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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 16, 2023

[ Wednesday, November 15, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, November 17, 2023 ]

DAY 47 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/17/2023 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.31°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.92°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.12°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.755
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 136

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.44 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 21 in
SWE DAY: 46
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 327.21 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.89 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 127

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-17 07:00:05OBSERVATION20244712742.3100425.9199634.11521.0498266666670.00999999999999090.0399999999999916.446.48TF10.31004136.3100446327.21030382085 6.88772017897630.7550895260129116 4411229WETL
2023-11-17 03:00:05OBSERVATION20244712742.3100425.9199634.11521.0498266666670.00999999999999090.0399999999999916.446.48TF10.31004136.3100446327.21030382085 6.88772017897630.7550895260129116 4411229WETL
2023-11-16 11:00:02FORECAST20244712737.9424.81831.37921.819632800.036.446.47TF5.94131.9446327.739068318187.15114612491670.56136177140831163411228WETL
2023-11-16 03:00:05FORECAST20244712737.88625.5231.70321.741741400.036.446.47TF5.886131.88646327.685613268957.1244558641940.55874876683653163411228WETL
2023-11-15 23:00:01FORECAST20244712737.88624.92631.40622.806250400.26.446.64TT5.886128.88646328.415246356567.48992034358530.558748766836531634122216WETL
2023-11-15 19:00:02FORECAST20244712738.325.9732.13522.773286400.26.446.64TT6.3129.346328.392681841567.47858059524190.57870815662351634122216WETL
2023-11-15 15:00:02FORECAST20244712737.38224.76431.07322.844626400.26.446.64TT5.382128.38246328.44151311357.50312366132860.534252422060821634122216WETL
2023-11-15 11:00:03FORECAST20244712736.33823.61229.97523.20908878314600.26.446.64TT4.338127.33846328.690844693297.6286149966940.483201349064581624122214WETL
2023-11-15 07:00:04FORECAST20244712736.71623.64830.18223.23021436514500.216.446.65TT4.716128.71646328.705289793957.63589434487060.501697460442351634122216WETL
2023-11-15 03:00:06FORECAST20244712735.1523.88229.51623.8106309452400.286.446.72TT3.15126.1546329.101859884417.83612292909980.425488677691011624122214WETL
2023-11-14 23:00:02FORECAST20244712736.1423.75629.94825.35147605572800.156.446.59TF4.14119.1446330.151811723248.36983574965690.473524801068631624122214WETL
2023-11-14 19:00:02FORECAST20244712736.0522.4629.25525.39429403795500.176.446.61TF4.05120.0546330.180929810218.38471161732580.469131185092821624122214WETL
2023-11-14 15:00:02FORECAST20244712738.13825.93432.03625.16922033168300.176.446.61TF6.138123.13846330.027834483718.30654328170860.57091908263311634122216WETL
2023-11-14 11:00:03FORECAST20244712738.9325.2532.0924.79138139742600.116.446.55TF6.93124.9346329.770631247898.17546949293660.608680730619261634122216WETL
2023-11-14 07:00:05FORECAST20244712740.38826.31233.3524.27819744880200.16.446.54TF8.388127.38846329.420900154387.997745657710.675359704333491634122216WETL
2023-11-14 03:00:05FORECAST20244712738.31824.78231.5524.37177784792500.056.446.49TF6.318122.31846329.48470849928.03012811983060.57957176953566163411228WETL
2023-11-13 23:00:02FORECAST20244712737.3462330.17323.71442409880300.026.686.7TF5.346118.34646329.036166895867.80290320561290.53249658481622163411228WETL
2023-11-13 19:00:02FORECAST20244712736.12220.4828.30123.7847992006.686.68TF4.122115.12246329.084222752117.8272021580470.47264580296689162411227WETL
