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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 17, 2023

[ Thursday, November 16, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, November 18, 2023 ]

DAY 48 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/18/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.95°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.99°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.97°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.964
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 136

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.05 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.46 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.51 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 19 in
SWE DAY: 45
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 324.76 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.17 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 128

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-18 07:00:04OBSERVATION20244812850.9500434.9899842.9700118.9976654166670.0299999999999730.0499999999999736.466.51TF18.95004135.9500445324.75968927452 6.1696759176580.9644666243788616 54112210WETL
2023-11-18 03:00:03OBSERVATION20244812850.9500434.9899842.9700118.9976654166670.0299999999999730.0499999999999736.466.51TF18.95004135.9500445324.75968927452 6.1696759176580.9644666243788616 54112210WETL
2023-11-17 11:00:02FORECAST20244812841.2729.85835.56420.564776800.026.466.48TF9.27126.2745325.84475319066.70092462081570.73607069633632164411229WETL
2023-11-17 07:00:05FORECAST20244812842.09830.18236.1420.57799866666700.026.466.48TF10.098127.09845325.853889615816.70542090604220.76777008011289164411229WETL
2023-11-17 03:00:06FORECAST20244812840.3729.80435.08720.67984266666700.026.466.48TF8.37125.3745325.924254425036.74006230276020.69927838301068164411229WETL
2023-11-16 23:00:02FORECAST20244812842.3532.25237.30121.499439200.016.466.47TF10.35123.3545326.489857851857.01934884830260.77698025566069164411229WETL
2023-11-16 19:00:02FORECAST20244812843.68232.52238.10221.367386400.016.466.47TF11.682124.68245326.398807791156.97428944657290.82208339623223164411229WETL
2023-11-16 15:00:02FORECAST20244812842.40431.62237.01321.446401600.016.466.47TF10.404123.40445326.453292234847.00124840891060.77892649585879164411229WETL
2023-11-16 11:00:02FORECAST20244812843.98830.81237.421.130242400.016.466.47TF11.988124.98845326.235220936216.89342929779980.8315721467629164411229WETL
2023-11-16 03:00:06FORECAST20244812843.17833.51238.34521.086495800.016.466.47TF11.178124.17845326.205032856576.8785210552690.80573771942667164411229WETL
2023-11-15 23:00:02FORECAST20244812842.13433.40437.76922.174128800.186.466.64TT10.134120.13445326.954578244387.24993292974050.769098617224181644122218WETL
2023-11-15 19:00:02FORECAST20244812842.58433.51238.04822.1463800.186.466.64TT10.584120.58445326.935480809167.24043739348240.785343447917541644122218WETL
2023-11-15 15:00:02FORECAST20244812842.831.76637.28322.271151200.186.466.64TT10.8119.845327.021340966367.28314173028860.792899309152881644122218WETL
2023-11-15 11:00:03FORECAST20244812840.3731.96436.16722.77662078314600.186.466.64TT8.37116.3745327.368896950397.45635722203610.699278383010681644122218WETL
2023-11-15 07:00:04FORECAST20244812841.01830.77635.89722.77127676514500.196.466.65TT9.018119.01845327.365224788847.45452413695050.7260036915331644122218WETL
2023-11-15 03:00:06FORECAST20244812839.84831.06435.45623.4134885452400.266.466.72TT7.848114.84845327.806166228977.67508591806120.676932091440391634122216WETL
2023-11-14 23:00:02FORECAST20244812840.76632.32436.54524.88909445572800.156.446.59TF8.766108.76645328.816593711358.18394725949240.715750723385331644122218WETL
