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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 23, 2023

[ Wednesday, November 22, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, November 24, 2023 ]

DAY 54 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/24/2023 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.70°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.73°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.21°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.385
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 118

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.51 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.43 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.94 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 23 in
SWE DAY: 39
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 321.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.43 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 134

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 21.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-24 07:00:03OBSERVATION20245413433.6999222.7328.2149623.11347083333300.511.431.94FF1.69992117.6999239321.36663684275 7.42789838747120.385326248006916 24132221DRYL
2023-11-24 03:00:03OBSERVATION20245413433.6999222.7328.2149623.11347083333300.511.431.94FF1.69992117.6999239321.36663684275 7.42789838747120.385326248006916 24132221DRYL
2023-11-23 11:00:01FORECAST20245413430.222.6426.422300.511.431.94FF-1.8114.239321.28692403937.38959925290380.243497774753311614132218DRYL
2023-11-23 07:00:04FORECAST20245413429.3921.9225.65523.47764333333300.511.431.94FF-2.61113.3939321.622311424597.55093391566880.215198234262221614132218DRYL
2023-11-23 03:00:05FORECAST20245413429.7521.14625.44823.47764333333300.511.431.94FF-2.25113.7539321.622311424597.55093391566880.227533931348311614132218DRYL
2023-11-22 23:00:02FORECAST20245413430.88421.32626.1052300.251.431.68FF-1.116114.88439321.28692403937.38959925290380.268875816618471624122214DRYL
2023-11-22 19:00:02FORECAST20245413431.26221.09226.1772300.251.431.68FF-0.738115.26239321.28692403937.38959925290380.283448373071481624122214DRYL
2023-11-22 15:00:01FORECAST20245413433.04422.67627.8622.985928800.251.431.68FF1.044117.04439321.277037476727.38485110851480.356753258670421624122214DRYL
2023-11-22 11:00:02FORECAST20245413433.2623.48628.37323.37514224029300.251.431.68FF1.26117.2639321.550372396987.51628569219870.366083123979181624122214DRYL
2023-11-22 07:00:05FORECAST20245413432.68422.62227.65323.04668013657500.261.431.69FF0.684115.68439321.319719428887.40535279525140.341394526925891624122214DRYL
2023-11-22 03:00:05FORECAST20245413431.65822.53227.09523.66704422034500.351.431.78FF-0.342113.65839321.755190647147.61499432517130.299109050981831624122214DRYL
2023-11-21 23:00:02FORECAST20245413432.19823.3627.77926.01363474828200.531.431.96FF0.198108.19839323.396212202468.41271094321270.321073679721981624132221DRYL
2023-11-21 19:00:02FORECAST20245413432.12622.9127.51825.55642862062400.521.431.95FF0.126107.12639323.077244802158.25670054573410.318106376986171624132221DRYL
2023-11-21 15:00:02FORECAST20245413432.923.9928.44525.92918668861700.521.431.95FF0.9109.939323.337325354028.38387387250240.350580197194661624132221DRYL
2023-11-21 11:00:03FORECAST20245413431.38822.5526.96925.59723537563100.481.431.91FF-0.612106.38839323.105728473078.27061338293990.288388566920531624122214DRYL
2023-11-21 07:00:06FORECAST20245413433.2624.47628.86824.73363942955700.41.431.83FF1.26110.2639322.502296394737.97665551423140.366083123979181624122214DRYL
2023-11-21 03:00:05FORECAST20245413432.64823.6328.13925.42013465058700.431.431.86FF0.648110.64839322.982088353878.21024817568340.339872492195271624122214DRYL
