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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 18, 2023
[ Friday, November 17, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, November 19, 2023 ]

DAY 49 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/19/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
 LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.08°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.39°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.883
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:

Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)		 TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 132

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.28 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.32 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 19 in
SWE DAY: 44
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 323.45 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.02 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 129

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
 You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-19 07:00:04OBSERVATION20244912946.7099632.0799239.3949418.6105270833330.280000000000090.320000000000096.476.7900000000001TT14.70996131.7099644323.45003890999 6.01957570923950.8829484537212316 54122220WETL
2023-11-19 03:00:04OBSERVATION20244912946.7099632.0799239.3949418.6105270833330.280000000000090.320000000000096.476.7900000000001TT14.70996131.7099644323.45003890999 6.01957570923950.8829484537212316 54122220WETL
2023-11-18 11:00:02FORECAST20244912939.57830.1134.84419.6801140246030.326771830.366771836.476.83677183TT7.578124.57844324.194639165146.38018746493510.651193723181661634122216WETL
2023-11-18 07:00:04FORECAST20244912940.78431.58636.18519.6726056054530.358267910.398267916.476.86826791TT8.784125.78444324.189419175156.37765058489350.699857462614261644122218WETL
2023-11-18 03:00:03FORECAST20244912939.61429.49834.55620.003987644780.417323060.457323066.476.92732306TT7.614124.61444324.419707280586.48968781616370.652688224504731634122216WETL
2023-11-17 23:00:02FORECAST20244912938.15629.5733.86322.3268276982630.476378210.486378216.476.95637821TT6.156113.15644326.02849416497.27918201394390.590505749451061634122216WETL
2023-11-17 19:00:02FORECAST20244912937.83228.92233.37722.3195046675680.456693160.466693166.476.93669316TT5.832112.83244326.023437172487.27668162770770.576308769643591634122216WETL
2023-11-17 15:00:01FORECAST20244912939.97430.77635.37521.9513697825070.425197080.435197086.476.90519708TT7.974114.97444325.769096670967.15107790473760.667499590436881634122216WETL
2023-11-17 11:00:02FORECAST20244912941.05432.12636.5921.156124919010.468504190.478504196.476.94850419TT9.054116.05444325.218857952616.88037078486320.710318437286351644122218WETL
2023-11-17 07:00:05FORECAST20244912941.12630.59635.86121.6442778561380.547244390.557244396.477.02724439TT9.126117.12644325.556748087897.04644071355510.713078884600491644132227WETL
2023-11-17 03:00:06FORECAST20244912938.82230.21834.5221.9715098687140.480315220.490315226.476.96031522TT6.822112.82244325.783017394127.15794478173430.619299517942841634132224WETL
2023-11-16 23:00:02FORECAST20244912939.75831.40635.58222.397105943220.527559340.527559346.476.99755934TT7.758111.75844326.077020730427.30318157894860.658642335278031634132224WETL
2023-11-16 19:00:02FORECAST20244912940.7331.78436.25722.0836211084350.566929440.566929446.477.03692944TT8.73114.7344325.860495087797.19617970772570.697744957518541634132224WETL
2023-11-16 15:00:02FORECAST20244912939.9230.00234.96121.9272274346590.555118410.555118416.477.02511841TT7.92111.9244325.752408666827.14284715222550.665293782678821634132224WETL
2023-11-16 11:00:02FORECAST20244912941.0930.235.64522.3363798353410.724409840.724409846.477.19440984TT9.09115.0944326.035090347777.28244361765740.711700217287471644132227WETL
2023-11-16 03:00:06FORECAST20244912940.31628.23834.27721.6396993113310.728346850.728346856.477.19834685TT8.316113.31644325.553580852597.04488159937730.68133278125771634132224WETL
2023-11-15 23:00:02FORECAST20244912938.8427.01432.92722.6345858189590.779527980.779527986.647.41952798TT6.84107.8444326.240934606967.38432843201850.620069411531011634132224WETL
