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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 20, 2023

[ Sunday, November 19, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, November 21, 2023 ]

DAY 51 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/21/2023 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.97°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.24°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.10°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.954
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 125

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.94 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.16 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 25 in
SWE DAY: 42
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 326.09 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 8.28 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 131

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-21 07:00:05OBSERVATION20245113150.9700221.2399636.1049925.40185208333300.943.164.1TF18.97002124.9700242326.08573392961 8.28318157976520.9537815067996916 54132230WETL
2023-11-21 03:00:04OBSERVATION20245113150.9700221.2399636.1049925.40185208333300.943.164.1TF18.97002124.9700242326.08573392961 8.28318157976520.9537815067996916 54132230WETL
2023-11-20 11:00:02FORECAST20245113142.87223.28833.0824.379292800.943.164.1TF10.872116.87242325.378832959037.93250583963050.782048444897221644132227WETL
2023-11-20 07:00:04FORECAST20245113143.01624.24233.62924.53991273333300.943.164.1TF11.016117.01642325.489992004927.98749599937420.786744195767051644132227WETL
2023-11-20 03:00:03FORECAST20245113140.7482331.87424.69656553333300.943.164.1TF8.748114.74842325.598361871288.04116128150010.70626239213541644132227WETL
2023-11-19 23:00:02FORECAST20245113142.02623.75632.89118.355873601.173.164.33TF10.026112.02642321.177341139645.89549067714340.753287603363521644142236WETL
2023-11-19 19:00:02FORECAST20245113142.1723.10832.63918.352429601.173.164.33TF10.17112.1742321.174920425655.89434011639730.758321983355451644142236WETL
2023-11-19 15:00:02FORECAST20245113141.01822.31631.66718.462342401.173.164.33TF9.018111.01842321.252165338545.93106747322150.716534111223951644142236WETL
2023-11-19 11:00:02FORECAST20245113139.50619.77829.64221.92723820867401.173.164.33TF7.506109.50642323.676214905737.09732546671980.656947508849561634142232WETL
2023-11-19 07:00:05FORECAST20245113140.76621.18230.97420.67392868940100.993.164.15TF8.766111.76642322.801858236036.67358259797770.706952497562941644132227WETL
2023-11-19 03:00:05FORECAST20245113141.70222.1931.94620.48573688822900.953.164.11TF9.702112.70242322.670327916736.61013943934060.74175828350271644132227WETL
2023-11-18 23:00:03FORECAST2024511314121.23631.11821.61239625409701.133.164.29TF910542323.456830829536.99067719898220.715854711498661644142236WETL
2023-11-18 19:00:02FORECAST20245113140.98221.231.09121.0501045881300.993.164.15TF8.982104.98242323.064585338326.80054331009240.715174534889751644132227WETL
2023-11-18 15:00:02FORECAST20245113140.89222.92831.9121.20991559952201.053.164.21TF8.892103.89242323.176123881916.85453831131620.7117620633611644142236WETL
2023-11-18 11:00:02FORECAST20245113141.07221.18231.12722.2780258326601.143.164.3TF9.072105.07242323.920439634827.2163079219110.718567630801111644142236WETL
2023-11-18 07:00:04FORECAST20245113142.22421.7763221.94538136103901.133.164.29TF10.224109.22442323.688851835697.1034752958510.760195420349471644142236WETL
2023-11-18 03:00:03FORECAST20245113141.73823.01832.37822.63813268116401.243.164.4TF9.738105.73842324.170926327587.33862444157960.74305294895481644142236WETL
2023-11-17 23:00:02FORECAST20245113140.53222.4631.49625.67358085247701.443.134.57TF8.53292.53242326.27327298348.37660325394160.697923166437891634142232WETL