2023-11-20 23:00:02FORECAST20245413431.47822.62227.0525.18411903801200.361.431.79FF-0.52297.47839322.817231249488.12986757930840.291941917552481624122214DRYL
2023-11-20 19:00:03FORECAST20245413433.45823.9928.72424.25635088550200.441.431.87FF1.458103.45839322.168225747337.81462552788680.374705751748191624122214DRYL
2023-11-20 15:00:03FORECAST20245413433.58424.22428.90425.31907603506800.591.432.02FF1.584102.58439322.911510924278.17582109769010.380225978691831624132221DRYL
2023-11-20 11:00:03FORECAST20245413433.99823.19828.59823.91263593887200.51.431.93FF1.998103.99839321.927396881047.69813264036510.398530603392541624132221DRYL
2023-11-20 07:00:05FORECAST20245413434.21424.8929.55223.68482361869700.491.431.92FF2.214104.21439321.767660974537.62101029638250.408173040243451624122214DRYL
2023-11-20 03:00:04FORECAST20245413433.54823.57628.56225.23472205481500.61.432.03FF1.548101.54839322.852585822998.14709526792150.378646225100581624132221DRYL
2023-11-19 23:00:03FORECAST20245413435.72625.7930.75818.13895303192900.511.662.17FF3.726101.72639317.850394126355.7654733702380.47690961909181624132221DRYL
2023-11-19 19:00:03FORECAST20245413435.36627.17631.27118.20130059938400.441.662.1FF3.366101.36639317.894740060585.78609772280560.46040246458331624122214DRYL
2023-11-19 15:00:02FORECAST20245413434.21424.15229.18317.58276922838800.391.662.05FF2.21498.21439317.454486541885.58172897738220.408173040243451624122214DRYL
2023-11-19 11:00:03FORECAST20245413432.16224.87228.51721.9793469082100.261.661.92FF0.16290.16239320.568885681337.04589474636810.319588585736751624122214DRYL
2023-11-19 07:00:06FORECAST20245413433.4425.46629.45320.48151392081600.261.481.74FF1.4496.4439319.511771005946.54408478572260.373919209076031624122214DRYL
2023-11-19 03:00:05FORECAST20245413434.84426.20430.52419.85674846287600.271.441.71FF2.844100.84439319.069644825356.3356856794360.436595267875581624122214DRYL
2023-11-18 23:00:04FORECAST20245413433.65622.6428.14820.6577572174800.111.621.73FF1.65688.65639319.636365826376.60297044311860.383391460631021624122214DRYL
2023-11-18 19:00:02FORECAST20245413433.20623.68428.44520.22270001423800.131.481.61FF1.20686.20639319.328701946366.45768854539720.363742974081111624122214DRYL
2023-11-18 15:00:03FORECAST20245413430.05623.37826.71720.69859935657400.171.541.71FF-1.94483.05639319.665231129526.61662254737660.238324598820971614122212DRYL
2023-11-18 11:00:03FORECAST20245413431.38822.74827.06821.38780107308400.141.631.77FF-0.61286.38839320.151875148426.84734461884930.288388566920531624122214DRYL
2023-11-18 07:00:05FORECAST20245413434.98824.1729.57920.7266546658600.131.621.75FF2.98896.98839319.685057567836.6260017900440.443143605448891624122214DRYL
2023-11-18 03:00:04FORECAST20245413431.98225.0728.52622.02920590378800.061.731.79FF-0.01800000000000188.98239320.604005182527.06265164374470.3122067888826162411227DRYL
2023-11-17 23:00:03FORECAST20245413428.50824.47626.49225.05956485247700.161.92.06FF-3.49267.50839322.730190197778.08747813111330.186665756692951614122212DRYL
2023-11-17 19:00:03FORECAST20245413427.64423.37825.51125.23385109167400.151.872.02FF-4.35663.64439322.851977349678.14679872109420.161103902861591614122212DRYL
2023-11-17 15:00:03FORECAST20245413430.70425.66428.18423.93620638068800.261.581.84FF-1.29674.70439321.943918568777.70611607786960.262071034836561624122214DRYL
2023-11-17 11:00:04FORECAST20245413432.19825.03428.61623.1227470771710.047244120.277244121.71.97724412FF0.19881.19839321.373152350897.43103011920280.321073679721981624122214DRYL
2023-11-17 07:00:07FORECAST20245413431.92823.91827.92324.2553970799980.035433090.205433091.982.18543309FF-0.07199999999999980.92839322.167557740547.81430203928980.310006681654711624122214DRYL
2023-11-17 03:00:08FORECAST20245413430.72224.02627.37425.3997707517730.031496080.151496081.942.09149608FF-1.27866.72239322.967868048758.20330980862720.262747524968131624122214DRYL