2023-11-14 19:00:03FORECAST20244812840.87431.80236.33824.99065723795500.176.446.61TF8.874109.87445328.886000061478.2190772978980.720167233048021644122218WETL
2023-11-14 15:00:03FORECAST20244812843.0735.11439.09224.41980593168300.176.446.61TF11.07115.0745328.495656975568.02180019274390.802119886241411644122218WETL
2023-11-14 11:00:04FORECAST20244812843.32234.50238.91224.06755099742600.116.446.55TF11.322117.32245328.254505626067.90028205429020.810498495453521644122218WETL
2023-11-14 07:00:06FORECAST20244812844.99636.37440.68523.37931344880200.16.446.54TF12.996120.99645327.7827197857.66333494895420.860486953384141654122220WETL
2023-11-14 03:00:05FORECAST20244812843.71834.7939.25423.62629944792500.056.446.49TF11.718114.71845327.952123215587.74829506767410.82321685864079164411229WETL
2023-11-13 23:00:02FORECAST20244812842.92634.64638.78622.96245129880300.026.686.7TF10.926109.92645327.496560072257.52012381118450.79723342150709164411229WETL
2023-11-13 19:00:02FORECAST20244812841.14433.11637.1323.2537344006.686.68TF9.144105.14445327.696546521727.62016845661340.73106081228934164411229WETL
2023-11-13 15:00:02FORECAST20244812839.86632.1836.02323.3917896006.686.68TF7.866100.86645327.791279510417.66762464302230.67771400054567163411228WETL
2023-11-13 11:00:05FORECAST20244812840.33431.42435.87924.34058704921006.686.68TF8.334100.33445328.441443067497.99445753555230.69775979257041163411228WETL
2023-11-13 07:00:07FORECAST20244812842.27834.98838.63324.134163656043006.676.67TF10.278106.27845328.300124746957.92324893894210.7743701802961164411229WETL
2023-11-13 03:00:07FORECAST20244812842.02632.3637.19324.126179541779006.586.58TF10.026107.02645328.294657300347.92049584463470.76510031086596164411229WETL
2023-11-12 23:00:04FORECAST20244812841.68430.27235.97822.60761767871400.096.927.01TT9.684102.68445327.252741706827.39840486881850.75219055755857164411229WETL
2023-11-12 19:00:03FORECAST20244812840.13629.67834.90722.91841340745500.166.917.07TT8.136101.13645327.46631206747.50500831697530.689346831967571634122216WETL
2023-11-12 15:00:02FORECAST20244812840.4632.3636.4122.72740143192800.156.97.05TT8.46102.4645327.335073808157.43947562518760.703059722089271644122218WETL
2023-11-12 11:00:04FORECAST20244812840.65832.43236.54522.8405462260800.036.926.95TT8.658107.65845327.412819688717.47828764311110.71130119969223164411229WETL
2023-11-12 07:00:06FORECAST20244812840.26230.6535.45623.82455771373400.196.957.14TT8.262102.26245328.088028264147.81655216456440.694712347302741634122216WETL
2023-11-12 03:00:06FORECAST20244812841.41431.6436.52723.97989994702500.167.097.25TT9.414102.41445328.194466777497.87007047649150.741737527828751644122218WETL
2023-11-11 23:00:03FORECAST20244812841.3630.00235.68118.19023557001200.018.358.36TT9.3699.3645324.198938693715.89725506638660.73961987009051164411229WETL
2023-11-11 19:00:03FORECAST20244812841.6330.00235.81619.40289617024200.148.58.64TT9.63100.6345325.040684166676.30673064599010.750118153322331644122218WETL
2023-11-11 15:00:03FORECAST20244812842.6233.47638.04818.61216174489300.078.468.53TT10.62101.6245324.492104943936.03949954215730.78661374840873164411229WETL
2023-11-11 11:00:04FORECAST20244812840.35232.95436.65323.71028607243400.138.518.64TT8.35298.35245328.009703981487.77720391593530.698519517670721634122216WETL
2023-11-11 07:00:07FORECAST20244812840.98232.23436.60823.60139610288500.048.728.76TT8.98299.98245327.935047258527.73972494636670.72455022642295164411229WETL
2023-11-11 03:00:06FORECAST20244812838.60633.18835.89724.42588383732600.258.498.74TT6.60688.60645328.499815975478.02389834559990.621261219003091634122216WETL
2023-11-10 23:00:04FORECAST20244812839.61432.70236.15821.77290390447700.158.949.09TT7.61493.61445326.678313972997.11273553781040.666697184390231634122216WETL