2023-11-13 15:00:02FORECAST20244712735.29420.24627.7723.8132368006.686.68TF3.294112.29446329.103639018767.83702288769540.43242456846452162411227WETL
2023-11-13 11:00:04FORECAST20244712735.40219.52627.46424.71942704921006.686.68TF3.402111.40246329.721622361638.15052959051530.43764030733302162411227WETL
2023-11-13 07:00:07FORECAST20244712736.03223.05429.54324.887809256043006.676.67TF4.032115.03246329.836295263928.20890280224810.46825289556692162411227WETL
2023-11-13 03:00:07FORECAST20244712736.5921.81229.20124.673578741779006.586.58TF4.59115.5946329.690389910338.13464179586020.49553053113109162411227WETL
2023-11-12 23:00:04FORECAST20244712734.93420.17427.55423.07334487871400.096.927.01TT2.934111.93446328.598008194997.58185516954130.41512857587881162411227WETL
2023-11-12 19:00:03FORECAST20244712734.95219.8527.40123.30443660745500.166.917.07TT2.952111.95246328.756034807397.66147417248690.41598977211921624122214WETL
2023-11-12 15:00:02FORECAST20244712735.20420.8428.02223.19913103192800.156.97.05TT3.204113.20446328.684035583997.62518400961580.42808705592561624122214WETL
2023-11-12 11:00:03FORECAST20244712736.57224.69230.63223.3693478260800.036.926.95TT4.572117.57246328.800406124867.68385105608810.49464959404403162411227WETL
2023-11-12 07:00:06FORECAST20244712736.523.4529.97524.30376571373400.196.957.14TT4.5112.546329.438335531898.00659212388970.491126149557481624122214WETL
2023-11-12 03:00:06FORECAST20244712734.1620.94827.55424.63849114702500.167.097.25TT2.16112.1646329.666485336658.12248478043790.378534779892751624122214WETL
2023-11-11 23:00:03FORECAST20244712734.30418.66226.48318.69128837001200.018.358.36TT2.304109.30446325.58381948776.08558105865470.38527164587854162411227WETL
2023-11-11 19:00:03FORECAST20244712734.68218.01426.34819.93150097024200.188.468.64TT2.682109.68246326.440303850736.50644523292680.403116431288251624122214WETL
2023-11-11 15:00:03FORECAST20244712734.62823.55829.09319.28580814489300.18.438.53TT2.628109.62846325.994728436896.28707178888030.400553837925821624122214WETL
2023-11-11 11:00:04FORECAST20244712733.2620.17426.71724.22885407243400.138.518.64TT1.26109.2646329.387248975857.98067558875640.337333818073751624122214WETL
2023-11-11 07:00:07FORECAST20244712734.19619.36426.7824.13088650288500.058.718.76TT2.196110.19646329.320424586297.94679378877370.38021562964456162411227WETL
2023-11-11 03:00:05FORECAST20244712733.47621.70427.5924.87616223732600.328.428.74TT1.476101.47646329.828364903438.20486391580970.347067509651711624122214WETL
2023-11-10 23:00:03FORECAST20244712736.73425.59231.16322.25575270447700.158.949.09TT4.734104.73446328.038171924087.3007364319710.502578451602851634122216WETL
2023-11-10 19:00:03FORECAST20244712737.7625.10631.43321.89128695926400.178.879.04TT5.76110.7646327.788233556217.17570628264940.552641996455121634122216WETL
2023-11-10 15:00:03FORECAST20244712737.7626.11431.93721.40783272204900.188.788.96TT5.76109.7646327.456339657277.01013054315720.552641996455121634122216WETL
2023-11-10 11:00:03FORECAST20244712739.23629.80434.5221.453067519191008.788.78TT7.236117.23646327.48741087117.02560953710280.62302088321803163411228WETL
2023-11-10 07:00:05FORECAST20244712740.3730.95635.66321.033872177656008.788.78TT8.37118.3746327.199334060496.88226896924250.67456481873415163411228WETL
2023-11-10 03:00:08FORECAST20244712739.52430.90235.21324.7392168782950.342519870.822519878.889.70251987TT7.524122.52446329.735102321648.15738820872190.636364656545141634132224WETL
2023-11-09 23:00:03FORECAST20244712737.65226.632.12628.2713138279870.307086780.937086788.949.87708678TT5.652113.65246332.130190876479.38975685801820.547397614687041634132224WETL