2023-11-17 19:00:03FORECAST20245113139.90222.1931.04625.76747429167401.413.134.54TF7.90291.90242326.338045336988.4089071936160.673016479877281634142232WETL
2023-11-17 15:00:02FORECAST20245113142.65623.97233.31423.90970427531901.123.134.25TF10.65697.65642325.053588084447.77193516473020.774894424358961644142236WETL
2023-11-17 11:00:03FORECAST20245113142.33223.05432.69323.2962846228801.243.134.37TF10.332100.33242324.62813857517.56262951284110.76391844603871644142236WETL
2023-11-17 07:00:06FORECAST20245113143.39425.46634.4324.46759082840301.523.134.65TF11.394101.39442325.439946333257.96273144609930.798786773148171644152245WETL
2023-11-17 03:00:07FORECAST20245113140.3723.633225.38317244744501.483.134.61TF8.3792.3742326.07283704928.27676305324740.691599924568911634142232WETL
2023-11-16 23:00:03FORECAST20245113140.02823.10831.56824.57934696003301.183.124.3TF8.02893.02842325.517276024638.00100206889410.678064583535711634142232WETL
2023-11-16 19:00:03FORECAST20245113141.66622.60432.13524.6910399568901.353.124.47TF9.66697.66642325.594540100738.03926779937230.740460249637431644142236WETL
2023-11-16 15:00:03FORECAST20245113141.43223.19832.31525.85000469667101.553.124.67TF9.43292.43242326.394966150678.43731140796470.731941773583791644152245WETL
2023-11-16 11:00:03FORECAST20245113140.80223.07231.93725.01929537065601.463.124.58TF8.80294.80242325.821485260878.15182397784760.70833044961461644142236WETL
2023-11-16 03:00:06FORECAST20245113140.15421.95631.05523.86685828527501.33.124.42TF8.15491.15442325.023892917027.7572991915790.683080063555831634142232WETL
2023-11-15 23:00:02FORECAST20245113140.2824.92632.60323.95859164147601.173.294.46TF8.2885.2842325.08746638687.78863785492330.688062151229661634142232WETL
2023-11-15 19:00:03FORECAST20245113139.81224.90832.3625.11909693796301.23.294.49TF7.81284.81242325.890447329698.18607373763050.669391152952811634142232WETL
2023-11-15 15:00:04FORECAST20245113140.76625.19632.98125.23205172186201.213.294.5TF8.76685.76642325.96847707748.22485347331350.706952497562941644142236WETL
2023-11-15 11:00:04FORECAST20245113137.92220.94829.43526.27172755088301.333.294.62TF5.92276.92242326.685640131018.58259613230760.590061911521441634142232WETL
2023-11-15 07:00:04FORECAST20245113138.64221.48830.06526.27537737566601.333.34.63TF6.64280.64242326.688154426988.58385454172870.620922619311461634142232WETL
2023-11-15 03:00:07FORECAST20245113138.7682330.88427.14838738987301.373.374.74TF6.76875.76842327.28888560578.88536545482350.626250915893081634142232WETL
2023-11-14 23:00:03FORECAST20245113137.41820.85829.13828.76723610697601.063.244.3TF5.41873.41842328.399320332989.44714078538910.568109856794421634142232WETL
2023-11-14 19:00:04FORECAST20245113139.18220.64229.91228.96015545562701.053.264.31TF7.18276.18242328.531347397489.51431889267780.643584144980091634142232WETL
2023-11-14 15:00:04FORECAST20245113141.14425.0733.10727.0374015029601.013.264.27TF9.14487.14442327.212588455038.84697813088140.721268003569441644142236WETL
2023-11-14 11:00:05FORECAST20245113145.80627.48236.64428.1764954041520.011811031.431811033.24.63181103TF13.80696.80642327.994636045159.24173935511260.865669899513361654142240WETL
2023-11-14 07:00:07FORECAST20245113143.3426.7835.0627.5026306765150.011811031.401811033.194.59181103TF11.3495.3442327.532266008369.00799894666990.79709175202131644142236WETL
2023-11-14 03:00:06FORECAST20245113144.0627.24835.65427.7049024701670.011811031.441811033.144.58181103TF12.0687.0642327.671137258259.07809690002820.818988060908241644142236WETL
2023-11-13 23:00:03FORECAST20245113140.44224.04432.24326.71350430958901.153.354.5TF8.44277.44242326.989802596858.73504350086250.694417420672361634142232WETL
2023-11-13 19:00:03FORECAST20245113138.13822.26230.230.7848256580940.47244121.62244123.334.9524412TF6.13868.13842329.7768915724910.1521241131270.599388398721241634151220WETL