2023-11-15 19:00:02FORECAST20244912939.36226.47432.91823.4585986243080.783464990.783464996.647.42346499TT7.362109.36244326.808920397987.66647929045970.642178132487711634132224WETL
2023-11-15 15:00:03FORECAST20244912938.62427.57233.09823.084332801740.673228710.673228716.647.31322871TT6.624107.62444326.551089145897.53821401861440.610800131248391634132224WETL
2023-11-15 11:00:03FORECAST20244912937.54426.56432.05423.731075476950.799213030.799213036.647.43921303TT5.544102.54444326.996475240117.75997803461970.563604928479651634132224WETL
2023-11-15 07:00:04FORECAST20244912938.15626.92432.5423.6088291781980.755905920.755905926.657.40590592TT6.156106.15644326.912345118167.71801771213870.590505749451061634132224WETL
2023-11-15 03:00:06FORECAST20244912937.97626.13232.05424.6259307039890.830709110.830709116.727.55070911TT5.976101.97644327.611521361528.06773862287730.582631929263651634132224WETL
2023-11-14 23:00:02FORECAST20244912938.19230.72234.45724.922907385420.263779670.263779676.596.85377967TT6.19296.19244327.815328697368.17011107664530.592076250795171634122216WETL
2023-11-14 19:00:03FORECAST20244912938.69629.82234.25925.3417714968860.279527710.279527716.616.88952771TT6.69697.69644328.102522985838.31469916505860.613897191719741634122216WETL
2023-11-14 15:00:04FORECAST20244912940.08232.0936.08624.4467652712190.307086780.307086786.616.91708678TT8.082104.08244327.488490434468.00603425467710.671893796980151634122216WETL
2023-11-14 11:00:04FORECAST20244912942.18832.97237.5824.1917407468450.437008110.437008116.556.98700811TT10.188108.18844327.313271311227.9182778025630.752281116533311644122218WETL
2023-11-14 07:00:06FORECAST20244912941.48631.20836.34723.3902747305150.43307110.43307116.546.9730711TT9.486111.48644326.761870440267.64304992105450.72669103643821644122218WETL
2023-11-14 03:00:06FORECAST20244912939.43430.63235.03323.6162573603550.55118140.55118146.497.0411814TT7.434103.43444326.917457951917.72056682258540.645192443448311634132224WETL
2023-11-13 23:00:02FORECAST20244912939.57828.95834.26824.3595608227070.712598810.712598816.77.41259881TT7.57898.57844327.428587840657.97601660059730.651193723181661634132224WETL
2023-11-13 19:00:03FORECAST20244912938.06628.61633.34125.2046079829960.688976750.688976756.687.36897675TT6.06692.06644328.008510430258.26732592048090.586573190573121634132224WETL
2023-11-13 15:00:02FORECAST20244912938.10225.5231.81124.9352296388830.677165720.677165726.687.35716572TT6.10288.10244327.823781816588.17436128068360.588147279835191634132224WETL
2023-11-13 11:00:06FORECAST20244912934.0722.35228.21127.2927645348220.625984590.625984596.687.30598459TT2.0783.0744329.436203133928.99122472137970.409033455960741624132221WETL
2023-11-13 07:00:08FORECAST20244912936.73422.44229.58827.2432062539060.681102730.681102736.677.35110273TT4.73491.73444329.402407312068.97397772293550.527564264952621634132224WETL
2023-11-13 03:00:07FORECAST20244912935.625.1630.3825.4898784752210.507874290.507874296.587.08787429TT3.691.644328.20399947568.36588006171450.476792531973241624132221WETL
2023-11-12 23:00:04FORECAST20244912936.69825.68231.1924.4548715654330.574803460.574803467.017.58480346TT4.69888.69844327.494058146698.00882513041970.525954981372931634132224WETL
2023-11-12 19:00:04FORECAST20244912936.4124.78230.59625.7572962519010.59055150.59055157.077.6605515TT4.4186.4144328.387125897358.45836448704850.51306766514911634132224WETL
2023-11-12 15:00:03FORECAST20244912937.00428.4932.74725.5660866458760.704724790.704724797.057.75472479TT5.00488.00444328.256199141968.39222642930940.539617749004451634132224WETL
2023-11-12 11:00:04FORECAST20244912936.69828.68832.69325.09586397750.598425520.598425526.957.54842552TT4.69893.69844327.933953466728.22978588980450.525954981372931634132224WETL
2023-11-12 07:00:07FORECAST20244912935.97828.32832.15326.2441789921720.673228710.673228717.147.81322871TT3.97886.97844328.720221651488.62699233536790.493715289201951624132221WETL
2023-11-12 03:00:07FORECAST20244912936.12227.84231.98227.4362986706930.751968910.751968917.258.00196891TT4.12287.12244329.5340609419.04119491814360.500166687093561634132224WETL