2023-11-09 19:00:04FORECAST20244712737.77826.90632.34228.334826275630.307086780.977086788.939.90708678TT5.778114.77846332.173061833749.4120660005030.553515191276251634132224WETL
2023-11-09 15:00:04FORECAST20244712740.85631.31636.08623.60391665599900.388.58.88TT8.856117.85646328.960689208657.76476069118080.695738108386641634122216WETL
2023-11-09 11:00:04FORECAST20244712736.80628.4932.64828.06842483004601.188.419.59TT4.806118.80646331.993194283289.31852601782710.506102247540871634142232WETL
2023-11-09 07:00:05FORECAST20244712734.01626.16830.09229.33010716027801.178.549.71TT2.016109.01646332.843974710969.76234944592520.371834616040941624142228WETL
2023-11-09 03:00:06FORECAST20244712735.70825.66430.68630.05855301929301.358.489.83TT3.708109.70846333.3339418583410.0195359644790.452474215042451624141214WETL
2023-11-08 23:00:04FORECAST20244712739.54229.69634.61927.1578210923100.818.569.37TT7.542125.54246331.377457721738.99948971083140.637193369694181634132224WETL
2023-11-08 19:00:04FORECAST20244712736.82426.88831.85627.49237757595700.768.359.11TT4.824110.82446331.60384530429.11657812074240.5069831328711634132224WETL
2023-11-08 15:00:04FORECAST20244712736.08626.99631.54127.5697312959500.888.179.05TT4.086111.08646331.656161619919.14367125850710.470888210596391624132221WETL
2023-11-08 11:00:06FORECAST20244712739.61429.49834.55623.3023831137720.090551230.320551238.438.75055123TT7.614128.61446328.754630982737.66076636158620.640501769315261634122216WETL
2023-11-08 07:00:08FORECAST20244712741.37832.43236.90523.5069432431210.090551230.330551238.28.53055123TT9.378125.37846328.894437944157.73130288573130.717769796107511644122218WETL
2023-11-08 03:00:09FORECAST20244712738.69630.61434.65526.5395180915040.086614220.236614228.859.08661422TT6.696112.69646330.958557982298.78348063710910.597613038008081634122216WETL
2023-11-07 23:00:04FORECAST20244712734.9726.67230.82113.0901348218760.051181130.201181139.689.88118113TT2.9797.9746321.681905934684.2108595184430.416851371882941624123221WETL
2023-11-07 19:00:04FORECAST20244712735.83426.7831.30713.32666725441100.169.819.97TT3.834100.83446321.847805819754.28915861472210.458602842068821624123221WETL
2023-11-07 15:00:05FORECAST20244712739.12827.71633.42215.2897764916880.326771830.666771839.6210.28677183TT7.128113.12846323.220858106734.94197467790360.617977862945861634133236WETH
2023-11-07 11:00:06FORECAST20244712737.23828.7632.99910.9371081197210.074803190.154803198.899.04480319TT5.238114.23846320.167217502873.5017034742190.527225414328311634123224WETH
2023-11-07 07:00:07FORECAST20244712737.65227.06832.3610.6745119472360.062992160.142992168.939.07299216TT5.652110.65246319.98190953333.41565071621240.547397614687041634123224WETH
2023-11-07 03:00:08FORECAST20244712739.8322.0130.9217.4402971348950.011811030.911811039.3210.23181103TT7.83118.8346324.71715380045.66316364707650.650363118848461634132224WETL
2023-11-06 23:00:05FORECAST20244712727.73423.48625.6116.93856866372800.8110.2811.09TT-4.266103.73446324.368790298115.49434302683490.136110941790451614132218WETL
2023-11-06 19:00:06FORECAST20244712727.71622.96425.3418.39763763651400.8710.3811.25TT-4.28496.71646325.380630471315.98623493335160.13562885281821614132218WETL
2023-11-06 15:00:04FORECAST20244712737.52635.22236.37410.12083870313100.139.8910.02TT5.526116.52646319.590790016913.23452683676740.541268766521341634123224WETH
2023-11-06 11:00:04FORECAST20244712735.27633.7134.49315.28907284139300.399.7610.15TT3.276117.27646323.220367180024.94173973763710.43155639684541624123221WETH
2023-11-06 07:00:10FORECAST20244712735.3333.834.56513.49371214168200.49.7510.15TT3.33132.3346321.964908268514.34450179189830.434161886628831624123221WETH
2023-11-06 03:00:10FORECAST20244712729.85829.71429.78618.91667588252900.3110.6310.94TT-2.142108.85846325.739671605026.16191178983340.201241100277711614122212WETL