835.72625.2503822916740.145669371.095669373.464.55566937TF7.16486.16441324.945880398838.20500770417520.582366382776051634142232WETL
2023-11-17 15:00:02FORECAST20245213240.06432.12636.09523.3710626753190.133858340.823858343.434.25385834TF8.06493.06441323.639826874387.56380667811050.615459501876251634132224WETL
2023-11-17 11:00:03FORECAST20245213240.98233.90837.44522.9613431931920.185039470.955039473.474.42503947TF8.98295.98241323.354259177097.42464811794550.648367466413971634132224WETL
2023-11-17 07:00:06FORECAST20245213241.6333.42237.52624.0173925401980.141732361.111732363.554.66173236TF9.6397.6341324.089704349627.78378964760160.670961235691431634142232WETL
2023-11-17 03:00:08FORECAST20245213238.73232.48635.60925.2095636772160.114173291.114173293.484.59417329TF6.73285.73241324.917579244958.19103040382240.566256167239771634142232WETL
2023-11-16 23:00:03FORECAST20245213240.22633.90837.06723.8782469600330.07874020.72874023.524.2487402TF8.22688.22641323.992914535627.73638282658230.621335426479191634132224WETL
2023-11-16 19:00:03FORECAST20245213243.26836.26639.76723.665023156890.125984320.905984323.564.46598432TF11.26896.26841323.844529440827.66378828844920.725219738635011644132227WETL
2023-11-16 15:00:03FORECAST20245213242.65635.29438.97524.9026915781660.133858341.123858343.554.67385834TF10.65689.65641324.704718749438.08602146499230.705466215783271644142236WETL
2023-11-16 11:00:03FORECAST20245213244.36636.87840.62223.9253825706560.27559071.01559073.714.7255907TF12.36694.36641324.025705948047.75243897753370.758940593925441644142236WETL
2023-11-16 03:00:07FORECAST20245213242.29636.17639.23623.5173248406570.27559070.84559073.724.5655907TF10.29688.29641323.741697222937.61353865805750.693548884790261634132224WETL
2023-11-15 23:00:03FORECAST20245213243.68236.42840.05522.8536580414760.066929170.456929173.944.39692917TF11.68283.68241323.279155076947.38811126206550.738201888272811644122218WETL
2023-11-15 19:00:03FORECAST20245213241.73834.35838.04824.2790802963260.094488240.514488243.944.45448824TF9.73881.73841324.271641993897.87301723379110.674669626940341634132224WETL
2023-11-15 15:00:04FORECAST20245213242.04435.54638.79524.7603478463620.208661530.748661533.834.57866153TF10.04483.04441324.60592629618.03735564808210.685082296861634132224WETL
2023-11-15 11:00:04FORECAST20245213241.48635.52838.50726.1830783459120.31496080.84496083.964.8049608TF9.48673.48641325.591756446158.52499446781250.665990494418081634132224WETL
2023-11-15 07:00:04FORECAST20245213241.43236.15838.79525.9008048145040.350393890.920393893.934.85039389TF9.43277.43241325.396448298788.42802989471960.664118878522461634132224WETL
2023-11-15 03:00:07FORECAST20245213241.50434.80838.15627.2975524538010.460630171.000630174.075.07063017TF9.50472.50441326.361506877638.90887035289360.666613453556591634142232WETL
2023-11-14 23:00:03FORECAST20245213242.45836.28439.37127.8721897069760.177165450.977165453.374.34716545TF10.45870.45841326.75754955959.10744840950890.698938059145091634132224WETL
2023-11-14 19:00:04FORECAST20245213241.64835.31238.4828.1473714556270.173228440.943228443.414.35322844TF9.64872.64841326.947001514229.20269869792430.671580482360831634132224WETL
2023-11-14 15:00:05FORECAST20245213249.0139.52444.26725.528732702960.133858340.833858343.444.27385834TF17.0191.0141325.138793499348.30038135060740.873895206224021654132230WETL
2023-11-14 11:00:05FORECAST20245213247.17440.33443.75426.6477530041520.259842661.249842663.514.75984266TF15.17499.17441325.912965091448.68484819460730.83401702700231644142236WETL