2023-11-11 23:00:03FORECAST20244912936.89628.38232.63919.3716232857570.767716950.767716958.369.12771695TT4.89684.89644323.980088773646.27602023180910.534800096927361634132224WETL
2023-11-11 19:00:04FORECAST20244912937.36428.5832.97223.0262724339950.70866180.70866188.649.3486618TT5.36487.36444326.511069466467.51833283824990.555630712527161634132224WETL
2023-11-11 15:00:04FORECAST20244912939.52431.49635.5118.987874150220.559055420.559055428.539.08905542TT7.52490.52444323.71296262386.14662099509560.648947574664631634132224WETL
2023-11-11 11:00:04FORECAST20244912936.28426.11431.19926.7633386028630.578740470.578740478.649.21874047TT4.28483.28444329.074945781958.8071441996810.507424373589091634132224WETL
2023-11-11 07:00:08FORECAST20244912937.47226.47431.97326.4250745072730.55118140.55118148.769.3111814TT5.47286.47244328.843874514868.68972388531550.560418156275391634132224WETL
2023-11-11 03:00:06FORECAST20244912935.27624.51229.89427.6292756687270.582677480.582677488.749.32267748TT3.27673.27644329.665571379059.10842095012030.462319397199711624132221WETL
2023-11-10 23:00:04FORECAST20244912933.51224.58429.04826.1450158045780.677165720.677165729.099.76716572TT1.51276.51244328.652413591148.5926225475530.384876339459771624132221WETL
2023-11-10 19:00:04FORECAST20244912935.40229.0332.21625.1475037440140.712598810.712598819.049.75259881TT3.40283.40244327.96936124298.24761073977780.467942974041611624132221WETL
2023-11-10 15:00:03FORECAST20244912934.89827.6831.28924.1951259797380.633858610.633858618.969.59385861TT2.89881.89844327.315597938927.91944212726550.445498243299831624132221WETL
2023-11-10 11:00:04FORECAST20244912931.60421.8326.71725.1425832571060.700787780.700787788.789.48078778TT-0.39686.60444327.965987618788.24591214920430.306083736120811624132221WETL
2023-11-10 07:00:06FORECAST20244912933.06224.4428.75124.4420120554810.724409840.724409848.789.50440984TT1.06289.06244327.485225691188.00439783433570.365710415735161624132221WETL
2023-11-10 03:00:08FORECAST20244912932.21627.89630.05632.8980311079311.145669913.695669919.3613.05566991TT0.21693.21644333.2313429213610.9626550855640.330603186972621624151217.5WETL
2023-11-09 23:00:03FORECAST20244912930.7427.03228.88641.218641942211.098425793.258425799.5712.82842579TT-1.2682.7444338.7662490133813.9634847201880.272914579737551624151217.5WETL
2023-11-09 19:00:04FORECAST20244912930.57825.30427.94138.2509359542041.043307653.143307659.612.74330765TT-1.42283.57844336.8055250827212.8831265689610.266899449655871624151217.5WETL
2023-11-09 15:00:05FORECAST20244912938.91228.90433.90824.6982384432821.503937821.523937828.8810.40393782TT6.91293.91244327.661158433248.09265341958590.623144203413871634152240WETL
2023-11-09 11:00:04FORECAST20244912945.8631.5538.70532.935971029162.035434172.055434179.5911.64543417TT13.8698.8644333.2568471227810.9761378621050.863085656342321654151225WETL
2023-11-09 07:00:06FORECAST20244912939.93828.16634.05244.0229002157432.12598542.14598549.7111.8559854TT7.93879.93844340.6054531127514.9944398753210.666029690223821634151220WETL
2023-11-09 03:00:06FORECAST20244912936.21228.68832.4536.4084914000010.874016220.894016229.8310.72401622TT4.21280.21244335.5807892355512.2179902788880.50419889573791634131212WETL
2023-11-08 23:00:04FORECAST20244912934.2532.16233.20627.6571647369150.098425250.128425259.379.49842525TT2.2596.2544329.684571959079.11814051789110.416905228928681624122214WETL
2023-11-08 19:00:04FORECAST20244912934.08832.32433.20628.1119393765370.098425250.138425259.119.24842525TT2.08881.08844329.994216124939.27677739831210.409819040408831624122214WETL
2023-11-08 15:00:04FORECAST20244912933.9832.34233.16128.1574584714560.11811030.11811039.059.1681103TT1.9881.9844330.025189199539.29267055942040.40511107154321624122214WETL
2023-11-08 11:00:07FORECAST20244912941.3640.38840.87423.0868578025290.122047310.532047318.669.19204731TT9.36111.3644326.552829437097.53907873822750.721963298699731644132227WETM
2023-11-08 07:00:09FORECAST20244912934.41233.58433.99824.5311864339220.122047310.532047318.448.97204731TT2.41295.41244327.546468491418.03510348433540.424018513894321624132221WETL
2023-11-08 03:00:09FORECAST20244912935.22234.82635.02426.03374209150400.1799.17TT3.22284.22244328.576303982188.55407075525160.459911530451181624122214WETL

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