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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 19, 2023

[ Saturday, November 18, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, November 20, 2023 ]

DAY 50 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/20/2023 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.49°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.303
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 120

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.66 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.97 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.69 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.66 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 25 in
SWE DAY: 43
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 326.97 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 8.24 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 130

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 21.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-11-20 07:00:04OBSERVATION20245013031.6299222.4900627.0599925.1902383333330.660000000000080.970000000000085.696.6600000000001TT-0.37008119.6299243326.97108325301 8.23647951525150.3028680781753616 24132221WETL
2023-11-20 03:00:03OBSERVATION20245013031.6299222.4900627.0599925.1902383333330.660000000000080.970000000000085.696.6600000000001TT-0.37008119.6299243326.97108325301 8.23647951525150.3028680781753616 24132221WETL
2023-11-19 11:00:01FORECAST20245013028.0419.52623.78322.3750566086740.893701271.203701275.696.89370127TT-3.96116.0443325.026846441467.27249408846640.178790502356521614142224WETL
2023-11-19 07:00:05FORECAST20245013028.83220.78624.80921.2156206894010.712598811.022598815.696.71259881TT-3.168116.83243324.222059490986.8785722332970.203021754997251614142224WETL
2023-11-19 03:00:05FORECAST20245013028.54422.08225.31321.1005400882290.66929170.97929175.696.6692917TT-3.456116.54443324.142050442366.83957232963960.19399247554531614132218WETL
2023-11-18 23:00:02FORECAST20245013028.65221.09224.87222.1409026540970.799213031.159213035.696.84921303TT-3.348109.65243324.864506577217.19279341589740.197349463265811614142224WETL
2023-11-18 19:00:01FORECAST20245013028.77821.16424.97121.560308588130.657480671.017480675.696.70748067TT-3.222109.77843324.461561657316.99549139431810.201309950240731614142224WETL
2023-11-18 15:00:02FORECAST20245013028.43621.63225.03421.7995283995220.716535821.076535825.696.76653582TT-3.564109.43643324.627657395587.07672983666540.190670441060971614142224WETL
2023-11-18 11:00:02FORECAST20245013029.0321.09225.06122.782129032660.814961071.174961075.696.86496107TT-2.97110.0343325.308841635497.41122800560490.209372177426541614142224WETL
2023-11-18 07:00:04FORECAST20245013030.7421.14625.94322.5116733610390.771653961.161653965.696.85165396TT-1.26112.7443325.121518786437.31902943356480.268862630360471624142228WETL
2023-11-18 03:00:03FORECAST20245013028.8522.0125.4323.2147566811640.818898081.268898085.696.95889808TT-3.15109.8543325.608220513997.55891561261910.203594278561361614142224WETL
2023-11-17 23:00:02FORECAST20245013029.2122.22625.71826.1766016524770.960630441.440630445.697.13063044TT-2.7998.2143327.649008911298.57673758809970.215245268024851614142224WETL
2023-11-17 19:00:02FORECAST20245013028.6721.84825.25926.2199174916740.948819411.408819415.697.09881941TT-3.3397.6743327.678740892798.59170954998480.197912350406691614142224WETL
2023-11-17 15:00:02FORECAST20245013030.32622.42426.37524.5549130753190.692913761.122913765.696.81291376TT-1.674101.32643326.533525219348.01800232793840.253722749311321624142228WETL
2023-11-17 11:00:03FORECAST20245013031.78422.4627.12223.906758222880.767716951.237716955.696.92771695TT-0.216103.78443326.086403025287.79566879689370.308945742219491624142228WETL
2023-11-17 07:00:06FORECAST20245013030.79424.02627.4125.1604252284030.968504461.518504465.697.20850446TT-1.206103.79443326.950566306348.22621527693470.27087028368661624152235WETL
2023-11-17 03:00:07FORECAST20245013029.49824.78227.1425.8517532474450.996063531.476063535.697.16606353TT-2.50298.49843327.425928757898.46453431706450.224838005746391614142224WETL