2023-11-10 19:00:03FORECAST20244812839.3831.08235.23121.29025975926400.178.879.04TT7.3899.3845326.345615044786.94798291560020.656336708772281634122216WETL
2023-11-10 15:00:03FORECAST20244812839.45234.46636.95920.72159112204900.188.788.96TT7.45298.45245325.953093496826.7542667284080.659537515131041634122216WETL
2023-11-10 11:00:04FORECAST20244812840.08232.01836.0520.845349119191008.788.78TT8.082106.08245326.038565297666.79638771994990.68703485845155163411228WETL
2023-11-10 07:00:05FORECAST20244812840.11833.36836.74320.339561777656008.788.78TT8.118107.11845325.68908051056.62437317335130.68857699793358163411228WETL
2023-11-10 03:00:08FORECAST20244812839.50629.15634.33125.5234306662062.208662612.618662619.2911.90866261TT7.506111.50645329.249795571748.40358432913770.661930621051681634152240WETL
2023-11-09 23:00:03FORECAST20244812839.66830.79435.23132.7804699916131.846457692.266457699.4611.72645769TT7.668102.66845334.1564318756710.9538048876050.6690704751151634151220WETL
2023-11-09 19:00:04FORECAST20244812839.72229.06634.39430.0806234591141.787402542.227402549.4711.69740254TT7.722103.72245332.341565584179.99704149415010.671436995420621634152240WETL
2023-11-09 15:00:04FORECAST20244812839.25430.86635.0623.2914966559990.019685050.139685058.768.89968505TT7.254106.25445327.722462148487.63314663122690.650708372162921634122216WETL
2023-11-09 11:00:04FORECAST20244812836.3228.23832.27927.8680824300460.015748040.695748048.919.60574804TT4.32104.3245330.844964496439.22001474215240.512797378276261634132224WETL
2023-11-09 07:00:06FORECAST20244812833.33225.5229.42629.4064836449210.015748040.655748049.079.72574804TT1.33291.33245331.88645632559.75961364990670.370850486720461624132221WETL
2023-11-09 03:00:06FORECAST20244812836.48228.59832.5430.0074334778230.015748040.8457480499.84574804TT4.48295.48245332.292193004289.97123587677570.520613416109721634132224WETL
2023-11-08 23:00:04FORECAST20244812838.40831.83835.12326.9694975416920.031496080.331496089.079.40149608TT6.408113.40845330.234740459038.9062650209910.612111905773361634122216WETL
2023-11-08 19:00:04FORECAST20244812837.97629.85833.91727.410389617230.035433090.315433098.839.14543309TT5.97697.97645330.534321871469.06007454436370.591939003214661634122216WETL
2023-11-08 15:00:04FORECAST20244812839.4729.0334.2527.2606568959500.298.769.05TT7.4799.4745330.432617720549.00781021891030.660335936523111634122216WETL
2023-11-08 11:00:06FORECAST20244812843.28630.66836.97723.2286417555890.318897810.518897818.559.06889781TT11.286121.28645327.67932447027.61154563883170.809315068547111644132227WETL
2023-11-08 07:00:08FORECAST20244812838.13833.76435.95123.6728595823630.318897810.518897818.338.84889781TT6.138112.13845327.984046103877.76432026867220.599535558106821634132224WETL
2023-11-08 03:00:09FORECAST20244812838.49831.71235.10526.0668044915040.07874020.25874028.919.1687402TT6.498100.49845329.620322640538.59214850669690.616278741255391634122216WETL
2023-11-07 23:00:05FORECAST20244812830.3827.89629.13813.09013482187600.079.819.88TT-1.6277.3845320.630280354094.19709359781090.24605550596774161411329WETL
2023-11-07 19:00:05FORECAST20244812829.3925.5227.45513.32666725441100.039.949.97TT-2.6179.3945320.796811858044.27515236790790.20988450569525161411329WETL
2023-11-07 15:00:05FORECAST20244812832.50428.77830.64115.28702129168800.379.9210.29TT0.50494.50445322.17316208274.92506798836880.33365982356781624123221WETL
2023-11-07 11:00:06FORECAST20244812837.23834.98836.11310.76815531972100.088.969.04TT5.238100.23845318.990159434623.43493558225440.556935377959611634113212WETH
2023-11-07 07:00:08FORECAST20244812835.47433.13434.30410.58664074723600.0799.07TT3.47495.47445318.861539237723.37567256402030.471969112710151624113210.5WETH
2023-11-07 03:00:08FORECAST20244812829.94829.7529.84917.44029713489500.459.7810.23TT-2.05297.94845323.677084103975.64502452252970.229875050710171614122212WETL