2023-11-13 15:00:03FORECAST20245113133.36820.04826.70844.2138847197342.866143283.896143283.337.22614328TT1.36859.36842338.7683004777414.9782625840230.389906677988891624151217.5WETL
2023-11-13 11:00:07FORECAST20245113133.9815.5324.75535.0955166878521.007874561.937874563.335.26787456TF1.9852.9842332.6965997656511.6761590690670.416290744557741624151217.5WETL
2023-11-13 07:00:08FORECAST20245113133.9818.51826.24935.6105286598091.133858882.143858883.325.46385888TF1.9862.9842333.043293588211.859847751280.416290744557741624151217.5WETL
2023-11-13 03:00:08FORECAST20245113130.68621.97426.3331.8464400871560.559055421.529055423.234.75905542TF-1.31459.68642330.4989118070910.5252137937350.281524269386251624151217.5WETL
2023-11-12 23:00:05FORECAST20245113132.43222.38827.4133.0081435169020.992126521.872126523.665.53212652TF0.43259.43242331.2867763825510.9351614600870.350554548558031624151217.5WETL
2023-11-12 19:00:04FORECAST20245113130.48820.51625.50234.8312698291280.960630441.880630443.725.60063044TF-1.51252.48842332.5185389360711.582042952870.274127591472571624151217.5WETL
2023-11-12 15:00:03FORECAST20245113135.25822.8229.03928.8354978896620.051181131.261181133.74.96118113TF3.25861.25842328.446043638259.47090519819850.472480281484131624142228WETL
2023-11-12 11:00:04FORECAST20245113135.00622.78428.89528.47108454817101.173.64.77TF3.00667.00642328.196518928599.34411083883120.461320883967051624142228WETL
2023-11-12 07:00:07FORECAST20245113134.17821.79427.98631.43037486190.299212761.529212763.795.31921276TF2.17859.17842330.2161714458510.3788180540050.424914425923091624151217.5WETL
2023-11-12 03:00:07FORECAST20245113133.85427.39230.62339.0129567427931.385827522.575827523.96.47582752TT1.85460.85442335.322367310713.0819170107830.410823576257671624151217.5WETL
2023-11-11 23:00:04FORECAST20245113128.86823.25226.0633.0611812181391.255906192.435906195.017.44590619TT-3.13251.86842331.3226909667110.9539195277320.217441449116061614151215WETL
2023-11-11 19:00:04FORECAST20245113130.25423.52226.88836.4919440681681.275591242.385591245.297.67559124TT-1.74655.25442333.6355902317612.1750112978880.265511535890811624151217.5WETL
2023-11-11 15:00:04FORECAST20245113138.40819.88629.14722.9091630210310.362204921.132204925.186.31220492TT6.40870.40842324.359301244927.43080010960760.610966737612731634142232WETL
2023-11-11 11:00:05FORECAST20245113143.91617.4230.66832.5636437849390.649606651.359606655.296.64960665TT11.91661.91642330.9855922453310.7780969238240.814731236205911644141218WETL
2023-11-11 07:00:09FORECAST20245113141.0921.14631.11831.8859252238540.653543661.333543665.416.74354366TT9.0963.0942330.5257287183410.5391186704730.719243904736831644141218WETL
2023-11-11 03:00:06FORECAST20245113137.20227.42832.31530.1493784899250.425197081.005197085.396.39519708TT5.20246.20242329.343781841489.92951033204220.55863287530361634142232WETL
2023-11-10 23:00:04FORECAST20245113132.16228.95830.5626.14413020457800.685.746.42TT0.16247.16242326.597726054628.53861347449110.339473853851624132221WETL
2023-11-10 19:00:04FORECAST20245113130.99229.73230.36225.13864774401400.715.696.4TT-1.00857.99242325.903954729578.19278471632770.293141176357041624132221WETL
2023-11-10 15:00:03FORECAST20245113129.82222.7326.27624.30027437797400.655.616.26TF-2.17857.82242325.324130620477.90546563585320.249973657378551624132221WETL
2023-11-10 11:00:04FORECAST20245113136.84232.10834.47544.5178087267662.066930253.996930255.439.42693025TT4.84270.84242338.9682643999915.0901243590030.542765708190021634151220WETL
2023-11-10 07:00:06FORECAST20245113138.42630.63234.52940.9562497868172.066930254.016930255.439.44693025TT6.42674.42642336.6152477092713.7864981672320.611735259457871634151220WETL
2023-11-10 03:00:09FORECAST20245113135.49234.50234.99733.9295419087060.027559072.287559078.5610.84755907TT3.49281.49242331.9100155670711.2615547831020.482862146767931624151217.5WETL