2023-11-16 23:00:04FORECAST20245413434.64624.11629.38123.82363496003300.081.631.71FF2.64672.64639321.865002776027.66799433254590.42761995482586162411227DRYL
2023-11-16 19:00:03FORECAST20245413436.08626.25831.17223.2801807568900.131.81.93FF4.08685.08639321.483708228277.48419883794940.493456495082561624122214DRYL
2023-11-16 15:00:03FORECAST20245413437.1327.2332.1824.48252357816600.1322.13FF5.1379.1339322.326582271267.89136815032590.541404112058011634122216DRYL
2023-11-16 11:00:04FORECAST20245413435.25828.18431.72123.54692670643800.291.912.2FF3.25883.25839321.670926430297.57436172824610.455462294751151624122214DRYL
2023-11-16 03:00:07FORECAST20245413431.8226.7829.324.3676865532430.125984320.445984321.752.19598432FF-0.1872.8239322.246189627277.85239414181410.305626859348671624122214DRYL
2023-11-15 23:00:03FORECAST2024541343228.36430.18223.4120460952880.137795350.207795351.791.99779535FF06939321.576275034087.52875857424890.3129416526521624122214DRYL
2023-11-15 19:00:03FORECAST20245413430.52426.90628.71525.0996394691120.125984320.215984321.822.03598432FF-1.47663.52439322.758198176878.10111440993970.255355509788911624122214DRYL
2023-11-15 15:00:05FORECAST20245413434.41226.38430.39824.7709303736020.007874020.277874021.832.10787402FF2.41271.41239322.528380553887.9893280582110.417061204282451624122214DRYL
2023-11-15 11:00:05FORECAST20245413431.02822.15426.59126.23240690778100.421.952.37FF-0.97256.02839323.548706447028.48746132200420.274382717540421624122214DRYL
2023-11-15 07:00:05FORECAST20245413431.06422.08226.57325.81126081450400.461.962.42FF-0.93661.06439323.255072805758.34362099380090.275768080318411624122214DRYL
2023-11-15 03:00:08FORECAST20245413433.33223.73828.53527.40782432855700.512.072.58FF1.33259.33239324.366577254458.89018216744530.369211071972161624132221DRYL
2023-11-14 23:00:04FORECAST20245413433.58424.78229.18327.65365792546900.261.631.89FF1.58456.58439324.537322951798.97464411295630.380225978691831624122214DRYL
2023-11-14 19:00:05FORECAST20245413431.47821.48826.48328.04021385562700.241.641.88FF-0.52256.47839324.805592937829.10761828748030.291941917552481624122214DRYL
2023-11-14 15:00:06FORECAST20245413437.86827.1432.50424.6913487029600.181.61.78FF5.86884.86839322.472712012577.96228617949150.574978741357461634122216DRYL
2023-11-14 11:00:05FORECAST20245413439.34429.08434.21426.5460208370490.125984320.565984321.962.52598432FF7.34495.34439323.767162010288.5947298290770.640295980437721634132224DRYL
2023-11-14 07:00:07FORECAST20245413438.26426.88832.57626.9509062432660.133858340.573858341.922.49385834FF6.26488.26439324.048937754188.73341253964290.592788365722131634132224DRYL
2023-11-14 03:00:07FORECAST20245413443.19626.00634.60128.3398674823450.110236280.630236281.912.54023628FF11.19686.19639325.013371528519.21083587910820.789141891761811644132227DRYL
2023-11-13 23:00:04FORECAST20245413428.36424.51226.43826.81403848242500.091.831.92FF-3.63651.36439323.953718494448.68650747423440.18223983313038161411226DRYL
2023-11-13 19:00:04FORECAST20245413427.82423.95425.88931.05187263380400.092.282.37FF-4.17639.82439326.8866896047210.1504438512920.16623210064773161411123DRYL
2023-11-13 15:00:03FORECAST20245413426.25824.18825.22346.00404816433900.274.564.83TF-5.74218.25839336.9863760899315.5027374763670.12509431033356161412126WETL
2023-11-13 11:00:09FORECAST20245413438.98433.6236.30237.5011865347200.462.63.06FF6.98436.98439331.2900635074412.4237704686920.62465931435705163412128DRYL
2023-11-13 07:00:09FORECAST20245413434.6132.93633.77338.62557577329700.532.793.32FF2.6139.6139332.050401539912.8256379452330.425991954829991624131210.5DRYL
2023-11-13 03:00:09FORECAST20245413426.79826.43826.61838.06424305213300.82.092.89FF-5.20218.79839331.6710867940512.6248088610940.13839472786817161413129DRYL