2023-11-16 23:00:02FORECAST20245013030.75822.35226.55525.0606213600330.649606651.179606655.686.85960665TT-1.24298.75843326.881871423478.19186280920260.269531018098371624142228WETL
2023-11-16 19:00:03FORECAST20245013030.93821.8326.38425.277110356890.783464991.353464995.687.03346499TT-1.062101.93843327.030858461748.26639509944590.276260294399751624142228WETL
2023-11-16 15:00:02FORECAST20245013028.88622.94625.91626.3895318966710.988189511.548189515.687.22818951TT-3.11496.88643327.795132700938.65036010998460.204742204296961614152230WETL
2023-11-16 11:00:03FORECAST20245013029.35422.65826.00625.5453417706560.744094891.464094895.687.14409489TT-2.646100.35443327.215340866428.35882771503440.220011696918161614142224WETL
2023-11-16 03:00:06FORECAST20245013027.57222.2824.92624.3118230852750.570866451.300866455.686.98086645TT-4.42896.57243326.365918637377.93455047497510.165364446269571614142224WETL
2023-11-15 23:00:02FORECAST20245013027.08621.45224.26924.4915260414760.385826981.165826985.857.01582698TT-4.91491.08643326.489830867547.99623419496920.152129717283521614142224WETL
2023-11-15 19:00:02FORECAST20245013026.36619.97623.17125.5478257379630.421260071.201260075.857.05126007TT-5.63491.36643327.217048685518.35968413830790.1338472221691614142224WETL
2023-11-15 15:00:03FORECAST20245013027.30221.45224.37725.7809269218620.543307381.213307385.857.06330738TT-4.69891.30243327.377266401918.44008938098650.157922697287391614142224WETL
2023-11-15 11:00:04FORECAST20245013025.86218.35622.10926.5695843508830.527559341.327559345.857.17755934TT-6.13884.86243327.918632390928.71266176353660.121982771576191614142224WETL
2023-11-15 07:00:04FORECAST20245013026.16819.9423.05426.6518557756660.566929441.326929445.867.18692944TT-5.83288.16843327.975044346048.74114357992820.129095158267391614142224WETL
2023-11-15 03:00:07FORECAST20245013025.14220.22822.68527.5285065898730.539370371.369370375.937.29937037TT-6.85883.14243328.575415704279.04519049648530.106342603564421614142224WETL
2023-11-14 23:00:03FORECAST20245013029.9321.88425.90729.0381313069760.795276021.055276025.86.85527602TT-2.0781.9343329.606149080649.57114663659020.239670770621641614142224WETL
2023-11-14 19:00:03FORECAST20245013028.72421.2925.00729.3169538556270.771653961.051653965.826.87165396TT-3.27682.72443329.7960900079.66861675250160.19960680922261614142224WETL
2023-11-14 15:00:04FORECAST20245013031.76625.6128.68827.618453502960.704724791.014724795.826.83472479TT-0.23491.76643328.636939959969.07644404563920.308232988902841624142228WETL
2023-11-14 11:00:04FORECAST20245013032.79226.54629.66928.7720494717280.976378481.416378485.767.17637848TT0.79296.79243329.424761967099.47822554852930.349940919507621624142228WETL
2023-11-14 07:00:06FORECAST20245013031.08226.7828.93128.0100949768980.964567451.394567455.757.14456745TT-0.91898.08243328.904661414889.21265080457530.281702343556651624142228WETL
2023-11-14 03:00:06FORECAST20245013030.27225.64627.95928.2034137320780.877953231.427953235.77.12795323TT-1.72889.27243329.036713675229.27995856882550.251781467544221624142228WETL
2023-11-13 23:00:03FORECAST20245013028.09422.08225.08827.0654811095890.444882131.154882135.917.06488213TT-3.90683.09443328.258480841388.88447371227490.180382548286421614142224WETL
2023-11-13 19:00:03FORECAST20245013027.78820.324.04428.0031206843140.456693161.146693165.897.03669316TT-4.21275.78843328.89989620019.21022348634970.171478152339371614142224WETL
2023-11-13 15:00:03FORECAST20245013027.69816.41222.05527.2854758120260.350393891.030393895.896.92039389TT-4.30271.69843328.409110805138.96079884932230.1689134735021614142224WETL
2023-11-13 11:00:06FORECAST20245013026.45619.25622.85629.3219457809640.299212760.929212765.896.81921276TT-5.54465.45643329.799489406399.67036274696380.136046397000761614132218WETL
2023-11-13 07:00:08FORECAST20245013027.33820.76824.05329.3191096532060.326771831.006771835.886.88677183TT-4.66275.33843329.797558066499.6693707683110.158902057488371614142224WETL
2023-11-13 03:00:08FORECAST20245013027.30221.52424.41328.3425851295880.456693160.966693165.796.75669316TT-4.69875.30243329.131738800179.3284443257930.157922697287391614132218WETL