2023-11-14 07:00:07FORECAST20245213246.3137.441.85526.1534682765150.255905651.225905653.494.71590565TF14.3196.3141325.571275488368.51481802522950.812706224484751644142236WETL
2023-11-14 03:00:07FORECAST20245213247.338.10242.70126.2208336701670.185039471.075039473.564.63503947TF15.389.341325.617869152578.53797198708350.836988870079891644142236WETL
2023-11-13 23:00:03FORECAST20245213239.7433.49436.61726.19916750958900.443.934.37TF7.7471.7441325.602884496998.53052451254210.603629022893321634122216WETL
2023-11-13 19:00:03FORECAST20245213239.34432.91836.13130.36672405809400.933.894.82TF7.34462.34441328.470108700279.97456115223310.589040002837881634132224WETL
2023-11-13 15:00:03FORECAST20245213229.19222.74825.9746.0040481643390.271653693.491653693.887.37165369TT-2.80843.19241338.9618034991115.5936151340440.229400428859081614151215WETL
2023-11-13 11:00:08FORECAST20245213233.33226.25829.79537.953334534720.460630171.770630173.835.60063017TF1.33241.33241333.6123159120712.6616998307140.364331082261791624151217.5WETL
2023-11-13 07:00:09FORECAST20245213233.27828.16630.72238.7466150304770.507874291.967874293.875.83787429TT1.27851.27841334.144301607712.9469606190210.362402885903341624151217.5WETL
2023-11-13 03:00:08FORECAST20245213225.86218.73422.29834.5981650988940.299212761.319212763.614.92921276TF-6.13840.86241331.3503973209511.4641157520940.145071233311961614141212WETL
2023-11-12 23:00:05FORECAST20245213226.27620.3923.33334.9283698789050.173228441.473228444.15.57322844TF-5.72440.27641331.573864115211.5813345679930.154246913897741614141212WETL
2023-11-12 19:00:05FORECAST20245213223.61215.9819.79636.9344938065950.169291431.459291434.185.63929143TF-8.38830.61241332.9274918579412.2965083860730.101660546374811614141212WETL
2023-11-12 15:00:03FORECAST20245213245.15828.3136.73428.4630538896620.255905650.815905654.275.08590565TF13.15861.15841327.164173593949.31209150377090.781794701413641644132227WETL
2023-11-12 11:00:04FORECAST20245213246.16628.2237.19330.4129579185540.35433090.92433094.074.9943309TF14.16668.16641328.501747073879.99070980992920.808997040863231644132227WETL
2023-11-12 07:00:08FORECAST20245213241.70226.5134.10634.8485583479850.503937281.363937284.335.69393728TF9.70255.70241331.5198686649411.5529894866860.673435392651811634141216WETL
2023-11-12 03:00:08FORECAST20245213239.50622.89231.19941.5750249198631.157480942.987480944.527.50748094TT7.50655.50641336.0323748093513.970554356580.59502436720611634151220WETL
2023-11-11 23:00:04FORECAST20245213224.31422.29823.30633.7530263175980.059055151.729055155.657.37905515TT-7.68631.31441330.7775933632211.1647448140610.11405239286451614151215WETL
2023-11-11 19:00:04FORECAST20245213226.61822.3724.49437.1344506042990.059055151.739055155.877.60905515TT-5.38236.61841333.0620346462512.3680756737390.162109483347971614151215WETL
2023-11-11 15:00:04FORECAST20245213237.50836.26636.88722.69602862103100.575.616.18TF5.50862.50841323.169180718167.33465697501460.52009790574331634132224WETL
2023-11-11 11:00:05FORECAST20245213238.40835.92437.16632.33447018493900.785.746.52TT6.40855.40841329.8133798664710.6643408978860.554099316600411634131212WETL
2023-11-11 07:00:09FORECAST20245213235.97834.55635.26731.73734122385400.785.836.61TT3.97853.97841329.4064623532410.4544852970480.46209201144131624131210.5WETL
2023-11-11 03:00:07FORECAST20245213236.66236.28436.47330.10047368992500.435.846.27TF4.66237.66241328.287838122919.88161943414130.487998030732331624122214WETL