2023-11-12 23:00:04FORECAST20245013027.5921.224.39526.5360564607410.31496080.88496086.227.1049608TT-4.4172.5943327.895639571588.70105720490210.165868482502821614132218WETL
2023-11-12 19:00:04FORECAST20245013026.09619.50822.80228.07551866480.334645850.924645856.287.20464585TT-5.90468.09643328.949358315389.23542384915740.127396406745011614132218WETL
2023-11-12 15:00:03FORECAST20245013028.16623.39625.78128.6324578770850.51181131.21181136.267.4718113TT-3.83472.16643329.32955379759.4295145767860.182519032199161614142224WETL
2023-11-12 11:00:04FORECAST20245013028.20224.85426.52828.5376029481710.574803461.174803466.167.33480346TT-3.79878.20243329.26483891629.3964292377840.183593162823211614142224WETL
2023-11-12 07:00:07FORECAST20245013027.73424.60226.16829.7060636272250.555118411.225118416.357.57511841TT-4.26670.73443330.060936608369.80481118374910.169936380654991614142224WETL
2023-11-12 03:00:07FORECAST20245013030.36225.08827.72530.1391445113630.437008111.187008116.467.64700811TT-1.63873.36243330.355404402729.95662927340330.255021283866811624142228WETL
2023-11-11 23:00:03FORECAST20245013027.71622.6425.17822.2850914105010.413386051.183386057.578.75338605TT-4.28468.71643324.96448463477.24186324525050.169424432888351614142224WETL
2023-11-11 19:00:04FORECAST20245013027.80623.30625.55625.8087863400290.397638011.107638017.858.95763801TT-4.19470.80643327.396408703768.4497039607280.171994051687831614142224WETL
2023-11-11 15:00:04FORECAST20245013030.95619.97625.46620.2950022095880.208661530.768661537.748.50866153TT-1.04477.95643323.58135013226.56708421591440.276937723511781624132221WETL
2023-11-11 11:00:05FORECAST20245013025.48416.53821.01127.6661914078390.125984320.705984327.858.55598432TT-6.51664.48443328.669587278659.09303571158670.113581749709341614132218WETL
2023-11-11 07:00:08FORECAST20245013025.7920.69623.24327.3700889524040.129921330.679921337.978.64992133TT-6.2167.7943328.467022856668.9901716335180.120349924809041614132218WETL
2023-11-11 03:00:06FORECAST20245013025.62820.26422.94627.62927566872700.587.958.53TT-6.37254.62843328.644341442299.08020510667640.116732302023911614132218WETL
2023-11-10 23:00:04FORECAST20245013028.34621.18224.76426.14501580457800.688.38.98TT-3.65461.34643327.627326330518.56582162492290.187928866048241614132218WETL
2023-11-10 19:00:04FORECAST20245013033.6224.42229.02125.13864774401400.718.258.96TT1.6272.6243326.935578375288.21871833976170.385004063063921624132221WETL
2023-11-10 15:00:03FORECAST20245013035.83423.88229.85824.3002743779740.023622060.653622068.178.82362206TT3.83473.83443326.357953416777.93058781346140.482697818692251624132221WETL
2023-11-10 11:00:04FORECAST20245013037.38217.97827.6829.7981186006651.232284131.932284137.999.92228413TT5.38280.38243330.123555318719.83706085426010.551993654434411634152240WETL
2023-11-10 07:00:06FORECAST20245013037.05819.86828.46332.670906219491.232284131.952284137.999.94228413TT5.05882.05843332.0703765510310.849040130570.537550199285781634151220WETL
2023-11-10 03:00:08FORECAST20245013043.30425.37634.3433.7767814858131.114173834.474173838.9113.38417383TT11.30492.30443332.8160238181211.2414541114820.787195056432731644151222.5WETL
2023-11-09 23:00:04FORECAST20245013035.0624.09829.57942.3987018874720.122047313.072047319.0912.16204731TT3.0674.0643338.558172399114.3544270231170.448114864917711624151217.5WETL
2023-11-09 19:00:04FORECAST20245013035.00622.62228.81439.3786716875630.110236282.940236289.1212.06023628TT3.00675.00643336.5611435257613.2533307736910.445713697115451624151217.5WETL
2023-11-09 15:00:05FORECAST20245013040.96431.62236.29324.5498512432820.133858341.653858348.099.74385834TT8.96490.96443326.530036223668.01626381575430.703166397625721644152245WETL
2023-11-09 11:00:04FORECAST20245013039.27233.3536.31132.7465510291602.068.810.86TT7.27294.27243332.1214475679610.8758319306630.634292856373571634151220WETL
2023-11-09 07:00:06FORECAST20245013033.02627.42830.22744.01729141574302.158.9211.07TT1.02669.02643339.6221943223514.9492490987410.359736004072391624151217.5WETL
2023-11-09 03:00:06FORECAST20245013033.6232.79233.20636.9549472605560.066929170.956929179.049.99692917TT1.6269.6243334.9473110763812.3779602158930.385004063063921624131210.5WETL